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Using freezing temperatures to claim global warming is a hoax

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News that the Sun will impact temperatures in the 2030’s doesn’t disprove global warming climate change created by human pollution…

Now it looks like we’re in for an ice-age

The Earth is 15 years from a “mini ice-age” that will cause bitterly cold winters during which rivers such as England’s Thames will freeze over, scientists have predicted.

Solar researchers at the University of Northumbria have created a new model of the Sun’s activity which they claim gives “unprecedentedly accurate predictions”.

…there are three things that impact the climate, two of those things have been responsible for catastrophic climate change in the past, the third will do it in the future.

The two things that impact climate on Earth are the heat of the Sun and the tilt of the planet on its axis as it spins around the Sun. The heat of the Sun (best exampled during the mini-ice age in the 17th Century when the Thames famously froze over) and the Milankovitch cycles (its effects are felt over hundreds of thousands of years and impacted carbon in the atmosphere as vast vegetation die offs occurred between Summer and Winter).

The third thing that can change climate is the pollution we as a species have made. What the science tells us is that since the Industrial revolution, the carbon we have pumped into the air has occurred at a speed that solar cycles and Milankovitch cycles could not generate naturally. It would take hundreds of thousands of years to build those levels up, we’ve done it in a couple of hundred years.

That’s incredibly dangerous because these naturally generated climate change moments once they reach tipping point, occur within a decade. That’s going from incredibly hot to incredibly cold in the space of 10 years. That’s what causes mass extinctions, the inability of most life forms to be able to adapt to the speed of change.

To try and claim the latest predictions of a mini ice age because of solar minimisation somehow discredits all the science pointing to global warming, as Cameron Slater and a other climate deniers are trying to claim today, means that these people are either

a) Wilfully ignorant of the science.

b) So culturally welded to the need to disagree with environments they refuse to agree.

c) Paid members of the oil industry.

What is important to point out here is that global warming will lead to an ice age. Global warming creates extremes, the planet dangerously warms, that thaws the gigatonnes of frozen methane on the ocean floor and Siberia which punches the temperature up suddenly, that heat melts all the ice, the release of all that fresh water into the ocean leads to desalination which shuts down the ocean conveyor current which stops the transfer of heat from the equator north which in turn freezes the Northern hemisphere over which plunges the planet into a deep ice age.

All the solar minimisation does is maybe buy the planet some extra time, but if emissions continue to rise, that extra time won’t mean anything.

None of what has been released today alleviates the dangerous climate position we are currently in.

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TABLE TALK 4 – 7.15pm tonight live from IKA – What is NZ doing in Iraq & Afghanistan?

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IKA Seafood Bar & Grill + Voyager + The Daily Blog present
Table Talk 4: NZ at War – where are we and what are we doing there?

IKA – 3 Mt Eden Rd, 7.15 pm – doors open 5 pm. This event is booked out but there will be space at the bar for those who get in early enough and the entire debate will be live streamed on The Daily Blog from 7.15pm and then available on demand afterwards.

 

Join TV3 news anchor Mike McRoberts and Journalist Paula Penfold for Table Talk 4 – What is NZ doing in Iraq & Afghanistan?

The panel will include

-Jon Stephenson – Investigative Journalist and war correspondent 
-Tayyaba Khan – General Manager of Changemakers Refugee Forum
-Keith Locke – Former Green MP and Peace Activist

With guest tweeter Sacha Dylan live tweeting the event

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The FIRE Economy

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How would New Zealanders respond if we faced a crisis of the magnitude confronting Greece today? Or that of Iceland or Ireland in 2009, or Argentina in the early 2000s? That question is at the heart of my new book, The FIRE Economy. New Zealand’s Reckoning, published today by Bridget Williams Books.

There is a terrible complacency in this country that ‘it couldn’t happen here’. After all, aren’t we a ‘rock star economy’?  No one really believes that, unless they have vested interests in talking up the failing status quo. But it is the kind of fiction that sedates the majority of people and avoids confronting unpalatable realities.

The triggers of a crisis in Aotearoa New Zealand would be different from those in Greece, but our massive levels private – not public – debt in banks and households, and the massively inflated rural and Auckland property markets, mean we are prime candidates for a meltdown.

We have a chronically sick economy. The only way to make money is to borrow money to invest in the FIRE economy, where the creation of wealth is centred on finance, insurance and real estate. Real jobs, real production, ethical values, commitment to community – scarce at the best of times in a capitalist economy – are treated as relics of history.  Shareholder capitalism means maximising short-term returns, while running down the business, exploiting workers, hollowing out the economy and the community.

Researchers from the IMF – yes, there are dissident voices inside the IMF, alongside the reactionaries – have a checklist of triggers for recent crises. Four have been common causes since the 1970s:

  • A credit boom and rapid financial expansion;
  • Rapidly rising asset prices, especially housing;
  • Financial ‘innovations’ that rely on favourable economic conditions; and
  • Financial liberalisation and innovation.

Four were new to the GFC:

  • A sharp rise in household debt and defaults;
  • High leverage backed by illiquid assets;
  • The growth of complex derivatives in the shadow banking system; and
  • The depth of international financial integration.

New Zealand ticks almost every box.

As things stand, we would be lambs to the slaughter on the altar of austerity. Why is our economy so vulnerable? How have we become one of the most indebted affluent countries in the world?  Why have successive governments run down the productive economy and made us dependent on an economy of FIRE? Does it have to be like that? What are the barriers that lock us into that regime, and obstacles do they pose to a progressive post-neoliberal transformation?

Antonio Gramsci wrote from his prison cell, when observing the turmoil that enveloped Mussolini’s fascist regime, that when the old system is dying and the new is yet to be born, morbid symptoms of crisis appear. Change brews over years, even decades. The interregnum creates opportunities, but there will be resistance and forces that take hold can be regressive or progressive. We need to shape that future.

Waiting for Armageddon is hardly a progressive strategy. It makes much more sense for us to confront our challenges now and begin to shape a progressive alternative than to battle over models in the midst of a crisis. We will be caught up in whatever dynamics are unfolding offshore, but we can be part of a progressive movement that aims to achieve a post-neoliberal transformation.

In The FIRE Economy I argue that paradigm change cannot be conceived of piecemeal.The book sets out six pre-requisites to a progressive post-neoliberal er and the barriers we need to confront to achieve them: a new socially just economic model; momentum around an alternative ideological orthodoxy and ethical platform; rethinking and reconstructing an active and democratically accountable state; dismantling and reframing the policy and regulatory paradigm of neoliberalism; the political will to embark on radical change; and popular demand, backed by a sense of urgency, for transformation.

 

The launch for this book is here tonight.

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Another ‘Claytons’ Solution to our Housing Problem? When will NZers ever learn?

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Like a rolling juggernaut, our housing crisis has rolled over National, crushing it’s Dear Leader’s protestations that  no problem exists in our country;

“No, I don’t think you can call it a crisis. What you can say though is that Auckland house prices have been rising, and rising too quickly actually.” – John Key, 13 April 2015

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John Key no housing crisis in Auckland

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Phil Twyford’s appearance on TV3’s ‘The Nation‘ on 11 July has finally put the problem of foreign ownership of property into a context that even the most dumbed-down, Reality-TV-watching New Zealander could understand.

It is mind-numbingly simple: with the most liberal foreign ownership laws in the world, foreign investors are pouring billions into our housing (and agricultural sector), hoping to make tax-free gains. In the process, prices are pushed up, out of reach of young, first-home buyers.

As I wrote on 11 July;

Our parents and grandparents never had to compete with buyers from Berlin, Beijing, or Boston. So it baffles me why we have saddled our children with this colossal hurdle. The only reasons that come to mind is greed and a misguided ideolological view of an unfettered right to sell to whomever.

Some are now proposing a “solution” to this mounting problem. BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander suggests;

“We should as soon as possible adopt Australia’s rules restricting foreign buying of anything other than new housing unless resident for 12 months.”

This is a “Clayton’s Solution” and merely shifts the problem from existing properties to new properties being built. It beggars belief how any seemingly well-educated, intelligent person can proffer this as a “solution”.

How is it a “solution” when, for example, 1,800 new homes are permitted to be snapped up by overseas investors, and in the process side-lining first-home buyers;

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Up to 1800 new homes for Auckland

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This is not a “solution”. This is more of the same stupidity that has allowed our country to find itself in this mess in the first place.

Allowing foreign investors to buy new homes instead of existing homes simply transfers pressure on to new developments. It will also inevitably put pressure on existing, older homes being bought up by developers; demolished; and replaced by new houses or apartments. Consequence: Restriction avoided.

There is only one, clear, guaranteed way to stop our housing stock from becoming more and more the privilege of offshore investors:

1. Ban all sales of land to non-NZ residents or citizens. No exceptions.

Other policies that should also be enacted immediatly;

2. Implement an immediate stock-take of land-ownership, both agricultural and residential properties, so we know precisely how far the problem extends.

3. Implement a Capital Gains Tax on all properties (including the family home if sold within, say, five years).

4. Implement a law that foreign land owners are allowed to on-sell only to New Zealand permanent residents or citizens.

Half-measures such as National’s requirement for foreign investors to acquire an IRD number and bank account, or Tony Alexander’s naive suggestion will not do. The problem will continue to grow.

This is not ‘xenophobia’ or any other label bandied about by misguided individuals from the Left or Right. This is a matter of economic common sense.

I have no problem with citizens from Berlin, Boston, or Beijing wanting to buy New Zealand farms, houses, businesses, etc.

Just take up Permanent Residency or Citizenship first.

Sorted.

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References

Radio NZ: Key denies Auckland housing crisis

TV3: The Nation – Interview – Labour’s housing spokesman Phil Twyford

NZ Herald:  Auckland’s property crisis – Foreigners should build, not buy – economist

Radio NZ: Up to 1800 new homes for Auckland


 

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Malcolm Evans – surnames

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The Daily Blog Open Mic Tuesday 14th July 2015

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Announce protest actions, general chit chat or give your opinion on issues we haven’t covered for the day.

Moderation rules are more lenient for this section, but try and play nicely.

 

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Insulation only half the answer to damp housing problems, CHA says

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The new regulation framework proposed by Government for rental properties is better than the status quo but does not go far enough, says Community Housing Aotearoa (CHA), the spokes body for the community housing sector, .

Director Scott Figenshow says insulation and fire alarms are very important and CHA applauds the Government for taking this step.

“But insulation is only half of the answer- you still need to heat the house.”

Under plans to strengthen the Residential Tenancies Act, all tenanted properties will require floor and ceiling insulation by mid-2019, while social housing which receives government subsidies will require insulation by July next year. All rentals will also need to have long-life smoke alarms installed.

Scott Figenshow says CHA wants to see effective and efficient heating that families can afford to operate included in the regulations.

“The tenancies provided by community housing providers already exceed these new regulations. Regulation is accepted as necessary by the sector for the operation of social and affordable housing markets,” he says.

Community housing organisations are home to more than 15,000 New Zealanders and CHA believes that “housing is the centre of the jigsaw – if we can fix this we can fix a host of other social problems.”

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The Flag Referendum – A strategy for Calm Resistance

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Richard Aslett’s “eNZign”

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When John Key referred to a referendum as “… a complete and utter waste of money because it’s just about sending a message”, he was not referring to his much-beloved pet-project, the $29 million flag referendum.

He was, in fact, deriding the $9 million asset sale referendum held two years ago, and which resulted in a decisive 67.2% of 1.3 million New Zealanders voting against the government’s asset sales programme. Key was bluntly dismissive of  the asset sales referendum;

“Overall what it basically shows, it was pretty much a political stunt.”

Charming.

Key’s $29 million dollar white-elephant project receives his personal blessing and whole-hearted endorsement;

“In the end you have to say, what price do you put on democracy where people can genuinely have their say on a matter that is actually important? … This is a cost essentially of one of the values that New Zealanders would want to test.

Yes, it’s a one-off cost, but my view would be that if the flag doesn’t change as a result of this referendum process, then it won’t be changing for a good 50 to 100 years, so this is a cost we have to bear.”

– whereas a preceding referenda on a critical economic/political policy was dismissed as irrelevent in the Prime Minister’s grand scheme of things.

Nothing better illustrates the deep contempt which John Key holds the public and democracy than his inconsistent attitudes on these two referenda.

If New Zealanders want to send our esteemed Dear Leader a definitive message, they might recall the decisive message they sent to  the National-NZ First Coalition government in 1997, where  92% rejected Winston Peters’ superannuation scheme.

I offer the following strategy for those voters who are opposed to this referendum;

1.

The referendum will be carried out in two parts. The first part will be a referendum held in November-December this year to determine which alternative people might prefer;

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flag referendum stage one

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This is the ballot paper to spoil by writing over it your opposition to this referendum. In a written piece entitled “Winston Flags Referendum For Protest“, fellow blogger Curwen Rolinson suggests writing “I support the current flag” on your ballot paper. Or you can create your own appropriate message.

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The second part of the referendum will be held in March next year. This will be the run-off between our  current ‘Stars’n’Jack‘, and an alternative selected from Step 1.

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flag referendum stage two

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This step must not be spoiled. A clear message can still be sent to our esteemed Dear Leader by voting for the status quo, to keep the current flag.

If the alternative is defeated, and the incumbent flag is maintained as the preferred choice, John Key will have been shown to have engaged in a vanity project, and wasting $29 million dollars of taxpayers money in the process.

By this simple strategy, we, the people,  can show the same scorn to Key’s  pet-project as he did to the asset sales referendum in 2013.

Addendum1

Alternative Option 2: If Richard Aslett’s “eNZign” design (see top of page) is selected as the alternative for the March 2016 referendum (highly, highly unlikely) – vote for it. What better “legacy” for Key’s prime ministership than something that looks like the product of an LSD-induced trip?

So not only will $29 million have been wasted, but a “trippy” flag will have been chosen that takes New Zealand back to the psychedelic 1960s.

What better way to give Key the one-fingered salute?

Addendum2

Meanwhile, John Oliver shared his brilliant insights into the flag debate;

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John oliver new zealand flag referendum

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References

Otago Daily Times: Asset sales referendum ‘waste of money’

Fairfax media: Asset sales programme to continue – Key

NZ Herald: John Key defends cost of flag referendums

NZ Govt: Flag Consideration Panel – The flag consideration process

Youtube: John Oliver – New Zealand’s New Flag

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The Pencilsword Flagpole blues

Acknowledgement: Toby Morris, ‘The Wireless

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Dissident Solutions: What’s happening to Nicky Hager?

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MARTYN BRADBURY’S LATEST POSTING on The Daily Blog should give every member of the democratic public serious pause. The allegations levelled at the NZ Police are serious and deeply concerning. It is very difficult, having read Martyn’s post, to avoid the conclusion that Nicky Hager may be the victim of deliberate political persecution, and that among the principal agents of that persecution may be members of the NZ Police Force.

With the specifics of the actions taken against Mr Hager forming a significant part of active legal proceedings, it would be improper to rehearse them on The Daily Blog. What can be examined, however, is the enormous risk posed to the integrity of our democratic institutions by the merest suspicion that senior politicians, senior civil servants, senior policemen and senior jurists might be involved in an effort to both frighten and silence what used to be called, back in the days of the Cold War, “political dissidents”.

What distinguishes the “political dissident” from the more familiar “political activist” is their specificity. Activists may give public voice to generalised complaints against individuals and institutions, but dissidents sharpen such complaints by supplying the public with hard evidence of specific wrong-doing – often supplied to them by a whistleblower or, in Mr Hager’s case, a hacker. Alternatively, the evidence may simply have been uncovered by applying the techniques of good, old-fashioned, investigative journalism.

Liberal democracies have very little to fear from activists. Objections to government policy and/or corporate behaviour based on political ideology or religious belief constitute no real threat to the smooth unfolding of long-prepared strategies and plans. After all, the actions of powerful institutions – be they public or private – are almost always undertaken within the law and are, therefore, extremely difficult to stop. Indeed, it is only when the placard-waving (but otherwise ineffective) activists avail themselves of a lawyer or two that they graduate to dissident status – at least in the eyes of their opponents.

Lawyers, like the best investigative journalists, have ways of extracting information the powers-that-be would rather they, their clients, and/or the general public, didn’t see. In the hands of a good team of lawyers, legal discovery can be an immensely powerful weapon. The constitutional separation of powers means that the Judiciary can require the Executive Branch of Government, or a private corporation, to divulge all manner of secret material. Discovery cuts both ways, however, so those who go after the secrets of the powerful must be prepared for the powerful to come after theirs.

But if lawyers pose a genuine threat to the secret dealings of the powerful, they are also extremely hazardous to their client’s bank balance. This enables the State, by dint of having its very own “law firm” – Crown Law – and a practically inexhaustible supply of funds, to adopt a strategy of litigation attrition. By extending and multiplying the mechanisms of the Law, the Crown is frequently able to wear down or financially exhaust its opponents. If an out-of-court settlement is arrived at by the contending parties it will almost always contain a comprehensive confidentiality clause. The dissident and his or her lawyers may “win” their case, but the State’s secrets remain just that – secrets.

What truly terrifies the wielders of public and private power are processes of “discovery” that owe nothing to the operation of the courts. Edward Snowden was able to use his privileged access to the secrets of the United States’ National Security Agency, to expose its highly questionable (and in some cases illegal) activities to the whole world. The specificity of the information he released (that the US eavesdropped on the conversations of the German Chancellor, for example) produced the most acute diplomatic embarrassment. Likewise his detailed description of the architecture of mass surveillance.

Nicky Hager’s book, Dirty Politics, delivered an equally destructive blow to the secret world of right-wing influence peddling and political character assassination. The hitherto unseen architecture of political manipulation in New Zealand was laid bare in a way that caught the subjects of Mr Hager’s investigation completely off-guard. It was the same with his earlier publications: Secret PowerSecrets and LiesSeeds of DistrustThe Hollow Men and Other People’s Wars. In every case those under scrutiny had no idea that their activities were about to be exposed.

This “ambush” strategy has been criticised by Mr Hager’s opponents as unethical and contrary to the “rules of good journalism”. What it achieves, however, is the unimpeded distribution of his publications. Had the subjects of Mr Hager’s investigations been alerted to the fact that a book was in preparation, or, about to be published, it is highly likely that they would have attempted to legally injunct its release. Rather than offer his subjects the traditional right-of-reply, therefore, Mr Hager exhaustively checks and re-checks his facts to ensure that there is no possibility of legal restraint. That he has never been successfully sued bears testimony to the thoroughness of this pre-publication scrutiny.

What does a government “do” about a dissident of such consistent effectiveness as Nicky Hager? How reassuring it would be if we could answer, simply, that the powers-that-be, both public and private, redouble their efforts to conduct themselves ethically and openly. The revelations contained in Martyn Bradbury’s blogpost, however, strongly suggest that their reaction has been very different.

It’s as if someone, somewhere, has echoed the anguished cry of King Henry II.

When confronted with further evidence of the Archbishop of Canterbury’s, Thomas Becket’s, political and religious defiance, Henry bellowed: “Will no one rid me of this troublesome priest!” Did Henry know that four of his knights had taken him at his word and were on their way to slay the Archbishop before his altar? We shall never know. He always claimed ignorance of his men-at-arms’ intent, and did penance for the crime his words inspired. At the end of the day, however, his problem had, actually, been solved.

Rogue elements in the Police Force? Or a carefully devised plan to bring down a dissident? Either way, the outlook for the democratic public is grim.

 

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Disappointment as Westpac closes Ruatorea branch

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Disappointment as Westpac closes Ruatorea branch

After a spirited campaign to save Westpac Ruatorea, bank bosses have ignored the community and confirmed that the Ruatorea branch will close says FIRST Union national organiser Tali Williams.

“Westpac ignored the community. Over 3000 people signed the petition to save Westpac Ruatorea, over 100 locals turned out to discuss the proposal at a town hall meeting and many more have made their views heard through social media.”

“Bank bosses claim the decision was made off the back of declining transactions, but when we asked how many transactions would be needed to keep the branch open they didn’t know. The local community was never given the information it needed to help save its last bank,” says Williams.

“Westpac could have taken a pro-active approach to the Ruatorea branch, looking to grow business rather than quietly withdrawing from the region. We suggested this as an alternative strategy, the community even offered a co-location proposal with a local business, but Westpac wasn’t interested.”

“The branch workers themselves are gutted. This wasn’t just a job for them, it was a community service,” says Williams.

FIRST Union strongly opposed the closure in its submission.

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Chinese sounding name data may be politically motivated xenophobia, but there is an issue of Chinese influence in NZ

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Being lectured on divisiveness and racism by the National Party is like taking fire safety tips from an arsonist.

Cough, cough. Don Brash anyone?

Beyond the obvious politically motivated xenophobia of naming Chinese buyers as the issue, Labour have struck a deep chord with middle New Zealand.

Which it should.

How waka Aotearoa juggles two Pacific giants like America and China are the two big issues right now. America wants the ability to dictate domestic law for their corporations benefit through the TPPA and China has listed NZ as a country where residential speculation is State sanctioned. To these ends the Communist Party has invested hugely into the National Party...

There are real question marks over the economic and political influence of China. They are our biggest market now meaning our economic well being is locked into place by Beijing. This influence carry’s over to our Political institutions. Jenny Shipley, Don Brash, Ruth Richardson and Chris Tremain are Director’s of the China Construction Bank, Judith Collins interaction with Chinese Officials to help her hubbies Chinese Company, Oravida, to gain more Chinese money is now a thing of legend, and Maurice Williamson’s love affair with  Donghua Liu saw him become Liu’s personal handyman when doing up Liu’s batch and heavying the Police to drop domestic violence charges.

The National Government are as dependent on their Chinese friends as the entire economy now has become.

Key has put all our cows in Beijing.

…the National Party need property speculation into Auckland to keep the pretence of economic growth alive so have no interest whatsoever of seriously cracking down on any foreign speculation, and certainly not from a country who they are so personally benefited  by.

Whether that issue gets discussed will be down to how much the media decide to make this a debate about racism.

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LATEST FROM HAGER CASE: Police maliciously damage Nicky Hager’s credit rating

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…not many NZers are aware that the NZ Police will hit up banks for details on people they are investigating and the banks will hand it over without even informing you AND by the simple fact that the Police are investigating you, the banks will then reduce your credit rating without you even being told.

This is what happens when an investigative Journalist prints emails that disclose the immoral (and arguably criminal) acts of Mr Slater, public relations agents, and members of the governing National Party.

NZers should start feeling terribly nervous about the manner in which the Police are acting as agents of the Government’s political interests.

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The Standard to lay a Police Complaint for Cameron Slater paying a hacker to hack blog

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As Nicky Hager fights the Police raiding his home, you can keep up to date with Jon Stephenson live tweeting it on The Evening Report...

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…sounds like the NZ Police are about to get a beating from the Judiciary.

While that is happening the editor of The Standard, Lynn Prentice is today laying a complaint with the Police against Cameron Slater paying a hacker to hack The Standard

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…this would come on top of the Police investigation into Slater that Ben Rachinger laid and on top of the defamation action currently against him.

Not a good day for Slater or the Cops.

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White NZers cheer at auctions when Chinese bidders lose – why Labour’s dog whistling will pay off

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I was talking with a real estate agent over the weekend, asking him what his opinion of Labour’s assertion that it is foreign Chinese speculators buying up Auckland’s property.

He was certain that it was true.

I then asked him what was the response from white or Maori at these sales, if he had noticed any resentment from some at these auctions, and that’s when his answer really surprised me.

He said at his last auction, when a Chinese bidder was out-bid by a white bidder, the other non-asian bidders burst out cheering.

I think a new friction point which is only going to get more media attention, will be auctions where angry locals are being out bid by asian buyers.

Whether these buyers are foreign speculators or NZ residents, the level of resentment  being generated at the coal face of Auckland’s housing market is ripe for political posturing and Labour’s ‘who are the Chinese speculators in your neighbourhood’ whistled tune over the weekend is very likely to appeal to a voting group who for the first time in 7 years will be hearing Labour say something they think as ‘finally someone is saying something about this’.

Sure the data is scapegoating without the firmness to do so, but the message will have resonance because there are genuine issues of Chinese influence on NZ economy and political system.

That so many high ranking National Party MP’s seem to have defacto Communist Party membership is an irony beyond ironies, so beyond Labour believing that Chinese-NZers don’t vote Labour anyway, there is an issue here and Labour are exploiting it.

 

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The slow dismantling of a populist prime minister

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It’s been a source of frustration and a mystery akin to flying saucers, Loch Ness Monster, Yeti, Bermuda Triangle, etc. I refer, of course, to the unfeasibly high popularity of our esteemed Dear Leader, John Key.

Every time a scandal strikes this government (and there have been so many, I’ve lost count); every time it implements unpopular policies such as asset sales or expanding the powers of the GCSB; every time it fails to balance the budget despite numerous promises; every time it breaks election promises such as not raising GST, not interfering with Kiwisaver, bringing agriculture into the ETS, raising wages comparable to Australia; and as  housing  becomes an ulcerated sore in our cities – Key’s popularity apparently remains undented.

Recently, over a period of months, he was even found to have been assaulting a female staff member at an Auckland cafe;

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EXCLUSIVE The Prime Minister and the Waitress - ponytail pulling - Amanda Bailey - John Key

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– and he survived that humiliating experience, his political career apparently intact. His apolitical “blokeyness” seems to have pulled his backside out of the fire, yet again.

But is his popularity as consistently high as we think it is?

Actually – no.

Since 2009, when Key’s “Preferred Prime Minister” (PPM) rating stood at 55.8% on 3News-Reid Research polling, it has been trending down ever since;

Oct/Nov 08: 36.4%

(Source)

Feb 2009: 52.1%

April 2009: 51.1%

Aug 2009: 51.6%

Oct 2009: 55.8%

Feb 2010: 49.4%

April 2010: 49.0%

June 2010: 49.6%

Jul/Aug 2010: 48.7%

Sept/Oct 2010: 50.6%

Nov/Dec 2010: 54.1%

Feb 2011: 49.1%

April 2011: 52.4%

May 2011: 48.2%

Jun/Jul 2011: 50.5%

Aug 2011: 53.3%

Sept 2011: 54.5%

Oct 2011: 52.7%

1-8 Nov 2011: 50.0%

9-16 Nov 2011: 49.4%

16-23 Nov 2011: 48.9%

Feb 2012: 45.8%

April 2012: 44.2%

May/Jun 2012: 40.5%

July: 43.2%

(Source)

Feb 2013: 41.0%

April 2013: 38.0%

May 2013: 41.0%

Jul 2013: 42.0%

Nov 2013: 40.9%

Jan 2014: 38.9%

Mar 2014: 42.6%

May 2014: 43.1%

Jun 2014: 46.7%

Jul 2014: 43.8%

5-3 Aug 2014: 44.1%

19-25 Aug 2014: 41.4%

26 Aug-1 Sept 2014: 45.1%

2-8 Sept 2014: 45.3%

9-15 Sept 2014: 44.1%

Jan 2015: 44.0%

May 2015: 39.4%

(Source)

From the insane heights of 2009 (55.8%), Key has lost 16.4 percentage points in the PPM contest by May of this year.

Key’s leadership is safe. The only contenders are careerist politicians – most of whom would make National unelectable as a government;

  • Steven Joyce – far to arrogant. Looks down at people. Has a tendency to rant at political opponants who he finds threatening. Also not averse to threatening people who piss him off, in a sober, Aaron Gilmore kind of way.
  • Judith Collins – accident prone. Too many skeletons in her closet. Links to far right-wing bloggers; Oravida; and mis-use of her ministerial powers show her to be untrustworthy. Probably the dodgiest of all National MPs.
  • Nick Smith – tends to be sacked from ministerial portfolios more often than Winston Peters. Fast becoming identified with New Zealand’s critical housing problem. Has a fall-back career as a bus tour-driver.
  • Anne Tolley – Would be hopelessly out of her depth. Is beginning to stuff up her Social Welfare portfolio, and recent appearance on ‘Q+A‘ was cringeworthy.
  • Gerry Brownlee – the second-best of the bunch, but also tends to exhibit arrogance and a dismissive attitude to laws. Rules evidently don’t apply to him, as they do to us mere peasants.
  • Hekia Parata – (Joke entrant. Zero probabability.)
  • Paula Bennett – She’s the one. Zombified conservative voters love her for “dealing to the lazy benes”. Has a casual, “relaxed” air about her similar to Key’s. The only one who could possibly take over from Key and not consign National to the Opposition benches for the next ten years.

Except that Key’s leadership is fairly safe for the foreseeable future. Key has de-politicised politics and lulled the peasantry into a hypnotic state that would make Andrew Newton jealous.

But make no mistake, Key’s teflon has been gradually stripped away with scandal after scandal, and Andrew Little’s “Cut the Crap” remark in Parliament on 26 November last year showed that Key can be called out on his bullshit.

If an Opposition Leader can continue to highlight to the public that Key is in fact bullshitting them – it’s game over. Key will be forced to do Real Politics – and that is not his  forté.

One thing that the above polling shows with considerable clarity is that Key’s “dream run” has concluded.

Addendum1

A Wikipedia page of various polls also presents PPM data, but the TV3-Reid Research polls reach back to 2008, giving a more overall picture of the rise-and-dip of Key’s leadership.

Addendum2

A TV1-Colmar Brunton Poll on 19 July reports that John Key’s popularity as PPM has dropped 4 percentage points since May, to 40%.

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References

The Daily Blog: The Prime Minister and the Waitress

3News: Opinion Poll – April 13-20 2010

3News: Opinion Poll – 210 October 2012

Reid Research: TV3 Poll Results

NZ Herald: Minister to students – ‘keep your heads down’

Radio NZ: Collins defends giving details to blogger

TVNZ Q+A: Revolutionary changes in store for social services

Radio NZ: ‘Cut the crap’ and say sorry, Little tells PM

Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2014

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John Key radio live teflon coated

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