WAATEA NEWS COLUMN – Punts on the seven Māori Electorates
The Māori electorates could decide the 2026 election — and the battle between Te Pāti Māori, New Zealand Labour Party and the Greens is shaping up as one of the most important contests in the country.
Here are my punts on the seven Māori electorates.
The Māori Electorates are a lot more conservative than most punters reckon, but they have also had an influx of younger voters thanks to the enormous demographic bubble within Māori-dom that has 70% of the population under 40.
How these younger voters vote will have enormous implications on the final vote.
Why Māori voters could decide Election 2026
Hauraki-Waikato: Labour have an amazing candidate in Kingi Kiriona and he will absolutely generate more party vote for Labour, but Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is a superstar and should win the seat for Te Pāti Māori again.
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: Cushla Tangaere-Manuel is an amazing candidate for Labour and I think she will hold this seat for them again.
Tāmaki Makaurau: I think Oriini has been very flakey since she won a staggering by-election win and that Labour’s new candidate Kerrin Leoni has the gravitas for an electorate as important as this one. I think Kerrin has the edge going into this election.
Te Tai Hauāuru: Debbie Ngarewa-Packer should win this comfortably.
Te Tai Tokerau: TTT is a kingdom unto themselves, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi should retain the seat for Te Pāti Māori.
Te Tai Tonga: It will be interesting to see if Tākuta Ferris can hold the seat as an independent, but I think Labour will come through the middle
Waiariki: Rawiri Waititi would romp home here.
Seat-by-seat: who wins the Māori electorates?
The Greens have put up amazing Māori woman candidates this election and I think they will harvest a huge Party vote for the Greens and Labour has a chance to pick up two electorates.
I think Te Pāti Māori will hold four electorates and get a lower party vote than that which will create an MMP overhang meaning Te Pāti Māori will make it harder for the right to get to 51% and may well have a role in the formation of the next Government if National is to be defeated.
Labour’s real gain will be picking up two electorates and taking back a lot of the 23% of Māori who voted for National in the 2023 general seats.
Where Māori vote and who they vote for will determine the 2026 Election.
Yes good picks I think your probably close to what will occur.
At this stage I will be double ticking Labour this election I’m on the Maori roll. But I’m not happy with them supporting the Indian trade deal with the 34 billion dollar trade issue and I’m concerned about how increased immigration might hurt employment opportunities for many NZers. I would like to know what jobs will there be for our high rates of unemployed peoples from signing this deal.
Hope this is how it pans out as I believe with the current electoral gormlessness in NZ everyone who can vote needs to do so, no excuses. While we are on Maoridom, what right has Racist Minister, Goldsmith, to lead a govt initiative to review, amend or repeal various references to Treaty of Waitangi principles in legislation? What a spiteful, insignificant little creature he is. Why aren’t those with moral fibre opposing this? We desperately need stronger rules about changing any legislation, ie informing the public, getting the correct input and absolute transparency at the very least! All the ramrodded, knee-jerk, fast-track actions are destroying our country and its people. It’s lunacy and again, massive corruption!