Election Predictions 2026 – Old Zealand vs New Zealand

With the Election less than 16 weeks away, the Polls are all over the place and I think it will be down to the wire.

Here are my predictions as we get into the campaign.

Labour – 34%

I think Labour have held up and Chippy has threaded the needle between promising little and doing even less. I think Chippy will beat the living Christ out of Luxon in the debates and Labour’s ground game will ensure their team turns up. Expect the 23% of Māori who voted for National in the general seats to all walk back to Labour. The real challenge for Labour will be the post election negotiations, the reality is Labour can say no to everything that the Left actually wants but are they really going to a) go into a grand coalition wit National or b) go back to the electorate

National – 26%

Luxon is so feckless and weak. National risk creating an overhang because their Party vote is collapsing so quickly. The problem for National is that the Economy isn turning even more sour. Trump’s inane illegal war (which Luxon bewilderingly wanted to initially support) will keep damaging the economy and the impact of the most powerful El Niño in 150 years will highlight the Government’s climate denial in a blistering way. National are being mauled by the frighted redneck vote (NZF) and the angry redneck vote (ACT). The more voters see of Luxon in the debates, the less they will like him.

Greens – 15%

If the TPM Kakariki MMP voting strategy emerges and TPM urge their 4% Party vote support to vote Green instead and Candidate vote TPM in the Māori Electorates it will add up to 3% to the Greens. There has been an enormous demographic change in the Māori Electorates this election and those younger voters are far more likely to vote Green and TPM than Labour. I also think the vast chunk of youth who left NZ for Australia will come home for the Greens – expect a surprise in the Specials.

NZ First – 10%

The implosion of Trashy Nashy highlights their problems. NZF are just so toxic, from their MPs to their feral hate troll supporters that decent people back away in absolute disgust. NZF have peaked because while their toxic spite drives Social Media Hate algorithms and ferments polarisation, only 10% of the population are this unhinged from reality.

ACT – 10%

Paul Henry is the clown parrot who whitewashes ACTs Brown Shirts. His charm will take votes from National and ACT will hit double digits this election.

TOP – 5%

The elasticity of MMP allows for extremists to generate momentum in other directions. Qiulae appeals to second generation migrants, Gen Xers who don’t have property and cosmopolitan urbane Kiwis who want functioning cities. TOP are disrupters and want to make an impact. Labour + Greens + TPM can give them real policy wins, National + ACT + NZF can’t do that.

TPM – 5 Electorates 

If the Kakariki MMP voting strategy is implemented, TPM will call on their voters to candidate vote TPM in the Māori electorates while Party voting Green. This recycles their wasted Party vote while generating an MMP overhang. Māori voters in the Māori Electorate are the most styregic voting block in NZ elections and with 70% of the Māori population under 40, their social media networks could push the Kakariki voting strategy in the same way we saw in the Tamaki Makaurau by-election.

Conclusion:

I think the majority will be Labour + Greens + TPM + TOP and if Greens + TOP + TPM form a united negotiating team against Labour, we will finally see the defeat of Labour’s incrementalism. Exp[ect the Wellington Labour Mandarins to SCREAM with terror that their incrementalism is gloriously bludgeoned to death.

If National + ACT + NZF are the majority it will be an even weaker National Party with far more dominant ACT and NZF so expect their second term to be far more dangerous and damaging than their first term

There is EVERYTHING to play for this election, the very should of NZ is up for grabs and despite the gerrymandering National have done to stop people voting, the Right could lose this election.

This Election is a fight between Old Zealand and New Zealand.

ENROL NOW. 

 

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