Tamaki, Hutt South, Te Tai Tokerau, Tamaki Makaurau and Mt Albert – the five most important bellwether electorates this election
A handful of electorates could end up telling the entire story of Election 2026 — not just who wins government, but whether New Zealand is shifting back towards Labour, fragmenting further politically, or entering a completely new MMP era.
I think the five most important bellwether electorates this election will be Tamaki, Hutt South, Te Tai Tokerau, Tamaki Makaurau and Mt Albert.
🗳️ Why Tamaki and Mt Albert could reshape the urban vote
Tamaki: This will be a fascinating battle. The boundary changes that take in Glen Innes, Point England, parts of Stonefields and Meadowbank help Labour and the loss of Brooke van Velden leaves a huge pink jacket for James Christmas to fill. With right wing vote split between Mahesh Muralidhar and Christmas all Max Harris has to do is scoop Green Party vote and come through the middle. Harris is an exceedingly brilliant candidate and so is James Christmas and I think the right wing rich voters of Tamaki will respect the intellectual battle between the two. Watch for Labour Party vote in this electorate to see if Auckland is going back to Labour.
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Hutt South: Chris Bishop is one of the most competent National Party MPs and Ginny Anderson is probably one of the most incompetent Labour Party Ministers so if Labour beats National Hutt South it will be a bellwether for the nationwide result.
🗳️ Māori electorates may decide the balance of power
Te Tai Tokerau: If Hone becomes the candidate and wins, he will save Te Pāti Māori from themselves and probably help generate an MMP overhang, could be a game changer electorate.
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Tamaki Makaurau: Oriini Kaipara has been pretty flakey since her staggering win in the by-election and I think Kerrin Leonie could win this with more gravitas. Could be a wider bellwether if Māori voters are coming home to Labour.
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Mt Albert: If Mt Albert’s first resident, Helen Clark has a cup of coffee with TOP leader Quilae Wong and she nudges voters towards giving their candidate vote to Wong, she could win and TOP’s sub 5% vote would get counted and prevent Winston from being the Kingmaker. Helen White barely won last time and she’ll get in on the party vote anyway, so Mt Albert could decide the election if they vote Wong.
At least Michael Wood will reclaim Mt Roskill
This is an interesting piece in my opinion because I think it explains a lot. Like, for example, how we always seem to get terminal fuckwits embedded within our politics whom we, without a real clue why, end up reluctantly adoring them then voting for them to watch them then act against our best interests. Sound familiar? Perhaps
George Monbiot has an explanation.
Nothing sums up the death of accountability like the prospect of Nigel Farage in No 10
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/20/death-of-accountability-nigel-farage-no-10-brexit
I always vote. Always. My need to vote feels more like an obsessive compulsion but who am I going to vote for this coming general election?
They’re all greedy halfwits without class or charisma much less good intentions. They’re all like Stepford robots with less personality sniffing adoringly at the heels of those few rich fucks who now own us all one way of another.
Rocket lab ? That’s a good example of what I mean. There’s peter beck, the funny little Southlander snuffling around narcissist peter hegseth for God’s sake.
https://www.teaonews.co.nz/2026/01/15/new-zealand-founded-company-rocket-lab-closely-aligns-with-us-military-set-to-benefit-from-its-spending-push/
The arseholeanal of freedumb between american strength and american manufacturing. I’m off to stand on Rakiura wearing my tinfoil overalls with my thumb out in hopeful desperation.
Mandate the vote. Immediately.
A public, royal commission of inquiry up and into our economy and our politic beginning at 1936 to now, today.
Amen to that concerning Mt Albert. I’ve voted for TOP since its inception and just like the Warriors…..THIS IS OUR YEAR!!