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Dear Progressive NZ voters – in 2017 you can either have a changed Government or a change of Government – you can’t have both

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I think there needs to be a very clear understanding about the 2017 election for progressive voters.

You can either have a change of Government or a changed Government – you can’t have both.

If the goal is to vote the National Party out of power, then it’s just a change of Government you are after.

If you want a changed Government that puts people before profits and has the courage to make the radical changes inequality, climate change and a dramatically changing labour force requires then you want a changed Government.

Here are your options NZ

OPTION 1: Labour + Greens = 51% – This is not going to happen.

OPTION 2: Labour + Greens + Maori Party/MANA Movement = 51% – This would be the most progressive policy platform possible, a changed Government.

OPTION 3: Labour + NZ First + supply and demand from Greens = 51% – This would be a change of Government with all the hollowness that phrase entails.

OPTION 4: National + NZ First = 51% – this would be the same Government but with extra spending for Winston’s pet projects.

As activists and people with a genuine concern in social justice we need to decide by the 2017 election which option is most likely and which option can be worked towards.

NOTE: I haven’t included TOP yet – if Gareth Morgan runs in Mt Albert by-election he has a chance to change everything, if he doesn’t run he won’t break 5% threshold in September. 

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TDB Summer Election Special: Understanding Maori Party + MANA movement in 2017

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No one in the mainstream media has realised it yet, but the success of the Maori Party and MANA Movement in the 2017 election will decide the fate of the election and the idealogical direction of the country for the next 3 years.

The solidarity shown between the two parties at Ratana highlights the level of work being done behind the scenes to thrash out exactly how they should approach the election.

Working together and strategically gives them a chance to be an independent political voice for Maoridom, it gives NZers their only real chance of a progressive Government rather than the fairly hollow promise of a change of Government and through MMP it’s the only way Labour form the backbone of any new Government.

So there is a huge amount riding on the Maori Party and MANA Movement getting their shit together.

Here’s what they should do:

Hauraki-Waikato Last election combined MANA/MP candidate vote was 7600 to Nania’s 12 000 odd. With the Maori King pulling support for Labour however, Nania’s numbers could be severely challenged if MANA stood aside an electorate candidate in Hauraki-Waikato and let just a Maori Party Candidate stand while MANA stood in the Party vote.

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti – Combined MANA/MP candidate vote is 8800 to Meka Whaitiri’s 9 753. Here MANA again should step aside and allow Marama Fox a clear run.

Tāmaki Makaurau –  Combined MANA/MP candidate vote swamps that of Labour’s Peeni Henare. A strong candidate like Willie Jackson would win this for Maori Party if MANA candidate stepped aside.

Te Tai Tokerau – Here the Maori Party stand aside their electorate candidate AND allow Hone to stand.

Te Tai Hauāuru – Again combined Maori Party and MANA candidate vote beats Labour’s, same strategy to run Maori Party candidate.

Te Tai Tonga –  With Metiria running in this seat, there is a real chance that the right Maori Party candidate could win this by vote splitting between Metiria and Rino Tirikatene if the MANA candidate stood aside.

Waiariki – Just give this one to Te Ururoa, he rules that electorate with the largest victory margin of any of the Maori MPs.

Effectively MANA step aside their electorate candidate every electorate except Te Tai Tokerau but run a Party Vote campaign in the Maori electorates and General electorate’s to try and bring Annette Sykes in off MANA’s Party vote.

The Maori Party winning 6 seats and MANA Movement winning 1 would trigger all those weird and wonderful overhang+tail coating MMP quirks that would help see a progressive Government in power. It would mean Labour, if they got 30% Party Vote, would still get most of their maori MPs in off the party list and it would increase the number of Opposition votes.

Why would that be the best path to a progressive government?

Look at the options.

OPTION 1: Labour + Greens = 51% – This is not going to happen.

OPTION 2: Labour + Greens + Maori Party/MANA Movement = 51% – This would be the most progressive policy platform possible.

OPTION 3: Labour + NZ First + supply and demand from Greens = 51% – This would be a change of Government with all the hollowness that phrase entails. 

OPTION 4: National + NZ First = 51% – this would be the same Government but with extra spending for Winston’s pet projects.

The Maori Party and MANA Movement leadership have a lot to work on and it should be done already.

NOTE: I haven’t included TOP yet – if Gareth Morgan runs in Mt Albert by-election he has a chance to change everything, if he doesn’t run he won’t break 5% threshold in September.

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Minimum wage goal should be $20 an hour to combat poverty and inequality – Unite Union

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While welcoming an increase in the minimum wage by 50 cents an hour, Mike Treen of Unite Union says that this new level only maintains its value at about 50% of the average wage.
“This level was reached in 2008 and we need to be more ambitious as a society. We believe the goal should be $20 or two-thirds of the average wage
“The current consumer price index is almost meaningless when it come to what people have to spend in this country to live. After rent and power have been paid there is barely enough left for food and other necessities.
“There are widespread and unacceptable levels of poverty in this country and inequality is getting out of control. One way to address those issues in a meaningful way is to progressively increase the minimum wage in real terms.”
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The two factors that are pausing English’s hand on announcing election date

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Bill English is an incredibly savvy and intelligent strategist and the Left should not underestimate him.

The Machiavellian smarts  to stay out of the Mt Albert by-election and allow Greens and Labour to be framed as fighting, the Machiavellian dog whistle to dump on Waitangi and his fluent use of Maori at Ratana yesterday all suggest a Politician who has relied on sly cunning over the retail charisma of Key to keep and hold power.

He’s pausing on announcing the election date because he want’s to think about two things

1 – Global ructions that hit the economy – the first sign of danger Internationally and he might want to go to the Polls sooner rather than later and allow the damage to set in.

2 – Mt Albert by-election – If Labour can be wounded or worse then Bill might want to call a snap election.

If the Left underestimate English, National get another term.

 

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The Machiavellian horror of Trump’s ‘American carnage’

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Historians will look at Trump’s blistering venom of a speech as a turning point in history. The naked rage of perceived lost privilege mixed with neoliberal economic dislocation has given Trump a platform to spin his violent fantasy of America

“But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists: mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities; rusted out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation; an education system flush with cash, but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge; and the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential.

This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.”

…This American carnage.

This.

American.

Carnage.

Liberals. Elites, Academics, Women, Politicians, Celebrities, Men, Activists, LGBTQ communities, white, black, Asian, migrant, hispanic, teenagers, children and most pets – pretty much most sentient life – has been quick to denounce this apocalyptic political vision.

It is as horrific as it is Machiavellian genius.

For those who have seen their jobs and factories shipped offshore, for those who don’t have the educational opportunities to skill up, for those who compete for work with cheaper migrant labour, for those who have suffered from drugs and crime that breed in this economic wasteland, for those who have to join the Military because there is no other opportunities – FOR THEM, this has been an American Carnage.

He is speaking to the 30% of America that he needs to keep. He will strip billions from the Military Industrial Complex and drop it into infrastructure and building throughout the rust belt that he needs if he is to get a second term.

Trump’s spitting in the face of the establishment while they were all forced to sit there and listen to him tells us that he has no intention of changing his style and the cavalcade of mutant political freaks he’s appointed to his Cabinet tells us that he has every chance of becoming a dangerously destabilising threat to the planet.

This speech was to his devotees and it was a direct threat to the Republican Party itself that if they don’t let him do what he wants, he’ll blame them and hurt them at the Mid-Term elections in 2 years time.

 

 

 

 

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Political Caption Competition

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Daily Blog Guerrilla Radio – Gil Scott Heron – The Revolution Will Not Be Televised

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TDB Top 5 International Stories: Tuesday 24th January 2017

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5: In Photos: New Zealand Women the First in the World to March Against Trump

This is just the beginning, say organisers.

New Zealand was the first country in the world to launch the historic Women’s March protesting Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States. Now organisers say it’s time to regroup and confront the country’s own legacy of gender violence and inequality.

Vice News

 

4: Trump withdraws US from Trans-Pacific Partnership deal

US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order formally withdrawing the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, following through on a promise from his presidential campaign.

“We’ve been talking about this for a long time,” Trump said as he signed the executive order in an Oval Office ceremony on Monday, calling his move a “great thing for the American worker”.

In the same ceremony, Trump also signed an order imposing a federal hiring freeze, with the exception of the military, and a directive banning US non-governmental organisations receive federal funding from providing abortions abroad.

Aljazeera

 

3: ‘Your only right is to obey’: lawyer describes torture in China’s secret jails

On day one of his detention Xie Yang claims he was shackled to a metal chair and ordered to explain why he had joined an illegal anti-Communist party network.

On day two he was moved to a secret prison and informed: “Your only right is to obey.”
Finally, on day three, the violence began.

“We’ll torture you to death just like an ant,” one inquisitor allegedly warned the Chinese human rights lawyer during a punishing marathon of interrogation sessions and beatings designed make him confess to crimes he denies.
“I’m going to torment you until you go insane,” another captor allegedly bragged. “Don’t even imagine that you’ll be able to walk out of here and continue being a lawyer. You’re going to be a cripple.”

The Guardian 

2: Women’s March on Washington: Historic Protest Three Times Larger Than Trump’s Inaugural Crowd

In one of the largest days of protest in U.S. history, millions took to the streets Saturday one day after the inauguration of Donald Trump. The largest protest was the Women’s March on Washington, where more than 500,000 packed the streets. According to crowd scientists at Manchester Metropolitan University in Britain, the crowd was roughly three times the size of the audience at President Trump’s inauguration a day earlier. Women-led marches took place in over 600 locations spread across seven continents—including Antarctica. In addition to Washington, massive protests took place in Boston; Chicago; Denver; Los Angeles; Madison, Wisconsin; New York; Oakland; Portland, Oregon; St. Paul; San Francisco and Seattle. According to one count, as many as 4.6 million people took part in the global day of action.

Democracy Now!

1:  LAWMAKERS IN EIGHT STATES HAVE PROPOSED LAWS CRIMINALIZING PEACEFUL PROTEST

OVER THE WEEKEND, millions of demonstrators took to streets across the country to mobilize against the new president and his agenda, assembling in a national turnout that organizers call the beginning of a reinvigorated protest movement. But in states home to dozens of Saturday’s demonstrations, Republican lawmakers are moving to criminalize and increase penalties on peaceful protesting.

Last week, I reported that such efforts were afoot in five states: In Minnesota, Washington state, Michigan, and Iowa, Republican lawmakers have proposed an array of anti-protesting laws that center on stiffening penalties for demonstrators who block traffic; in North Dakota, conservatives are even pushing a bill that would allow motorists to run over and kill protesters so long as the collision was accidental. Similarly, Republicans in Indiana last week prompted uproar over a proposed law that would instruct police to use “any means necessary” to clear protesters off of a roadway.

Over the weekend, readers alerted me to two additional anti-protesting bills, both introduced by Republicans, that are pending in Virginia and Colorado. This brings the number of states that have in recent weeks floated such proposals to at least eight.

The Intercept

 

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The Daily Blog Open Mic – Tuesday 24th January 2017

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openmike

 

Announce protest actions, general chit chat or give your opinion on issues we haven’t covered for the day.

Moderation rules are more lenient for this section, but try and play nicely.

 

 

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Bill English’s Plan B for TPPA a political ‘own goal’ in election year – Professor Jane Kelsey

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The idea from Prime Minister Bill English that New Zealand and other countries might proceed with Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement without the US is quite bizarre – especially in an election year’, says Professor Jane Kelsey from the University of Auckland.

‘Donald Trump would be delighted! US corporations would get the benefit of all the controversial rules on medicine patents, copyright, investment, state-owned enterprises that the US insisted on without the US have to give a single thing in return. Worse, countries that resisted these unprecedented demands for several years would become their new champions.’

‘Bill English suggested this morning that the TPPA was “probably” still a good deal without the US. Seriously? The economic modelling the government relied on to sell the TPPA last year had zero credibility and failed to account for the costs. Take the US out of that equation and any attempt to pitch the agreement as having net benefits to New Zealand is risible.’

‘Trying to sell the unsaleable during an election year would be a major political miscalculation’, Professor Kelsey said. ‘Because the text would be substantively different from the one that National rammed through the New Zealand Parliament last year the new version and a new National Interest Analysis would have to be tabled in the House and referred to the select committee. Not allowing submissions would inflame anti-TPPA sentiments; allowing them would provide a platform to expose the government’s stupidity’.

Kelsey noted that ‘Labour would also have to engage the TPPA in election year, which it is desperate not to do. Winston Peters would be in his element.’

This scenario assumes the other countries can reach the threshold of 85% of GDP to bring the agreement into force. That calculation would apply to the eleven original signatories who remain after the US withdraws its signature later this week.

According to Professor Kelsey, a TPPA-11 would require ratification by Japan, Canada and Australia, as well as either Mexico (86.6% of GDP) or four of the other larger countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Chile and either Peru or New Zealand) which total just over 85%.

‘Japan has completed its ratification. But the Australian Senate looks like it may reject the deal. The Canadian government has held a prolonged consultation on TPPA while awaiting developments in the US and will now be preoccupied with threats to renegotiate NAFTA.’

Professor Kelsey advised the Prime Minister to think again on whether he really wants to score such an obvious ‘own goal’ in an election year.

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Day of Endangered Lawyer on 24 January – New Zealand Law Society

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New Zealand Law Society President Kathryn Beck has praised the courage of lawyers around the world who risk harassment, imprisonment or even death to stand up for the rights of their clients.

Lawyers’ organisations and lawyers internationally are recognising 24 January as the Day of the Endangered Lawyer.

“Each year a disturbingly high number of lawyers are threatened, beaten, incarcerated or murdered because they represent unpopular clients or speak out against human rights abuses. Their brave and courageous actions are something for all lawyers to salute,” Ms Beck says.

“New Zealanders are very fortunate that they live in a country where the rule of law is respected and adhered to. We take it for granted that we can be critical of our institutions, our justice system, our government and to seek to change the way things are done without fear of physical harm or unlawful imprisonment.

“We have a right to legal representation and we know that a lawyer may represent any client as a matter of course, whatever they are alleged to have done, or whatever they believe. It is important, therefore, that as a profession we give our support to lawyers in other countries where that is not so.”

Ms Beck says this year’s Day of Endangered Lawyer is the seventh such commemoration. The focus in 2017 is on China. There have been many reports of harassment and imprisonment of Chinese human rights lawyers.

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Protestors block second gate at Fonterra dairy factory – Coal Action Group

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Protestors block second gate at Fonterra dairy factory

Climate change protestors have now blocked a second gate at Fonterra’s Clandeboye dairy factory in South Canterbury this morning, in protest at the company’s coal use.

This follows the chaining of five people to the main coal delivery gate earlier today.

Charlie Montague, a health student from Dunedin, has now chained herself to a second gate at the factory, which is now locked, and has been turned off by Fonterra. Trucks have been turning around at the gate.

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Grandmothers and farmers block Fonterra plant – Coal Action Network

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Three grandmothers, a student and a farmer have this morning chained themselves to a gate to prevent coal being delivered to Fonterra’s Clandeboye dairy factory in South Canterbury.

At 7.30 am, the five locked themselves to the gate at the entrance to the factory’s coal plant, as a pile of woodchips was dumped in front of them, with the message “FONTERRA QUIT COAL,” while others were dressed as cows pointing to the woodchips as an alternative. In all, 24 people are now at the site taking part in the protest.

One of the grandmothers is Coal Action Network Aotearoa’s (CANA) Jeanette Fitzsimons, joined by CANA’s Rosemary Penwarden, Auckland Coal Action’s Jill Whitmore (also a farmer), Mike Dumbar – one of the farmers who refused to sell his land to Solid Energy when it was buying up land for its now-abandoned plans for massive coal expansion project in Southland, and Charlie Montague – a health student from Dunedin.

“Fonterra is our second largest user of coal and this factory burns 180,000 tonnes of coal a year. All of this ends up in our atmosphere, contributing to climate change. It’s time for Fonterra to keep the coal in the hole and switch to woodchips instead,” said Ms Fitzsimons.

“Fonterra’s coal use is also propping up the mining industry – coal mines around the country are being re-opened and extended because of Fonterra’s addiction to coal.”

Fonterra is the largest customer for Bathurst Resources, which started mining the Denniston Plateau, but stopped when the coal price dropped.

“There is no question that without Fonterra, this company would have gone bust,” she added.

The protest has come at the end of CANA’s “Summerfest” in Ashburton, which has seen more than 50 campaigners from around the country gather for a two-day discussion around the issues of Coal, Cows and Climate.

“The meeting was extremely productive. New Zealand’s biggest contribution to climate change is agriculture, with rising emissions from the dairy industry in particular. Farmers are being hit by the impacts of climate change, and everyone is experiencing the gathering crisis of water pollution. These issues are all connected.”

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Mastering Trumpian Arithmetic: Why, in the New Political Order, 2+2=5

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ONE OF THE MOST CHILLING ASPECTS of Donald Trump’s political style is its sheer, amoral audacity. Like all the truly great political manipulators, Trump understands that whether or not something is true is a question best left to the philosophers. What matters in politics is what people believe to be true. And, when it comes to persuading people to choose unreality over reality; “alternative facts” to the facts themselves; Trump is a virtuoso.

There are two great literary illustrations (at least) of the Trump Administrations brutal ontology. The first is to be found in the exchange between Alice and Humpty Dumpty in Lewis Carrol’s Through The Looking Glass:

“I don’t know what you mean by ‘glory,’ Alice said.
Humpty Dumpty smiled contemptuously. “Of course you don’t — till I tell you. I meant ‘there’s a nice knock-down argument for you!’”
“But ‘glory’ doesn’t mean ‘a nice knock-down argument’,’ Alice objected.
“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”
“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”
“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master — that’s all.”

The other illustration is contained in George Orwell’s dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four:

“In the end the Party would announce that two and two made five*, and you would have to believe it. It was inevitable that they should make that claim sooner or later: the logic of their position demanded it. Not merely the validity of experience, but the very existence of external reality, was tacitly denied by their philosophy. The heresy of heresies was common sense. And what was terrifying was not that they would kill you for thinking otherwise, but that they might be right. For, after all, how do we know that two and two make four? Or that the force of gravity works? Or that the past is unchangeable? If both the past and the external world exist only in the mind, and if the mind itself is controllable – what then?”

So, when the White House spokesperson, Sean Spicer, flatly declares the equivalent of 2+2=5 by asserting that Trump’s inauguration attracted more spectator’s than Barack Obama’s; and when Trump adviser, Kellyanne Conway, justifies Spicer’s behaviour by referencing his use of “alternative facts”; how should we respond?

The temptation is to question the sanity of Trump and his team. “Just look at the photographs!” you shout in exasperation. “Are you people completely nuts! Do you think we’re all blind!” But, of course, these are the wrong questions. Because Trump and his team, just like everybody else, can see that Obama’s crowd was way bigger than theirs. Yes, their actions may resemble the behaviour of a terrible two-year-old, but appearances can be deceptive. There is method to Trump’s madness.

The Washington Post has reproduced a memorandum,  supposedly penned by a former White House official, which sets forth with chilling clarity what the Trump Administration hopes to achieve with its 2+2=5 strategy.

Apart from immediately lowering the expectations of the White House Press Corps (because after Spicer’s opening salvo relations can only improve, right?) the author of the memorandum further argues that the Administration may also be seeking to widen the gap between the one-third of the American electorate who are Trump’s supporters, and the remaining two-thirds who are not:

“By being told something that is obviously wrong – that there is no evidence for and all evidence against, that anybody with eyes can see is wrong – they are forced to pick whether they are going to believe Trump or their lying eyes. The gamble here – likely to pay off – is that they will believe Trump. This means that they will regard media outlets that report the truth as ‘fake news’ (because otherwise they’d be forced to confront their cognitive dissonance.)

The Washington Post’s anonymous author then puts forward another, even more disturbing, explanation for the Trump team’s dysfunctional relationship with the truth. By convincing a large chunk of the American population that truth and falsehood are fundamentally unknowable, the Administration hopes to induce them to disengage from politics altogether.

“A third of the population will say ‘clearly the White House is lying,’ a third will say ‘if Trump says it, it must be true’ and the remaining third will say ‘gosh, I guess this is unknowable.’ The idea isn’t to convince these people of untrue things, it’s to fatigue them, so that they will stay out of the political process entirely, regarding the truth as just too difficult to determine.”

The memorandum’s chilling conclusion:

 

“This is laying the groundwork for the months ahead. If Trump’s White House is willing to lie about something as obviously, unquestionably fake as this, just imagine what else they’ll lie about. In particular, things that the public cannot possibly verify the truth of. It’s gonna get real bad.”

Fighting this strategy will require the US news media to demonstrate a measure of tenacity and courage not seen by the American public since the darkest days of the Nixon Administration.

Such demonstrations are never easy. As Orwell noted of the Nazi regime in 1943:

 

“Nazi theory [ … ] specifically denies that such a thing as ‘the truth’ exists. [ … ] The implied objective of this line of thought is a nightmare world in which the Leader, or some ruling clique, controls not only the future but the past. If the Leader says of such and such an event, ‘It never happened’ – well, it never happened. If he says that two and two are five – well, two and two are five. This prospect frightens me much more than bombs.”

 

But almost certainly not as much as the man currently in command of the United States’ nuclear codes frightens us.
* It is possible that Orwell was inspired to use the 2+2=5 metaphor after seeing a Communist Party poster exhorting Soviet workers to complete Stalin’s Five Year Plan in just four years.

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Malcolm Evans – Trump’s view of the inauguration

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