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Cutting taxes toward more user-pays – the Great Kiwi Con

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Introduction

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The following is the amount spent by Labour, on Vote Education in the 2008 Budget;

Total 2008 Vote Education: $10,775,482,000 (in 2008 dollars)

Total students in 2009: 751,330* 

spend per student: $14,341.88

The following is the amount spent by National, on Vote Education in the 2016 Budget;

Total 2016 Vote Education: $11,044,598,000 (in 2016 dollars)

Total students in 2016: 776,948**

spend per student in 2016 dollars: $14,215.36

Total 2016 Vote Education: $9,608,800,000 (re-calculated in 2008 dollars)

spend per student in 2008 dollars: $12,367.37

Calculated in real terms (2008 dollars), National’s spending on Vote Education was $1,166,682,000 less last year than Labour budgetted in 2008.

In dollar terms, in 2016, National spent less per student ($14,215.36) than Labour did in 2008 ($14,341.88). Converting National’s $14,215.36 from 2016 dollars to 2008 dollars, and the sum spent  per student is even less: 12,367.37.

In real terms, National has cut the total*** education budget by $1,974.51 per student.

*  Not including 9,529 international fee-paying students

**  Not including 11,012 international fee-paying students

*** Total spent on Vote Education, not just schools and tertiary education.

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Tax-cuts and Service-cuts

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Writing in the Daily Blog recently, political commentator Chris Trotter had this to say on the matter of taxation and social services;

Speaking on behalf of the NewLabour Party, I felt obliged to spell out the realities of tertiary education funding. I told them that they could have free education or low taxes – but they could not have both. If the wealthy refused to pay higher taxes, then students would have to pay higher fees. If the middle class (i.e. their family) was serious about keeping young people (i.e. themselves) out of debt, then they would have to vote for a party that was willing to restore a genuinely progressive taxation system.”

Since 1986, there have been no less than seven tax-cuts;

1 October 1986 – Labour

1 October 1988 – Labour

1 July 1996 – National

1 July 1998 – National

1 October 2008 – Labour

1 April 2009 – National

1 October 2010 – National

The 2010 tax-cuts alone were estimated to cost the State  $2 billion in lost revenue.

Taxes were raised in 2000 by the incoming Labour government, to inject  much needed funding for a cash-strapped health sector. The previous National government, led by Bolger and later Shipley, had gutted the public health service. Hospital waiting lists grew. People waited for months, if not years, for life-saving operations. Some died – still waiting.

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During that time, National cut taxes twice (see above). Funding for public healthcare suffered and predictably, private health insurance capitalised on peoples’ fears;

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A decade late, National’s ongoing cuts, or under-funding, of state services such as the Health budget have resulted in wholly predictable – and preventable – negative outcomes;

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A critic of National’s under-funding of the health system, Phil Bagshaw, pointed out the covert agenda behind the cuts;

New Zealand’s health budget has been declining for almost a decade and could signal health reforms akin to the sweeping changes of the 1990s, new research claims.

[…]

The accumulated “very conservative” shortfall over the five years to 2014-15 was estimated at $800 million, but could be double that, Canterbury Charity Hospital founder and editorial co-author Phil Bagshaw said.

Bagshaw believed the Government was moving away from publicly-funded healthcare, and beginning to favour a model that meant everyone had to pay for their own.

“It’s very dangerous. If this continues we will slide into an American-style healthcare system.”

Funding cuts to the Health sector have been matched with increases to charges;

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cuts to NGOs offering support services;

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… and  leaving district health boards in dire financial straits;

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The critical correlation between  tax cuts and consequential reduction of state services was nowhere better highlighted then by US satirist and commentator,  Seth Meyer. He was unyielding with his  scathing, mocking, examination of  the travesty of the Kansas Example of “minimalist government”;

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[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xliMwipXoiA&w=560&h=315]

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Here in New Zealand, National’s funding cuts have not been restricted to the Health sector and NGOs. Government agencies from  the Police , Radio NZ, to the Department of Conservation have had their funding slashed (or frozen –  a cut after inflation is factored in).

The exception has been the Prime Minister’s department which, since 2008, has enjoyed a massive  increase of $24,476,000 since 2008 and  a near-doubling of John Key’s department and Cabinet expenditure since Michael Cullen’s last budget, seven years previously.

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Tax cuts, slashed services, and increasing user-pays

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By contrast,  parents are finding more and more that the notion of a free state education is quietly and gradually slipping away. User-pays has crept into the schools and universities – with harsh penalties for those who fail to pay.

In May 2013, National’s Tertiary Education Minister, Steven Joyce, announced;

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True to his word, in January 2016, the first person was arrested for allegedly “defaulting on his student loan”. By November the same year, a third person had been arrested. Joyce was unrepentant;

“There probably will be more, we don’t know of course how many are in Australia but that’s a very good start, and I think it’s probably a reasonable proportion of those who are in Australia.”

Joyce, of course, has nothing to fear from being arrested for defaulting on a student loan. His tertiary education was near-free, paid for by the tax-payer.

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joyce

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National had no choice, of course. The entire premise of user-pays was predicated on citizens paying services that until the late ’80s/early ’90s, had been either free or near-free. With student debt now at an astronomical $14.84 billion, National cannot afford to let ‘debtors’ get off scott-free. That would send the entire unjust system crashing to the ground.   According to Inland Revenue;

… nearly 80,000 of the 111,000 New Zealanders living overseas were behind on their student loan repayments.

IRD collections manager Stuart Duff said about 22 percent of borrowers living overseas were in Australia.

He said the $840m owed to New Zealand was a substantial amount of debt.

Figures show that student debt has been increasing every year since it’s inception in 1992. At this rate, student debt will achieve Greece-like proportions;

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Graphic: acknowledgement - NZ Herald
Graphic acknowledgement:  NZ Herald

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Unsurprisingly, loan ‘defaulters’ have surpassed $1 billion, including $16 million  written off through bankruptcy. Some never pay off their “debt” with $19 million  lost after death of the borrower.

But it is not only tertiary education that has attracted a user-pay factor. School funding has also been frozen, with operational grants the most recent to suffer National’s budgetary cuts;

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Education, Inc.

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Schools are so starved of funds that they are having to rely on outside sources of income  to make up shortfalls;

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Reliance on foreign students to make up shortfalls in government spending is essentially turning our schools into commercial ventures; touting for “business” and ensuring “clients” achieve good results so as to ensure repeat custom.

When did we vote for a policy which effectively commercialised our education system?

Schools are also funded more and more by parents – to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. Fund-raising and ever-increasing school fees are required, lest our schools become financially too cash-strapped to function.

In 2014, school “donations” (actually fees by another name) and necessary fundraising reached  $357 million and is estimated to reach a staggering $1 billion by this year;

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It is estimated that a child born this year will cost his/her parents $38,362 for thirteen years of  a “free” state education. In 2007, that cost was 33,274. Our supposedly “free” state education is being gradually whittled away, and replaced with surreptitious user-pays. According to Radio NZ;

Some school principals say many schools are considering a hike in parent donations next year and cutting teacher aide hours, as they respond to a freeze on core school funding.

More than 300 school principals responded to a survey by teacher unions.

About 40 percent of school principals said they were considering cutting back on the hours of teacher aides and other support staff next year.

Thirteen percent said they were looking to increase parent donations.

The president of the teacher union NZEI, Louise Green, said the survey showed it was students who miss out when school funding was frozen.

The neo-liberal princiciple of user-pays is being covertly implemented throughout the public sector and nowhere is this more apparent than in education. Parents and guardians are expected to pay more for education and this is “off-set” by cuts to taxes. This is core to the concept of user-pays.

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User-pays is hard to pay

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The problem is that this is not an overt policy by National. The public have not been given a clear choice in the matter and instead increasing user-pays has crept in, barely noticed by the voting public. Even when challenged, a National Minister will use mis-information to attempt to use Trump-like “alternative facts” to hide what is happening;

But Education Minister Hekia Parata said parents contributed just $1.80 for every $100 spent by the taxpayer on education.

The Government was set to invest $10.8 billion in early childhood, primary and secondary education, more than the combined budget for police, defence, roads and foreign affairs.

New Zealanders have been lulled into a false sense of security that, even after seven tax cuts, we still have “free” education.  But as Chris Trotter pointed out with cool logic;

I told them that they could have free education or low taxes – but they could not have both.

The question is, what kind of society do New Zealanders want: a free education system or  tax cuts and more user-pays?

Because we can’t have both.

At the moment, politicians are making this choice for us.

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Postscript

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From a Dominion Post article on 24 January;

Student loans are getting bigger and graduates are taking longer to pay back the money they owe.

Figures from last year’s Student Loan Scheme Annual Report show the median loan balance in this country grew from $10,833 in 2008 to $14,904 in 2016.

The median repayment time for someone with a bachelor’s degree also lifted from just over six years, to eight and a half.

Since a peak in 2005, the numbers of people taking up tertiary education have declined.

[…]

Labour education spokesman Chris Hipkins said there was a variety of factors that lead to higher student loans and longer repayment times. Tuition fees continued to rise, as did living costs.

“The long term impact for people is quite significant, basically they have a large debt for longer,” Hipkins said.

“If they’re weighed down with student loan debt it will be difficult to get on the property ladder, it’s already a burden, and this is making it even harder for the next generation.”

Universities New Zealand executive director Chris Whelan said that when it came to universities fees increasing, one need only look at published annual accounts of the country’s eight universities to see they were not “raking in” a lot of money.

Currently two-thirds of the cost of tuition was covered by subsidies, and one-third was covered by the student.

LOANS ON THE RISE

Median loan balances

2010 – $11,399

2012 – $12,849

2014 – $13,882

2016 – $14,904

Median repayment times for a bachelors/graduate certificates or diplomas

2010 – 6.9 years

2012 – 7.8 years

2014 – 8.5 years

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References

Reserve Bank NZ: Inflation calculator

Treasury: Vote Education 2008

Treasury: Vote Education 2016

Educationcounts: School RollsStudent Rolls by School 2005-2009

Educationcounts: School RollsStudent Rolls by School 2010-2016

The Daily Blog:  Don’t Riot For A Better Society: Vote For One!

Infonews: Government’s 2010 tax cuts costing $2 billion and counting

The Press: Four forced off waiting list die

Otago Daily Times:  Heartwatch Insurance Cover

Radio NZ: Patients have ‘severe loss of vision’ in long wait for treatment

Fairfax media: Researchers claim NZ health budget declining, publicly-funded surgery on way out

Radio NZ: Patients suffering because of surgery waits – surgeon

Fairfax media:  Prescription price rise hits vulnerable

TVNZ News: Kiwi charities and NGOs face closure with impending funding cuts

NBR: Leaked document shows 10 District Health Boards face budget cuts – King

Fairfax media: Police shut 30 stations in effort to combat budget cuts

Youtube: Kansas Tax Cuts –  A Closer Look

Scoop media: Budget cuts continue National’s miserly underfunding of DOC

Fairfax media: Student loan defaulters to face border arrest

NBR: Arrested student loan defaulter claims to be Cook Island PM’s relative

Fairfax media: Third arrest of student loan defaulter made following government crackdown

Radio NZ: Govt tightens education purse strings

NZ Herald: ‘At risk’ school funding revealed – with 1300 to lose out under new model

Fairfax media: Student loan borrowers seeking bankruptcy as millions in debts wiped due to insolvency

NZ Herald:   Schools using foreigners’ fees to staff classrooms

NZ Herald: Parents fundraise $357m for ‘free’ schooling

NZ Herald: Parents paid $161m for children’s ‘free education

NZ Herald:   School costs: $40,000 for ‘free’ state education

Motherjones: Trickle-Down Economics Has Ruined the Kansas Economy

The New Yorker: Covert Operations

CBS News: Kansas loses patience with Gov. Brownback’s tax cuts

Kansas City Star: Gov. Sam Brownback cuts higher education as Kansas tax receipts fall $53 million short

Bloomberg: Kansas Tried Tax Cuts. Its Neighbor Didn’t. Guess Which Worked

Fairfax media: Tourism industry claims DOC will be severely handicapped by funding cuts

Previous related blogposts

The slow starvation of Radio NZ – the final nail in the coffin of the Fourth Estate?

12 June – Issues of Interest – User pays healthcare?

The Mendacities of Mr Key # 16: No one deserves a free tertiary education (except my mates and me)

The Mendacities of Mr Key # 19: Tax Cuts Galore! Money Scramble!

The seductiveness of Trumpism

Steven Joyce – Hypocrite of the Week

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Only A Matter Of Time: American Fascism Awaits Its Marching Orders

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LAST FRIDAY, on the Seattle campus of the University of Washington, a Trump supporter shot a Trump opponent. The (non-fatal) shooting took place during a violent protest against the presence of Milo Yiannopoulos – the tech editor of Breitbart News. Violence erupted after Yiannopoulos’s opponents formed a picket-line and physically obstructed the Alt-Right commentator’s followers from entering the auditorium where he was speaking.

In a nation where “the right to bear arms” is constitutionally protected, it can only be a matter of time before such clashes escalate into a ferocious firefight – and fatalities.

What happens then is all-too-easy to predict. President Trump will denounce his political opponents as enemies of free speech and democracy. Federal, state and local law enforcement agencies will crack down hard on anti-Trump agitation. More ominously, the President’s most vociferous supporters will militarise themselves into special protection squads. Presented to the American public as “self-defence” organisations, the actual purpose of these goon squads will be to intimidate and/or terrorise progressive individuals and groups into silence.

Thus will President Trump pay homage to his mentor Vladimir Putin – whose use of “patriotic” organisations (often comprising a hard core of former soldiers and secret policemen) to shut down his political opponents is well documented. The appearance on American streets of an aggressive political militia will be the strongest proof yet that the United States has fallen under the sway of a fascist regime.

The arrival of these political thugs will force Trump’s opponents to make a choice. Either: fall quietly into line with the new realities of American political life. Or: put your own personal safety (not-to-mention the safety of your friends and family) at risk by continuing to speak out against the policies of the Trump Administration.

This choice will likely be an urgent one for members of the journalistic profession. If the Putin comparison holds true, it will not be long before at least one reporter, columnist or blogger pays the ultimate price for exposing the sins of Trump and his supporters.

If fearless journalism leads directly to murder, as is currently the case in the Russian Federation, America’s editors will feel torn between the duty-of-care they owe to their employees, and their democratic duty to defend freedom of expression. Their decision-making will, almost certainly, be simplified by their publishers, America’s huge media corporations, making it clear that the shareholders’ dividends (and the CEO’s bonuses!) are not to be jeopardised by Quixotic editors sanctioning crusades to rescue the First Amendment.

With the consequences of opposition clearly evident to the by-now-thoroughly-cowed news media, Trump’s people will invite the Fox News Network to assume the role played by the state-owned broadcasters of the Russian Federation. Fox will receive the Administration-approved editorial line on matters political and cultural, and all the other mainstream media organisations will be expected to follow its lead.

The quiescence of the American working-class during any such period of political co-ordination will likely be secured by the Trump Administration’s skilful co-optation of the American trade unions. Already, Trump has received praise from the leader of the US trade union movement, AFL-CIO President, Richard Trumka, for nixing the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Trumka hailed the President’s actions as “just the first in a series of necessary policy changes required to build a fair and just global economy.”

Further union backing is to be anticipated as Trump ramps up his “American jobs for American workers” infrastructure programme. Few union leaders – and especially not the leaders of the steelworkers, auto and construction unions – will be willing to kill Trump’s golden, job-creating goose by standing in solidarity with the environmentalist and Native American opponents of the controversial Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines – both of which were restarted today (25/1/17) by Executive Order.

As anyone familiar with the last 50 years of American political history will attest, any eruption of American fascism was certain to feature an angry, white, working-class complexion. Ever since 1968, when all those furious blue-collar “Hard-Hats” marched off their New York construction sites to beat up defenceless anti-war student protesters, a cross-class alliance of White Christian Americans exposed itself as the most likely vector of American fascism. Nixon recognised it. Reagan primed it. Trump has set it in motion.

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Fringe Festival – Purrfectly Pawsome Catacular.

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It’s a cat show. There’s cats. (also some snazzy dancing).

Brought to you by the hearts, brains and souls of Sarah-Louise Collins and Caitlin Davey, CATACULAR is a crazy cat ladies dream come true!

Make yourself comfortable in the homely lounge at BaristaCats, enjoy some coffee and prepare to be a part of a show like you have never seen before! Audience interaction (especially with the cats) is highly encouraged.

Sarah-Louise and Caitlin meet at Unitec where they studied contemporary dance. They have been involved in Foster Group, Fabricate, Tempo Dance Festival, Rushes since graduating in 2015.

This venue unfortunately doesn’t allow children under the age of 10 to enter in compliance with SPCA guidelines.

Dog people welcome.

CATACULAR plays:

Date: Sunday 26th Feb – 1pm, 2pm, 3pm, 4pm
Venue: Barista Cats (95 Queen Street)
Tickets: $20 (Tickets include 30mins of cat show magic and 20mins of cat cuddles.) Booking:

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Malcolm Evans – CIA

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Political Caption Competition – Spot the difference

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Daily Blog Guerrilla Radio – Leonard Cohen – Nevermind

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TDB Top 5 International Stories: Thursday 26th January 2017

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5: White House Told EPA to Remove Climate Change Page from Its Website, Report Says

This is the latest move in what is seen by some as a campaign to silence dissenting voices on the environment and climate change.

The Trump administration begun the process of removing the climate change page from the website of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Tuesday, according to two sources at the organization. This is the latest move in what is seen by some as a campaign to silence dissenting voices on the environment and climate change.

Vice News

4: Winona LaDuke: Trump’s Push to Build Dakota Access & Keystone XL Pipelines is a Declaration of War

On Tuesday, Donald Trump signed a pair of presidential memorandums to revive the Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines—two major projects halted by the Obama administration following massive resistance from indigenous and environmental groups. Native American groups and their supporters have long opposed the Dakota Access pipeline being laid a mile from the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation and beneath the tribe’s primary source of drinking water. The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe tweeted, “Trump’s executive order on #DAPL violates the law and tribal treaties. We will be taking legal action.” The tribe added, “Creating a second Flint does not make America great again.” We speak to Winona LaDuke, Native American activist and executive director of the group Honor the Earth. She lives and works on the White Earth Reservation in northern Minnesota.

Democracy Now

3: SEYMOUR HERSH BLASTS MEDIA FOR UNCRITICALLY PROMOTING RUSSIAN HACKING STORY

PULITZER PRIZE-WINNING journalist Seymour Hersh said in an interview that he does not believe the U.S. intelligence community proved its case that President Vladimir Putin directed a hacking campaign aimed at securing the election of Donald Trump. He blasted news organizations for lazily broadcasting the assertions of U.S. intelligence officials as established facts.

The Intercept

 

2: Trump signs order for border wall with Mexico

President Donald Trump has signed directives to begin building a wall along US border with Mexico and crack down on US cities that shield undocumented immigrants, moving quickly on sweeping and divisive plans to curb immigration and boost national security.

The order, signed on Wednesday, will enable construction of “a large physical barrier on the southern border”, spokesman Sean Spicer said.

“Building this barrier is more than just a campaign promise, it’s a common sense first step to really securing our porous border,” Spicer added.

Aljazeera

 

1: Greenpeace activists hang giant ‘Resist’ banner over White House

Activists from Greenpeace unfurled a 70ft banner inscribed with the word “resist” near the White House on Wednesday morning.

Speaking from a crane 300ft in the air, where she was holding a rope keeping the banner up, Pearl Robinson, 26, described her view to the Guardian: “I can see the White House, where we now have a president who doesn’t have the interests of the majority of the people.”

The anti-Trump activist called the message “all-encompassing. We want Donald to know that we won’t stand for the crony capitalism, for the assault on women’s reproductive rights and the assault on the environment.”

The Guardian 

 

 

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The Daily Blog Open Mic – Thursday 26th January 2017

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openmike

 

Announce protest actions, general chit chat or give your opinion on issues we haven’t covered for the day.

Moderation rules are more lenient for this section, but try and play nicely.

 

 

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Dear Mr Dunne: a statement from a Pike River widow – Stand With Pike

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Peter Dunne’s statements about the evidence for safe re-entry of the Pike River drift is exactly the kind of uninformed politicking he claims he is rejecting, says Pike River family member Anna Osborne.

In his open letter to US President Donald Trump, Mr Dunne says, “[Politicians] share your distaste of science and evidence because it can be awkward. We have some calling for the reopening of a mine where 29 men died so tragically over six years ago, even though all the evidence says the mine is still unstable and unsafe to enter.”

Anna, who lost her husband Milton in the disaster, says, “I get that he’s trying to come across as ‘sensible’, but he’s clearly failed to get some basic facts right here.

“For a start, we’re not talking about re-entering the mine. We’re talking about re-entering the drift – a 2.3km tunnel that leads to the mine. That’s an extremely important distinction.

“Mr Dunne also seems to have missed the expert reports we have provided, which have been presented to Parliament, that show safe re-entry of the drift can be done. I’m happy to send him copies if he wants.

“I also assume he wasn’t listening when a statement from the former New Zealand Chief Mines Inspector that the drift can be safely re-entered was read out in Parliament.

“I encourage Mr Dunne to educate himself about what the evidence actually shows, before his ignorance causes any further distress to the families of the men we lost in that mine. I welcome him to join us at select committee on 16 February to do so.”

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Minimum wage increase has minimal impact without stronger supports – Child Poverty Action Group

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For the second time inside of two years the National Government has increased the minimum wage by 50 cents per hour, this year equating to a 3.3% increase (down slightly from last year’s 3.4%).

While this initiative from the National Government is a commendable acknowledgement of the rising costs affecting our most needy, the increase is not an effective solution for reducing poverty in New Zealand. It falls short of being a fair wage, let alone being an adequate wage to sustain a family.

Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) says to effectively target a reduction in poverty, the minimum wage needs to increase by at least 10%. It’s critical that it also be strengthened by improving multiple other supports, such as proper indexation of Working for Families (WFF), and a return to the abatement rate of 20c (per additional dollar earned over the threshold) for the Family Tax Credit.

The $18 per week increase in take-home pay for those working a full-time job at $15.75 per hour, without dependents, will barely cover the new year rent increase.

“For many families with dependents, not only is the increase insufficient for the increased housing costs, but if the overall family income is more than $36,350 (before tax, per annum) the value of the increase will be reduced through the WFF rate of abatement,” says Associate

Professor Susan St John, CPAG’s economics spokesperson.

For every additional dollar earned over the earned-income threshold of $36,350, WFF reduces at a rate of 22.5 cents in the dollar.

“We need a realistic increase in the minimum wage to begin to share the fruits of economic growth more fairly, and properly indexed weekly Working for Families support to help sustain the living standards of those on low wages with children,” says Frank Hogan, CPAG’s law and children’s rights spokesperson.

“These are not alternatives, they must work hand in hand.”

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Gareth Morgan’s Speech at Ratana

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At least Trump built the Autobahn – why meeting Unions and stopping TPPA doesn’t mean Donald’s not a fascist

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The bewildering level of intellectual, cultural and philosophical dissonance that seems to be occurring within activists over Trump is as disconnected as the creepy Putin worship that infects so many.

Yes Trump has annoyed the Military Industrial Complex because they had backed Hillary believing she would give them their next big war.

Yes Trump has pulled out of the TPPA.

Yes Trump has met Unionists in a way the Democrats foolishly never did.

Yes Trump has frightened established Republicans.

But to take those facts and frame Donald Trump as some sort of flawed saviour is a fucking naive and dangerous argument that needs to be challenged and shot down immediately.

Trump has done all these things because he wants a second term and he is appealing directly to the angry white workers left behind by globalisation to stay with him for the next 4 years. He’ll pork barrel those states he needs to keep on side and allow the others to wither on the vine.

Don’t mistake strategic precision with ethics or morality or quality leadership.

All Trump is doing right now by meeting with Unions and killing the TPPA is highlighting how dangerous he really is.

Hitler did the exact same thing when he came to power. Build huge infrastructure projects that bribed the working classes to rally around him.

With the looming economic, political and climate shocks about to hit America, Trump will be perfectly placed to manipulate peoples fear and anger to Orwellian levels.

Look at the mutant cavalcade of vicious banker and elite arseholes he’s appointed to his inner circle. There’s no need to ‘drain the swamp’ when all the monsters are in his Cabinet.

Look at how Trump’s first couple of acts as President were to allow more Generals to join his Cabinet than any other in modern politics and look at how he immediately put the boot into Abortion rights.

Trump is not here to challenge the Military Industrial Complex or Globalisation, he is to manipulate them for his own ends.

 

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Trump did NOT kill TPPA – WE the people did!

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Yes, I am happy the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is dead. But let me spell out in one syllable words – Trump – did – not – kill – the – TPPA. It was already dead. Obama could not get it through the Congress before the election. If he could have, he would have. As I have said before, it became such an election issue because of Bernie Sanders, then both Hilary Clinton and Trump jumped on the bandwagon. Blaming TPPAs collapse on a xenophobic megalomaniac allows the media to continue to ignore the real dynamics behind Trump’s victory, Brexit, the rejection of TTIP and resistance to CETA in the EU. The model is broken.

We need alternatives.

Trump has only withdrawn the US from the TPPA. There is no reference to TTIP or the US China Bilateral Investment Treaty – both bilateral negotiations that he prefers – or the multi-party Trade in Services Agreement that would do most of the things he rails about, such as offshoring of businesses, jobs and investment, but is sought after by many of the billionaires in his Cabinet.  Nor has he exercised executive power to withdraw from NAFTA as he did the TPPA. Instead, it will be renegotiated.

If Trump is serious about making agreements work ‘a lot better’ for working people and their communities, rather than the corporations, that could genuinely create a space for new thinking. Progressive thinkers in the US and Canada are already advising Trump on what needs to be done about NAFTA. Letters to Trump from the Public Citizen Trade Campaign, the AFL-CIO and Democratic Party Representative Rosa DeLauro have set out some specific starting points:

  • Eliminate rules that incentivize the offshoring of jobs and that empower corporations to attack democratic policies in unaccountable tribunals.
  • Defend jobs and human rights by adding strong, binding and enforceable labor and environmental standards to the agreement’s core text and requiring that they are enforced.
  • Overhaul NAFTA rules that harm family farmers and feed a destructive agribusiness model.
  • End NAFTA rules that threaten the safety of our food.
  • Eliminate NAFTA rules that drive up the cost of medicines.
  • Eliminate NAFTA rules that undermine job-creating programs like Buy American.
  • Strengthen “rules of origin” and stop trans-shipment so as to create jobs and reinforce labor and environmental standards.
  • Add strong, enforceable disciplines against currency manipulation to ensure a fair playing field for job creation.
  • Require imported goods and services to meet domestic safety and environmental rules.
  • Add a broad protection for environmental, health, labour and other public interest policies.

Why can’t that be done, not just in the US but here? There are obvious barriers in the US that people committed to progressive alternatives would have to overcome. The corporate lobbies who have privileged access to the text as cleared advisers and largely got their way in the TPPA would not tolerate it. Nor probably would the billionaires from Wall St and the oil industry in Trump’s cabinet. Would Trump’s racist diatribes against Mexico and Mexicans allow anything but the meanest of power politics in a renegotiation? Can he get past the border to see part of the reason Mexicans cross it is the impact of NAFTA on their own jobs, communities and future prospects? As Lori Wallach from Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch said: ‘The trade debate is not about the United States versus the rest of the world, but rather about multinational corporations versus the rest of us.’ 

That challenge is as relevant to us as it is to the US, Canada and Mexico. Some ideas that are embraced in the US may not warrant the same support, while others, such as rights pf indigenous peoples and dealing to climate change, would be on our list. But there is no reason why a New Zealand government could not embrace that kind of alternative. It’s exactly the kind of debate we need to have.

Instead, we have the spectacle of Bill English, along with the political leaders of numerous other TPPA countries, desperately seeking to rescue an agreement that is toxic in most of their countries. Having spent six years of political capital and taxpayer resources closing a deal that never stood up to scrutiny, their Plan B would squander more resources and political capital trying to defend the indefensible – in our case during an election year.

It is hard to believe they are really serious about proceeding without the US. Trump would rub his hands in glee. Unless they renegotiated large chunks of the text, US corporations would get the benefit of all the controversial rules on medicine patents, copyright, investment, state-owned enterprises that the US on without the US have to give a single thing in return.

The alternative of renegotiating would take years and more resources, to achieve what?

The economic modelling National relied on here to sell the deal had zero credibility and failed to account for the costs. Take the US out of that equation and any attempt to claim it would have net benefits to New Zealand is risible.

Because the text would be substantively different from the one that National rammed through the Parliament last year, the new version and a new National Interest Analysis would have to be tabled in the House and referred to the select committee. Not allowing submissions would inflame anti-TPPA sentiments; allowing them would provide a platform to expose the government’s stupidity. Surely National can’t want that.

Labour would also have to engage the TPPA in election year, which it has been desperate not to do. But maybe if they got brave (?!) that would give them a point of difference that appealed to their constituency of working people. Winston Peters would be in his element – although the pro-TPPA Shane Jones might be a bit uncomfortable. The Maori Party and Mana would have genuine common cause.

The prospect that we might convert TPPA-scepticism into debates on a positive agenda for new models of international agreements almost makes election year sound interesting!

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Did Gareth Morgan At Ratana Just Demonstrate Political Nous?

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Having witnessed yesterday’s excitement at Ratana, I am starting to wonder whether Gareth Morgan may actually be a surprisingly good political strategist.

Consider this: year in and year out, New Zealand First manages to cobble together an impressively diverse coalition of opinion ranging from rednecks to Rangatiratanga enthusiasts. Proof of this can be seen in the fact that the Party’s strongest performing electorate seats are in fact the Maori Seats [seriously – look it up], while simultaneously the Hobson’s Pledge organization offers us money.


It’s not always easy keeping these two sectors of voter opinion on-side and moving in the same direction – particularly when the rhetoric required to wrangle them can wind up being fairly diametrically opposed [consider, for instance, Winston Peters angrily pointing to his personal record fighting against what he called the largest government confiscation of Maori land in history … and then juxtapose that against his customary advocacy for going back to the legislative situation of the 2004 Foreshore & Seabed legislation – which, perhaps ironically, has *also* been called the largest Crown confiscation of Maori land in history, thanks to a legislative provision written by Winston himself].

I believe that Morgan has realized that there is an ‘exploitable’ fault-line here. Hence his references in his Ratana speech today to Winston and NZF’s previous record.

The objective he must have in mind by drawing attention to NZF’s “Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Deletion Bill” effort from yesteryear – particularly at one of the highest political pilgrimage sites in Maoridom – must surely be to attempt to back Winston into a corner. Forcing Winston to either choose to double down upon his previous rhetoric and stances in opposition to Maori politics (with the consequent risk of alienating Maori support from NZF) – or to ameliorate his anti-‘Separatism’ (or “Apartheid” to use Winston’s own somewhat hyperbolic wording) positioning in order to keep Maoridom on-side.

It will be interesting to see whether Morgan continues along this present line of attack for the rest of the Treaty Politics summer season. And, for that matter, in what direction (if any) this bears fruit – certainly with MANA looking to be back in contention this year, there is a possibility of NZF losing votes in other directions.

Although one could argue that Morgan’s attack may represent a fundamental misreading of what we’re about here in NZ First – and, for that matter, why we’ve continued to prove so undeniably popular to so many Maori voters and communities regardless of some of our previous actions and rhetoric.

New Zealand First stands for a unitary nationalism. Its very Caucus and membership embodies this concept (with the former being about 50% Maori, and the latter representing possibly the greatest concentration of Maori parliamentary-political activism in the recent MMP era outside of the Maori Party at its founding – seriously, attending an NZ First Convention is an exercise in applied biculturalism in more ways than one). And, as Morgan pointed out today, one in five NZ First voters are Maori. This would appear to suggest that there is a rather significant current out there in Maoridom who empathize quite strongly with what we’re about.

With this in mind, it is possible that Morgan’s efforts will have perhaps less impact upon NZF and our actual support base than he might anticipate – instead reprsenting something of a pantomime performance to project values to other parts of the electorate.

Besides, if the sympathetic media coverage (gosh, there’s an odd phrase to be associating with Winston) from today is anything to go by – Winston may be “too big to fail” as he continues to snowball towards the Election; with intriguing points of scrutiny being as molotovs against Poseidon.

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Malcolm Evans – Make America Grate Again

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