Why could Winston Peters be kingmaker again?

Polling suggests a hung Parliament, where NZ First could hold the balance of power in forming a government.

What is the 5% threshold in New Zealand elections?

Parties must win at least 5% of the party vote or an electorate seat to enter Parliament under MMP.

How could voting for TOP change the outcome?

If TOP crosses the 5% threshold, it could reduce NZ First’s influence and change coalition dynamics.

What is strategic voting?

Strategic voting involves choosing a party not just based on preference, but to influence the overall election outcome.

If the choices this election are Winston as PM for 12 months or 18 months, why wouldn’t’ you vote TOP?

ByMartyn Bradbury 28 March 202631 March 2026

Old Zealand vs New Zealand

With polling suggesting a potential hung Parliament, the prospect of Winston Peters once again holding the balance of power has reignited debate about strategic voting — including whether backing The Opportunities Party could reshape the outcome.

Polling points to a potential kingmaker scenario

Poll after poll after poll is suggesting a hung Parliament with the potential of Winston playing the kingmaker for a 5th time.

NZ First is still the same stale tobacco stain of petty bigotry and garden variety ignorance it’s been cursed to become since Tracey Martin left the Party.

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It’s a calcified malice that cements into place the new all-tribe-no-village political polarised landscape from people who get their news from Facebook.

Why Winston Peters could decide the next Government

If Winston is the kingmaker again, he will demand 12 months as prime minister from National/ACT or 18 months as prime minister from Labour/Green.

What a Winston Peters Prime Ministership could mean

Jesus wept, when Winston as prime minister is the price to pay, what has gone wrong with our democracy?

Old Zealand will strangle New Zealand.

Why TOP is being positioned as an alternative

If the choice in 26 is Winston for 12 months as prime minister or Winston as prime minister for 18 months, why wouldn’t you vote TOP to get them over 5%?

Strategic voting and the 5% threshold

If TOP get over 5%, Winston loses his power as kingmaker, and wouldn’t that be a far preferable outcome than Boomers rigging the system once again for their benefit and culture war grievances?

Let New Zealand beat Old Zealand and start a new chapter that doesn’t include Winston!

In a tight election, small shifts in vote share can have massive consequences — and this time, the question may not just be who you support, but how you prevent the outcome you don’t want.