How Kakariki Alliance between TPM and Greens inoculates Left against a TOP betrayal
The Opportunity Party ‘would be happy’ to go into coalition with National
The Opportunity Party has taken the opportunity to say it “would be happy” to go into coalition with National, while launching its economic policy.
The party has previously said it would negotiate with the party that gets the most votes on election night and has styled itself as a centrist party that can work across the political spectrum.
Speaking at the launch of the party’s economic policy on Thursday, leader Qiulae Wong said Opportunity would work with either National or Labour.
“We would be happy to go into a coalition with National or Labour. They are our first choice[s] for coalition partners.”
Stuff
This doesn’t surprise or concern me.
First up, I’m a working class socialist so I am NOT voting for TOP, but TDB was the first to recognise that TOP would break the 5% threshold this year and that’s why I’ve written so many blogs on TOP and why I have had Qiulae on The Bradbury Group more than anyone else.
We argued that the unique elasticity of MMP causes reactions to extremism.
We argued that the negative and malicious culture war spite from NZF would generate a backlash.
If you are an urbane, educated National voting person living in Auckland, Wellington or Christchurch, you find the weakness of Luxon to allow these redneck thugs in ACT and NZF to run the show as disgusting as the rest of us.
You know a vote for National is a vote to put Winston and his toxic garbage in as PM for 12 months.
For those right wingers, for the children of National voters who are too rich to vote Labour and too white to vote Green, TOP is your political vehicle the same way the Teals have been in Australia.
TOP also appeals to second generation migrant communities who want to be Kiwis yet feel alienated by the major parties, Qiulae’s optimism appeals to them and TOP policy appeals to all those Gen Xers who don’t own property.
Now.
I have been fortunate enough to talk to Qiulae privately many times and here is my assessment of her and TOP.
They are disrupters and believe in the reform they are promoting.
The difference between TOP and National, ACT and NZF is that they actually take climate change seriously, and it is essentially this issue that I believe makes it impossible for them to find common ground with National, ACT and NZF who at heart are all climate denial parties.
National is so in the pocket of the Big Polluters that they take secret direction when passing laws FFS.
That is an anathema to TOP.
In the background of TOP you have former National MP Jackie Blue who was scathing on the Coalition Governments pay parity kneecapping and Ian Lees-Galloway who is a former Labour MP.
TOP are drawing in support from disaffected cosmopolitan National voters and Blue Green supporters, these voters are rational and not into the calcified tribalism of old school Labour and National.
TOP have already declared on The Bradbury Group that their intentions are to start negotiating with the largest Party on election night, which will be Labour, so the Left have the first advantage.
The best outcome for the Left is a Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government, but to ensure TOP don’t rob TPM of any political leverage, the Kakariki Alliance between Greens/TPM must be in effect to guarantee the united negotiating front from Greens/TPM so TOP don’t simply push out TPM.
There are factions inside Labour who would gloriously love to cut TPM out of any deal and sew up a majority with TOP and Greens, which is why the Kakariki Alliance between TPM and Greens inoculates the Left against a TOP betrayal.
The Rights spiteful culture war garbage is the reason why TOP are rising and if they can be allies in building a better NZ, I welcome them to the fold.
If TOP decide however to hitch their wagon to National, they will see first hand how tribal politics really is because National will not and can not provide TOP with the climate change disruption they are promising, and dashed electoral hopes will sink TOP raising above 5% again.
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Martyn you’ve got to stop your bullshit around the Greens\TPM and get aboard TOP. When Mr Morgan set them up in 2017 it was to disrupt the status quo and bring evidence based policy to parliament. I think they might even get to 7% this election…(you heard it here first)…Fuck National…
TOP may find a mate with Labour but would they except the Greens or TPM ,They seem too sensible to dilute their aims that much
I would like to think Qiulae Wong would rethink her remarks about being prepared to also negotiate with National!!! Luxon’s ignorant response was demeaning and he surely has shot himself in the foot here. Again, this is typical – up-himself – Luxon behavour with his – I’m superior to you ego. How in the hell he reached this conclusion is amazing. He is almost stupid in his assessment of situations. In fact he is another Trump, but without the insane bravado – but he’s fast getting there! May he keep dropping himself and his party in IT!
A lot of people assume a new minor party should rush straight into a formal coalition with Labour or National. Personally, I think that would be a first-term trap. If they want to survive and actually make an impact, staying on the crossbench is their smartest play.From an independent perspective, here is why a crossbench strategy makes the most sense:Real Independence: Entering a formal coalition forces a minor party to swallow bad ideas just to keep the Prime Minister happy. On the crossbench, they can judge every bill on its merits—voting ‘yes’ on good policy and ‘no’ on bad policy, regardless of who proposes it.Avoiding the Minor Party Curse: History in NZ politics shows that small parties in a formal government coalition get blamed for all the failures but starved of the credit.Maximum Policy Leverage: They don’t need cabinet seats to get things done. They can offer confidence and supply to form a stable government strictly in exchange for their biggest bottom lines—like tax settings or competition reform.Ultimate Accountability: Sitting on the outside means they keep their leverage. If the major party breaks a promise, an independent crossbench can withhold votes on specific bills to force compliance.Learning the Ropes: A brand-new caucus needs time to master how Parliament works. Shoving a first-term party straight into running massive government ministries usually leads to administrative chaos. Going into coalition with any of the blocks would be a poison chalice for a first term new political party
Good thinking
Power is achieved through leverage. The Greens, ACT, TPM, and now for the first time NZF will have limited leverage when negotiating with National and Labour. TOP will have have leverage has they are willing to go with either.
Let’s not pretend that National have any principles, they will turn green if it gets them another term in Government. Likewise Labour would start digging coal if that is what Winston wanted. TOP are the only choice if your number one concern is climate change.