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Sex and beneficiaries – 19th century morality in 21st century

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I never thought at this stage of my rather dull economics career I would be writing a blog about SEX.

But I am trawling through all the cases I can find on relationship fraud and it is making me very, very cross indeed and very sad to observe the moralistic 19th century veneer on our so-called civilisation.

Imagine if it made no difference whether you were having SEX or not, as to how you were treated. But, hold on, you don’t have to have imagination, you just need to think of that other three letter word TAX. The IRD don’t care whether you are having SEX or not, so long as you pay the individual tax you should.  They don’t peer into your bedroom to see if they can charge you more tax for having SEX. They don’t string you up, humiliate you, put you in jail and otherwise ruin your life for having SEX.

The sad fact is the benefit system, backed up by courts and judges who have no training in these matters, treats those who have SEX like they are seriously deviant. They need to be severely punished and often have their lives ruined by prison terms, community service, home detention to say nothing of adverse publicity and long-term repayments schedules that are crippling and cruel.

Exactly what is different between flatting or sharing and de-facto or married?  You got it, SEX.

Here is an example of what I am seeing and I will alter the identifying detail in the interests of not further recriminalizing the victims of this terrible system:

A mentally disabled man is on the unemployment benefit for 10 years and then shifts in with a woman for the next 10 years who provides him some support with his daily living problems.  This woman is in ill-health herself, eking out a bare subsistence on a benefit with some part-time work.

Under the current benefit rules living arrangements make no difference for single people. He is entitled to the single rate of jobseekers benefit even if he is sharing accommodation. He considers himself unmarried and continues on the meagre single rate of jobseekers supplemented by a few hours of odd jobs a week. Work and Income detects a whiff of SEX and comes down like a ton of bricks accusing him of having been in a de facto relationship for the last ten years.  He is prosecuted in the courts and branded a ‘benefit cheat’. The judge actually refers to there being an “intimate” relationship so this must be different to flatting and must be punished.  He is told he is lucky not to be sent to jail and gets a reduced sentence on account of his mental disabilities, his need for a caregiver and the fact he pleads guilty. However, he will still do many months of community sentence and lengthy home detention making it impossible to do any paid work at all. For the next 15 years he will repay $20 a week out of his meagre benefit and has a reduced capacity to ever again earn extra as now he has a criminal conviction.

We are not talking about a life of luxury. The Single Jobseeker weekly rate is only $210 but the ‘married’ or ‘de facto’ person rate is even less at $175.  The result is that two single people flatting together are entitled to $420 per week, which is $70 more per week than if they are deemed to be in a de facto relationship.   Worse, as singles they can each earn up to $80 a week before this additional income sharply reduces their benefit entitlement, whilst a de facto couple can earn only $80 between them.  There are other complications with accommodation assistance.

But what kind of a test is used to say two unmarried people are actually in a de facto relationship and therefore can be treated as if they need less money to live on? Despite a long checklist on Work and Income’s website, it boils down to SEX.  Keep out of each other bedrooms is prudent advice!

The welfare provisions are perverse in the extreme but clearly the faster a relationship can be found to be in ‘the nature of a marriage’ the more the state saves.  The so-called ‘benefit cheat’ is usually said to be ‘remorseful’. A plea of guilty to ‘relationship fraud’ can take up to 6 months of a jail sentence so a guilty plea can be expected in a situation of clear power imbalance. What alternative does an accused beneficiary have without the legal resources to fight it through the appeal process?

What are we thinking of when we differentiate between single sharing and de facto married and then criminalise people for not getting the difference? If we are honest we should acknowledge we have a system that taxes SEX. The very first change that MUST occur is alignment of the rates so there is no difference between single and married as is the accepted practice in our tax system. The second change that is beyond urgent is to remove the joint income test so each is treated as an individual when there is any extra earned income.

 

 

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CEO pay rates immoral in an egalitarian society

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The recently announced unprecedented level of CEO salaries should give all conscientious Kiwis cause for concern. The scale of both the base salaries and the increases for New Zealand company bosses shows real inequity, and growing inequality between the pay rates of workers and elites. The growing gap between the rich and the poor is glaringly obvious there. Over the last 10 years CEO salaries have gone up an average of 107%. In the last year alone CEO pay rates rose an average of 10%. At the same time many lower level Kiwi workers received no pay rise at all or had pay rates that were virtually stagnant, with about only a 3% wage increase for Kiwi workers on average.

On the other hand, the CEO of the ANZ bank earned $4.27 million, up $250,000 from the year before. That’s about 120 times the earnings of the bank’s lowest paid employees. The Westpac boss earned $2.89 million last year. Fonterra’s boss had a colossal pay packet of $4.27 million, an increase of $660,000 on the year before. His pay rise alone is worth the earnings of more than a dozen workers on the median wage.

The head of pharmaceutical company Ebos, earned $3.48 million, Sky City, $3.24 million. And if you’re in charge of a power company you’re also sitting pretty – in 2014 Mighty River Power’s boss earned $3.18 million, a rise of 68% on the previous year. Meridian Energy’s CEO earned $1.86 million – a pay rise of 70%. The Contact Energy chief took home $1.58 million, Genesis $1.30 million, TrustPower $1.36 and Vector $1.51.

Within that list there are no women, which should make us question the impartiality, fairness and decency of the system in itself. But what those pay rates and rises reflect is something widely insidious. It reflects a culture that normalises income extremes, justifies excessive remuneration, and celebrates private accumulation of wealth at the expense of a fair society and the public good. This is especially concerning when most of these companies are monopolistic and provide critical financial or infrastructural services on which vulnerable citizens depend.
Those blind to the biases of the meritocracy that concentrates such wealth and reward in the hands of male CEOs might argue that the pay rates and rises earned are warranted, due to the record profits achieved by the companies concerned. But while those CEO salaries rose an average of 107%, their companies’ profits rose a comparatively modest 59%.

To be sure, the newly (part) privatised power companies have exhibited some exceptional returns. Meridian earned Net Profit After Tax of $117.1 million in the six months to December 2014 and is expected to return $625 million to shareholders over the next five years. Mighty River Power had an End of Year profit to June 2014 of $212 million. Contact Energy recorded a half yearly profit of $257 million, up 17%. These sky high, (usually) record breaking profits are certainly reflected in the high rates of CEO pay. But electricity sector analysts warn about taking simple profit statements at face value – lack of transparency means we are unable to determine how well power companies are actually being run, and the rapid rate of revenue gain and extraction, compared with expenditure raises questions whether assets are even being properly managed and maintained.

While the CEOs of all those power companies were taking home more money than an individual could ever need, more and more New Zealanders are living in power poverty, unable to heat their homes, suffering subsequent health effects. In 2013 more than 40,000 homes had their power cut off due to inability to pay.

In fact people on lower incomes face a double whammy compared with high earning elites. Low income earners already work long hours for poor pay. New Zealand employees on average work the longest hours in the OECD, with 20% of the workforce working more than 50 hours a week, most of them low to middle income earners. At the same time, electricity prices have risen by 46% in real terms since the turn of the century. Power price increases outstrip inflation and push up the cost of living. And because low income earners pay a relatively higher proportion of earnings into energy costs, they’re hit harder than those who earn more.

Those high CEO salaries and dividends to shareholders may not directly come at the cost of social dividends such as warm homes or healthy kids, or for the most vulnerable users being able to afford the security of continuous power supplies. But excessive payments to CEOs while kids die in poorly heated houses are contemptuous of both customers and citizens, and in a supposed egalitarian society that values the welfare of all its members, immoral in the extreme. In a decent society this obvious inequality should be unconscionable to us all.

Disclaimer
Christine Rose is employed as Kauri DieBack Community Co-ordinator by the Auckland Council. All opinions expressed herein are Christine’s own. No opinion or views expressed in this blog or any other media, shall be construed as the opinion of the Council or any other organisation.

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National Party wallows in its trail of muck

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It’s not a Kauri tree, it’s a perfectly crafted paper weight

Environmental destruction and the blatant abuse of the law by National Party-linked businesses are at the heart of swamp kauri exports from the far north.

Contractors are destroying Northlands remaining wetlands and polluting local waterways as they rip out kauri preserved for tens of thousands of years. The kauri logs and stumps fetch huge prices, particularly in China where the age of the wood is a key selling point.

One of the biggest companies involved is Oravida Kauri Limited – a subsidiary of dairy exporter Oravida Limited – which has National MP Judith Collins’s husband as a director.

The problem for such National Party linked businesses is that under New Zealand law indigenous swamp timber can only be exported if it is deemed to be a “finished product”.

This ban is in place to ensure the wood is processed here, providing jobs and employment to locals in an area of very high unemployment.

Bugger that says National!

The wood is more valuable to exporters in the raw state so for years they have been cutting the logs into 120mm slabs – polishing one side and then exporting them as “table tops” – to be properly processed once they are offloaded overseas.

More recently local exporters have been chiselling a bit of the surface of these logs and claiming the finished product is a sculpture”.

Everyone knows it’s a rort. The value being exported is the wood – not a pretend table top or so-called “artwork” chiselled on its surface by a local company manager.
But this week Minister of Primary Industries Nathan Guy waded in and applauded the practice of exporting these “sculptures” as “a good way to promote the country”.

He’s quoted as saying –

“They are finished products, I have seen some fantastic-looking kauri swamp logs being carved and they’re going to be an amazing feature for our country and an international country that they’re destined for. So we manage it very, very closely.”

What Guy means is that through abuse of the law he’s managing to maximise profits for National Party related businesses at the expense of jobs in New Zealand and the Northland environment.

Judith Collins has never shown any interest in wetlands but she has shown herself to be mistress of cronyism – using her former ministerial position to promote the private business interests of her husband.

This week Nathan Guy joined her in the muck at the bottom of the National Party barrel.

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The impact of the boycott on TV3

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The impact of the boycott on TV3 in the wake of the political killing off of Campbell Live hasn’t just damaged ratings, it’s also forced management to rescind the light and fluffy crap that Seven Sharp has sunk to.

The desire to get Duncan Garner and Heather du Plessis-Allan to front the new show at 7 suggests that MediaWorks have had serious second thoughts, remember originally it was a Ben and Jono sort of thing,  Garner and du Plessis-Allan are not that.

While no one can ever forgive the awful story du Plessis-Allan did on Cameron Slater just before Dirty Politics came out, she has redeemed herself on Q&A and Garner was the target of Slater trying to trawl brothels.

It’s no Campbell Live, but the decision to put these two together as hosts is a damned sight better than a mix of 7 Days and the Rock drive show.

 

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TDB Political Caption Competition

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The Daily Blog Open Mic Monday 22nd June 2015

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Announce protest actions, general chit chat or give your opinion on issues we haven’t covered for the day.

Moderation rules are more lenient for this section, but try and play nicely.

 

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A decade later – and nothing has changed for underage prostitutes in NZ

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10 years ago, I hosted a TV show on TV3 called ‘STAKEOUT’. One of our first shows was an investigation on under age prostitution. We had two actresses playing under age prostitutes standing on Hunters Corner in Manukau. We filmed men driving up to the actresses and the actresses telling the men that they were under age.

Every. Single. Man. Who. Stopped. Said. ‘No worries’.

At that point me and the camera crew would step out from behind the van and immediately interview the men and demand to know why they thought it was acceptable to have sex with under age woman.

The most inane moment of the story occurred after one of the men had rung the Police and complained we were filming them. The Police then turned up to arrest me – not the men trying to buy underage woman for sex, no, me for challenging them on film doing it.

Fast forward 10 years and the horror is still there and with suggestions that Police were demanding sex as bribes, it could well be worse.

Interviewing the young woman 10 years ago, what was most obvious was the failings of the law. Police if they picked up any underage woman would drive them back home, but in many of the interviews I had with these young girls, they were being sexually abused at home so returning them to the place where they were being hurt was counter productive.

A specialist night shelter that doubles as an outreach service to help these young girls was what was required then, as it is now, but in a country where poverty is becoming more and more grinding, that compassion seems to have dried up.

I had hoped a decade ago that doing the story would have made some changes, it is terribly depressing that it did not.

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Lamb killing sand, $400 hair straighteners & Nick Smith’s housing meltdown – why none of it matters

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This Government are becoming a joke aren’t they?

Steven Joyce justifying taxpayer extravagance at MBIE, Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy trying to claim sand killed over 70% of the Saudi bribe lambs, Nick Smith leading a magical mystery tour that claimed houses could be built on cemeteries, next to exploding power stations, land the government didn’t own and finally Maori land Nick would need to steal and then there was Key explaining that the bus trip Nick had taken Journalists on wasn’t a literal line up of spare housing land, but was in fact ‘conceptual’.

It’s a joke looking for a punchline isn’t it?

In NZ politics, it is the little things, not the big things that topple a Government however, and as disturbing as it is for me to acknowledge, $400 hair-straighteners installed at MBIE will probably have more impact than knowing the PMs Office colluded and instigated the SIS to smear the Leader of the Opposition months before the 2011 election.

That said, I doubt any of this latest shambles will dent National very much.

The rump of the Party hate the Left so much National MPs could all get caught drinking kegs and doing shots in the Parliamentary debating chamber with male and female strippers after hours and they’d still vote blue.

The property owning middle classes may roll their eyes at the incompetence, but because  their false sense of wealth is built upon ever increasing property prices, they’ll keep voting for Key.

The tide will turn when the property bubble pops. Until then the rest of us must grit our teeth.

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Rainbow Warrior and NZ’s Pacific nuclear-free legacy

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Alistar Kata’s Rainbow Warrior report for Pacific Media Watch.

David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific

A PROGRESS report on the new Eyes of Fire – it’s very different from previous editions, with an even greater emphasis on the Rongelap and Polynesian casualties of American and French nuclear testing in the Pacific.

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The new Eyes of Fire … out on the 30th anniversary of the Rainbow Warrior bombing, July 10.

New Zealand media has too much preoccupation with the 1985 bombing of the Greenpeace flagship Rainbow Warrior in Auckland, and has largely ignored the greater Pacific tragedy.

Outrageous as this attack by French secret service agents was, it pales by comparison alongside the atrocities inflicted on Kanak independence activists at the same time in New Caledonia, such as the Hienghène massacre, the assassination of Éloi Machoro and the bloody ending to the 1988 Ouvea cave siege as exposed in the 2011 docu-drama Rebellion.

The publishers describe this new Eyes of Fire as being as being the “definitive work on Western treachery in the Pacific”.


A tribute to Éloi Machoro.

The Eyes of Fire microsite reported on in the last TDB posting is progressing impressively, thanks to the enthusiastic contributions of the student journalists and the Little Island Press team headed by Tony Murrow.

Rainbow Warrior second mate Bene Hoffman’s Mejato Diary  has also aroused interest.

Here is a Pacific Media Watch intro to the latest video in the project series:

Activist movements in New Zealand through the 1980s helped spark the change needed for the country’s nuclear-free stance in the Pacific.

With protests, such as those that happened with the Rainbow Warrior, bombed by French secret agents on 10 July 1985, New Zealand was able to stand up for smaller Pacific nations.

Pacific Media Centre director Professor David Robie says the country was standing up to the bigger countries.

“What pushed NZ in the direction it did with the nuclear free approach … was the masses of activism, of just ordinary people, people getting out on their boats on Auckland harbour for example,” he says in a new video report released today by the Pacific Media Centre.

“It was people rising up and saying, look, we don’t want this, we want to be independent, we want to have our voice.”

Selwyn Manning, editor of eveningreport.nz and who made a documentary about New Zealand’s nuclear-free policy, Morality of Argument, says the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior brought the nation together.

“It galvanised the resolve of the whole country to fight back against this and certainly politically for that idea to be entrenched in our legislation.”

But in today’s political environment, independent filmmaker Philip Shingler, producer of the 1988 Alister Barry documentary Niuklia Fri Pasifik, says it’s difficult to keep the media interested in these issues.

“It’s very interesting that television commissioning editors … have said to me quite often, ‘well we’ve done the Pacific this year’, and I say, ‘well this is a third of the planet”.

Auckland University of Technology journalism and television students have been researching and reporting on the Rainbow Warrior as a prelude to the 30th anniversary of the bombing.

A microsite has been established by Little Island Press as testimony to the humanitarian voyage to Rongelap in the Marshall Islands in May 1985.

Niuklia Fri Pasifik at NZ On Screen

Eyes of Fire microsite

More information about the EOF book

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TDB Political Caption Competition

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The Daily Blog Open Mic Sunday 21st June 2015

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openmike

 

Announce protest actions, general chit chat or give your opinion on issues we haven’t covered for the day.

Moderation rules are more lenient for this section, but try and play nicely.

 

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House Prices, Interest Rates and Money

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On 11 June, Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler reduced the Official Cash Rate (of interest) from 3.5% to 3.25%, with a promise of more reductions to come. Not a big deal in itself, but an action imbued with plenty of meaning. In essence, Wheeler has diagnosed that we need to take on more debt to maintain the health of our economy. We need money to move more, and to sit around less.

Generally this action has been welcomed, but the caveat is that most commentators believe that this will further boost the Auckland housing market.

The reality is that banks must earn income through lending and gathering interest from their customers. Otherwise, to pay interest to depositors, they would be running Ponzi schemes. (Ponzi finance is borrowing by a middleman to pay interest, as distinct from earning interest to pay interest.) So the banks, in order to earn interest, would be lending into the housing market regardless of the rate of interest.

What the reduced OCR (Official Cash Rate) does is make it easier for banks to make loans to businesses who do not have the security that property gives (albeit deceptively) to mortgage lending. What banks need to do – for their sake as well as ours – is to find business borrowers who are neither property speculators nor dairy farmers.

From 2003 to 2008, the OCR was raised from 5% to 8.25%. It had no impact whatsoever on rising house prices. If fact the rising OCR, perversely, probably fuelled the property speculation of that time. By discouraging lending to the tradable sector in particular, adversely affected by an exchange rate whose rise was linked to the high and rising OCR, the banks chose to raise the proportion of their lending that went into the housing market. That in turn increased the (artificial and temporary) capital gains on housing, thereby making interest rates of over 8% increasingly acceptable both to speculative house buyers and to banks blinded by what they saw as increasing collateral.

In those days, around 2007, ordinary bank deposits were fetching 8%. (Some people even felt that an unearned 8% was less than they were entitled to; they got greedy and went for 10% at Hanover.) Someone had to pay those 8% interest rates. The interest payers included the highly leveraged mortgagors thinking they were clever property wizzes. Clearly the bubble wouldn’t last. (The interest payers also included the poor customers of the money shops.)

Lending to people on the security of financial assets is insensitive to interest rates. Lending to productive businesses is much more connected to the rate of interest. Lower interest rates enable banks to better perform their social function – of facilitating the moving of money through the real economy of goods and services.

At 3.25%, wholesale interest rates in New Zealand remain far too high. When we think of debt as simply trade across time – which is precisely what debt is – in the 2010s’ global environment we have too many people not wanting to buy stuff today but thinking they might want to buy stuff tomorrow. It means that the true price in New Zealand of spending today is closer to 0% than to 3%. Indeed, in the world as a whole, negative interest rates are required to get people to buy today what today’s employed workers are producing.

Speculators are people who think that assets such as city land are just a way of making money as if money was actual wealth. They are people who already have more money than they can usefully use, so they use it uselessly to gather unto themselves even more money that they cannot usefully use. Rising house prices in cities such as Auckland are a consequence of global inequality, not local interest rates.

Money is a technology, not a commodity. Money works best when it is not overpriced, and when it is possessed by people who will spend it. Watch this space for more about what money really is, and isn’t.

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Is Colin Craig’s demise Dirty Politics 4.0?

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If we conclude the Donghua Liu manufactured smear against Cunliffe by the NZ Herald was Dirty Politics 2.0 (more on that next weekend) and Rachel Glucina pretending to be a PR expert and not a Journalist for the NZ Herald to get access to Amanda Bailey was Dirty Politics 3.0, Is Colin Craig’s demise Dirty Politics 4.0?

Here’s the image that made me suspicious…

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…that’s Cameron Slater at a public event. David Farrier posted it at Colin Craig’s announcement that he was stepping down. Ever since the mounting Court action against Slater, he has been doing everything to avoid getting served papers so for him to come out into public  means something is afoot.

This was after Slater had published a screwed up ‘poem’ supposedly from Colin to a woman Slater wouldn’t name but handed to him by a ‘friend’ of the woman who had been supporting her.

After some digging how about we start asking some impertinent questions?

1: Is the source to Slater who is pretending to be a ‘friend’ to this woman an individual who appears numerous times in ‘Dirty Politics’?

2: Is that same individual also close friends with a person who is currently attempting to take the leadership of the Conservative party off Colin Craig?

3: Does this individual have a track record of using personal information to force changes of leadership in political parties for their own interests?

4: Why are mainstream media journalists using these exact same Dirty Politics sources to enable these people?

It’s almost as if no one learned anything from Dirty Politics because the exact same people are doing the exact same things.

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The Likely Contenders For Conservative Party Leadership – Meet The New Con … Same As The Old Con?

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So yesterday, I marveled at the stupidity of the Conservative Party plotting to roll its own leader/founder/funder/best-shot-at-getting-into-Parliament.

At the time, this was in no small part due to the difficulty I figured they’d have in replacing Craig as leader of their party.

Well, Colin’s done the potentially honourable (slash unthinkable) thing and stood down in advance of a Conservative board meeting that was tipped to roll him. They’ve moved the vote back in light of this to next Saturday according to Jordan Williams on twitter; and at this stage, it’s anyone’s guess as to who’ll step into the ring to contend for the leadership.

So, without further adieu … let’s meet the likely challengers.

First up, there’s Colin Craig. The No-Brainer option. Literally. For proof of this, see his political career for much of the last three years, featuring everything from suing our best-known and most-loved satirical website through to the Moonlandings/Chemtrails fiasco and various claims about the hereditary nature of sin expressed in the genes of short employees during compulsory prayer meetings at his company. There was also the time at Auckland University wherein, in a vain attempt to argue against equality of marriage, he quite literally got his balls out on stage. (a rugby ball, and a soccer ball, in a sack, for the record)

Quite literally a laughingstock. Arguably slightly insane. Insufferably earnest. Still probably both the most reasonable-for-the-rest-of-the-population and logical-for-the-party contender. Scary.

Next, the man I love to hate and whom the New Zealand judicial system can’t seem to get enough of … John Archibald Banks. On the face of it, a damn near PERFECT contender and candidate. Has a huge swathe of political experience at both the Parliamentary and local body levels – something Colin definitely lacks. Can preach just about any abjectly silly and spurious creed with an *absolutely straight face* (for example his continuous claims that he was innocent in the donations scandal – and more worryingly, protestations that he intended to stand for Parliament in the 2014 Election; or that ACT’s arch-neoliberal creed contained the answers for child poverty). Has a demonstrable track-record and history as a conservative-bigot icon, memorably praying in Parliament against the passage of the Homosexuality Reform bill in 1986 … and subsequently describing the act of shoving barbed wire up the arse of a gay man as a waste of barbed wire. Is presently short of a party. Would hopefully mean he wouldn’t make yet another run at Auckland Mayoralty.

Unfortunately for his prospects in the Conservatives (and much to my pleasant surprise and admiration), he voted for equality of marriage.

Probably an outsider at this stage, but a semi-credible one at that.

Third, Christine Rankin. Otherwise known as the Conservative Party’s Buddhist fig-leaf limply plastered on to the front of its massive great honking conservative Christian agenda. On the pro-side, she’s easily the second most recognizable political “brand” associated with the Conservatives after Colin Craig. Allegedly smart. Handily counteracts misogyny claims by being .. well .. a woman. In a position of relative power and influence within the Conservatives. Who isn’t Rachel MacGregor. Has a personal history and lifestyle that would certainly put the damper on allegations that the Conservative Party are all staid, arch-moralistic types. If Colin’s isn’t doing that already 😛

Might potentially rile some of their more *ahem* conservative base with all of the above and the fact that she’s a city-based former bureaucrat.

Probably the most realistic immediate non-Colin option.

Fourth. Maurice Williamson. Probably an outsider-so-far-outside-he’s-in-the-outhouse contender due to his Big Gay Rainbow Over Pakuranga speech in Parliament when voting for Marriage Equality … but then again, as his flirtation with ACT proves – he’s looking for another party. Quite possibly ANY other party.

In much the same way as John Banks, brings with him a wealth of Parliamentary political experience – and if he runs for Cons leader, it’ll safely keep him away from a stab at the Auckland Mayoralty. Has also recently started taking on the Government (of all people – you know, that thing he’s nominally part of) in Parliament over Auckland transport issues. Is clearly cruising for a bruising and might feel he arguably has little to lose by switching horses. Williamson’s seat of Pakuranga also represents a potentially strong base of Conservative Party support, with the local Conservative candidate racking up an impressive three and a half thousand votes on Polling Day last year.

If the Cons can look past his earlier and ardent support for equality of marriage, Williamson might make a surprisingly good fit. He’d certainly gel well with their more right-wing economic elements; and he looks set to be on the outer with his own present part for quite some time yet anyway. Would also bring with him something no other contender would be able to match: his own semi-portable electorate seat. It’s not entirely inconceivable that Williamson’s personal popularity would see him able to take his holding in Pakuranga with him over to the Boys in Lighter Blue – and thus grant them a phenomenally easy vehicle into Parliament via a by-election. This would also be a potentially shrewd move by National if they only put up a token resistance – they’d gain an extra support partner fundamentally well-disposed to their agenda and lead by a semi-pliant former stooge. All for the cost of … well, nothing in particular, really – a somewhat renegade back-bencher.

A smart choice for both National and Conservative parties, but we’ll see what eventuates.

Finally, there’s Sensible Sentencing Trust head honcho Garth McVicar. Apparently seen by many ranking Cons as the natural successor to Colin, given they’ve now approached him as an alternate option AND pushed him in the media for same at every coup attempt they’ve made since the last Election. Managed a VERY credible 7603 votes in the Napier electorate back in 2014 – about half of winning candidate and provincial Labour man Stuart Nash, and only a little under four thousand behind the second placed National candidate. Brings with him an excellent and virtually tailor-made personal brand that would fill a natural hole in Kiwi politics that’s been left somewhat unoccupied since ACT stopped being *quite* so silly about law-and-order-issues-that-apply-to-people-who-aren’t-their-own-MPs.

Unfortunately, he appears to have ruled himself out of the running. Not just this time, either – but also the last time it was offered to him on a silver-spooned platter back in March of this year. Probably, therefore, not a goer. Doesn’t want to damage the Sensible Sentencing Trust by leaving them in the lurch to take time off to do Parliamentary politics again, by the looks of things.

Then again, things might change between now and next Saturday.

All things considered, this is hardly likely to be a complete list. I would almost bet that I’ve missed more than a few semi-big names who’d either be interested in putting their hands up for a ready-made political party in the vainglorious hopes of being Mr (or Miss, potentially) Right and managing to finally succeed where Colin’s failed in taking it to Parliament.

Will be interesting to see what comes out of the woodwork.

And get ready to laugh accordingly.

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Like Mike – Rich CEOs and Unlicensed Maori Drivers

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