Why I think TOP won’t support National, ACT or NZF
First up, I’m a working class socialist so I am NOT voting for TOP, but TDB was the first to recognise that TOP would break the 5% threshold this year and that’s why I’ve written so many blogs on TOP and why I have had Qiulae on The Bradbury Group more than anyone else.
We argued that the unique elasticity of MMP causes reactions to extremism.
We argued that the negative and malicious culture war spite from NZF would generate a backlash.
If you are an urbane, educated National voting person living in Auckland, Wellington or Christchurch, you find the weakness of Luxon to allow these redneck thugs in ACT and NZF to run the show as disgusting as the rest of us.
You know a vote for National is a vote to put Winston and his toxic garbage in as PM for 12 months.
For those right wingers, for the children of National voters who are too rich to vote Labour and too white to vote Green, TOP is your political vehicle the same way the Teals have been in Australia.
TOP also appeals to second generation migrant communities who want to be Kiwis yet feel alienated by the major parties, Qiulae’s optimism appeals to them and TOP policy appeals to all those Gen Xers who don’t own property.
Now.
I have been fortunate enough to talk to Qiulae privately many times and here is my assessment of her and TOP.
They are disrupters and believe in the reform they are promoting.
The difference between TOP and National, ACT and NZF is that they actually take climate change seriously, and it is essentially this issue that I believe makes it impossible for them to find common ground with National, ACT and NZF who at heart are all climate denial parties.
National is so in the pocket of the Big Polluters that they take secret direction when passing laws FFS.
That is an anathema to TOP.
In the background of TOP you have former National MP Jackie Blue who was scathing on the Coalition Governments pay parity kneecapping and Ian Lees-Galloway who is a former Labour MP.
TOP are drawing in support from disaffected cosmopolitan National voters and Blue Green supporters, these voters are rational and not into the calcified tribalism of old school Labour and National.
TOP have already declared on The Bradbury Group that their intentions are to start negotiating with the largest Party on election night, which will be Labour, so the Left have the first advantage.
The best outcome for the Left is a Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government, but to ensure TOP don’t rob TPM of any political leverage, the Kakariki Alliance between Greens/TPM must be in effect to guarantee the united negotiating front from Greens/TPM so TOP don’t simply push out TPM.
The Rights spiteful culture war garbage is the reason why TOP are rising and if they can be allies in building a better NZ, I welcome them to the fold.
If TOP decide however to hitch their wagon to National, they will see first hand how tribal politics really is because National will not and can not provide TOP with the climate change disruption they are promising, and dashed electoral hopes will sink TOP raising above 5% again.
Maybe I’m spending too much time thinking about this. It’s difficult to see TOP being an ally of the left for the following reasons.
They do not see the super wealthy as the villains.
They blame every home owner for the property boom not just the greedy land-lording type.
They fail to appreciate the concept of greedflation.
They are also in denial about where the basic income will end up.
They have written a free pass for farmers to escape any property tax.
It’s difficult not to see the ghost of Gareth Morgan here.
TOP are National-lite if TOP become King Maker, TOP will return the Luxon administration to the treasury benches.
I would put money on it.
” TOP are drawing in support from disaffected cosmopolitan National voters and Blue Green supporters, these voters are rational and not into the calcified tribalism of old school Labour and National ”
Ok so these people are right wing and their sympathies will be center right not center left.
” TOP have already declared on The Bradbury Group that their intentions are to start negotiating with the largest Party on election night, which will be Labour, so the Left have the first advantage ”
Firstly Labour is in no way left as has been pointed out numerous times. So that won’t be a problem should Labour be the largest party because economically they are comfortable with that direction. That will mean that the people who vote for TOP will want to continue with the same economic approach with a few less hard edges.
MMP requires that coalitions can be formed without including the largest party as was the case in 2017. The first time this took effect after its introduction in 1996 after FFP unofficially continued with the two main parties still dominating.
Qiulae and her colleagues should bear that in mind when it comes to the make up of parliament after all the votes are counted.
“….Ok so these people are right wing and their sympathies will be center right not center left.” Mat
Agree Mat
“TOP have already declared on The Bradbury Group that their intentions are to start negotiating with the largest Party on election night, which will be Labour, so the Left have the first advantage.” Martyn Bradbury.
This is the right answer to the wrong question.
“MMP requires that coalitions can be formed without including the largest party as was the case in 2017.” Mat
A better question to put to TOP politicians;
If the right form the largest bloc, but a TOP coalition with the smaller Left bloc would give the Left bloc the necessary numbers to form a government.
Is it Top’s intention to still start negotiating with the largest bloc?
” TOP are drawing in support from disaffected cosmopolitan National voters and Blue Green supporters, these voters are rational and not into the calcified tribalism of old school Labour and National ”
Ok so these people are right wing and their sympathies will be center right not center left.
” TOP have already declared on The Bradbury Group that their intentions are to start negotiating with the largest Party on election night, which will be Labour, so the Left have the first advantage ”
Firstly Labour is in no way left as has been pointed out numerous times. So that won’t be a problem should Labour be the largest party because economically they are comfortable with that direction. That will mean that the people who vote for TOP will want to continue with the same economic approach with a few less hard edges.
MMP requires that coalitions can be formed without including the largest party as was the case in 2017. The first time this took effect after its introduction in 1996 after FFP unofficially continued with the two main parties still dominating.
Qiulae and her colleagues should bear that in mind when it comes to the make up of parliament after all the votes are counted.
It has nothing to do with other parties and tribalism and power and so on, it’s much simpler: their current members, supporters and candidates are overwhelmingly supporting a left-bloc. The talk of centrism was real in the past but now is just marketing.
If Q and co sign with Luxon/Seymour/Peters, there will be apoplexy in their very progressive ranks.
Top will need to align themselves with the Left as it is clear they don’t have many policies that are in sync with the Right, however that is their choice. The more fair, kind, caring and intelligent people running our lovely NZ, the more chances we have of giving everyone a better life. Top appear to have thought deeply about the road they wish to see NZ on, so aligning themselves with the Left is their only sensible option as they will still have a voice and a respected one at that! Moral stature is our only way out of this current, ugly, corrupt and spite-filled mess. Make sure you are enrolled and have a strong desire to bring NZ back to how it once was.
I hear ya. TOP were set up by Mr Morgan to find an evidence based position on each issue and I believe if they can get two of their policies over the line in the first term the NZ public will be clamouring for more in the next election. The big one for me would be the UBI. This is the circuit-breaker NZ politics has needed for soooooooo long