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GUEST POST: Pat O’Dea – The time has come….

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Do pigs have wings?

The time has come the walrus said to speak of many things:

“The time has come,” the Walrus said,
“To speak of many things:
Of shoes–and ships–and sealing-wax–
Of cabbages–and kings–
And why the sea is boiling hot–
And whether pigs have wings.”

The Jabberwocky

Lewis Carrol’s famous children’s poem asks two specific questions – One; Why is the sea boiling hot? And Two; Whether pigs have wings?

(While it may not be boiling), We know that sea temperatures have been the highest in recorded history.

We also know the reason:

The reason is global warming – Brought about by the emission of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels. It is recognised by governments around the world and the international scientific community, that climate change has dangerously raised the temperature of the oceans, (as well as the rest of the biosphere).

But, as to the second question:

Do pigs have wings?

This is the question I want to address with this essay.

Winged pigs are a common metaphor, or adynaton for something impossible, unlikely, or improbable.

Recently we have had a tour of this country by eminent climate change expert Guy McPhearson, who tells us (rightly in my opinion) that humanity have passed the point of no return, that irreversible climate breakdown, (a catastrophe on a global scale, ushering in widescale extinctions, even possible human extinction, within a matter of decades), has begun. To describe this process Guy McPhearson has coined the phrase “Near Term Human Extinction” (NTHE)

Guy McPhearson admits to the reality of (NTHE) with acceptance and even mourning.

‘It is no one’s fault’, says McPhearson, ‘most of the damage was done before many of us were even born.’

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Guy-McPherson/200473870003415

Guy McPhearson is not the only one to have reached this conclusion, Paul Kingsnorth founder of the Dark Mountain Project has a similar ethos. Paul Kingsnorth goes even further, actively condemning those trying to organise a fightback against climate change, naming people like Naomi Klein and Bill McKibbon of 350.org, and accusing them of peddling (false) “Hopium”, even of “Lying to people”.

There's a classic letter published in the Guardian today criticising Dark Mountain for its 'nihilism', 'doomsday…

Posted by The Dark Mountain Project on Thursday, 13 November 2014

So can pigs fly?

Can we humanity get out of the impossible situation that it finds itself in?

Or like in the horror movie franchise Saw, are we collectively caught in a horrific sadistic trap, partly of our own devising, impossible to escape from?

Should we even try? Or should we, like some have suggested, accept our collective fate and go into a period of individual and collective mourning?

When it comes to climate change there is an extreme wide range of views; From denial: – ‘It is not happening’. To acceptance: – ‘It is happening, but if we act now, we can prevent it getting any worse’. To despair: – ‘It has already happened, and there is nothing we can do about it’.

There has been no real rational debate between the different factions. All seem to have a deep emotive hatred of the others.

And why not? NTHE is an emotive issue. How could it not be?

This has resulted in lot of misunderstanding, heated accusations, emotive name calling, denial, and talking past each other. Egotism, (on all sides), hasn’t helped.

An example; the debate between well known activist George Monbiot. And Paul Kingsnorth of Dark Mountain, degenerated into personal abuse and accusations of condoning genocide on one side, to lying on the other.

Kingsnorth/Monbiot Debate

The central contentious issue of debate, from all sides is whether, we should do anything about climate change, and will it make any difference if we don’t?

Springing from this first question, (and related to it), is a secondary question,
If we do decide to do something about climate change, what should it be?

1/ Is there any point in doing something?

2/ If there is any point in doing something, what should that something be?

I would like to address the second question first.

This may seem like a back to front way of doing things, but I want to leave the main question of whether we should do anything at all, until the last.

Disclaimer: The following are my views and my views only, I invite others to critique them and tear them to bits and in so doing offer up better solutions and stratagems and pathways forward.

Preamble:

(I) The Blame Game

I remember when I first became aware of the issue of climate change. The issue of climate change was first raised in the 1990s mass media, news paper editorials and TV news as a world problem, at that time the problem was couched in the language of “its all your fault”. You as an individual are responsible. You drive a car, you use air travel, you use disposable products, you use electricity. “Its all your fault” was drummed into us. Obviously this sort of language is pretty diss-empowering, and most people just shrugged and feeling disempowered carried on with their lives. But when enough people did take the message seriously and tried to make personal changes, and found they couldn’t, or it was making zero difference, they eventually began to ask other questions. Why when I cut down my CO2 emissions, do huge factories and industries continue pouring out hydrocarbons that make my individual efforts pointless? Why is there no decent public transportation so that I am forced t
o use a private car? Why am I forced to use disposable plastic products?

What people came to realise is that climate change is a public policy issue not a matter of personal choice at all.

(II) How Does Change Happen?

I am 56 years young. I remember the first time I ever saw plastic waste on a beach. I was about ten years old, sitting on the sand above the tide line at Mission Bay, Auckland. Pushing my hand into the sand, looking more closely, I marveled at the unusual small plastic oblate sphericals about a quarter inch in diameter (2mm) mixed in amongst the golden yellow sand grains which was mostly made up of tiny shell fragments. What were these smooth little plastic balls, and how did they get there?

I learnt later that they were the feedstock for New Zealand’s growing plastics industry, and were being imported in mass in the holds of ships, where they were being spilled into the harbour on unloading. (In the days before containerisation, I imagine that this was a much more messy business.)

When I was a kid, plastic was still a novel product. I remember the first big plastic doll I ever saw which had come from America as gift for a neighboring girl. We all marveled as she showed us how it closed its eyes when you laid it down and cried when you pulled the cord in its back. Most other toys then were made of wood, or metal. Balls were made of leather, or rubber. Raincoats were called mackintoshes after the material they were made of. Goods still came wrapped in brown paper and string, even things like tooth paste tubes were made of metal not plastic.

Rubbish tins were heavy metal bins with metal lids, you could hear the clatter of lids and bins made by the approaching dustmen, which gave you a warning if you had forgotten to get your rubbish out. The teams of dustmen were very fit, but there really was a lot less rubbish for them to pick up, I imagine that landfills were a lot more compact as well.

Shampoo and dishwashing liquid was unknown, my mother used to get me to wash the dishes with a piece of sunlight soap trapped in a little metal cage that you shook in the water until it became frothy. (Nowadays we use disposable, one use, plastic containers and plastic one use dishwashing and shampoo bottles. And this disposable plastic waste can be found washed up on even the most remotest beaches on earth)

Back in the day, drinks and liquids came in recyclable glass bottles – pints, quarts and flagons, you could even get half pints. (For bigger amounts, metal containers. In those days even canned drinks were unknown in New Zealand) The glass bottle was ubiquitous. For us kids though there was greater chance of getting your feet cut, but it was great, because there was a mandatory refund on every intact bottle. For the plastics industry to really get a hold in this country the refund had to be got rid of. I was about 12 when the legislation requiring mandatory refunds on glass bottles was abolished after fierce industry lobbying.

After that glass bottles became uneconomic in comparison, to one use, plastic containers.

Another example:

When I was a teenager my father worked for the education department in the Halsey Street warehouse in Freemans Bay which was a distribution point for educational supplies around the country. From my father I learnt that all government contracts over a certain distance (between cities) had to go by rail.
Again after intense lobbying by the roading and trucking interests this legislation was repealed.

After that highways became busier trunk lines were closed, tracks were lifted, thousands of rail workers were laid off.

I am sure there are many other examples of this. But the take-away message is this; laws and bylaws had to be passed, or repealed, to make the throwaway, polluting society, we know today. The same with the demolition of the public tram system and the beginning of the construction of the motorway system.

Law that can be made, can be unmade.

(II) The World Is A Big Place

Of course the changes happening in New Zealand society to make us a more polluting and wasteful place were not just happening here, they were happening world wide.

But it wasn’t like the a committee of world leaders got together and decided, this is how the world should be.

A few people somewhere decided these technologies were a good idea, (and they were at the time), and they just spread.

This is how the change will come as well.

So forget about international conferences on climate change.

A lot of people are disappointed that forum, after forum, meeting, after meeting, international conference, after international conference. All the governments of the world can still not agree on how to tackle the problem of climate change.

But this is the way it has always been.

This is how it will always be.

The latest failed international conference on climate, convened in Lima last year, was just the latest of a long line of failed meetings of the world’s nation states to come to any agreement on climate change.

You can put money on the fact that the huge penultimate international conference on climate change to be convened in Paris later this year will also fail to come to any binding agreement to cut Green House Gas emissions.

A solution will never come from these international treaty negotiations, it never has, and it never will. Even the current head of the UN Ban Ki Moon senses it.

In the 1930s the precurser to the United Nations, the League of Nations, could not get international agreement on how to confront the rise of fascism, and this failure broke them. Just as the UN will fail to get international agreement on how to confront the rise of climate change, and that failure will probably break them as well.

In the 1930s human civilisation was in a global contest between totalitarianism and democracy.

Humanity are now in global contest with the physics of the climate.

In human affairs, big or small, what often makes the difference between resolute action and indecision and confusion, is leadership.

Just as the UN has failed to address this crisis, so did the League of Nations fail to address the big crisis of their time.

What turned the tide was when one (relatively) small plucky island nation decided to put up a fight regardless of the League of Nations, regardless of the other major powers inaction and capitulation, regardless that (at that time) defeat looked almost certain.

Just as the use of plastics and automobiles spread around the world around the world from one centre. Concerted action against climate will also spread from one centre.

Forget any hope of concerted global action arising out of international bodies like the UN, every country is on its own. The competition will be to see, which country by its resolute actions against climate change, becomes that world leader that sets an example which by its moral power the rest of the world will have to follow.

It is up to each citizen, political activist, community leader, and politician convinced of the danger, in whichever country we are from, to push for our country to become that world leader.

For us here in New Zealand we are better placed than many to take that role.

70% of our power is generated by renewables, we need to make that 100%.

Coal plays a very small part of our economy, we need to make that nil by the end of the decade.

We could be that country that by our actions makes that necessary statement to the world that it is possible to move away from fossil fuels.

Winston Churchill once said, “Grab onto one big idea and never let go of it.”

James Hansen has said, “If we can’t get rid of coal it is all over for the climate.”

New Zealand which once had huge asbestos industry has completely eliminated asbestos from our economy, we could easily do the same for coal, to become the world’s first coal free nation.

This could be our big statement to the world.

(III) So how could we go about it?

On a per capita basis New Zealand is the worlds biggest subsidiser of the the fossil fuel industry, we could cancel all the fossil fuel subsidies immediately and pour the money instead into subsidising renewables.

We could mobilise the workforces of the coal mines, and Huntly and Tiwai into building and operating wind and solar energy stations, and other renewable energy technologies.

We could forget about aspiring to become fast followers.

New Zealand could become the global leader on tackling climate change.

Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter, Australia has, per capita the highest level of green house emissions.

Undeniably, Australia our closest physical and cultural neighbor, is one of the worst polluters in the world. But because of the nearness of the two nations, both cultural and geographic, resolute action taken in New Zealand, would have political ramifications in Australia.

Why?

Because as well as being, one of the worst polluters, Australia is one of the worst effected countries by climate change, and many Australians are worried (even frightened). Latest polls show that 6 out of 10 Australians don’t think their government is doing enough about climate change. All these concerned Australians need, is lead from their cultural cousins across the Tasman to turn their disquiet into a demand that could not be ignored by Australia’s policy makers and business leaders.

From Australia the fight back will spread to the world.

This is how the war will be won.

(IV) So where should we start?
Both the New Zealand Green Party and the Mana Movement policy is “No new coal mines”.

Just as the campaign against nuclear ships was won on the ground first.

Activists from the Greens and Mana, and others, have been putting the agreed policy of ‘No New Coalmines’ into practice on the ground.

After an epic two year battle, these activists have fought Fonterra to a standstill, over Fonterra’s plan to develop a new coal mine at Mangatangi, just south of Auckland.

But despite being beaten at Mangatangi, Fonterra have not given up on coal, and have decided to source coal from Solid Energy, the technically insolvent government coal company.

To meet Fonterra’s demand, Solid Energy have decided to reopen an abandoned coal mine at Maramarua 5k down the road from Mangatangi.

If the activists can stop the Maramarua coal mine on top of stopping the Mangatangi coal mine; Make no mistake, this will be a stake through the heart of the coal mining industry in this country, representing a major milestone on the way to making New Zealand completely coal free.

Nothing succeeds like success. Just as the successful protest campaign against nuclear ship visits, used the victory on the ground to leverage this into government policy. We again have the ability of achieve legislation which will have wide ranging international implications.

There are a number of other contenders to be this signature victory against climate change in this country, but in my opinion they do not have the same potential for achieving a signature game-changing-knockout victory on climate change that the proposed Maramarua coal mine has.

The other New Zealand contenders for a signature victory against climate change are:

– The Denniston Coal Mine in the South Island.

– The campaign against deep sea oil drilling.

Both these above campaigns have been handicapped by the tyranny of distance.
Just like applied in gorilla warfare, climate change activists need to concentrate our forces where our opponents are weakest and where we are strongest, that has always been near the main population centres. Maramarua fits this bill.

The other thing about Maramarua, is that it can only be fought on climate change grounds, there are no environmental issues, the climate change message cannot be confused, or adulterated by being mixed with environmental concerns.

If this battle epic battle against climate change in this country is not fought and won at Maramarua it can not be fought and won anywhere.

(IV) (And so for the question I have left til last). Should we even bother?

Both the Deniers and the Doomers have one thing in common, both believe (albeit for different reasons) that there is nothing to be done about about climate change.

Are they wrong? Are they right?

In my opinion if something can be done, it should be done.

Some of my closest friends and advisers tell me that the doomers are right. “There is nothing that any of us can do that will make a difference.”

The time has come, for us to find out!

 

Pat O’Dea is the Mana Movement spokesperson for climate change.

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Is it over for the Greens?

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With MANA knocked out of the election by Labour, the Greens are the only political Party left standing that have any real answers to the inequality and environmental problems that we face as a country but the machinations of NZ politics means that they may be locked out of the power of parliament forever.

The weak showing for the Greens at the last election was written off by Russell Norman as all the fault of Internet-MANA, that seems more a blame game than reality. The Greens have become a Wellington Party rather than nation wide party and are suffering because of that.

I helped start up MANA 5 years ago because Labour + Greens could never make it over 50% without needing NZ First. NZ First will always be a conservative brake peddle against any truly progressive politics.

With Labour now chasing the middle, the Greens find themselves at risk of getting politically snookered again.

It was a scenario that was quietly bubbling away at the least election.

If Labour + Greens don’t equal over 50%, then they need NZ First. If Winston is in the mix he will want a Labour-NZ First minority Government with just the Greens as a support Party. This strategy will be the preferred option of Labour who showed last election how focused they are to killing off any real left wing politics.

To avoid this political castration, the Greens need to kit 15% and Labour need to hit 36%. With Polls showing the sleepy hobbits of muddle Nu Zilind still love John Key, those totals 3 years out from the 2017 election look optimistic in the extreme.

Far more likely is Labour and NZ First cutting a deal that leaves the Greens out in the cold again.

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The sanctimonious love fest for a cruel and evil Saudi Dictator

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Can you believe the wave of bullshit that has been lavished upon the the new Saudi Dictator by world leaders?

This attempt to portray the last Saudi Dictator as some sort of moderate and the attempt to portray the next Saudi Dictator as a moderate is so shameful it should become some sort of drinking game for those wishing to commit suicide via alcohol poisoning.

Saudi Arabia’s ruling elite use a warped version of Islam to keep a vicious hand on the throat of any freedoms and is the largest source of terrorist funding next to America on the entire planet.

The only reason we suck up to them and don’t bomb them the way Key has convinced us we need to bomb ISIS is because our allied buy oil off the Saudi’s.

The West’s hypocrisy at lauding the Saudi’s form of brutal Islam while demanding war for the ISIS form of brutal Islam is a sick joke.

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Gen Xers and Gen Y locked out of property ownership forever

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Dream fading for many as ownership in some regions tipped to fall below 50%
Many of today’s middle-aged and young people face the prospect of never owning a house, as a study warns that home ownership rates could drop below half in some parts of New Zealand within 20 years.

The research – the first long-term regional analysis by age using 2013 census data – shows home ownership rates in some regional household types have plunged by more than 40 percentage points since ownership peaked at 73.8 per cent in 1991.

It traces ownership rates by age group, showing for example that the home ownership rate for Aucklanders born in 1961-66 peaked at 65.3 per cent in 2006, when they were aged 40 to 44, and slipped back slightly to 64.6 per cent by 2013, when they were aged 45 to 49.

Is it any surprise that Gen Xers and Gen Y are now effectively locked out of property ownership? Having to pay for their own higher education, having to save for their own retirement, having to try and scrape together the money for a deposit in a  housing market dominated by property speculators and all in an economic landscape that gives the subdivided middle classes of NZ an illusion of wealth that they will never want deflated by a Capital Gains Tax?

Once upon a time the promise of democracy was that you could look into the face of your child and know that they will get better than what you had, today after 30 years of neoliberalism the promise of NZ democracy is that you can look into the face of your child and know they will live a life of debt and die before they ever repay it.

We have traded poverty for the servitude of debt. New Zealanders had an option at the election to try and change this, to reverse the inequality that now riddles our society like cancer. Internet-MANA were championing 20 000 new state houses, free tertiary education, free public transport, feeding every poor child in every poor school and making internet access a right.

Sadly the majority of NZ were swayed by a contaminated right wing corporate media who for the last 6 years were working hand in glove with the dirty ops department of the Prime Minister’s Office via modern day populist fascist Cameron Slater and decided that it was Kim Dotcom who was trying to influence the election, and not the National Party.

Labour’s plan to build 100 000 houses for the children of the middle classes does nothing to stop this generational theft. I don’t want to change the Government like my tired friends at The Standard, I want a changed Government.

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Andrew Little at Ratana – ignoring the battle to win the war

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Andrew Little was one giant flop at Ratana, but that was always going to be the outcome.

Andrew Little survives at Ratana but Peters steals show
Andrew Little has survived his first address to Maori at Ratana but was well and truly upstaged by NZ First leader Winston Peters when it came to wooing the nannies.

The balancing act that Little was attempting wasn’t going to be easy. On the one hand he had to pay enough lip service to Maori to recognise Maoridom’s latest infatuation with the labour Party from the last election. Without a swing from Maori, Labour’s election result would have been even more dire. Seeing as Labour are the Party who confiscated more land than any other political party in NZ history with the stealing of the foreshore and seabed legislation, Maoridom are being very optimistic.

So Andrew said the the things that needed to be said to keep Ratana happy, but of course he couldn’t do much more than that because the target for 2017 is the infamous middle of NZ politics. That beige subdivided middle class who when push comes to shove are quickly heard around the cheeseboard saying ‘I’m not racist but’. Labour can’t spook the middle by having any strong voice for Maori.

Little ignored the battle today so that he has a chance of winning the war in 2017.

Personally I don’t want a change in Government, I want a changed Government.

Thank God the Greens showed some spine.

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To Lunchtime And Beyond! Why there’s no more loyal servant of the Anglo-Saxon Empire than the New Zealand National Party

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THERE IS A REASSURING CONSISTENCY about the prejudices of the National Party. No matter how thick the spin-doctors and PR specialists apply the lacquer of moderation to the institution’s exterior, the reactionary timber beneath just keeps rotting away.

Nowhere is the utterly unreconstructed nature of National’s political mission more apparent than in the fraught arena of war and peace – and the antiquated diplomatic instincts such crucial foreign policy issues excite in what passes for the National Party’s intelligentsia.

The first real hint we got of just how atavistic those instincts might be came with Dr Don Brash’s infamous “gone by lunchtime” quip to a group of US officials back in January 2004. Clearly, the National Party had only ever paid lip-service to New Zealand’s anti-nuclear stance. Yes, it had embraced a Nuclear-Free New Zealand as far back as 1990, but, clearly, the party’s conversion to foreign policy independence was in all respects cosmetic.

Dr Brash’s comment that the policy would be “gone by lunchtime” in the event of a National Party victory in 2005, showed that National’s MPs were only willing to wear the T-Shirt because that was part of what it took to regain power. The moment they got their feet under the Cabinet Table, however, all such left-wing fripperies would be headed straight for the incinerator – “by lunchtime – probably”.

In marked contrast to Dr Brash, the present National Prime Minister has displayed an admirable forbearance in the matter of New Zealand’s anti-nuclear stance. Six years after he was swept into office, John Key has yet to initiate anything resembling a serious review (let alone repeal) of New Zealand anti-nuclear legislation.

Is this because Mr Key is a convert to anti-nuclearism? Has the Prime minister embraced the independent spirit of Norman Kirk’s foreign policy and learned, finally, “the trick of standing upright here”? Well, no. His refusal to get all het up about nuclear weapons and nuclear power is because he understands that the big issues of the 1980s are not the big issues of the 20-teens.

Like any good blitzkrieg general, Mr Key has simply directed his armoured columns around such potentially dangerous obstacles. He knows that if he pushes past it far enough the anti-nuclear policy will begin to look like the diplomatic relic of some long dead foreign-policy consensus. When that eventually occurs, there will only be a handful of people who will notice, and even fewer who will care that, following some distant future lunchtime, the policy has gone.

And when it does, be in no doubt, the unreconstructed National Party stalwarts will all display wolfish grins of satisfaction. Those required to live through its creation, will be able to mentally tick-off yet another faded remnant of the Left’s policy legacy.

Just how eagerly the Right is anticipating that moment was revealed earlier this week (20/1/15) when the NZ Herald published an article by the National MP for Manawatu from 1978 to 1987, Michael Cox. EntitledClark’s sad legacy in ’84 affair shrinks UN hopes, the think-piece positively gloats over the presumed unwillingness of the USA and the UK to sanction Helen Clark becoming the next UN Secretary-General.

While careful to acknowledge Ms Clark’s undoubted strengths and eminent eligibility for the United Nations’ top job, Mr Cox warns his readers that it is at this point that “her positives” stop. This is because two of “the most powerful members of the Security Council, the United States and Britain, will not have forgotten that she led the charge that weakened Western resistance to the USSR during the Anzus debacle in 1984.”

It is difficult to recall a sentence more weighted-down with National Party ignorance and prejudice than this little gem.

Yes, both the US State Department and the Pentagon were pissed-off with New Zealand for breaking ranks in 1984, but they weren’t that pissed-off. By 1984 it was already clear that the Soviet Union had no plans to impede seriously the advance of the new, global, market-driven economic order. They were also well aware that when it came to providing examples for the world to follow, New Zealand’s sterling efforts in radical, top-down, market liberalisation far outshone her quaint, bottom-up, ban on all things nuclear.

To make his case against Ms Clark, Mr Cox draws heavily on the historical research of Gerald Hensely, Head of the Prime Minister’s Department under David Lange. In his book Friendly Fire, Mr Hensely suggests that it was well understood by the Americans that Ms Clark “accepted Roger Douglas’s right-wing financial policies [because] there had been a trade-off by which those on the Left, led by her, gained the mandate for the anti-nuclear ship policy in return for going along with his economic reform”.

If this is true (and as someone who was very active in the Labour Party Left during the 1980s, I’m not sure that it is) then both the Americans and the British will actually be more – not less – likely to back Ms Clark’s bid for the Secretary-General’s job. There is no better qualification for such a position than a proven record of making – and sticking-to – such Faustian political pacts.

Mr Cox does not see this. Like Mr Hensely, his sensibilities are those of a backwoods conservative raised on the uncompromising slogans of anti-communism, and whose loyalty to the global interests of the English-speaking peoples is absolute and unquestioning. In the eyes of such people, Ms Clark remains an oath-breaker and a quasi-traitor, whose disloyalty will never be forgotten, and certainly not forgiven, by the five “fingers” of the Anglo-Saxon fist.

Viewed from this perspective, Ms Clark’s 2003 refusal to let New Zealand’s armed forces join in the illegal invasion of Iraq would only have heaped more hot diplomatic coals upon her earlier, anti-nuclear, treachery.

For the Brits and the Yanks, however, it will be Ms Clark’s diplomatic behaviour in the aftermath of the Iraq War that really counts. Quite how Messers Cox and Hensely reconcile their blue-stockinged traitor with the woman the US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, called his “very, very, very good friend” is anybody’s guess.

What cannot be doubted, however, is that the National Party’s visceral attachment to the English-speaking brotherhood finds a more than worthy champion in the present prime-minister. His comment that New Zealand’s sending troops to train the Iraqi armed forces for their battle against the Islamic State, should be seen, simply, as “the price” we must pay for membership of the Anglo-Saxon “club”.

Making particular reference to the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing agreement, to which New Zealand is a signatory, the Prime Minister stated that it was important that his country was regarded as a reliable member of the club. Because, “we do know that, when it comes to the United States and Canada and Australia and Great Britain and others, that we can rely on them.”

And clearly, our “very, very, very good friends” (the 1984 “affair” notwithstanding) can still rely on us. Or, at least, on those of us who continue to vote, unwaveringly, for the New Zealand National Party.

 

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Dear Lynn Prentice – I have no interest in Scoop closing

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The old Troll under the bridge at the Standard has bitten back with a 1980’s BBC TV barb that once again reminds us of the cutting edge satire The Standard is so well known for. I shudder with fear at any possible Lynn Prentice use of biting George and Mildred pop cult references to take me down a peg or two.

Being lectured on blogging etiquette by Lynn Prentice when he allowed Pagani to do a hit job on one of his own bloggers is just silly really.

Beyond all the piss and vinegar a burn out like Prentice has thrown, is the reality he didn’t inform Greg of what was going to happen and Greg felt offended. Putting up with all the self justifications doesn’t erode that. The diversion has been focusing on my description of it as ‘an outing’  because it was well known within the blogging community who MickeySavage was, I agree, everyone within the community did, but you can’t seriously equate that to the over 800 000 people who visited the Standard in the election month reading Pagani squarely nailing Greg as all being aware of that. The prominence of the Pagani blog was far greater than the previous back chats amongst bloggers and regular commentators. The accusation of a lack of loyalty has clearly stung Lynn and it’s provoked some more acrimony.

We fell out during the election when he attacked my criticism of some ABCs in manoeuvring  against Cunliffe by using a social media attack over Queens Birthday weekend last year. Despite all Lynn’s lecturing then, it turned out that there were ABCs who were working to help Kelvin and kill off a progressive platform if it meant MANA had influence and some were sitting on their hands so Cunliffe’s leadership was doomed from the start.

That Prentice suddenly started mouthing off what those ABCs wanted as return fire and then the jumping of Presland by Pagani are certainly remarkable in their coincidence. We will have to take Lynn at his word that is the case.

In terms of the essence of your latest criticism that I didn’t bother with Alistair’s reply 1)- his reply is just nonsense and 2)because people always have the ability to go post whatever they want about me elsewhere. If people want to take their own meanings with their own bias on my blogs, well they can go stamp their feet somewhere else. I appreciate the Standard’s business model is endless discussions on pointless chat boards that are ego stroking for the regulars, but content is the focus here and issues specific to the debate are always allowed. It’s sweet that Lynn has set up a special blog to publish the comments that don’t get posted here and the usual suspects have all turned up like angry beige pensioners told they have to mow their own berms.

How twee.

The internet is a pretty vicious place, and I don’t bother making this blog a venue for much of that.

All this flag waving in terms of justifications by Lynn are charmingly aggrandising, but his decision to in the comments section suggest that I somehow have a interest in Scoop falling over is just make believe stuff by Lynn.

There’s no need to lie Lynn, that’s just Whaleoil tactics champ. The first time I ever spoke to Alistair Thompson was 2013 when I asked about the Scoop Advertising Cartel he runs which provides advertising for Scoop, The Standard and Public Address. You will remember I asked you about it at the time Lynn. I asked Alistair if he could guarantee that Scoop could pay the members their advertising share monthly, Alistair screamed abuse down the phone for about 10 minutes. I had asked because there was an infamous case of KiwiBlog being forced to leave because Scoop couldn’t pay Farrar.

It was at around the 9 and a half minute mark of Alistair’s 10 minute rant that I decided I would prefer to put blunt spoons into my eye than work with him.

I have noted the challenges facing Scoop, and think they have some issues. Scoop’s new project  is the latest discussion paper regarding public funding of news. It’s a discussion Selwyn Pellett and Bernard Hickey have been having.

Perhaps Al should have a chat with them?

Lynn’s suggestion that I somehow have an interest in Scoop going under is pretty X-Files which is ironic for someone who writes off everyone else’s disagreements as conspiracies.

Lynn is right however about our slow down over the holidays. We’ve all been stunned by how ruthless Labour was to a genuinely progressive political movement like MANA, but we’ll be back Lynn. Don’t you fret.

This year we have new bloggers joining, we have new features coming and we have more live shows planned.

I helped set up MANA so that the Left could win an outright majority with Labour and the Greens because NZ First have always traditionally been a conservative brake to progressive legislation. Labour/Greens/MANA could have passed legislation that would be able to make the investments into our social infrastructure deep enough to reach those at the bottom.

I championed Internet-MANA because getting 20 000 new state houses, feeding every hungry kid in every poor school, free tertiary education and making the internet a right for the poorest members of society costs a hell of a lot of money. It failed spectacularly in part to Labour and NZ First stabbing Hone in the back and a media feeding frenzy that turned Kim Dotcom into a James Bond Super Villain.

If NZ First + Labour + Greens = majority, Labour and NZ First will always form a minority Government and strong arm the Greens into a support arrangement. That’s the reality as it stands with those in there.

It will be Government a bit less crap than the one we have now.

If that’s the best Prentice has to offer as a political vision for the progressive left, then why bother at all?

A slightly less shit version of what we have now just isn’t enough.

That’s what this blog will continue to try and champion. A changed Government, not just a change of Government.

 

 

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Is it time to invade Saudi Arabia?

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If we are re-invading Iraq because the awful ISIS use medieval justice like beheadings and whipping and denigration of women and sexual and gender orientation rights, why aren’t we invading Saudi Arabia?

With their King dead, this destabilisation moment will be perfect to launch drone strikes and paramilitary units.

No?

The ever brilliant Gordon Campbell asks why Saudi Arabia isn’t perceived as the same threat as ISIS is…

For starters, compare this list of punishments to offenders recently published by Islamic State, with the almost identical list of punishments operant in Saudi Arabia, as tabulated by the Middle East Eye website.

Middle East Eye has compiled a useful chart. Blasphemy? Homosexuality? Treason? Murder? The punishment is death under both Islamic State and the House of Saud. Drinking alcohol? Slander? That’ll get you 80 lashes under IS, but is at the judge’s discretion in SA. Adultery if you’re married? Death by stoning under both IS and SA. Adultery if not married? 100 lashes under both IS and SA. Stealing? Amputation of right hand under both IS and SA. Banditry and theft? Amputation of the right hand and foot under both IS and SA. Banditry, murder and theft? Crucifixion under SA, death by beheading in SA.

Nor is this some residual, on-the-books but not actually practiced situation in Saudi Arabia. In recent weeks, the world has witnessed the repeated flogging and 10 year jail term imposed on Raif Badawi for the crime of blogging about the monarchy. Yet so far, there has been little of the global outcry we saw recently in France, about the sanctity of free speech. Je Suis Raif? Not so much. Then there was this account of an execution by sword of a woman on a street in Mecca, on January 12 which got publicised solely because it was videoed. The person who did it – the videoing, not the execution – has since been arrested.

Why is it that one form of Islamic oppression seems to be far nicer than another form?  Do we only go to war against those Islamic oppressors we don’t directly fund?

Rather than continuing to fund more and more radical fighters, couldn’t America just talk to Iran? Seeing as the Saudi’s and Iran are locked into a civil war against each other using regional proxies, couldn’t the US just sit down with Iran and straighten everything out and apologise for the whole coup thing back in the 50s?

Why is war always the answer, and why is it always the answer when there is oil?

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Of course the Greens should be political on a political day

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Greens use Ratana meeting to attack John Key

Politics soured the atmosphere at Ratana today as the Greens attacked Prime Minister John Key’s “warped and outrageous” grasp of history.

Unusually, all politicians were due to walk onto the marae south of Whanganui together as events marking the birthday of prophet T W Ratana ran late.

But that was where the unity ended.

Greens co-leader Metiria Turei used the occasion to berate Key – who is overseas – for his response to the first part of a landmark Waitangi Tribunal inquiry. 

“The prime minister’s response was to knock us several steps back,” she said in a speech to morehu [followers].

“John Key had the gall to claim that New Zealand was settled ‘peacefully’, as if all Maori grievances evaporated into irrelevance on his command.

 “But he didn’t finish there. In an attempt to really put us in our place, John Key said Maori would have been grateful for the injection of capital early Pakeha brought with them when they settled in Aotearoa.”

The Greens had no faith in the Treaty settlement process under National, she added.

Finance Minister Bill English hit back immediately saying the Greens were “a bit nasty when they can be” and “barking mad on Treaty settlements”.

 

Those upset the Greens actually have spine to be political at a political event is like an abusive parent demanding smiles at the xmas party. There is much to be angry about, National’s whitewash of history is just the start.

Interestingly Little at the end of this story does his calm humming and quiet agreement with the thrust of the position Key has taken by being overseas as Little’s continued pursuit of the gravitas of Executive Power tries to entice those in the middle who respect authority.

The Maori Affairs minister also did not see an issue with Key’s absence.

“You try and do the best you can. The prime minister has been here on a number of occasions, in fact ever since he’s been prime minister. He acknowledges that’s an important date, but if you can’t make it, you can’t make it.”

Little said it was important for the country that Key had a presence on the world stage. 

Greens will play youngish radical and Labour will play stable centre Dad.

 

 

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Renters Rights

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This is a story that is really a property managers wet dream wishful thinking wrapped up as news, Auckland rent increases unavoidable – expert but it reveals something that is distinctly nasty.

Barfoot and Thompson director Kiri Barfoot said they regularly reviewed rent prices.

They were in the business of pushing up rental prices for the landlords, Ms Barfoot said.

“Maybe we’re more proactive than someone who looks after [properties] themselves and just wants to get tenants in and doesn’t realise they can [increase rents].”

She said the 4.6 per cent increase in rent in the Auckland area was “modest”.

So Barfoot and Thompson are constantly hounding their clients and playing to their greed to artificially ramp up rent prices? The Free Market at it’s most pathologically ruthless.

How Charming.

We seem to have a system that only benefits those renting the property out. The ability to constantly push up rents due to desperation only entrenches the poverty of those locked into renting get caught on.

Our communities need diversity. State Housing and housing affordability for the poor needs to be seen as a civic obligation, not a slum lord pay day.

Families who can put down roots into their communities is essential for those communities to thrive, if the entire structure of the free market rental environment is built for property speculators, is it any wonder inequality is such a wound on our GDP?

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A Landlord can just give you 42 days written notice to evict you if a family member wants the rental, a loophole large enough to be able to drive a truck through.

Long term low rent accommodation is the solution, allowing the corporate greed monsters of Barfoot and Thompson to just graze on the fields of inequality while those with little get pushed to the fringes is not a solution.

The Government’s changes to the RMA are to just allow their developer mates to go crazy with urban sprawl. Because it’s the subdividing middle classes who have to deal with the RMA most, it’s their sense of grievance that drives the animosity to it. Those communities impacted by the moves have too little a voice in the media to counter this narrative.

The outcry to the zero tolerance speed ticket campaign is a case in point when regulation dares to tell the middle classes what the parameters are.

Renters are marginalised enough as it is, their rights need enshrining by a Political movement. The problem is that those very same subdividing middle classes get the only illusion of wealth from their over inflated property valuations and any attempt to give renters more rights would be met with a Kim Dotcom media feeding frenzy kind of response.

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OIA … TPP? FFS!

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Back in December, my comrade Harley Greenbrook decided to take the notion of open and transparent government seriously … and OIA’d Minister of Trade Tim Groser asking for anything and everything the Minister and his cohorts had on the TPPA (and, in specia, the drafts of the agreement themselves).

The response he got back was, quite frankly, laughable.

Now, given some of the recent and highly publicized incidences of a certain (sorry … *cetacean*) private citizen repeatedly OIA’ing the government and getting back *exactly* what he asked for – occasionally even *within the hour*, and *particularly* when it came to what was supposedly classified or otherwise extraordinarily sensitive information … Harley could, perhaps, be forgiven for expecting a similar level of *actual* response to his OIA request – rather than a paltry effort at abjuration that would disgrace the name of Thomas Jackson by referring to it as “stonewalling”.

National’s pretense of transparency around these issues is particularly galling given Groser’s confusing assertions in the letter that his government has been “open about the issues under negotiation” – or, more outrageously, that “the consultation processes for the TPPA have been among the most extensive a New Zealand government has undertaken for any trade negotiation.”

Oh really?

Given that National has fiercely resisted releasing the draft text for the TPPA – and thus, the scope and detail of the actual issues under discussion – even to Parliament (or, for that matter, lowly blog-based-citizen-journalists and other concerned citoyens) … I’m not *quite* sure how Groser’s curious statements square up with reality.

How do you meaningfully “consult” on something when the people you’re allegedly consulting with have no idea about the contents of the thing they’re being consulted on?

What’s “open” about being continually asked to blindly trust National’s assurances as to what’s really in there? I mean, it’s not like they’d have any demonstrable and vested interest in *lying wholesale* to the People of New Zealand in order to get the damn thing passed, is it? (Or, for that matter, a track-record of doing *exactly that* when it comes to other controversial legislation)

Why are they so incredibly eager to avoid any genuine transparency or scrutiny when it comes to the terms of the TPPA?

Would Cameron Slater have been more successful than Harley if *he’d* filed an OIA on the subject…

[If you don’t get why taking the government at its word about the TPPA is an issue, then the next few paragraphs are for you. For everyone else who’s *already* fundamentally distrusting of our government’s machinations as standard operating procedure, skip straight ahead to the heading marked “OIAs”.]

One of the reasons more than a million New Zealanders voted to change the electoral system in 1992, was because we were fulminatingly fed up with the fundamentally feudalist attitude to consultation and accountability displayed by each of the “big two” parties when it came to implementing myopic and manifestly masochistic economic policy.

We learned the hard way that if they’re trying to pass controversial or unpopular policy with far-reaching consequences, neoliberal governments *will* attempt to obfuscate and outright lie to the electorate in order to get the job done. (Labour, for instance, tried to invoke a deity called TINA to tell us that there was no alternative to innovatively applied economic destruction as a tool for “reforming” our economy in the 1980s; while National promised us in 1990 that they’d “Roll Back Rogernomics” … then gave us Ruthanasia instead once we’d voted for them)

That’s why the advent of MMP was so vitally important for constraining the neoliberal agenda; and why National was so incredibly eager to try and ditch it back in 2011. Because in a world where the government feels it can relegate notions of democratic accountability down to the harvesting of an apparently quasi-carte-blanche mandate in a figurative box-ticking exercise once every three years instead of meaningfully engaging with the electorate … it nevertheless remains (somewhat) answerable to Parliament. And, in contrast to willfully misleading the electorate, Misleading the House is something which posses actual and immediately enforceable consequences.

By refusing to release the terms of the TPPA to Parliament (despite other countries not exactly renowned for the transparency of their politics like Malaysia and the USA seeing the wisdom in letting their legislatures take a look at what they’re signing up to), the government is attempting to render impotent the main effective check or tool of scrutiny which the People of New Zealand have on the implementation of whatever new neoliberal nonsense National now appears hell-bent on signing us up for this time.

And, in situations such as the present one wherein the faculties and institutions of our Parliamentary political process appear to be rendered less able to protect us due to deliberate incapacitation through sabotage from on high … that doesn’t mean we simply surrender and allow the government of the day to do as it pleases.

I’m a great believer in the creedo that when the orthodox and institutional political system appears to comprehensively drop the ball on an issue, it’s the right and responsibility of the ordinary citizen to rise up and attempt to fix the situation.

(As an aside, this is one of the reasons why I’m an cautious advocate for a greater role for Direct Democracy in our system – as it affords an avenue by which popular opinion can circumvent complicit marginalization by pliant parties in Parliament. Given that it was precisely this sort of deliberate failure by the major parties to immanentize widespread popular opposition to Rogernomics and Ruthanasia that lead to over a million disgruntled Kiwis attempting to achieve with their votes in the 1992 electoral reform referendum the halt to the neoliberal revolution that their regular FPP votes in every election from 1984-90 had frustratingly failed to deliver; it makes a certain degree of sense to explore ways to let the electorate work *around* the Parliamentary parties *without* having to go straight for the nuclear option and threatening to overturn the electoral system entirely)
OIAs.

By filing his OIA and making an official demand for transparency on the TPPA from the government, that stepping up and unto the breach is exactly what Harley has done here.

Admittedly, given the fairly broad powers granted to officials under s6 and s9 of the Official Information Act 1982 to withhold information from applicants, getting access to the draft text of the TPPA through this mechanism was always incredibly unlikely. Although I also note that Harley’s OIA didn’t just request the drafts, but instead “all documentation” relating to the TPPA that the relevant Minister might have to hand.

This is a clever trick that may allow you to get something useful out of an OIA request even if the main focus of your inquiry is blocked from being released to you. Another one is to ask for a *list* of all documents on that subject held – which, apart providing helpful targeting information for your next OIA, also tells you handy things like whether they’ve bothered requesting cost-benefit or legislative impact analyses on a policy and what not (and therefore how far along a policy is, and how seriously they’re taking it). A third idea that’s particularly useful when OIA’ing the more *ahem* secretive government agencies, is to ask for the deletion date of files pertaining to information you’re pretty sure they *should* have, or *did* have, yet which appears to have vanished off into the ether. I believe those last two suggestions fall into the category of “metadata analysis” 😀

In retrospect, tightening up the phrasing on that part of Harley’s request might have been a wise move to minimize the Minister’s wiggle-room for playing silly buggers by ensuring that the specificity and particularity requirements under s12(2) were incontrovertibly met; but given Harley’s quite clearly asked for “all documentation, including drafts related to the [TPPA]”, rather than what appears to be the Minister’s understanding that he was just after the draft, he might be able to take a crack at an appeal to the Ombudsman under s28. The grounds for this would be the Minister’s office choosing to interpret the wording of his request in a manner that’s arguably quite different in ambit to what he’d plainly intended and explicitly asked for. Which helps to illustrate why it’s important to get the wording on your OIA right. The boffins charged with responding to OIA requests are, entirely unsurprisingly, highly malicious literal-genies when they think they can get away with it.
Now some of you might be asking – if it was always a virtual certainty that Harley’s OIA would go nowhere … why bother filing one on this subject in the first place? Particularly given there’s a perfectly good (if a little outdated) series of draft chapters and other material to be found over on Wikileaks if you’re actually interested in getting a rough sense of what National’s engaged in signing us up to.

Well in most cases, one reason to first ask the legitimate source nicely instead of heading straight for the illicitly acquired material is for the sake of accuracy and completeness. There’s apparently about 29 chapters in the TPPA, of which only a precious few have found their way out into the public domain via Wikileaks. Further, the material available on Wikileaks mostly dates from 2013 or early 2014; and it’s entirely possible that those parts of the agreement have changed in important ways in the interim. While we’ve got very little choice when it comes to sourcing material from the TPPA, this nevertheless demonstrates that attempting to rely exclusively on unofficial sources doesn’t always give you a full – or even entirely accurate – picture of what’s going on.

It’s also a matter of fairness and principle. Where there’s a standard and established legal process by which to approach the government for official information, the moral and ethical thing to do (yes, there are such things in politics) is to start with that. Using the legal avenues also tends to be considerably less technically demanding/paranoia inducing than donning a white hat and trying to construct your own Raw-Shark-Tank.

Oh, and if you want to be ruthlessly pragmatic/trolly about it … officials have a statutory duty under the Official Information Act to respond to your request. Previous miscreants have noted this and taken to filing dozens if not hundreds of individual (and slightly different, so as to prevent time-saving cookie-cutter responses) OIAs at particular targets in attempts to snow them under with requests that require not just a cursory letter of acknowledgement back (which is basically all you’re entitled to get as the result of merely contacting an MP or Minister without invoking a specific statutory duty on their part), but the sparing of actual man-hours of time for the relevant staff to go off researching on your behalf (and therefore, stalled productivity on something *else* that your target’s up to).
At the very least, by making an OIA request of the government on a contentious subject like this; you’re making something of an official protest about the way the TPPA has been handled. Because every OIA request is logged and registered, the government is able to tell how many of them are going to particular ministries or departments, and on what issues. (A fact which became rather amusing and demonstrably useful for people who *weren’t* the government when somebody had the bright idea of OIAing a list of the OIAs handled by the Ministry of Justice over the last 3 years with a view to catching FailOil & Judith playing in-House. See how *incredibly cool* these OIA things can be with a bit of creative thinking?! 😀 ) The resultant data gives them a crude barometer as to what issues out there in the electorate are riling people up enough that a mere mundane letter of protest to the ministry or minister doesn’t cut it.

A sudden spike of thousands of OIA requests to MFaT querying the lack of transparency around the TPPA would definitely not go unnoticed; and there’s a certain pleasing symbolism to the idea of street-protesters and online activists stepping into the realm of officialdom to engage the enemy with its own customary weapons of statute and bureaucracy.

Having said that, while persons such as myself who’ve got a Parliamentary Services background or longstanding political experience tend to feel reasonably comfortable deploying OIAs; I imagine that the idea of making the magic spell work by grappling with statute, doing a bit of targeting research, and then having to wait a month or more to find out if you’ve done it right renders the whole exercise a little more daunting for the average Kiwi.

That’s why I’m incredibly grateful for the existence of services like fyi.org.nz; which simplify the process down and make firing off an OIA something that’s easily doable by just about anyone.

If you’re interested in giving it a go yourself, it’s not terribly hard to track down examples of successful OIAs to template yours off; and when it comes to the TPPA, there’s certainly no shortage of contentious points to query about.

Obvious suggestions include: requesting documentation containing tangible evidence as to the benefits to NZ from joining (and, for that matter, the costs); asking for material covering what mechanisms (if any) the government intends to put in place to protect itself from lawsuits by foreign companies; or going after any information held by the Minister that establishes why Malaysian and American lawmakers are allowed to scrutinize the TPPA before signing, while their NZ MP counterparts are afforded no such privilege.

While the odds that you’ll get a sane and sensible answer to just about any OIA on the TPPA are not exactly stellar; the point of this form of protest is to demonstrate that in the absence of readily afforded transparency, you will *demand* it.

And, just as importantly, that we point-blank *refuse* to accept, as my good friend Alex Fulton put it, the notion that the entire point of the OIA is “to deliver politically convenient material to the allies of the sitting government.”

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Fascism

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TDB back from holiday Feb 1st

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Our bloggers have taken a well deserved rest over the holidays and will be back on board Feb 1st. We also have some exciting new additions and some new directions for the blog.

See you February.

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Global Balancing

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I’ve been working on multi-country data in recent weeks, calculating private-sector financial balances from data on government financial balances and from balance of payments information. The results help place both the New Zealand Government’s drive for a fiscal ‘surplus’, and the Eurozone’s obsession for balanced budgets, into perspective. And they show that the system of exchange rates completely failed to achieve what policymakers expected of it.

The first thing to note is that every single person, household, organisation, government, sector and country has an annual surplus or an annual deficit. (A deficit is a negative surplus; and a country’s surplus is its ‘current account’ surplus, not its government surplus.)

My personal surplus is my after-tax earnings plus any monetary gifts received (‘transfers’) [blue] less my spending, interest paid and donations [red]. If, for a 12-month period, the red items exceed the blueitems, then I am running a negative surplus – a deficit.

These surplus and deficit balances together form a ‘closed system’. By definition, and for the world as a whole (but not for individual countries), these aggregated private and public balances must add to zero.

This chart might look a bit esoteric, but it’s not too hard to follow. Each dot represents a country. There’s a lot in it though; 100 representative countries for starters.

 

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The average private sector balances for each country for the last 20 years are shown horizontally, and government balances are shown vertically. The systemic constraint (ie the requirement to balance at zero) is represented by the dashed ‘line of current account balance’. Essentially, half the countries should be to the left of the line; the other half to the right. (There are actually more countries to the left, because smaller countries are more likely to be to the left of the line.)

New Zealand is the big red dot well to the left. Its position says that New Zealand’s households and businesses have been running, on average, annual deficits that sum to five percent of New Zealand’s GDP. Essentially it means that the private side of the New Zealand economy has been spending on 5% of GDP more than its revenue. On the other hand the government side of the New Zealand economy has been spending, on annual average, 1% of GDP less than its revenue.

Almost exactly opposite of New Zealand is China, whose private sector spends 5% of its GDP less than what it earns, and whose governments have spent 1% of GDP more than they earn. Germany sits very close to China.

For the world-system of nations, the average private balance has been +1.65% of world GDP, and the average government balance -1.65%. That suggests that, from 1995, the governments of the world have been increasing their debts to the world’s households and businesses by close to 2% of world GDP per year. (This figure does not represent a global problem; world inflation erodes that government debt as it accumulates.)

We note that the most obvious group of ‘surplus’ countries are the oil-exporting nations. This is as it should be. These nations – private sector and governments – must save now because their oil reserves will one day either run out or become superseded by some other fuel.

What is a problem, is this: the chart, which covers 20 years, should show countries much more clustered around the ‘current account’ line. (Substantial dispersion from the ‘current account’ line should be common for periods of under a decade, but not for periods of 20 years or more.) This shows that the system of floating exchange rates does not work much like the textbooks say it should work. The exchange rate system is supposed to act like a thermostat, keeping countries close to that line.

Further, from a point of view of capitalist dynamics, there should be many more countries in the same part of the chart that New Zealand is in. First, such countries play a critical balancing role, given the preponderance of countries on the opposite side of the chart. Second, it is private-sector spending (especially investment spending) that is supposed to drive the whole system. Thus the present crisis of capitalism is reflected in the paucity of countries in the same risk-taking quadrant as New Zealand. New Zealand is, in many ways, truly an exceptional country.

The countries to the left of Australia shown on the (first) chart above are: New Zealand, Estonia, Latvia, Iceland, Bulgaria, Serbia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Panama, Fiji, Jamaica, Samoa, and Cameroon. Mainly ex-Soviet and developing countries.

Below is a second chart, which give the same information, but for the years 2010-14 only (using IMF estimates for 2014). Estonia, Iceland, Latvia and Lithuania are shown as a group on these charts. During this half-decade, Iceland has moved out of this private-sector deficit zone, following its financial collapse.

In the last 20 years it was the new Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) which, as a group, looked most like New Zealand and Australia. However, now that all three have joined an austere Eurozone, they have moved substantially rightwards, as have the indebted Eurozone countries (disaffectionately known as PIGS), and as has Australia. Of these more-developed economies ‘on the left’, only Estonia and New Zealand remain on the left side of the chart this decade.

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Essentially, when countries move (on the charts) to the right or move upwards, that has a dampening effect on the world economy, adding to world unemployment. (The Eurozone as a whole has clearly moved to the right.) When countries move to the left, that has an invigorating effect, or at least it counters dampening elsewhere in the system.

On the second chart the ‘centre of gravity’ has moved down to the right. When all is netted out the fundamental change is that people are increasingly lending to their governments, both in lieu of paying taxes, and in lieu of lending to businesses. We are saving more and investing less.

After the 2008 global financial crisis, the general dynamic was for the global private sector to shift right; to reduce borrowing, to increase saving, and to repay debt. (This condition came to be known as a global balance-sheet recession.) This private right-shift was initially accommodated by governments moving down the chart. Governments spent more, compensating for private parties spending less.

From 2010, however, a new ‘austerity’ dynamic took over. This was when the Eurozone crisis took hold, and it’s when governments around the world replaced fiscal accommodation with ‘fiscal consolidation’. This meant that there was a substantial policy dynamic – across the board – to move up the chart. Once again, key economic agents – this time governments – were seeking to move away from the ‘current account’ line, and in a way that aggravates unemployment and precipitates deflation.

Eurozone countries on the left of the first chart – such as Greece and Spain – were being forced to move closer to the current account line. The policy intent was to move them up; the reality of austerity was to move them to the right. The policymakers’ expectations were that public sector austerity in the European Union would liberate their private sectors into taking on a lot of new debt. Fat chance; even very low interest rates are not achieving the required levels of private debt.

Further, the expectation was that the Greeces and Spains would respond to an ‘internal devaluation’ (read ‘drastic wage cuts’) which would further render the export sectors of these countries ‘competitive’. The vision was of the Eurozone as a whole becoming like a big export‑oriented factory, delivering masses of goods and services, on credit, to the rest of the world.

This attempted movement towards both public sector and private sector surpluses is impossible however for the world as a whole to achieve, due to the zero-sum constraint. It means that reduced government deficits can only be achieved through decreased private-sector surpluses.

A significant number of countries’ private sectors, mostly in South America and Africa, have accommodated much of the decreased spending in the established developed countries, by taking on more debt, by selling assets such as land, or by receiving direct foreign investment (such as that by China in Africa and the Pacific). Also we note that China (also the other BRICS) has accommodated by moving left a little. (Note that, under the dynamic of this decade, accommodation – ie stabilisation – represents any movement left or down by any country.) Even Japan moved closer to the ‘current account’ line.

The world economy remains weak and deflation is taking hold. The policy dynamic is for countries to move up (reduced government deficits) and or to the right (higher private savings rates). Offsetting new debts in developing countries are inadequate, and are making those countries even more vulnerable. In taking on liabilities to balance the savings glut in the developed world, these African and South American and Oceanian countries stand to become the Greeces and Spains of the 2020s.

Under present circumstances, New Zealand is likely to revert back towards its 1995-2014 average. New Zealand, through its monetary policies, unintentionally acts as a substantial absorber of the private surpluses of other countries. Had Labour ‘won’ the 2014 election, David Parker would have been taking New Zealand in the same direction as Greece and Spain – to the right on the chart.

A final point to note here. Japan and the USA are now really post-industrial economies. Their balance sheets are converging, towards the bottom-right of these charts. Both countries’ private sectors have become highly resistant to tax increases, while also highly dependent on government spending. The two sectors in these countries have become financially co-dependent. The core dynamic is that Americans and Japanese prefer to lend more to their governments than to pay more taxes.

In a sense government borrowing and taxation are the same; just as war bonds were really taxes dressed up as savings. If people lend to their own governments what they do not wish to spend, then that can be a stable outcome, so long as they accept that their governments must spend what households and businesses lend as if that money was revenue. And they must pretend that their governments’ ability to sustain debt is infinite.

If private parties in either of these two huge post-industrial nations – USA and Japan – seek to bankrupt their own technically insolvent governments, then that whole co-dependent economy crashes in a kind of financial Armageddon. So the private creditors of these governments will not initiate their respective equivalents of financial nuclear war. They will pretend to believe in their governments’ empty promises to repay public debt; their other choice is to pay much more tax.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

The real problem with affordable housing

25

Even if Nick Smith gets all his wish list of environment protection amputations in the RMA, it will only reduce the cost of a house by maybe $40 000 and these impacts won’t be felt for another decade by which that saving will be meaningless.

When house prices are as unaffordable as they have become in NZ, Nick is talking about chump change. His changes to the RMA is just an anti-environment developers paradise, it’s not a solution to affordable housing.

The problem is that too many NZers are simply too poor to buy a house.

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  • The gap between high and low incomes has widened faster in recent decades in NZ than in most other developed nations
  • Across all adults. the top 1% owns three times as much wealth as the poorest 50%.
  • NZ now has the widest income gaps since detailed records began in the early 1980s.
  • The average household in the top 10% of NZ has nine times the income of one in the bottom 10%
  • Between 170 000 – 270 000 children living in poverty (depending on the measures used)
  • One of the world’s worst worst records of child health and well-being
  • One major report on children’s welfare ranked NZ twenty-eighth out of 30 developed countries.
  • There are more Pakeha in poverty then Maori, but poverty impacts Maori & Pacifica more acutely. 1 in every 10 Pakeha households live in poverty, 1 in every 5 Maori and Pacific households live in poverty.
  • Maori had 95% of their land appropriated and alienated between 19th Century and 20th Century.
  • Women earn 13% less than men and are under represented in senior positions within almost every occupation. Many are forced to take low income part time work.
  • Subsidies for Kiwisaver contributions and some Working for Families tax credits, are available only to those in paid work or, sometimes, in full-time paid work. A lower proportion of Women are in full time work so they are more likely to be excluded from these initiatives and more reliant on inadequate state benefits.
  • Pacific Islanders are 3 times more likely to be unemployed than the general population’s rate, they also, like recent immigrants, struggle alongside Maori against structural discrimination.
  • These groups represent the 800 000 NZers living below the poverty line.
  • Against that number, 29 000 people own 16% of NZs wealth, and 13 000 NZers have incomes over $250 000.
  • Wages and benefits are too low for people to live on, it isn’t an issue of budgeting, it’s an issue of income.
  • Poverty erodes voice and citizenship which generates inequality.
  • People’s ability to participate fully in their society and enjoy a sense of belonging is vital for a Democracy to flourish.

We have a system that is built for property speculators and leaving it to the market is what has gotten us into this problem in the first place. We need a State with a focus on providing affordable housing, even Labour’s much vaunted ‘Kiwibuild’ will only provide homes for the kids of the middle classes.

We need more state houses and Government backed mortgages for the poor. This problem requires actual direct action by the state and we need to punish speculators. The problem is that the only illusion of wealth that the middles classes have is from their over inflated property valuations.

Leaving it to the market, the speculators and the profit margins of developers at the cost of urban spiral and our environment is a recipe for more of the same.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

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