Labour + Greens + TOP is less scary than Labour + Greens + Te Pati Māori
It wasn’t just National hitting the 20s that was interesting in the polls, it was the fact that TOP scored 4% in Roy Morgan and gained .5 in the TU Poll.
That all points to a friction deep inside the political spectrum that is birthing in NZ, similar to the Teal movement in Australia.
Many Blue/Green voters inside National are horrified by the way race war baiting Seymour and culture war rhetoric Winston has taken over National and as the party disintegrates, Blue/Green voters increasingly are looking at TOP as an exit plan.
The options for 2026 are either Winston as Kingmaker forcing National/ACT to give him PM for 12 moths or forcing Labour+Greens to give him PM for 18 months.
If TOP however gets over the 5% threshold then suddenly Labour + Greens + TOP become a far better option and is far less scary than Labour + Green + Te Pati Māori.
This becomes a game changer and the NZ Right lose the capacity to use the internal disputes inside Te Pati Māori to paint the political alternative as unstable.
You present an ideal political combination however what would stop a National TOP combination?
because National + TOP won’t = 51%
When I said combination I expected people to understand that another of the loopy right parties might join them. The fact that I used combination to describe TOP, Greens & Labour pointed to that although I have no idea how the votes will end up at election time so I didn’t specify anything.
It will be the National party that will stop a National / Top coalition.
Top has already stated they will not compromise on their policies nor their principles.
They are willing to work with any big party, but not on the dominant party terms only on true positive direction changes.