On the frontline, bloody attritional fighting continues and Russia continues to advance. However, at strategic-level several trends are developing that are likely to impact in Ukraine’s favour. Russia’s economy is starting to falter, European nations are not responding to Putin’s rhetoric, American aid will continue to flow for the next couple of months and overseas conflicts demand Russian attention.
This week’s question is whether Ukraine can hold on at operational-level long enough for these trends to impact on Russia’s warfighting capacity
The situation at operational-level
At operational-level, Ukraine appears to be on the backfoot. Its offensive in the north, near Kursk, is contained and is slowly being reduced. Russia is accumulating force in the area, including deploying large numbers of North Korean soldiers into the area. Initial reports indicate that the North Koreans are suffering large casualties in combat, and that there is an issue with desertion. Although these reports are from Ukrainian sources, they ring true. North Korea’s military has no recent military experience, poor training and old-fashioned equipment. Further it is likely that these soldiers are being used as cannon fodder, increasing the likelihood of desertion.
However, North Korean soldiers are contributing to Russia plan, and the Ukrainian salient is slowly being reduced. Further south there is also noteworthy Russian success, after capturing Vuledhar, Russia has slowly advanced north-west in the area around Kurakhove. Russian forces incrementally, advancing and enveloping small areas. It easy to see how this activity will progress, Russian forces advancing roughly west in the broken country flanking the N 15 Highway, biting off sections of Ukrainian territory. See the map below.
Further north, closer to Pokrovsk, Russian forces are advancing along the Sdona River. Although slow, this advance is consistent and creates opportunities to attack Pokrovsk from the south along the ridgeline the town sits on, rather than through the open country immediately east of it. The biggest question is whether Russia will try to link these advances before attacking Pokrovsk, by securing the large bowl of open country that separates them. See the area indicated by a ‘?’ on the map. This area of open country is bounded by high ground (highlighted in grey) and waterways in the north. Holding it could provide a defensible ‘bound’ from which to flank Pokrovsk from the south, or to push west threatening Zaporizhia.
A tactical-level lesson for operational-level planners
The Ukraine war is ‘flipping’ the way staff planners consider the effect of ground on tactical and operational-level battles. Historically, military planners saw opportunity for manoeuvre in large areas of open ground. Combined arms forces using open ground to manoeuvre quickly. Open ground provides range for direct fire weapons, easier movement and simplifies coordination of forces. Large areas of open ground provide ‘movement corridors,’ through which a force can manoeuvre quickly.
However, in Ukraine we see a different type of manoeuvre, tactical movement is not through open ground. Instead, both sides edge forward using broken country, like forests and urban areas for tactical movement, safe from drones. Russia’s recent envelopments in the south provide useful examples. The advance along the N15 Highway is not being conducted using rapid movement across open terrain but rather by infiltration through the difficult terrain on either side of the road. Likewise, Russia is currently flanking Pokrovsk from the south using difficult terrain along the Sdona River as a movement corridor.
This change results from the use of drones that provide constant battlefield surveillance, and the opportunity to easily target enemy forces in open country. Unless a solution to the massive use of drones is developed Western armies need to be carefully re-thinking how they fight. For instance, supporting movement with indirect fire and airpower becomes more difficult in complex terrain. By necessity manoeuvre units (infantry and armour) operating in complex terrain are more dispersed and therefore harder to coordinate. Likewise, providing logistics support becomes much harder.
Putin’s threats are not working
In recent weeks the decreasing potency of Putin’s threat is becoming apparent. European leaders no longer reacting to vague threats and nuclear sabre-rattling. Instead, their attitudes are hardening as they accept that deterring conflict requires being prepared for war.
Evidence of this new attitude includes recent civil defence instructions, issued in Norway, Finland and Sweden. An initiative cited in comments made by the UK’s Chief of Defence Force, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, at a recent security conference in Berlin. Admiral Radakin’s position being that the UK needs to follow this example, and be prepared for war. A position echoed by the UK’s Defence Secretary, John Healey. Last week, German and UK intelligence chiefs confirmed Russia’s programme of hybrid war, highlighting the security threat this activity poses to Europe. Indications that across Europe attitudes are hardening and political leaders are preparing for potential confrontation.
The impact of this situation is hard to predict, but the most likely outcome is Putin will escalate further. However, it unlikely to involve a direct attack on NATO or us of any kind of nuclear weapon. If Putin was willing to risk war with NATO he would have acted sooner, when he had the psychological initiative. Now both sides understand that open conflict would result in a catastrophic Russian defeat.
Instead, Putin’s escalation will involve various forms of hybrid war, and information operations. The new tough stance European leaders are taking will make hybrid operations more difficult. Essentially, at strategic-level Putin’s bluff has been called, weakening his position in future negotiations because the Trump Whitehouse now has good insight into his rhetoric.
US military aid
Earlier this year, US law makers approved roughly US$ 9 billion of additional aid for Ukraine, and in the last months of his administration President Biden is racing to deliver it to Ukraine.
By early December, roughly US$ 7 billion remained and last week, the US announced another US$ 725 million military aid package for Ukraine. National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan discussed the package on 2 December saying the president has asked the Department of Defence to deliver the aid before mid-January 2025. The plan will deliver hundreds of thousands of additional artillery rounds and thousands of additional missiles to Ukraine direct from US inventories.
The aid is likely to reinforce Ukraine in the short term, allowing it continue inflicting attrition on Russian forces for another couple of months. An important consideration because there is unlikely to be a significant change in the operational situation before the new Trump administration takes power. Essentially, this aid reduces the chances of a sudden Russian advance providing for an opportunity to argue that Ukraine is about to collapse.
Georgia and Syria
In October, the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party won control of the nation’s parliament and is in conflict with the pro-European President, Salome Zurabishvili. Recently, the new government slowed down Georgia’s application to join the European Union, igniting large protests. In 2008, Russia supported separatist movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, fighting a brief war with Georgia and annexing these territories. This history means that the current situation is very tense, Georgian’s concerned about Russian influence in their country.
Later in the week, the sudden capture of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city by force led by Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Islamist group added another strategic consideration. Syria has been in a state of constant civil war for more than a decade but in recent years the nation’s leader Bashar Al-Assad has managed to enforce stability, with strong Russian support.
Tahrir al-Sham’s offensive was unexpected, and has achieved a major coup by capturing Aleppo. The Assad regime relies on Russian support, and in return provides a naval base on the Mediterranean for Russia. The Tartus base is important strategically for Russia, especially since an impact of the war in Ukraine is enactment of the Montreux Convention, that stops Russian warships crossing the Dardanelles. Russian warships cannot enter the Mediterranean from the Black Sea, or vice versa.
Strategically, this is a very difficult situation for Putin because losing Russian naval access to the Mediterranean reduces his influence in the region. Essentially, if the base is lost any Russian warship operating in the Mediterranean would need to operate from a base in either the Baltic or Artic Ocean. Not impossible, but difficult and severely limits the projection of Russian naval power in the Mediterranean. Further, losing the naval bases at Tartus makes supplying Russian forces in Syria more difficult.
Worse, the Tahrir al-Sham offensive is getting closer to Tartus forcing Russia to decide if it will send forces to Syria to support the Assad regime. Then there is the question of Georgia, should Russia intervene there to support the pro-Russian government. Currently, this seems unlikely because Russia does not have sufficient deployable military force. It already requires North Korean soldiers to reinforce operations in Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War reporting on 5 December that “Russia is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria, which may suggest that Russia does not intend to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s regime in the near term.”
Essentially, Russia faces two difficult international situations that need to be addressed, or it risks losing prestige and the ability to project military power. Remember that in September 2023, Azerbaijan took advantage of Russia’s situation to launch a small offensive in the Nagorno-Karabakh region regaining territory protected by Russian peacekeepers. Failing to respond to the situations in Georgia and Syria may undermine Russia’s position and possibly tempt other states within the Russian sphere of influence to take advantage of the situation.
Strategically, Russia probably does not have the resources it needs to respond. Elite airborne and marine units are required in Ukraine, conscripts cannot be used overseas and the pool of potential ‘contract’ soldiers is exhausted. Russia’s lack of deployable military resources means Putin’s historic use of force to impose his will is not available and a he risks a significant loss of international status.
Summary
It is impossible to know whether Ukraine can ‘hold on’ and prevent the loss of an operationally significant area of land in the next couple of months. However, they will certainly benefit from the large amount of American aid being delivered. And if Ukraine can hold on, the strategic situation is developing in their favour. Putin’s nuclear threats and ‘redlines’ used to serve as an effective deterrent, shaping the flow of aid to Ukraine. Now as European attitudes towards Russia are harden, his threats are becoming less effective.
Putin also needs to respond to two international situations, in Georgia and in Syria that are likely to result in him ‘losing face’ because he does not have the resources to respond effectively. If he cannot support pro-Russian regimes in Georgia and Syria, the aura of Russian power will be tarnished and other nations or ethnic groups tired of Russian domination are likely to take advantage of the situation.
It does not matter what the international community thinks of Putin, but if he is seen as weak within Russia’s ruling elite, his days are numbered. Ukraine may be reluctantly giving ground but if it can stay the course, this
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
So, on the flip side of this coin we have Russia, or Putin, reacting (as they always do) to the West’s latest escalatory tactics (remember that like North Korea mentioned here, Russia is poorly trained and poorly equipped and logic suggests, that no one with these key fundamentals, dares escalate, dares to take on forces who are obviously the opposite of this), on the flip side we have Russia reacting to the West’s latest provocations (the use of longer range ATACMS + storm shadow missiles) with the use, for the very first time, of the Oreshnik missile. The result of this Russian ‘sabre rattle’, few, if any, longer range Western missiles have been used since. Thankfully, the use and effectiveness of this new missile appears to has taken nuclear sabre rattling off the board, from a Russian stand point.
On the ground, the situation is dreadful for Ukraine. No one should take any joy from this. And as yet, zero evidence of these poorly trained/armed North Korean soldiers has been produced, but Ukrainian claims, still reign supreme within Western media circles.
Strategically, the West is ginning up two new conflict zones, one in Georgia, the other in Syria, in an effort to divert Russian military power away from the shellacking taking place in Ukraine. Time will tell if these latest meddling affairs achieve their desired aims. Bad news for the locals there in the meantime, certainly in Syria where the latest version of (Western backed) Al Quada – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leads the Rebel cause against a Syrian government that has consistently refused to cede its sovereignty to the USA.
So, will our desires be met – control of resource-rich Russia and greater control over the Middle East – well, only time will tell. Meanwhile, tragedy and hardship befalls millions of people, not that this has ever mattered to the elitist class, whose money ultimately drives these politically driven calamities.
Thanks Ben
In total about a million dead and nothing to show for it, but destruction. Unbelievable!
Now everything hinges on Trump.
No, the North Koreans will overrun all of Western Europe. Has anybody seen one yet?
Still cheer for the axis of evil Ben Morgan remember this war was initiated by your idol NATO alliances even the situation in Syria favors NATO with Turkey and apartheid Israel and the US being the big winners of Assad fall! Looks like the Greater Israel project is back on track and with the Syria regime gone Hezbollah will be weakened and potentially become non-existent. Golan Heights once Syrian territory now will be permanently apartheid Israel territory.
Apparently if you believe internet rumors your idol state “Ukraine” was tactically involved in the sudden demise of Basha Al Assad of Syria. You wonder what in it for them when there country is getting slaughtered by the Russians supporting a terrorist group listed by UN and US as a terrorist organisation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) once an affiliate with Al Qaeda ISIS supported and armed by NATO.
The Russian losing a vital warm water port in the Mediterranean sea might have wider consequences for them but the biggest loser will be Iran and with Trump regime about to take the helm next month we might be witnessing an attack on the Persians which has the potential to start WW3
The headchopping jihadis have said they will protect Russia’s bases in Syria – undoubtedly under Turkey’s instructions.
These “Syrians” are more interested in rounding up Shiites and Christians veiling or smashing them like Christmas decorations. More than a year of genocide against their Sunni “brothers” in Palestine, and they choose to attack the only nations resting the Zionists, and like all ISIS “Islamic terrorists”, have yet to discover where Israel is on the map.
Can we have the date when trumpy is going to fix the Ukraine/Ruzzia thing?
Please someone produce definite convincing video evidence of North Koreans in Ukraine. Until then it’s like the mythical Ghost of Kiev.
So the head choppers of ISIS are back. Funded by the CIA, trained by Ukrainians, assisted by Turks. A great victory for democracy. The veil and beheading is back.
So what’s the record of success with Western backed regime change in the Middle East again?
Oh it gets better the “Democratic” West and the EU a client state of the United States of Arseholes cancelled the first round of elections in Romania because “The far right” candidate Georgscu swept the floor with the Western backed poodle. Reason? A Russian social media campaign with no evidence provided. Ponder that happy horse shit.
Nek minut Pisstopher Cruxton is back in power because someone named Vlad a Maori fella from Te Puke posted on FB vote Labour.
The shiny veneer of western democracy is nothing more a condom used to fuck over the poor.
Time to listen to some Tracy Chapman….
Why does everything Ben writes seem like its a minimum of a week late? And wrong?
Russia shows its lack of humanity when they support the deposed leader in Syria who terrorised his own people to keep control.
Such alarming behavior should be easy to verify, but you can’t because that is just pop corn propaganda for the easily led masses.
You’re saying that Assad isn’t in Russia? Or that they didn’t support his government when he was in power?
It is debatable as to whether Assad’s location was a point of Trevor’s. Otherwise, Assad is only a terrorist in Western eyes simply because he was unwilling to allow the West to take country of his country. Of course, USA still managed to illegally seize control of Syria’s oil fields and most fertile lands, but these points are always left out of Western propaganda narratives, ditto the fact that that the rebels that have seized control of Syria, led by the terrorist organization, known as HTS, were all backed, some even trained by, the West. And to your other minor points, yes Russia supports Syria and thankfully, it appears at this stage, Assad is safe in Russia, otherwise HTS would have beheaded him, had the captured him, and defiled and displayed his head around for all to see, such is the humanity of the terrorists the West loves to foment!
Just a couple of snippets about Assad. Guy was an eye doctor, drove a mini around, I believe (certainly a rather ordinary type of car for a leader) and occasionally walked around among his people with little, to no, protection. To be fair, I knew fark all about Assad, and I at least, didn’t dismiss the Western b/s we are constantly fed about him, and most other matters as well, just a handful of years ago. This just goes to show, when we don’t pay attention, we allow ourselves to become easily led!
….thankfully, it appears at this stage, Assad is safe in Russia, ..
Thankfully?
Robert Fisk talks to Al Jazeera about the man Assad learned his leadership from, Daddy in Hama in 1982.
Don’t forget that this chap was number two in line, meaning he was never meant to be a leader of Syria, hence why he did his own thing and became an eye doctor, living mostly in the West, until the number one, his brother, died unexpectedly, thrusting this chap into the leadership roll. Still, you could always provide actual verifiable evidence that shows the mayhem the West typically associates with this guy. C’mon, c’mon, do something the Western press never does, provide more than empty, but eye-catching, headline fodder. Be the first, my man!
Seriously? Not even Robert Fisk is good enough for you? BTW, the optometrist hired his uncle Rifaat back into work, a man that Hama residents knew well.
You’ve got to find dirt on the son – the man in question now – not his daddy. His daddy doesn’t count, he isn’t the talk of the town now, but trying to use daddy as a means of painting the son in a poor light, is a good indicator that there really isn’t much substance in the headline claims made about the guy.
FFS, he inherited Daddy’s entire secret police and torture system. You think he just switched that off on day one – or any day of his rule?
Again, you should be able to prove it. It all seems so obvious to you and yet you can back up diddly squat. Mate, if your news sources are not backing up their claims, then its high time to understand that you are being hood winked!
Can you be any more patronising? And let’s be honest – it doesn’t matter what evidence you’re shown you’ll never believe it because it comes from “the west”
I am not the patronizing type. But I do like to think that it is obvious…that whatever claims we make should be able to be backed up, if asked for. And the more obvious we make these claims to be, then clearly, the easier they should be to back up. That is it, but – it – is very important because if we can’t back up what we know, then we need to question our sources. We all fall for headlining, but ultimately unsupported news. We all fall for this. This can be deceitful practice, we need to avoid being deceived or hoodwinked, thus, it pays to ensure that the information we take in, can and do provide the sources for the claims being made. If you want to avoid what is now called mis/disinformation, then discovering and following newscasters that habitually back up the claims they make, is ultimately the way to go. Not an East/West thang, big O, just a practice worth advocating for.
What does America, Israel and Turkey display when backing ISIS and Al Qaeda? Humanity? The west is is still trying to call these scumbags as ‘rebels’, when they have already started hanging people from lamp posts and publicly mass executing Syrian christians? Is it Humanity? Really?
Haha. The biggest losers in order:
– Assad
– Iran
– Russia
Winners:
– Turkey
– Israel
– Kurds/Yazidis
I reckon the biggest losers will be those Syrians who get decapitated. Second up, the citizens of Europe faced with millions more refugees. And the refugees themselves.
It’s not 2015 anymore. Germany and Austria just canned their Syrian refugee programmes. As for decapitation? Yeah, they’re Islamist Jihadists. But it’s not like Assad didn’t torture and execute untold numbers of Syrians. There are no good guys here.
Nothing has changed re refugees and illegal immigrants into Europe. And it will get worse.
The Turks hit PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) & YPG that are backed by the USA.
USA hits ISIS.
Israel hits Syria’s abandoned military – all of it.
A war of all upon all.
A good indication here of the many forces Syria has been up against, for over a decade now. Strange how the USA is at odds with its number two attack dog – ISIS – again. At least ISIS junior – HTS – or the Rebel force as Western media prefers to call them now, at least they are behaving themselves for their US/Israeli masters. And speaking of Israel, its doing what it does best, yet again, bombing the heck out of a place despite a long since abandoned military. Western induced carnage is spreading its wings. We can only hope that the West doesn’t start a war with China too.
You forgot about Turkey, the major player here via HTS. None of this happens without Turkey, with Erdogan in full MOGA mode (Make Ottoman Great Again).
No. Turkey is a part of NATO, its beholding to the West, so they are just another part of the same mire.
Given Erdogan’s tirades about how the West is fading away, the great triumph that will be Islam in the 21st century, his general shit-stirring with the EU on things like immigration that’s pissed off almost all his NATO partners, capped by his all-round, giving-the-fingers attitude to them and the US, there’s growing talk of Turkey being booted from NATO. He’s repeatedly done things that EU and NATO states asked him not to do. Doesn’t sound like he’s “beholden” to them at all.
Turkey is what, NATO’s largest or second largest military force. As such, it would be a huge, huge blow to NATO if they booted Turkey out. Not sure if NATO wishes to go down this route as a consequence. Meanwhile, it sounds like Turkey is becoming increasingly disenchanted with NATO. Gotta wonder what is keeping them in there then….
I think at this stage I’ve funded half a Ukrainian tank through the backdoor method of drinking Obolon beer wherever I could find it. That it was always the cheapest never came into it.
Comments are closed.