Oh look at that, the poll of Polls tells you what TDB has spent 12 months pointing out…
Labour is edging ahead of National and together with the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori is the most likely coalition, according to the Herald’s latest poll of polls analysis.
That coalition is only the clear favourite, however, because National has ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori. A coalition with those two and Act would have a 99.7 per cent chance of forming a government if the election were held this weekend.
It comes ahead of the National Party’s conference this weekend in Wellington, where its MPs will look to rally the troops going into what is shaping up to be an incredibly tight election campaign.
Using data from different pollsters and running multiple election simulations, including this month’s Taxpayer Union Curia and the Talbot Mills poll this week, Labour is currently on 35 per cent of the party vote – slightly above National at 34.6 per cent.
Factoring in National’s most-likely coalition partner, the right bloc with Act’s 11 per cent reaches 45.6 per cent, compared to 8 per cent for the Greens, which typically sides with Labour, and together those two parties reach 43 per cent.
Neither could govern alone on those numbers and with 3.4 per cent of the vote, Te Pāti Māori again finds itself in a kingmaker position. But with National Party leader Christopher Luxon having ruled out working with them in any scenario, the most likely governing coalition would be Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
That coalition has a 51.1 per cent likelihood of occurring if an election were to be held this weekend, dropping to 50.1 per cent on polling day (October 14).
…yes, that’s right, it’s going to be a Labour minority Government with supply and confidence from the Māori Party!
Folks you can read it here first on The Daily Blog or you can wait 12 fucking months for the Herald to spell out the bleeding obvious!
The reason Labour’s vote is holding up so spectacularly is because the middle voter is shit terrified of what a National/ACT would mutate into. They see that Luxon is spectacularly weak and David Seymour will get through every crazy far right wet dream he’s ever had!
For the educated they can see the atrocity of policy amputation ACT are serious about and understand it’s an existential threat to the body politic.
Michael Wood could have been told to sell this fucking shares a million times, and that middle are still voting Labour to stop a National/ACT Government.
Ironically the more the Right shit on Māori, the stronger the Māori Party vote gets.
If the price for Supply and Confidence from the Māori Party are legacy policy that has an immediate material well being on the poorest, they will lock themselves into a new generational power block that will be forever central to political decision making in this nation.
We could have the most left wing Government since Savage or the most right wing one since Roger Douglas.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice – please donate here.
If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media
Edging being the most appropriate word for all sorts of reasons.
Poll of all polls poll of polls poll poll of all polls poll tells me that Labour will be gone.
Don’t underestimate the no vote given the appalling choice between a government who does not deserve another term and an opposition who is patently unelectable.
In that scenario it would be a repeat of Bill Shorten vs. Scott Morrison, but in reverse — this time the Tories lose the “Un-loseable Election”, solely because their leader is such a poor choice (even though the Labour leader is also lousy, just slightly less embarrassing).
Martyn – Great satire…The Maori Party and Greens do not like each other…why, because the Greens want to turn Maori land, and marine reserves into the Conservation Estate
That may have been the case 30 years ago when the Greens were actually an environmental party but no longer.
Unless a cup of Tea happens between NZ First and National. Seymour would be prepared to swallow a few dead rats and work constructively with NZ First. Because that’s what mmp is.
What you have neglected to include in your political calculations, Martyn, is Labour’s well-established propensity for betraying its followers.
How certain are you that Hipkins and his colleagues wouldn’t see the option of blowing-up any post-election negotiations with the Greens and TPM as preferable to attempting to govern alongside them?
How can you be so sure Labour wouldn’t welcome a 3-6 year stint on the Opposition Benches watching National and Act drown in crises of their own making.
Sometimes, Comrade, losing is winning.
Hehehe!
Obviously not a Crusaders fan?
I think it is essential Labour spends time on the bench to reflect their total abandonment of their core historic values.
I love a man who’s always right, just I love a man with a mullet & moustache.
While considering the ups and downs of polls a Chris Slane cartoon on who was the sexiest politician in 2011 came to my attention from my pile of memorable trivia? It’s a bit of light relief from the present slug-fest; do I mean slimy, not sure? Bless the National Library and death to whomever pours dissolving acid on it.
https://natlib.govt.nz/records/23525907?search%5Bi%5D%5Bsubject%5D=Key%2C+John+Phillip+%28Rt+Hon%29%2C+1961-&search%5Bil%5D%5Bcreator%5D=Listener+%28Periodical%29&search%5Bil%5D%5Bsubject%5D=Goff%2C+Philip+Bruce+%28Hon%29%2C+1953-&search%5Bpath%5D=photos
Slane and Trace Hodgson yeeehaaa!
The Nats are onto something with this banga of a tagline!
“Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori government as a “coalition of chaos!”
Will those soft labour voters vote national to keep the Greens and TPM away from the national cheque book, a la 2020 when National voters voted Labour to keep the Greens out?
Personally I think (hope) we’re seeing the same polling we saw with Trump and Brexit, the right were highly under-polling until election night. I’m not sure NZ can handle anymore of Labours kindness.
A week is a long time in politics and anything can happen between now and October.
Must be bruising for Luxon’s ego that in the middle of a recession the former high flying CEO can’t open up a lead on Labour.
Yes, it absolutely gives evidence that Luxon and National just aren’t trustworthy. We all learnt our lesson from the worst Government in history, the John Key led National government that took us back so many decades we will struggle to ever repair that damage.
I agree 100%.
The John Key national party coalition was a total betrayal of all New Zealanders in every respect.
There was not one GOOD thing that came out of it.
Now we are on our knee’s and the right want us buried up to our necks in 2023 to 25.
Only a fool would leave Winstone out of the equation
Winston Peters would betray New Zealanders to save his own ego.
we saw that from 2017 to 2020.
He signed up with Labour then road blocked all the way through the 3 years
Moronic statement … how would it save his ego to prop up this rabble .. just a labour troll trying to smack talk Peters ain’t gonna stop him getting in.