The 2023 NZ election will be a fight over who NZ fears most, a National/ACT Government or a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.
We have lived through a political period of time since MMP that has managed to dilute and temper the idealogical extremes of Left/Right politics in NZ.
The need to compromise and pull punches is fundamental to the MMP dynamic HOWEVER that completely gets thrown out the window if there is no political centre left.
The political centre has been hollowed out so much under MMP that Labour and National are almost indistinguishable in their acquiescence to neoliberal mantra.
The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority.
These highly polarised times have the potential to create an outcome that is hated regardless of which side wins.
National/ACT Government:
What you need to appreciate about Christopher is that his evangelical prosperity theology means his 7 properties is proof positive that Jesus loves him.
His CEO routine can do the 45 second sound bite, but time and time and time again his total lack of intellectual curiosity has him blunder policy that he has to walk back 24 hours later.
That’s not a handicap for winning because National are selling his enormous self certainty to a frightened and uneasy electorate. The problem won’t be winning and sticking to a very bland script, the problem will be the total implementation of hard right ACT policy David Seymour will be able to force pass Luxon who sees things like policy as something the little people do.
Christopher loves the first class passengers and when he wants to get working class he talks to the pilots and first class cabin staff, but those who can’t afford to fly God Airways is a bottom feeder.
This means the yellow quick fox will jump all over the lazy blue log and National will be held to ransom by a jubilant Seymour who will see amputating the State as his final gift to Milton Friedman so he can hand on heart tell Satan that he fulfilled his obligations to the free market meaning he can finally resign from politics and make some real money in the private sector.
Seymour is very funny, very charismatic and a very clever politician who is at the peak of his political powers, he will run circles around Christian Lex Luther and Nicola Willis.
I don’t believe for one second that the vast majority of Kiwis have any true comprehension of just how radical a National/ACT Government would truly be.
- Māori going to the Waitangi Tribunal over cancellation of 3 waters: The moment the National/ACT Government scrap 3 Waters, Māoridom will go straight back to the Waitangi Tribunal, win the Court Case and force Luxon into his own Helen Clark moment and be forced to pass law to simply confiscate the water. This will cause an enormous eruption of violent protest.
- Mass immigration: National will simply implement John Key’s pump and dump policy of open door immigration to inflate growth rates while causing enormous stress on the groaning underfunded infrastructure and send rents soaring. This will cause enormous social dislocation and a rise in race relation tensions.
- Expansion of Oranga Tamariki Big Data Experiment: National created the Oranga Tamariki Frankenstein and wants more welfare decided by algorithm as a means to de-invest welfare. Luxon has already championed this model.
- Mass Dairy intensification: It’s all National have as an economic policy.
- Mass Property Speculation: They will remove any of the bare tinkering Labour did and help the speculators spin prices higher.
- Mutilation of the State: ACT are serious about wanting to amputate the Ministry for Women, Youth, Māori, Pacific People and Ethnic Communities while slashing the Human Rights Commission. The resulting Public Service Strikes will gridlock Wellington. If there’s one thing the Public Service can do well, it is protesting for their own interests.
- War on Crime: Expect the paramilitary police expansion to occur quickly with a whole dump of new civil liberty breaching powers to supposedly keep us safe but will almost immediately be abused as they increasingly get used on the protesting Left.
- Prison riot and explosion in numbers: The war on crime will see far more in prison and National prefers puritan counter productive prisons so expect them to be crammed full and explode in a seething chain reaction of prison riots once National grant Corrections new powers to beat prisoners with. Corrections are very corrupt and once they gain new powers to bash prisoners with, they’ll be some prisoner who gets beaten within an inch of his life which that will trigger prison riots.
- Rise of more Mass Surveillance & Political violence: The protests such a radical agenda creates will demand the State turn its attention back on the Left while National supporters clutch their pearls appalled at the aggression the Left are protesting with and rally around Luxon rather than criticise the policy. They will call on Luxon to spy on the radical lefties.
- Higher Government Debt: Luxon is no free marketeer, he believes he has 7 properties because Jesus loves him, if debt goes up to pay for the extra prisons, extra Police, extra dairy intensification, extra welfare experiments, extra fake growth, then so be it, he doesn’t care. Oh David Seymour will hate it, but he’ll be so fat and full on his amputation of 6 State agencies that he’ll only be able to mount a burp as a protest.
Labour/Green/Māori Party Government:
The rule of NZ politics is that you literally have to bang Labour’s head against a wall and put a gun in their mouth before they ever agree to implement meaningful change that challenges neoliberalism.
Labour are the moderate management team who take over once National have fucked up.
Any radical revolutionary zeal was drained inside Labour once their activist base became middle class marxists. If you want Labour to be transformative, you have to literally force them to.
To appeal to those in pain who have been promised the world and delivered a cold Uber eats, the left block must promise radical change within the first 100 days of the new Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.
This will require the Greens and the Maori Party working together to put a list of bottom lines that must be passed within 100 days to generate the urgency that is required to make previous Labour voters believes again.
The Māori Party and Greens must save Jacinda from her and Grant’s innate caution.
The problem is the Māori Party necessity to form 51% will be used by the Right to cause more divisiveness in the campaign. They urgently need to stop dumb forced errors to prevent handing the Right ammunition. John Tamihere’s leadership and discipline is urgently required behind the scenes to ensure that.
The Greens should make their move against James Shaw as quickly as possible so as to blood Chloe before the campaign proper starts and be clear that they tactically will use bottom lines negotiated with the Maori Party to force immediate change that will be passed within 100 days.
If they can’t present an urgent united front with clearly defined goals to win back hope for change, then they will be forced to play the same scare tactics the Right will and use fear of the ACT/National agenda to grudge vote for the Left again.
Because Labour didn’t expect to win 2017 and they didn’t expect to win an MMP majority in 2020, they had no real 100 day legislative agenda to ram through and as such have been stymied ever step by the Wellington Bureaucracy.
Jacinda may be kind and she may really want transformative change, but if you don’t come to Wellington with a clear plan as to how to force the Bureaucracy to implement your manifesto, then transformative change becomes a virtue signal of aspiration rather than actual policy.
Kindness becomes Neo-Kindness that aggrieves rather than inspires.
The Greens and Māori Party must avoid this by clearly telling voters now what they will force Labour to pass in the first 100 days of a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government so that the Wellington Bureaucracy can be thwarted. Unfortunately the Greens are socially connected at the hip to the Wellington Bureaucracy and have all the offensive capacity of slow growing moss.
The last chance for Left progressive policy is a list of bottom line first 100 day laws to force Labour into being more Bernie Sanders than cautious Grant and Jacinda are confident to attempt.
Here’s what a Labour/Green/Maori Party Government should be committed to passing in the first 100 days of the 2023 election…
1: Feed every kid in NZ a free nutritious and healthy breakfast and lunch at every school using local product and school gardens with parents paid to come in and help. The slow incrementalism touted by favourite public sector for dragger apologist Max Rashbrooke isn’t good enough because the lower middle classes are feeling the same pinch thanks to mortgage rises and universal school lunches and breakfasts would help them as well.
2: 50 000 State Homes for life built using the best environmental and social architecture standards using the public works act to seize land and immediately start building satellite towns using upgraded public transport hubs plus Renter Rights – (rent freezes, end accomodation payments, long term tenancy arrangements)
3: Free public transport plus vast infrastructure upgrade for climate crisis.
4: 30% stake holder in a new Government backed supermarket operation run to provide lower food prices for kiwism better prices for supplies and better conditions for workers.
5: GST off fresh fruit and vegetables and essentials like tampons, toilet paper, condoms, oral health plus a sugar tax.
6: Free Dental services for everyone through public health.
7: Fair Pay Agreements that allow unionisation and real collective bargaining power for workers outside the tiny public service clique they currently cover.
8: Taxation focused on corporations and banks like financial transaction taxand first $20 000.
9: Offer nurses, teachers and Drs free education and living allowances in return for bonded time in our health and eduction systems.
10: Properly funded public broadcasting with TVNZ advert free and merged with RNZ alongside properly funded journalism through NZ on Air with more money for the Arts and Science. If you can’t have good public journalism, the right wing media will destroy these other 9 advances.
…Kiwis have to see a progressive Government ACTUALLY doing shit in the first 100 days or they won’t believe any change is coming and when you consider the economic maelstrom we are entering, the most vulnerable amongst us will be screaming for real change.
If we on the Left don’t offer voters real solutions to their material problems and instead prefer to micro aggression police the latest middle class virtue signals of hate speech, militant pronoun demands and screaming everyone is racist, we are fucked politically in 2023.
Curveball:
The curveball here is Winston and NZ First, if he gets over 5%, he will be the Kingmaker and Trevor Mallard’s bizarre desire to trespass an institution like Winston will sow a bitter harvest at negotiation time.
Winston could bring a genuine isolationist stance to NZ politics by reviving Muldoon’s Think Big anti-free market economic sovereignty. At a time of global financial collapse, economic nationalism will be extremely populist.
Conclusion:
The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority.
In these highly polarised times that has the potential to create an outcome that is hated regardless of which side wins.
Ultimately it’s the economy stupid.
If the economy falters as badly as it likely to, we will trigger a whole bunch of social tipping points that all have the potential to explode and cause considerable damage.
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We don’t want “intellectual curiosity”!
We want a steady hand to stabilise the ship and remove all the toxic, anti democratic legislation that Labour has slipped in under the cover of Covid.
I wish I was Andrew. Everything is so straight and clear on his road, untroubled by growing potholes that turn into sinkholes. It’s not just toxic Labour, it’s the whole batch of pills that is making the hands shaky. There is a need for balance yes but there is no stable ship on course. Perhaps we need to have the Americas Cup design team in Wellington. They know how to produce new styles and winners – true they are at great expense. But the news about them takes our mind off kids rotting teeth, and employment stats that sound good and give the impression that everyone is getting on okay apart from some hiccups, unfortunately becoming chronic and they really are a pain!
Andrew lives on planet Key remember. There is no balance.
GreyWarb
Talking about potholes, everyone should read this, from a fairly level headed mind: https://theplatform.page.link/Xp8cHgaR92cdgqvCA
The Platform, aka Whale Oil, you are an idiot, apologies a hard right idiot.
Great article other than the continual use of the line ………’Labour they had no real 100 day legislative agenda to ram through…’………..they didn’t have ON PURPOSE or because they were clearly unfit to be in power.
Neither of those two options speaks well of LINO and the Blairite.
The right which I see as my side were fearful of the strength of the Left after the last election. This has not happened and it would not happen if National got in because after Rogernomics NZ do not do major changes . It will just be tweaks
You make it sound like we have a choice…
What fucking choice?
there is a difference between these two piles of shite? Like, one is super runny and the other is super sticky?
Again, where is the Cannabis Law Reform in the 10 suggestions??
neither L nor G will ever touch it.
I want the hologram to talk about Cannabis Law Reform now just to watch the handwringing and woe betide me in the L and G Party. Popcorn would be needed and drinks.
Sad, but true
And N and A, where do they stand?
Given Luxons religious background we probably already know, no popcorn required, or is it the same on his abortion stance?
Who cares. Just smoke it or eat it. Nobody gives a shit anymore about dope.
What! No attack on Labour, how bizzare, shouldn’t it be Jacindas fault cabbage, it always is in your world?
Will we go for Miss Piggy or Fester?? Or will there be a wildman drumer type ‘Animal’.
Animal is the wild and frenzied monster drummer of the fictional band “Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem” from The Muppet Show. He is one of The Muppets originally created by Michael K.
Animal is probably Seymour but Taika has a shot too! I always thought Animal was the coolest, pity life doesnt mirror art …
Sorry I was thinking Taika made a good ANimal (pity he isnt a politician) and confused hum with Rawiri
We have to be ready to Think Big. New Zealand is a great nation, we have immense productive capacity and not just in agriculture. It just takes a government run by serious people rather than cronies of capitalism to activate it.
Agree, grown ups only need apply – leave your ideology at the door.
Oh thats an easy question to answer.
Another Labour Government!
Thank You Tane Male Man not Female Woman. I was scared to say so for fear of being trolled and DEEEESTROOOYYYYED by Bert. Yes, another Labour govt with Mahuta and Jackson in charge will be cata fucking strophic. What??? Do you guys actually believe Jacinda is in charge? Hahahaha….no.
Wow canceled by a cabbage, I should be honored.
the trouble with refusing to do anything is people don’t believe you when you say ‘this time we will do something’
experience trumps hope.
and that’s where things get really nasty.
Yep, exactly how much credibility would a future Labour campaign have, considering they have an absolute majority right now if they want do something, yet still fail?
Add in the clown show that are the Greens and the frankly erratic Māori Party to form the three part electoral offering.
Centre voters will hold their noses, cross their fingers and vote reluctantly for Luxon.
The election is National’s to lose at this point imo. I think people will be voting for “the lesser of two evils” come next election. The Pandemic, and the Government’s response to it, has reshaped the country for better or worse (and I think almost everyone thinks “worse” at this stage). They need to get cost of living in this country under control and they have a year to do it. If Jacinda/Labour won’t (or can’t) bring New Zealand at least back, as low a bar as that is, to what it was before they were elected, they’re done.
Credit were it’s due, Robertson just announced the fuel tax cut and half price public transport fares are to remain for another 5 months. So well done Labour.
And although I am highly critical of Labour on a number of fronts, insofar as the cost of living goes, it was nigh on impossible to forsee the supply problems and shipping company issues that have presented themselves because of Covid and they definitely could not foresee Russia invading Ukraine.
If they keep inflation below 10% they’ll be doing well!
X Ray, they had no choice whatsoever. To have not done it, would have really damaged them but you can guarantee it is just an extra amount being piled on the long term debt.
Well they did have choice and they chose well. Don’t demise things Fantail, choice not chance determines destiny.
How’s he paying for all this?
and do you really really in your heart of hearts expect the nats to be any different nitrium.
Labour-Green-Maori
Ones fucking incompetent and more of an ad agency whose confused themselves for a political party.
The other is so busy ensuring the trans community are using cargo bikes at pronoun slams that they’ve forgotten there’s this country called New Zealand
The other will throw a hissy fit, use the phrase “colonisation” for anything from the weather forecast to getting a flatwhite on the taxpayers at Bellamy’s, play the entire pack of race cards by the end of week 1 and go home for a moe in protest.
National-ACT
The former want to cut their taxes. That’s all they’ve got.
The latter want no taxes but for us pay for the sunlight and rain and privatise the air we breathe as a sacrifice to individualism whilst stepping over dead bodies blocking the crumbling footpaths.
But if that is all we’ve got, we may as well warm up Joe Stalin!
Either way. They both come up short to form a majority government. Meaning they wont be able to pass any legislation.
Which will mean another election within 18 months or less.
6 and 9 could be done , but not by Labour or National…It would take NZ First or Mana to get that done…Nationalisation of the electricity system would be a better way to help most families in New Zealand…Mad Max nearly doubled the price of electricity with his reforms…Remember him on tv saying “ I promise you cheaper electricity “…And when it was obvious they did not work he said “ we took the best advice at the time”…and then he left parliament…great….Cutting stupid government spending would save billions…that’s not going to happen…too obvious….ACT are on the correct path with removing all those talk fest, Ministry’s of wishy washy, …..they are just a competition for the most expensive foyer’s….For all the equality and diversity out there , we never did have a ministry for men….Take GST off rates and the earthquake and fire levy’s…..we put a tax , on tax , here in good old New Zealand…..Reduce GST too 10% and raise the top rate too 61% for those earning over $350,000…..Watch them squirm….pricks…Put a stop to councils spending on vanity projects….define where rates spending goes , basic infrastructure only….these are the sort of ideas that will reduce costs for the kiwi battler’s…..But we all have ideas..some good…some not so good…..the one thing we can probably all agree on is that absolutely nothing is going to happen , and it’s now every man, and trans man and woman , if we can identify woman , for themselves…..
You had money to invest would you give it to Jacinda Ardern?
Relevance to column?
Because that is basically what you do when you elect a government, you give them a lot of money, which you expect them to invest wisely for the good of the country. So if you had $100000 of your own money, would you give it to Ardern to invest on your behalf?
No faith in Ardern to manage other peoples money.
Richard Slade articulates it well.
No faith in Bob to offer a reasoned balanced opinion.
Your dislike of Ardern is certainly no argument.
To answer your question Richard, no, but would you give it to any politician to invest on your behalf? I certainly would not and if you would, “good luck”.
But that’s exactly what you do when you pay taxes. I’ve paid over $150K to the Australian Government to murder people in Afghanistan, torture refugees arriving in boats, ignore climate change, be generally racist and persecute Kiwis, was that money wisely invested? Given a choice, it wasn’t one I would have made because I prefer ethical investment options.
Then I’m more than happy to pay my taxes given THIS government is trying to keep ALL New Zealanders afloat. If that’s not ethical I’m not sure what is? Certainly anything Bob says is unethical, repetitive and wrong..
Or are you paying your taxes to keep property prices high, wages low, pay subsidies to corporations, employers, landlords & cheap motel operators? At least you are no longer paying the SAS to slaughter foreigners in their own country.
From where I am observing this mythical Maori -Green left alternative is going to submit LINO to adopting its invisible agenda post election day 2023.
Bomber where are you going with this ? Do you know something we don’t ? Even when LINO comes knocking at their door to form a government do you actually believe they will have an alternative to put forward ?
” The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority ”
Well your correct with part of that statement about the far right but far left ?
So far watching Tamahere’s nationalists and the current Green party does not give me any confidence of a far left alternative that LINO will actually take seriously.
By joves Martyn there’s a song in this statement, I shall call it “ Who fears who the most”
what might hold some sway is if all pollies took a 75percent cut in pay and allowances to show solidarity with kiwis they’d still be better off than most….but as the gravy train is their reason to be in politics, it ain’t gonna happen.
The article greatly exaggerates the differences between the two “sides” in order to push the Labour led option. Why? Do you see any chance Labour will put in place ANY of the measures you suggest? I don’t mean pay lip service to them, but actually implement them. And, get real, National/Act will not do the things you say they will. At most they will take as few baby steps in what is the wrong direction. But you are quite right to raise the NZ First wildcard, and I’m sorry to see that no comments (bar one) have probed this further. Economic nationalism, you call what NZ First will push, and tell me, someone, tell me, just what exactly is wrong with that?? Doesn’t it basically mean looking out for your country’s economic interests in a clear and practical way?
If what you say comes to pass, the welfare state as we know is it is done. NZ and other countries jus t won’t be able to pay for it.
“The rule of NZ politics is that you literally have to bang Labour’s head against a wall and put a gun in their mouth before they ever agree to implement meaningful change that challenges neoliberalism.”
So that is the real reason they are so keen on restricting legal firearms ownership by law abiding citizens? I guess we really have worry when they decide to ban pitchforks as well.
To appeal to those in pain who have been promised the world and delivered a cold Uber eats, the left block must promise radical change within the first 100 days of the new Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.”
Translation: The Left Block must continue to lie and promise things they never have/had any intention of delivering on, in a blatant, but doomed to failure, attempt to continue to cling to power.
The right bloc is considerably worse and along with their blatant lies, are corrupt.
But we expect better from the Left, and so sadly are constantly disappointed.
As we do with the right, particularly when they proclaim success, wealth and their policies will trickle down, you know that lie Richard?
That’s why I’ve never voted for National. I (and I’m pretty sure you do too) expect them to look after the corporates, farmers (though Country Boy is definitely right when he says they have been right royally shafted by National, but will still persist in voting for National) & the seriously wealthy, and National seldom disappoint in that expectation.
If anyone holds them to higher ideals, with expectations they’ll advance the common good, more fool them. Though currently, more fool us for expecting Labour to turn their backs on their Neoliberal ideals.
Bravo to Martyn for pulling out all of his catchphrases in one article. Vote for Winnie and get out an extra large bag of popcorn
The people in control is what I’ve dreamt of since 1974 when I heard the news of the PM’s death.
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