18 Days until the NZ Election – where are we and what happens next?

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"I'm going to eat her liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti."

So we are now 18 days away until the 2020 NZ Election due on October 17th.

It’s another week where Polls show Labour unbelievably still stratospheric, the Greens holding on by their fingernails, NZ First gone burger, National haemorrhaging votes to ACT and a huge amount of wasted vote looming.

In short, it’s still what it’s been since the pandemic began 6 fucking months ago, it’s just taken the pundits this long to accept the figures.

Here is how the political landscape stands with less than 3 weeks until the 2020 NZ Election.

 

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DATES:

  • Wednesday 30 September: Overseas voting starts
  • 30 September, 6.30pm: AUSA Cannabis Debate: Simeon Brown (National), Chloe Swarbrick (Greens), Michael Wood (Labour), Jeff Lye (Legalise Cannabis Aotearoa), Shai Navot (TOP), Felix Poole (ACT), Robert Gore (NZ First) – live streamed on The Daily Blog and hosted by Bomber
  • 30 September, 7.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 Leaders Debate with Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, hosted by Patrick Gower and post-debate analysis by Tova O’Brien with guest panellists. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account. Simulcast on Magic Talk.
  • Saturday 3 October: Advance voting starts
  • 3 October, 9.30am: Newshub Nation presents Powerbrokers, its multi-party leaders’ debate  featuring the Green Party’s Marama Davidson , the ACT Party’s David Seymour, and John Tamihere from The Maori Party.
  • 7 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Cannabis Question, moderated by Patrick Gower. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account.
  • Thursday 8 October – The Multi-Party Debate will include NZ First, The Green Party and Act at 7-8pm on TVNZ 1. Moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay.
  • 14 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Euthanasia Question, moderated by Patrick Gower. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account.
  • Thursday 15 October – The final Leaders’ Debate airs at 7-8pm on TVNZ 1. Featuring Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, this will be the last broadcast debate before New Zealanders head to voting booths on Election Day. Moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay.
  • Friday 16 October: Advance voting ends
  • Friday 16 October midnight: The regulated period ends. All election and referendum advertising must end. Signs must be taken down by midnight.
  • Saturday 17 October: Election day. Voters can vote from 9am to 7pm.
  • 17th October 7pm – The Greatest NZ Election Results Show on Earth: Magic Talk Radio with Sean Plunket, Damien Grant and Martyn Bradbury
  • Friday 30 October: Preliminary results for the referendums
  • Friday 6 November: Official results for the general election and referendums

 

LABOUR: Prediction 50%+

Despite a deadly plague, people writhe around her, not caring that they may die, because just a second in her presence will be worth the silent midnight of the Reapers embrace.

For the first Leaders Debate, Jacinda tried to be aloof in a TVNZ studio that was appallingly lit with dreadful camera angles AND STILL CAN GOVERN ALONE???

Jacinda Ardern can moonwalk on ANZAC graves and her supporters would argue any criticism was just more evidence of how sexist NZ is.

John Key was contemptuously nicknamed ‘wave and smile’ for his do nothing centrist policy platform where as Jacinda has boldly decided to spend political capital in a free speech war where she will strangle off criticism of Religion.

How….very brave of her?

Like James Shaw who threatened to derail the Government rebuild programme for a fucking Jedi Academy, our Prime Minister has decided that instead of child poverty, the climate crisis, the housing crisis or inequality being her bottom line to spend political capital on, she’s going to instead die in a ditch for Blasphemy and Heresy laws.

Fascinating strategic decisions being made there by the brains trust inside the Labour Party.

She could throw up during the next Leaders Debate and still win an unprecedented majority, the joke is Labour have no idea what to do with that mandate.

Labour winning a majority with such timid policy is going to be like waking up on Christmas morning only to be informed the family have all converted to Judaism.

 

NATIONAL: Prediction less than 30%

“I’m going to eat her liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti.”

Have you seen the reaction Jacinda is getting out on the campaign trail?

People are yelling at her, ‘thank you for saving our lives Jacinda’.

They flock to her.

Knowing they could be infected by a death plague, they still mass around her in writhing ecstasy.

Compare that response with Judith Collins appearing anywhere on the campaign trail. The temperature drops suddenly, Breast feeding woman have their milk tun, Children vomit and men report losing the ability to dream in colour. When Judith crosses the portal from her dimension to ours and manifests a physical presence on our realm, there is a dread in the air, like a warning from Gaia to run and not stop running.

Every time the people see more of Judith, the more they recoil in horror.

Judith is VERY popular with people who refer to Jacinda as ‘Cindy’.

The moment she fails, National will execute her and start the Luxton Dynasty.

They will bury her head and body separately so she can’t come back from the grave.

 

 

NZ FIRST: Under 5% – No electorate

Goodbye Winston Peters
Though we never knew you at all
You had the audacity to impose yourself
While those around you crawled
They crawled out of the media
And they whispered into your brain
They set you on the treadmill
And they made you change your game
And it seems to me you lived your life
Like a whisky in the wind
Never knowing which dog whistle to cling to
When the sinking polls set in
And I would have liked to have known you
But I was just a kid
Your whisky drained out long before
Your legend ever did

 

GREENS: 5%? 

Actual Green Party Caucus meeting

Ok.

So there are 3 possible outcomes.

1 – They don’t get back in.

2 – They get back in and are needed by Labour to form a Government.

3 – They get back in and are not needed by Labour to form a Government.

If they get back in and are needed by Labour, does anyone believe they actually have the skill and talent to negotiate for a transformative Government?

If they get back in and are not needed by Labour, does anyone believe they actually have the skill and talent to attempt to negotiate an arrangement or have the foresight to see themselves on the cross benches acting as a radical critic to Labour’s Left?

Like, there is leverage and power for transformation here but does anyone think the Greens have the sophistication for this?

I fear the Greens would take our cow to market to negotiate a deal and come back with 3 magic beans.

We would say, ‘where’s the fucking cow’?

and they would say, “I swapped it for 3 magic beans’.

and we would say, “I told you these clowns couldn’t be trusted’.

I’ll vote for them, but I won’t be happy voting for them.

 

ACT: 10%

The knitted support toy for the victims of ACT Party gun fetishists

David Seymour is like right wing herpes.

He just won’t go away.

ACT doubled their vote using the Free Speech fiasco the woke handed him and once ACT started recording 2MPs, they became a viable political hostage for the NZ NRA who have hijacked the Party and are demanding 1080 be banned because it means less animals for them to shoot.

Paul Goldsmith is such an over rated muppet who can’t add properly that ACTs insane economic platform of Uranium Bonds and Toxic Waste deregulation looks good in comparison.

Seymour’s wit during debates gives him a pulse amongst the wax work dolls he’s debating but his real turbo charge to 10% will be National’s continued meltdown alongside Jacinda’s desire to side against Copernicus and Galileo in favour of the Church with her holy crusade against Free Speech.

 

MAORI PARTY: Prediction 1 electorate + 1 off Party list

 

Tamihere’s performances in the TV debates are far stronger than many had considered possible. If there are any surprises on election night, it will be in Māori electorates going back to the Māori Party.

 

TOP: Prediction 2%

Great policy on Sugar Tax, reminded everyone that they actually have some bloody good ideas. Unfortunately no one is voting on policy this election.

 

New Conservative Party: Prediction less than 3%

God will smite sin, Māori rights, environmentalism and socialism

Hateful of abortion, solo mothers, gays, solo mothers, cannabis and solo mothers, the New Conservatives love guns, patriarchy and more guns. Paranoid and frightened of any idea post the renaissance, the New Conservatives would represent a great leap backwards for New Zealand. Their half truths and disingenuous lies make them the political version of Whaleoil, but with less charm. They will gloriously rob the Right by wasting vote.

 

Vision NZ: Prediction less than 1%

Hates all the same things as the New Conservatives but hates Muslims most.  Libraries and clitorises would be banned if Vision NZ came to power.

 

One Party: Prediction less than 1%

Under ONE Party, Jesus becomes the Constitutional Head of State and God has to personally sign off on legislation. The NZDF would be given spirit spears to fight Satan and anyone caught working on Sunday is put to death. Gay Conversion treatment is mandatory for anyone who watches Glee. Electricity and any singing that isn’t praising Jesus is also banned.

 

Advance NZ, NZPP, NZ People’s Party & Reset Party

Journalists of principle can’t debate Billy TK and Jami-Lee Ross with the contempt they deserve!

There’s a difference between disagreeing with different political values and philosophies and what Advance NZ are doing.

In the former, that debate occurs within a parameter of 2 + 2 = 4.

In the latter, the debate occurs in a fetid whirlpool of QAnon conspiracy and naked fear mongering.

JLR & Billy TK aren’t good faith political actors, they are scam artists manipulating fear with Facebook bait conspiracy theories.

I feel sorry for their conned supporters, but hold them completely accountable for the QAnon mutation they have spawned.

So I am calling them out!

Jami-Lee Ross & Billy TK vs Me and Damien Grant in a tag team 1 hour debate live on Magic Talk Radio with Sean Plunket as Ref.

Now, you can front up and debate your crazy bullshit that the virus is a bioengineered weapon spread by 5G to bring about a shadowy one world underage sex trafficking Government or you can slither away like cowards.

It’s a really simple choice.

So if there are any of their crazy supporters reading this blog, go tell them that we’ve called them out and urge them to prove they are as tough as they claim.

Game on boys, let’s be having you.

 

The Integrity Party: Prediction less than nothing.

It’s that ugly blue green colour you have when environmentalism gets hit by capitalism. Has the kind of Māori buzz words you get when Wellington Bureaucrats are opening a sustainable pet crematorium.

 

Tea Party: Prediction less than 2%

The People’s Republic of China have decided their investment into National requires a new tail to wag it into an MMP Government.

REFERENDUM: 

Terrible news from TVNZ poll on cannabis referendum, the American Religious Right’s propaganda campaign against cannabis reform is succeeding!

53% of the sleepy hobbits of muddle Nu Zilind say NO to cannabis reform, we want the gangs to continue prospering and we quite like that Māori get locked up for a product that is far less harmful than booze and tobacco thanks.

In other crazy news, 64% say yes to euthanasia

What sort of small minded culture are we where we will say yes to killing yourself because you are in pain but we won’t allow you to smoke a joint to end that pain.

We are a culture with all the maturity of a can of coke. A low imagination horizon where ideas frighten and like a bucket of crabs, we pull down anyone trying to escape the group think.

The softly softly campaign by the pointy heads at the Drug Foundation is failing – this is about your freedom for Gods sake not responsible social policy harm minimisationzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

zzzzzz

zzzzz

…they have disappointed me for the last time!

This is about the State getting the fuck out of our lives comrades!

This is about the hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders that the State have historically punished needlessly over the decades and decades of this  spiteful and counter productive bullshit war on drugs!

THIS IS ABOUT YOUR FREEDOM!

Stand up good Kiwi, tell the State to get the fuck out of our faces.

Now!

We have tolerated an amputation of our civil rights during this pandemic, and we rightfully in good conscience abided by the medically induced police state we were plunged into, but I’m simply over this continued intrusion into the lives of stoners.

Stand up fellow New Zealander, they can’t see you vote in the booth, send a clear message to the State that we don’t want them intrusively interfering in the rights  of what you do or don’t take into your body!

Cannabis reform has always been a civil liberties issue brothers and sisters!

How can we say yes to assisted suicide as a choice but not smoking cannabis as a choice?

How have we managed to get our priorities and values so confused and mixed up?

There is 3 weeks to go, and I will be arguing for cannabis reform every day until the 17th October.

Wednesday 6pm Auckland University livestream Cannabis Debate.

CONCLUSIONS:

The TV Debates will become increasingly important to voters in their final decision making.

With the enrolment rule changes that allow for enrolment on the day, prisoner voting alongside booths in Marae, I think we will see a large turnout from groups who don’t normally vote.

I think overseas votes will go overwhelmingly to Labour and not the Greens.

I think with the huge number of fringe parties we will see more wasted vote than ever before.

I think the Government will be a Labour Majority.

I think National will be lucky to gain 30%.

I think Judith will increasingly become more desperate and vicious.

NZ First won’t be politically relevant.

ACT will suffer rapid growth pains from candidates they haven’t vetted properly.

Labour only need 47% on election night to get scaled up for a majority AFTER specials get counted.

Greens must hit 4.5% on election night to successfully get scaled up over the 5% threshold AFTER specials get counted..

NZ First must hit 5.5% on election night to guarantee they won’t get scaled down AFTER specials get counted.

Because of the high amount of wasted vote, the Māori Party should be able to gain an extra seat from their list with as little as 1% if they win an electorate seat.

 

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18 COMMENTS

  1. ‘Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
    You know the nearer your destination
    The more you’re slip sliding away’

    Paul Simon

  2. I really don’t think many people can sit through something as uninformative and pointless as one of these loathsome debates. You want to see mindless violence for no gain other than a lust for destruction, watch MMA.

    But here’s a left field issue brewing. NZTA have closed the entire Auckland Harbour Bridge because of high winds. I think this is the first time ever and I have seen far worse and no closures but it appears they have become ridiculously risk adverse. So anytime you are out and about and the weather changes, these turkeys might just slam the door shut on State Highway 1, boom, thanks for coming, have yourselves a gridlock.

    I am picking with certainty that Aucklander’s are going to run out of patience by tomorrow with this organisation and if this keeps happening, collectively the government because our economy does not need any further problems. ListenIng PM?

    If only New Zealand had a functioning Minister of Transport rather than a spider monkey in a suit and glasses. Actually that is insulting monkeys.

  3. “Unfortunately no one is voting on policy this election.”
    This person is.
    It’s why, despite the wet and woke of the Greens – they deserve a shot in coalition with Labour.
    That could of course change with Labour FINALLY realising some of half-hearted shit of the past 3 years isn’t going to cut it in a rapidly changing world. A couple of good things such as Chippie’s state services hubs (which shudda cudda wudda been built around NZPost outlets that they allowed to be run down), and increasing allowances for emergency dental care for people on low incomes. But I can’t forgive some of the absolute do-nothing and procrastinating behaviour in some of their portfolios:
    – the lack of fixing various aspects of our public service: its disdain for the OIA and BORA; its lack of transparency; its unethical behaviour; the bullying in some cases; the racism in some departments and agencies
    – the 2 and 3 tier benefit system during Covid leaving some of our essential workforce living on cans of beans
    – kicking the can down the road on public service broadcasting and media reform – much of it contributing to a dysfunctional public sphere and a 4th Estate now reliant on having to beg for donations

    ALL of which could at least have been moderated using existing frameworks, (and processes and procedures they seem so committed to) but for some lazy/under-performing Munsterial portfolio holders. Hopefully JA knows who they are but we’ll have to wait and see till closer the day – the clock is ticking

  4. 30 September, 7.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 Leaders Debate with Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, hosted by Patrick Gower and post-debate analysis by Tova O’Brien with guest panellists.

    This is debate where a trap is likely to be laid for Jacinda –lets walk through likely scenarios
    1: A menacing Judith Collins and how to counter?
    2: Patrick Gower likely to ask lots of questions and turn the agenda “apart from COIVD-19 what has the Govt has achieved? and are they the most ineffectual Govt in recent history?

    Any more to add to list?

    • ” Any more to add to list ”
      Yes now that a Labour Green government is a possible reality watch Collins spend every waking minute striking fear into everyone on how bad that is going to be without Winston and his handbrake.
      National and Collins would have applied pressure to Media Works behind the scenes to ensure that Judith comes out as the winner in the debate. Who is formulating the questions to be asked ? Gower can’t be trusted because apart from the image marketing he gets currently he was Keys media bagman for eight years. Remember Cunliffe and the nasty campaign the media ran against him. Its time we ditched these biased media spectacles and have these debates organised and presented outside of the fourth estate.
      Collins and Gower will be all over Adern as the usual two against one we are so used to with our biased news media.
      I wonder id Adern should just stay quiet and let Judith talk because any response from Adern will be rudely interrupted by both the host and Collins and her authority as PM is in no way respected in these forums.
      Labour stole the election remember.

  5. This is about the hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders that the State have historically punished needlessly over the decades and decades

    At least three generations now have been persecuted in succession, three generations of families have been hit, have been knocked down and locked up, some never to recover. Spirits have been broken and lives have been lost as families have been torn apart. Trust may never be restored.

  6. If they get back in and are needed by Labour, does anyone believe they actually have the skill and talent to negotiate for a transformative Government?

    If they can just get this on the table, then change will begin to happen: POVERTY ACTION PLAN.

    It is NOT perfect. But it is a starting point for a change that is so long overdue that there is now a groundswell of opinion out here in the wider population that significant change MUST happen. …even among normally conservative people. Even among economists. And among the wealthy. How desperately ironic that it is Labour themselves who seem to be the last, the very last group to comprehend this??

    The danger is that Sepuloni, Robinson and co will bury most desperately the poor, out of sight, under the cemented “Two Tier” system. THAT cannot happen. And only the Greens seem to recognise this. And only the Greens have any clear policy to begin to address it.

  7. If they get back in they need to adopt a ‘rail policy again’ as the roads are death traps and rail is the answer to lower the climate emissions inventory they signed the Paris climate agreement to reducing transport carbon emissions and have so far failed according to the Oxfam report below by allowing to continue the increasing NZ truck inventory volumes on roads at and average of 6% to 12% annually and this must stop.
    https://www.oxfam.org.nz/news-media/media-releases/new-zealand-must-scale-up-climate-ambition-to-meet-zero-emissions-by-2030-oxfam-report/

  8. The main media gives Collins all the space and headlines she wants. Naturally most of it is inane crap but it’s getting her out there.

    Latest on Herald: A photo with, “He still needs to meet his maker: Judith Collins hits out at old foe.” I guess it’s about Peters. WTF! They’ll get their revenge on him for getting revenge on them for spilling his private info.

    • No Peter, that threat (and it sure sounds like a threat) was directed at Nicky Hager, for revealing Madame as the Queen of Dirty Politics that she is.

    • Yes Peter
      Winston is suing the SFO now as they said they could not find a case against him or his party so you will see the case now going before the high court dragging in all those who conspired to bring him and NZF down so no-one can rule out NZF returning now.

      Give them hell Winnie!!! we all remember the botched “wine-box case those foes tried to shut NZF down all those years ago.

      • The Right Wing Neoliberal Establishment here in New Zealand want to bury Winston once and for all.
        He has been a pain in the arse for the National Party especially for trying to expose the corruption that went on in the Winebox Enquiry as Clean Green has stated.
        The Old Establishment that run NZ Inc do not want any change however they know they can manipulate Crusher & Seymour and they will get National & ACT parties to follow instructions and dance to their tune.
        Will be interested to see how big a deal the fraud involved is, might only be $1000-$5000 who knows. Winston normally has his bases covered so is this just another smear campaign or National Party Dirty Politics ?

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