The math part of the argument is simple. The Greens have gone backwards in every election for the last 9 years and they always over poll before the election. Todays 6% can easily by under 5% on election day. I’ve also added that the international vote that always saves the Greens won’t go to them this year because Jacinda is such an internationally celebrated phenomena.
The why the Greens have slumped however is a tad more controversial than the math.
I’ve argued that the Greens reliance on twitter praise has driven them to virtue signal their woke middle class identity politics so much so they have actually alienated voters rather than attract them.
The Greens have abandoned real environmental progress against climate change (promising to maybe do something in 30 years IS NOT A SOLUTION) and they’ve dumped a broad-church social justice platform in favour of pure temple mantras that manage to include via exclusion.
Remember Green attempts to use the terror atrocity in Christchurch to push their argument all white people were culpable for that violence because of micro aggressions and casual racism…
Speeches calling out racism, colonialism and white supremacy at an Auckland vigil for victims of the Christchurch mosque attacks had some attendees leaving early, saying it was “too soon” for such discussions.
…when your woke activists starting point is that all men are rapists, all white people are racist and anyone supporting free speech is an actual goose stepping Nazi, there’s not a lot of wriggle room.
The Pride Parade take over by Woke activists, 4th wave feminists and non binary allies two years ago is a perfect example of where the Greens have ended up culturally.
Previous to their demanding Police not wear their uniforms, the Pride Parade had become an essential cultural event shared by all BECAUSE of the inclusivity and love tactics by the Rainbow community throughout the 80s, 90s and 00s.
This inclusivity and celebration of difference won support in the straight community and as Pride grew, homophobia receded in NZ. Genuine progress had been achieved, however woke activists in the here and now felt Trans issues had not been recognised and they embarked upon a wrecking ball campaign to demolish and destroy the past with all the passion of ISIS rebels blowing up ancient religious statues.
Just listen to what those Woke activists had to say in their own words to appreciate how politically toxic their activism has become…
…as social media has become totally ubiquitous within all our lives, those easily identifiable woke green activists screaming abuse at you in your social media feed for the latest outrage doesn’t ‘wake’ you up, it simply creates alienation.
This is why the Greens have barely managed to poll over their disastrous 2017 result and with Jacinda over shining everything they say and do, the Greens have become those people you actively avoid rather than engage with.
I say all this as someone who has voted Green my entire adult life.
Green Woke Activists think they can win the election if they simply cancel all the voters who don’t agree 100% with everything they have to say.
I’m not sure that’s a winning strategy.
While the Greens step towards a wealth tax has made it more likely they will cross the threshold, the simple truth of the new reality we find ourselves in is will it matter?
Bryce Edwards says Labour’s fortunes rest with the Greens.
However I would argue that the new reality has set in motion a change in the psychology of the electorate, that voters new found solidarity and gratitude towards Jacinda could combine to create an unseen before wave of support for Labour that will be able to win them an unprecedented MMP majority.
With Winston unable to campaign for health reasons and the National Party Boag Dirty Politics meltdown, Labour have never had it so good.
The question on September 20th won’t be can the Greens get over 5%, the question will be who cares once Labour’s 50%+ landslide occurs.
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