The latest Roy Morgan Poll is out and it is devastating to National…
In May in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, and amidst gradual re-opening of the NZ economy, support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party has soared to 56.5%. Labour Party support is up 1.5% since April and up a stunning 16.5% since January 2020 when the two major parties were locked at 40% support each.
The rise in support for Labour is such that were an election held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.
National support has dropped significantly to only 26.5% in May, down 4% from April and down 13.5% since January. The large drop in support for National over the last two months has seen the Opposition replace former leader Simon Bridges with Todd Muller in late May.
…this is more proof of the sea change that has happened in the electorate.
A large chunk of National vote has permanently decamped from National after watching Jacinda’s incredible handling of the pandemic.
Those voters are grateful to her and they are responding with political loyalty.
This poll should terrify the Greens as Roy Morgan’s final Poll for them in 2017 had the Greens at 9%.
They ended up on 6.4%.
Todays 7% in Roy Morgan for the Greens can easily be sub 5% on election day.
The hard right vote is splintering to ACT and NZ First is failing to spark, hence Winston’s call to start a race riot today.
The Māori Party continue to be the possible surprise of the election.
I maintain my position that Labour will most likely win an outright majority at the election and that National will continue to crash and burn, especially with a gormless leader like Muller.
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Another FPP “survey!” Ozzie’s dont know what MMP is just like Colmar, URM.
Read the fine print and you’ll notice they dont account for the undecideds, 20.99%!
So 56.6% quickly become 46%.
Although you have a point, and it’s reasonable that 20.99% of undecideds should have been declared in the poll, if it reduces Labour’s percentage, it should also reduce National and everyone else’s, therefore proportionally they would have even less to.
It is a fpp survey, so in effect, its meaningless. Its just Martyn bn a Woke Princessanista!
+100 Denny …and NZF voters never answer polls …or they tell fibs…they are anti-social that way…and they like surprises
Those who don’t vote of course are not identified in polls but do affect the elections.
Reaching again young denn? You do know that your mindless loyalty to the carriers of economic contagion, and societal disintegration is a bit of a joke among those with IQ’s over room temperature, don’t you? Next time, try using logic that works in the real world..
“A large chunk of National vote has permanently decamped from National after watching Jacinda’s incredible handling of the pandemic”
This is utterly delusional.
I was skeptical of that assertion from Martyn as well till I was talking to a 92 year old at church who was happy to tell one & all how proud he was of Jacinda & Dr Bloomfield for the excellent job they have done.
Its It’s completely delusional.
Just as National recovered from the low 20s under Bill English, so too they will again and quite quickly given the economic fallout.
Not in time for this year’s election but the chances of Labour going three terms is vanishingly small.
Correct – this is essentially the suburban housewife and corporate middle management vote. Notoriously fickle, selfish and not loyal.
Where this voter segment sits come the election will depend on the state of the economy and the amount of bribes that each party can provide. I am still expecting a wave of corporate redundancies in mid-June when the wage subsidy runs out at which stage these market segments get walloped. When we are 1-2 months down the track and the data insight senior analyst roles at ‘Globalbank’ still aren’t back who is this self-centered, ignorant block going to blame?
It won’t be enough but it will narrow the margin significantly. Then you have 3 years of dealing with the political equivalent of a petulant 2 year old…..
Or perhaps a large chunk are just sick of National given the low polling and have all gone to ACT. If you think that then you are delusional.
Loyalty to National without any foresight is delusional.
No surprise, NZ first shooting it self in the foot.
And only thinking of power.
Day 11 of Todd watch: Todd is confused day or Dan Bidois level 3 day.
The question asked was ‘Would you like Jucinda to have your babies?’ or ‘Which partys leader would win in a bitch slapping contest?’ or maybe it was “Which party has the best fund raising car washes?’ or could it have been ‘Which party is most likely to generate sexual abuse claims?’…… the graphic is meaningless without the question asked.
The question asked was “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
If you’d bothered to click on the link Martyn provided, you could have discovered that yourself.
@Martyn – as well as clearly labelling all graphs, National supporters would also like to request you refrain from using polysyllabic words in your blogs.
Words like “sell” “it” “to” “China” “for” “beans” are okay.
Words like “compassion” “egalitarian” “inclusive” are not.
To answer your question, I would have babies to neither of Mullers or Bridges babies. Who would win in a bitch slap between Collins and Benefit?
The sexual abuse claim , well given National also had that against them, probably them.
Three different polling agencies. Three successive polls.
And each confirm that chiNational is sliding into oblivion.
A party loaded with so much dead wood nobody dares strikes a match within 50m of it.
Only a clean out of their useless backstabbing troughers, and a renunciation of their failed neoliberal economic doctrine can save them now.
Love that dead wood/match figure of speech – must remember that one 🙂
The prospect of Labour ruling along is an encouraging one – a government free of the embarrassment of the Greens and the self-serving conniving of NZF. I wouldn’t trust the Greens to run a gender-neutral vegan bake-off, let alone a country.
Mind you, what would Labour actually do if they had all that power. Would they dare to get serious about rolling back user-pays and neoliberalism?
But as for voters “permanently decamped from National after watching Jacinda’s incredible handling of the pandemic” – that is seriously delusional. A week is a long time in politics.
PP. Pious words.
“I wouldn’t trust the Greens to run a gender-neutral vegan bake-off, let alone a country.”
I can’t agree on the genda neutral vegan bake off as it may be delicious but they would loose support from the bigoted omnivores from farmer to burger muncher. Fear of vegetable protein is terrifying for some.
When people wake up to the world events, the message that the greens have carries for decades, may become more urgent and mainstream. Then you are looking at a very different picture.
Get fucked.
There’s one hundred days left so plenty of time and the Greens starting point is 6.3%, that’s the starting point. What ever bullshit prognosticating you’re trying to read into from the tea leaves ain’t shit because all it says is green support is moving sideways so there is no direction and no reason to believe that the greens will move in any direction either up or down from its starting point of 6.3%.
So that graph is total unless as a bases for learning anything fucken useful. So what you have to do is look at other things like leadership, party/member satisfaction, bills passed, how the greens fit into and there relationships in parliament and the nation and on a macro level how does the Greens Policy fit into the global economy and I’ll tell you foreign investment in dairy conversions into carbon trading is capped because of corona so facilitating foreign investment into this area will be vital in the Greens trending on par with 6.3% and then you can trace it all back through the macro, to micro and so on to The Greens performance in parliament and its relationships it’s maintained. And then once you’ve been through your process and you feel comfortable with your research, then you can look out for headlines or technicnical indicators like graphs and opinion polls that confirm your bias. But fundamentally your asking what does the Greens have to do to improve or what do they have to do to decline in the polls and you set those benchmarks and when they start screwing up you can say okay let’s lock in a -1% decline. As an example if you go back to the Greens historical polling and ask why did it fall that much then you can deduct that number from your starting point of 6.3% and you got a ration, and there are 6 ratios and the greens want to make sure those 6 ratios are heading in the correct direction. And once you’ve got your process Yknow you just don’t need to worry about no bullshit fucking opinion poll. And I’m not a Green Party strategist so no one come at me after the election with done bulkshit about they fucking lost.
You’re so right, there’s plenty of time for the Greens’ polling to change during the next 100 days – they might slide further downwards.
I demand you explain exactly what you mean there. I have stated why in my opinion why the Green Party will receive X amount of party votes under certain conditions in contrast with your own opinion on the matter.
Well Jacinda and Grant have a tonne of political capital here and in a similar position to the last messiah who apparently was so feckin good he could turn water into wine and make everyone feel good while privatising state assets and increasing the power of the surveillance state.
The time is right for real reform after she gets a mandate on September 19th.
And if uncle Winston isn’t needed will they do it.
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