So what happens next? Curveballs and dark horses in the NZ 2020 election


Thought the pandemic was disruptive? Going into Election 2020, I think there are a whole bunch of curve balls and dark horses that could also destroy the status quo.

Conflict with China:
The looming conflict between China and America is going to be played out in our neighbourhood and because the American election is the backdrop to that conflict, expect Trump to create so much pressure China responds in the South China Sea, Taiwan or Hong Kong before November. Such a conflict between our economic overlords and our political masters will cause enormous waves  inside NZ, especially with the National Party a puppet for Chinese aspiration in this part of the world.

Jami-Lee Ross’s interesting point of difference with his new political party is that he is attacking China. It could be a misread of the electorate with the largest asian population in NZ, or he and his rumoured strategist Simon Lusk have seen something in Botany’s asian diaspora that is anti-Chinese Government. National’s candidate and fundamentalist Christian, Christopher Luxon, should win this seat easily, but JLRs strategy suggests he is seeing something we are not and that could create a curveball on election night.

Maori Party electorate wins:
Another curve ball could be a resurgent Māori Party. They have a real chance in Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Makaurau and with a resurgent Party vote could end up with 2 electorate MPs plus a list MP.

Pandemic returns:
All bets are off if the damn plague gets back into the country and it is a perceived incompetence on the Government’s behalf. If we have to go backwards into Lockdown there will be outrage and Jacinda’s popularity could plunge.

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Muller yells at a journalist:
One of the most interesting parts about Muller’s terrible first week was how angry he got in each of the media interviews. His frustration and incompetence combined to make him flustered and he snapped at each of the interviewers. The problem is that Muller is middle management and as such simply barks orders unchallenged, he isn’t used to being debated or argued with. As National flounder, his temper tantrums will get worse and if he loses his cool in an interview he’s toast and National will crash.

Economic meltdown:
The looming economic meltdown is National supporters only hope that their fortunes will get better, but the counter intuitive position could be that many NZers would cling even tighter to Labour because Jacinda’s promise of kindness and wage subsidy is far more welcoming than National’s ‘get up you big girls blouse, we have work to do’

Major Cyclone:
It’s ‘clone season, if a we are hit by a devastating cyclone with huge damage, the climate crisis will force itself back into the election.

Major Earthquake:
The Alpine Fault is due to rupture. The election would need to be called off if it did before September.

Massive jump in migration:
Migrant workers inside NZ desperate for inclusion in wage subsides and welfare (plus those unlucky enough to be outside the country when the borders closed) are begging and begging and begging and begging for kindness but with so many domestic NZers not feeling safe, the Government wishes to avoid the possible voting backlash of helping those deemed ‘other’ when voters themselves are vulnerable. Adding to this will be an enormous surge in migration from Kiwis deciding that now is the time to head home as everywhere else plunges into plague. Our migration will surge from returning citizens and permanent residents making the needs of migrant workers even less likely to be heard or supported.

NZ First funding scandal:
Bubbling along in the background is NZF’s funding scandals and I imagine that will be the main focus on Winston during the election. If there is an announcement before the election, NZF won’t be able to avoid the scrutiny and brand damage. It will also make Labour question why they shouldn’t put distance between them and NZF.

Majority Labour Government:
The most likely outcome will be a Labour majority government, the danger for Labour is that to date they have managed to shrug off doing anything genuinely meaningful for housing, poverty, inequality, justice and the climate because they can point to bad Uncle Winston and say, ‘bad uncle Winston won’t let us’. With a majority Government however Jacinda and Grant can’t hide their own over caution and will need to actually spend their political capital rather than constantly save it.

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  1. The revolution will come from a big wig country Marx would say. Today in the big wig nation of America the people are actively withdrawing consent for state and federal governments right to rule over the systemic problems leading up to the murder of George Floyd. So arguably the system of protecting people and property globally requires fundamental constitutional reform, and we won’t get constitutional reform with out a super majority of 75% or 90 seats in parliament you can’t make constitutional reforms unless you’ve got a super majority. Then we can shamelessly emplement Fortress Aoteroa 😀 Even if Labour does win a majority they will still require coalition partners in cabinet to form a super majority. They don’t have to campaign for each other or do cups of tea deals. Instead minor parties could campaign on constitutional Reforms, TOP already has there’s, Māori party wants an Upper House, Winstons probably got something sly up his his sleeve. Line up people and attach your wish list to the Christmas tree bill.

  2. I think you will find that the ‘looming’ economic meltdown’ isn’t looming: it has already arrived in many parts of the world and the relatively minor damage to the NZ economy caused by Covid-19 lockdown will look like a walk in the park a few months from now.

    With US unemployment at over 41 million, with Covid-19 out of control across most of the US, with the tinderbox of the racially divided and financially divided society now ablaze, and with an incompetent, self-serving ‘clown’ as POTUS, it is difficult to imagine the US existing as a governable collection of states for much longer. Americans are not going to be going to the mall to buy stuff they really don’t need (by the ton).

    Just how long the Fed can prop up equity markets via monstrous injections of ‘free money’ is yet to be seen. But once confidence goes there will be the mightiest crash in all of history.

    With its biggest consumer market on its knees, China won’t be producing anything like as much crap for export as it did until fairly recently -and that will send shudders through the nations such as Australia that supply raw materials for conversion into stuff.

    If that were not enough to demolish most of the pre-Covid-19 global economic arrangements, we can add Brazil to the basket case list, and circle India as the next major population centre to lose control of Covid-19.

    On top of that tragic list caused by extreme human greed and folly we can add increasing climate instability (persistent droughts interspersed with horrific inundations), another tragedy caused by extreme human greed and folly.

    Anyone who thinks there will be a return to ‘normal’* is deluded or extremely misinformed. Anyone who thinks NZ will be able to soldier on alone with all the trapping of affluence still intact is deluded or extremely misinformed.

    *Pre-Covid-19 arrangements were an unsustainable gross aberration in the grand scheme of things, brought about by the desequestration of humungous quantities of carbon in the form of coal, oil and natural gas.

    • Or National EVER having a fully budgeted plan going into an election. They get off scot free due to the Presstitutes. unlike Labour who are GRILLED mercilessly. i.e. Not a level playing field.

      The job of all right wing parties is to prevent democracy rolling out to it’s natural end and HIDE that fact, otherwise the rich will have to ‘share’ their (all too often) unfairly gotten wealth and really work, for a change. No rentier advantage, no biased tax breaks, employment laws, untaxed housing gains etc. .…..Norm Chomsky (paraphrased)

    • The National donations thing has been chucked in the waste bin. Bridges said the accused were not National party members and so that’s it, nothing to do with them.

      He is a good and honourable man of course, an ex Crown Prosecutor to boot, with good honourable people in his party behind him and surely he wouldn’t put us crook.

      Of course J-L Ross never ever acted as an agent for the party either. It would be lovely if that case were resurrected be the election but it’ll be next year I suppose.

  3. A pretty good analysis of the political situation as it stands, and how it might pan out.
    Without saying so directly it appears you believe it will basically be a two-horse race between Labour and National this time.
    Another curve ball might be the Greens; will their vote hold up to keep them in parliament and if not who will be the beneficiary?

  4. Unemployment in NZ is going to be a lot higher than they expect, because many of the low wage jobs were Ponzi’s in the first place…. plus higher wages jobs are all going….. at present everyone is feeling good after free money and a free holiday for many (have not met a single person so far that did not enjoy lockdown) … but as reality bites, what will happen?

    Judging from a blast of anti-white speak from the woke and lefties (most of which are the white class they claim to hate, get a room to self flagellate in private), it will go down like a cup of cold sick of the electorates and faux race wars, do the opposite and blast them back to the Natz … I’m sure just what the righties wanted. Apparently ScoMo had no chance either. Sadly the lefties can’t help themselves these days and so busy helping the world and their UN prospects, they often forget to check in on their own citizens or their own country full of lazy, drugged out good for nothings…sarc.

    Anything can and will happen because one thing is clear the left are seriously deluded in many areas, of what voters want and think. Yep voters appreciate the free money……. but a lot of NZ citizens are coming back too after working overseas – so yet another group in the fight for that burger King or middle management job, at wages so low you need benefit top ups…

  5. “Pandemic returns:
    All bets are off if the damn plague gets back into the country and it is a perceived incompetence on the Government’s behalf. If we have to go backwards into Lockdown there will be outrage and Jacinda’s popularity could plunge.”

    Yes Martyn; well said above;
    We are terrified that Jacinda is allowing the error ridden ‘Ministry of Health’ to cancel the Covid 19 testing now as RNZ announced below.

    Jacinda will be seeen as loosely flirting with the pandemic Covid 19 disaster here.

    Ministry of Health is not very cleaver here at shutting down the free Covid 19 testing clinics right at the time that Jacinda is opening up the economy again????

    This is a setup by Ministry of health here, and will leave the prime minister Jacinda Adern to hang, if the virus returns again. as you state may happpen.

    PM Jacinda Adern will be heavily blamed not the Ministry of health if the pandemic returns again.
    Latest RNZ News Bulletin 8′29″Digital Bulletin (30 May 2020)
    30 May 2020
    Many Covid-19 testing centres closing down
    3:42 pm on 30 May 2020

    • There is a difference between “the Covid-19 testing centres closing down”& “many Covid-19 testing centres closing down”. Supply & demand probably requires that the health workers have more important things to do than wait around for testing when there are no people requiring testing. I read somewhere that they had the ability to restart testing again at short notice so since they have shown that they know what they are doing so far I think the testing clinics still operating along with GP testing will do the job.
      Obviously the risk of another outbreak is something we all need to be aware of so I would expect that the most effort is put into preventing that happening.

  6. Labour learns to count.

    The Nat’s have ‘signalled’ to Winston already that theyre open to a deal post election. They got rid of leaker Pullah Benefit.

    Gweens are still dead.

    Labour will have to welcome back JT! Hahaha!! or payoff NZF to side-step going into a Coalition with National!

  7. Interesting analysis – my takeaway is that you have ignored the selfishness and greed of the middle. From experience unemployment only really hits after about 6 weeks – till then people naturally think “I’m awesome and I’ll get re-employed straight away”. The bulk of the unemployment for the middle hits when the wage subsidy runs it’s course in mid June. Think accountants, lawyers, office workers etc.

    How this class of people reacts to having no job prospects into at least the medium term will be interesting. Moreover my view it will be driven by greed and increasingly anger – not sure kindness and wage subsidies will satisfy this. It will come down to who offers the biggest bribe to the detriment of the economy.

    • What you write makes sense but where does selfishness and greed stop and survival for yourself and your family kick in. I have commented before a person usually needs to be financially secure before they can start to care about other matters like welfare of others and the enviroment. When you have 3 children to feed and you are on a benefit do you go without bread so you can buy free range eggs or walk to work when you are going to 3 different jobs a day.
      As you say a lot of these new unemployed will have full cupboards and a car in good nick and it is not until they find their credit card is declined that the lose will sink in . There are lots of good ideas floating around but for 2 years we have had good ideas and intensions but still no light rail in Auckland poverty affects thousands water is going to China housing on the go slow midwives under paid The list goes on and the election is just around the corner. Who will we listen to ?

      • +1 Trevor, things most people are upset about, have not been solved and been sidelined for woke and marketing speak.

        There are lots of good ideas floating around but for 2 years we have had good ideas and intensions but still no light rail in Auckland poverty affects thousands water is going to China housing on the go slow midwives under paid The list goes on and the election is just around the corner. Who will we listen to ?

  8. I have no idea why this is but a lot of unemployed Australians are also coming to NZ with their migrant families… weird because OZ dole is higher… but OZ have conditions to ensure that you have to pay more for medical care so having a baby in NZ is cheaper… I have no idea why but yet another unemployed group that seems to be coming to NZ with a lot of dependants….

    The light is on that says come to NZ if you are unemployed and income less anywhere in the world!

    Just like our pathetic consumer laws that have never been updated (aka travel refunds are automatic in the UK due to Covid, in NZ it seems the airlines are dragging their feet).

    It seems that NZ still has visa and residency laws from 1900’s where people arrived by steam ship and their was not inflight nuts and welfare from day 1 for most people who can get here in hours not months and then fly back again just as easily.

    In the age of 10 day temp visas to get into NZ we still have permanent residency rights with pitifully weak criteria, welfare in 2 years for migrants, voting rights in NZ with 1 year of living here and 4 million tourists using the health system and ACC and 1 million approx on temp visas able to vote…

    Ok in 1900, now NZ is becoming a Mecca for those to sign on with….free pensions, free health care, free retirement care, free maternity, free DPB, free wage subsidies… you name it, NZ is paying for it to anybody who comes here…creating an explosion of new beneficiary demand in NZ and competing with NZ’s poor.

  9. BTW

    RNZ woke back in action

    Today’s headlines….

    Immigration category’s planned return scuttled by Covid-19
    (elder abuse when they can’t get NZ taxpayers to give 86 year olds residency so they can claim medical benefits here, yep the elder is in NZ as a tourist so not sure what the elder abuse is, maybe paying her way in NZ?)

    Immigration health rules hit new parents: ‘Not having any whānau here broke us’
    (oh they can’t get the aged parents into NZ to be nannies and don’t want to pay for daycare)

    Visa errors point to Immigration NZ staff intake lack of training – lobby group
    (Apparently, the immigration people can’t spell so they keep making mistakes, maybe get someone who can spell, I hear that Air NZ is making people redundant as we speak, I bet they have no issue being able to put the right details of people into computers, here’s a thought!)

    NZF Foundation spent $130k on company run by Winston Peters’ lawyer
    (no mention of the Natz lawyers and Panama papers scandals to put into context that NZ has massive donation scandals that centre mostly around the Natz).

    Man who killed mum and toddler to be deported
    (Inspite of drink-driving convictions in 2011 and 2012 he was allowed to stay in NZ and then murdered his wife and child in cold blood but NZ will still be supporting his legal and prison stay for 21 years)

    How a top Auckland chef is facing the Covid-19 lockdown struggle
    (Chefs and takeaways the backbone of our nation, “It was a busy night in 1983 when his pregnant mother, carrying Chung, noticed her waters had broken in the kitchen of their family-owned Chinese restaurant.”)

    RNZ the woke read for pro immigration at all odds into NZ and it’s continuing anti NZ First campaign.

  10. The issue has been cynical short term politics and poor, low value spending from both Labour and National. Cullen started it, Key followed it and Robertson has continued it. There is no plan for long term sustainable growth that East Asian nations such as Singapore and Taiwan began in the 70s. We can’t copy what they did however at least have a plan.

    I’m from the right, almost all of you from the left but I think we can all see there is no plan other than getting the treasury benches for the next 3 years. Take for example working for families and interest free student loans – what is the desired strategy for these other than topping up unsustainable households (a whole discussion in itself) and allowing middle class families to fund university costs (again another whole discussion). Is this aspirational or sustainable in the long term? Hell no. The same could be said, even more so for the wage subsidy or gifting businesses $10,000 per additional job created. It is artificial, doesn’t solve anything and not sustainable even into the middle term.

    Unfortunately both sides’ response to the economic crisis has been to delay the inevitable for long enough and hope to hell the great Asian ponzi immigration scheme can begin back in 2021 complete with bucketloads of high end tourists. This is a quasi cargo cult that will only exacerbate inequality and short of a collective rainbow sprouting from our asses not fix our current economic structural issues.

    For the record I don’t know the answer however I sure as hell know the problem.

    • You forgot to mention the accommodation supplement supporting excessive rents & excessive house values which diverted investment from productive industries into property. You give the impression that people should work for poverty level wages & poor people should not be allowed into university, a better approach would be wages people can live on & free education.

  11. Don’t assume that a majority Labour government is in the bag. Please dont be complacent, there are many that would love to see the back of Jacinda Ardern, even tho she saved their lives.


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