The two graphs that spell doom for Muller & National

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The new Ipsos survey is out and the political party that you believe is most capable of managing the economy stats alongside best party for top 20 issues all spell doom for Muller and National…

It’s almost as if National don’t exist!

I’ve been arguing that there has been a seismic shift in the psychology of the electorate.

This shared universal experience has created NZers who genuinely feel they have sacrificed something through this pandemic. Every weekday for 8 weeks they’ve turned to Jacinda at 1pm and they have felt safer and they have felt proud of her leadership.

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They watch the madness of Trump or what’s happening in the UK and they are grateful to Jacinda and with real gratitude comes loyalty in NZ.

For National to have fallen as far as they have, Jacinda has appealed to National voting women, Chinese-New Zealanders and the urban professional classes, groups previously unreachable by Labour.

Thinking Todd Muller has the capacity to overturn all of this in the space of 3 months seems aspirational to the point of delusion.

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37 COMMENTS

  1. My only concern is the mechanism for turning the “feel good” factor into actual votes. Will hands start to shake when that big black marker is poised over the Party Vote and Electorate Candidate Vote papers?

    Jacinda does will not appear on the ballot apart from in Mt Albert I guess, so it is some expectation for those, as you say, previously deaf to Labour, to Party Vote Labour, or say Green even.

    The Two Referenda are an opportunity to turn out extra voters if the likes of “Make it legal” can crank up their organisation in the wake of the Alert Levels. There will be a generational shift in 2023 when boomers are finally outnumbered by the successor generations.

    If there has been a seismic change excellent, but I still feel Labour has to do something big to lock it in, such as instituting a UBI dependent on their being elected.

  2. I’d just like to remind you that in the lead up to the previous election Labour dumped the totally unlikable Andrew Little, appointed Ardern, and subsequently won the election (Well, sort of)

    Much of their positive polling has been due to the Covid 19 lock-down and her reassuring face being front and centre every day with Bridges relegated into the far distance. Other leaders around the world have seen similar bumps, but how long will it last?

    My suspicion is that Ardern will maintain level 2 lock-down and keep throwing taxpayers cash at the newly unemployed right up until the election in order to limit the opposition in parliament whilst keeping the punters sweet.

    The problem for NZ is that should Labour win the election they will be incapable of managing the country out of its current situation. Remember this is a cabinet with zero talent and a history of zero delivery, with the exception of the PMs smooth talk.

      • Yep more trash talk, that’s all it is.
        I liked Andrew Little and still do . So using words like “totally unlikable “, is just straight nonsense.

      • Have to agree with you with respect to Andrew Little being totally unlikable: I had dealing with him and found him to be treacherous and deceitful, and therefore not at all suitable as a leader of Labour or the nation.

        Your contention that: ‘should Labour win the election they will be incapable of managing the country out of its current situation’ has some validity insofar as whatever emerges from the current worldwide financial, economic, social and environmental mess with have bear resemblance to anything being proposed by the government and even less resemblance to pre-Covid-19 arrangements.

        You wrote: ‘My suspicion is that Ardern will maintain level 2 lock-down and keep throwing taxpayers cash at the newly unemployed right up until the election in order to limit the opposition in parliament whilst keeping the punters sweet.’

        How does that compare with what the US Fed is doing? insofar as the Fed keeps throwing digitally-created ‘cash’ at drastically failing financial institutions and corporations at such a rate it’s hard to keep up with the latest figure -which I understand to be approaching $4 trillion (or about $7 trillion of our fiat currency) in just two months.
        .
        Although you have not stated it as such, you imply that National would somehow do better than Labour at resuscitating near corpse that was the economy it inherited following National’s gross mismanagement over a period of 9 years.

        Well, when I say mismanagement by National, I mean mismanagement as far as the welfare of the people is concerned. As measured by how much opportunists could steal from the commons or acquire via rorts, the economy was extremely successful until the repercussions of those policies began to seriously manifest.

        Interestingly, John Key did a runner while he had the chance.

        • No, Afewknowthetruth. Those are not the words of a winner. When your opponent is taking a beating you have to give them basic respect especially in non-combat-sport. When it’s so overwhelmingly obvious that we (by we I mean Jacinda) is head and shoulders above the rest she makes tier1 front bench politicians look average and just beats them wi the ease. In these circumstances the first words out of your mouth is “it’s just a learning experience,” and then if you think they are receptive to a lecture then you can proceed to explain to the specimen where they went wrong, how they went wrong and what they can do to correct fundamental flaws with in there character make up. But until the specimen is prepared for a lecture we just got to let em talk. Yknow? We just got to let em cry it out, that means we have to be adults.

        • Correcting my terrible sentence:

          .. whatever emerges from the current worldwide financial, economic, social and environmental mess will bear no resemblance to anything being proposed by the government, and even less resemblance to pre-Covid-19 arrangements.

    • I think you were meaning to post on ‘Kiwiblog’… That’s surely the only place such drivel could be seen as anything other than satire/ delusion thinking…

    • Here’s the irony on what National would do. Open the border for tourists and foreign students with the risk of covid being introduced putting hundreds of lives at risk. The same party who said reentry into Pike River mine was too dangerous, with all the evidence to the contrary.
      All of the poĺling was down to serious leadership, and to quote an outgoing National minister ” zip it sweetie”.

    • Its like your eyes & ears are glued onto your head but not connected to your brain, National had 9 years, $50 odd billion of insurance money, run a ponzi immigration scheme, low value tourism economy while running massive infrastructure deficits which left the country in a mess & you expect us to believe they know what they are doing?

    • Of course they can manage the country out of this. Nat’s wouldn’t improve things and would rip down all the good work done. Covid isn’t the only thing this government has done well.

  3. Hahahaha. Martyn I am highly amused by your frantic activities since National National changed leadership. You’re trying very hard to convince the nation of something that will probably not transpire the way you expect. Your usingvthe word Doom a lot.
    Under this weird MMP system, I believe National will not only get more votes that Labour…they will also stitch up Labour by teaming up with – yes the Greens! And if not the Greens, then with Act and NZ1st they will take the win.
    You are worried and it shows.

    • Andrew, and Herman.
      Do you want us to put up that large constructed 2014 to 2017 list of ‘National Party failures’ now or closer to the election?
      Andrew said; quote; “The problem for NZ is that should Labour win the election they will be incapable of managing the country out of its current situation”

      • Cleangreen people having a go at Andrew Little may want to look at Amy Adam’s. Little had incredible foresight to resign as leader. Amy Adam’s has no integrity. How can someone resigning for family reasons, spending more time with them, then when a bit of power becomes available, family are dispensed with?
        Back to Little, I also have had personal dealings with him and completely disagree with the character assassinations on here.

    • You have to smile though that Martyn can use the word doom. Like all of us he wouldn’t be here to use it if the doom that Steven Joyce promised us had arrived encouraged by his hysterical supporters.

  4. My rising 86 year old father who is 2 ticks Blue every election uttered last week that he is grateful to Jacinda for not throwing us grannies under the bus as he put it.Vindicates your take on things as they stand right now Bomber

    • So he should be thankful he did not a Boris or Donald, or Simon, as leader during C19–but will he change his ticks? Not picking on you Lionel, but that will be the test for blue voters gratitude.

    • I take my hat off to your dad, 86 years old and has always voted blue and now realises Labour is more community minded. Cheers

  5. Stop the fuckn Bus!
    The Nats Dream Team tells me they know the surveys masquerading as polls are bullshit!

    They just need the National voters confidence, Boom!” There’s 36%-43%!

    A Labour, National Coalition Government on its way!

  6. What I can’t understand is why Nikkey Kaye decided to hitch her wagon to this muppett.
    Its almost like some naive little dedutante hooking up with Donald Trump, throwing out any principles and ethics she was ever in possession of because of ambition.
    Ew! And a good Catholic boy at that! Even one that’s at odds with his Popeness.
    You can’t just put all that down to expediency in an age of (dirty) politics if you want to pretend you hold principles and you behave ethically. Never mind tho’ eh? She’s thrown her hat into the ring, so fuck Her (not in the literal sense)

  7. Muller is as appetizing as yesterdays porridge stuck in the pot …same old same old except cold

    ( lets not forget 9 years of jonkey Nact)

    ….lets NOT vote for the CCP

  8. Have to agree with many of comments above.
    The sheer awkwardness and cobbled together nature of the Tad Moller and Nikki the Knife combination reeks of desperation. The divisional factions and relationships in chiNational must be under some strain (of course “relationships in chiNational” can take on a different meaning – just ask Sarah Dowie and Jamie Lee Ross).

    I listened to part of an interview with Tad on Nat Radio this morning. He blamed the govt for apparently ‘not having a plan’ as we and the world grapple with the societal, medical and economic shock of a global pandemic. Someone needs to tell poor old Tad that there isn’t a handbook for this. In any event, the govt has been doing all the right things, and made positive indications of what they will do.
    Back to the interview…… “Ok smartarse”, to paraphrase Kathryn Ryan as interviewer, “what’s YOUR plan?”. Of course Tad had nothing. Nada. Zilch. FFS, if you’re going into a poker game, and your only strategy is to bluff, then you’re not going to sit at the table for long.
    Fuck this guy is useless. Incredibly, and beyond all reasonable expectation, chiNational have actually managed the unachieveable. They’ve found a leader worse than Simon Bridges!

    And Nikki the Knife has teamed up with him! Nikki….Nikki….Nikki……just what have you done????
    Thrown away your political career to be the token “young female” sidekick.

  9. Well I’m unimpressed with Muller, a conservative Catholic that would like to see abortion laws rolled back and personally idealises US culture and Trump ( unbelievable ) wants to reopen our borders with China as soon a possible. What I giant leap backwards, the National party just seem clueless and certainly not fit to govern. I think National has been an extremely skilled opposition, they should recognise their strengths and stay in opposition, we don’t need a backward looking conservative government . MHO

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