Labour 56.5% Poll – Winners & Losers

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Last nights Poll is just so extraordinary in terms of MMP, it creates unique Winners and Losers.

WINNERS:

Jacinda I didn’t ever think it was possible in an MMP environment, but Jacinda’s extraordinary leadership not only through this plague but through the White Supremacist Terror attack and the volcanic eruption (all the while being  new mother) have lifted her to legacy level.

We are seeing a political leader who has every chance of being Prime Minister for 4 terms and then going on to lead the UN. She is building a legacy.

People who only see the clips of her on the news watched breathlessly very day at 1pm as she led with fierce grace and compared her performance with Trump’s daily insanity. Jacinda has won the vast majority of New Zealanders over. She asked for lockdown sacrifice and the nation obliged, there is a real sense of pride and gratitude in her leadership that builds an electoral loyalty.

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Labour – I now believe Labour will win so many seats in the September Election that they will be able to govern alone.

Now at any other time, the idea of an all powerful Labour would be depressing news for progressives because it would mean the incremental and cowardly domestic agenda of Labour to date would advance at an even more glacial pace.

The truth is that beyond Jacinda’s response to these crises, Labour have done sweet FA to be transformational; the poor still rot, the inequality still soars, the suicide rates are astronomical, homelessness continues, state housing is a joke, housing affordability is a joke, worker rights are a joke, the toxic culture of WINZ continues, meaningful climate crisis legislation is a joke, the tax working group was ignored, the Justice reforms were ignored and the welfare working groups  ignored, (NOTE: tribal Labour will scream the lack of progressive wins is all because of NZ First, but that’s nonsense, Labour don’t want to be radical and blaming Winston is convenient).

All that said however, these are NOT normal times and the pending economic meltdown will FORCE Labour to actually do something new. If Grant and Jacinda can’t radically  rebuild a sustainable economy that can withstand external shocks in a world that will only continue to hit us with ever increasing climate crisis external shocks, the negative backlash will drown out any legacy the last 3 years have gifted them.

 

ACTACT have played the culture war card better than anyone else. While the woke left have screamed to kill off free speech they disagree with, ACT has championed it and with National in free fall, the hard right of the NZ Political spectrum have moved to ACT. David Seymour’s defence of hard right values has given him an authenticity with the alt-Right that will pay dividends on election day. As hard right wing voters see National can’t win, that will turn to ACT to articulate their fury at all the socialism. Luckily ACTs talent pool is even more shallow than Labour’s so while David will get friends, they will be cheap Warehouse Bargain Basement mates who borrow your copy of Atlas Shrugged and never return it.

 

LOSERS:

Labour – The danger of a majority Government is that you can’t blame the less progressive policy on Winston any longer. If you get a full majority, it’s all on Labour, no more using NZFirst as the convenient hand break.

 

Greens – The Greens over poll each election and have gone backwards over the last 9 years so todays 5.5% can easily be 4.5% on election day. Jacinda’s pandemic response has entranced lefty voters and they will flock to her, not dull James Shaw and invisible Marama Davidson.

Also the overseas vote that always benefits the Greens won’t go to them with International media drenched in Jacinda appreciation.

So, that leaves the Greens with the real possibility they will slide under 5%, which makes the fight for Auckland Central essential. Chloe Swarbrick is a star and future leader of the party and if she can win Auckland Central it would keep the Greens in power.

Marama’s strange decision to run a two tick campaign in Tamaki Makaurau could end up hurting Peeni and accidentally gifting the electorate to John Tamihere.

I think the Greens are in survival mode this election, unfortunately they don’t seem to appreciate that and if they do fail to win representation in parliament, it won’t be their Spinoff level misplaced smugness that will have alienated the voters, oh no, watch them blame the heteronormative white cismale patriarchy for failure at political relevance.

 

NZF Winston’s sudden reminder that he hates the free market and neoliberalism has given him a second wind but on this result he’s toast. They will yell and scream about China, but won’t do anything real, just like they won’t do anything real about neoliberalism.

This could be Winston’s last waltz.

 

National – They have utterly failed to appreciate that the country are grateful to Jacinda and want their own personal lockdown self sacrifice acknowledged. The backlash Simon faced from his own supporters on Facebook is testament to this and from the beginning National have struggled to defend their free market values in the face of  pandemic exacerbated by that neoliberalism.

All our cows in one Beijing paddock was Key’s economic model, and National’s total acquiescence to China doesn’t help make them look like they appreciate their own role in making us subservient to our Chinese Overlords.

In the week before lockdown, Bridges and Goldsmith were gloating about how much Government red tape they were gong to burn in their ‘bonfire’, to boast about how much you intend to reduce the very State that frightened people are now turning to in a crisis is the biggest misread of a room since Trump guest spoke at a conference on feminism and micro aggression policing.

Simon’s Death Cult Capitalism Level 2 now demands that the slaves get back to work for their bosses has missed the mark as well. He just comes across like Mr Burns without the charm, luckily for Simon his caucus are too cowardly to take the leadership from him and he will lead National to a crushing defeat.

 

CONCLUSION:

The Poll result is what I expected.

We’ve shared a universal experience of self sacrifice for the common good, and that is an incredibly unique event.

Kiwi’s legitimately felt like they collectively fell over during this. Jacinda and Grant have come to them, given them a hug, told them everything is on the credit card until we can get back up on our feet and given us real kindness.

Simon Bridges on the other hand has just clipped you around your ear while you are still on the ground and barked, ‘Get up ya big girls blouse, we’ve got work to do”.

The electorate wanted help, not Captain Arsehole and the reality comedowns.

Jacinda’s leadership has made us proud and safe. Crisis breeds political loyalty and makes people understand the concept of solidarity as a cultural value.

This incredible result also speaks of something else, the utter hollow vacancy of the political values of the Right in NZ.

Other than keeping power, the Right in NZ have no political values. You would think in a  moment like this the values of self reliance, stoicism and individual rights could be articulated in a way that allowed National voters to hold their heads up, instead it’s all sounded bitter and utterly tone deaf.

In the week before lockdown, Bridges and Goldsmith hosted a press conference where they boasted how much Government regulation they were going to burn. A week out from a moment when NZers would be rushing to be protected by the state, Simon is boasting about dismantling it!

The Right’s political values are so empty that they forget the first role of the State is to protect the people.

This collapse in National vote with a splinting to the ACT right highlights the philosophical and intellectual weakness of National as much as it does the leadership of Labour.

Don Brash brought all the Right into the Big Blue Tent of National, that broad church appeal  however has walked over to Jacinda with every 1pm briefing she did.

 

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23 COMMENTS

  1. Will Bridges survive as leader before the election? Who would want the job? But if they keep him on, how many Nat MPs will lose theirs? What a conundrum!

    • Logically nobody will take up the poison chalice, because:

      1. Anybody high up enough on the list will be immune to the collapse of National’s support in the election.
      2. Anybody low enough on the list lacks the ability to challenge for the leadership.

      Judith Collins will wait till after the election before shanking Bridges.

  2. Martyn , it is getting rather tedious having you attack the Greens day in and day out. Do you not understand that there is a large group of boomers that will not vote for neolib Labour ? Your continuous criticism seems to make you more woke than woke (whatever woke means!) The Greens will continue to get 5% plus because Labour abandoned its roots in 1984 and has never gone back to them.

  3. Wonder is the election result is real, or lasts as post Covid going back to work begins…

    Not sure, but many people I know, actually enjoyed Covid, so while the neoliberals were huffing and puffing, a lot of others enjoyed 2 months alone with their loved ones and got propped up by the government with all the subsidies that for once helped workers of the diminishing middle class!

    I am critical of where some of the money went (aka offshore corporations and shareholders seemed to have received the most claims, and ghost and socially harmful businesses) but of course many people got supported by the COL through Covid, a support that many middle class have never had before, aka post student loans and user pays NZ.

    Beneficiaries I know are enjoying an extra $100 p/w from the winter power allowance so they are better off apart from the rise in the cost of food by profiteering supermarkets, but with petrol prices down, loads of time on your hands and nothing to do, it’s a paid holiday for the workers, less stress for many (obviously not all, family abuse + Hoskings types), interest rates are down.

    NZ are brainwashed and through the gig/contract policy of government, to live hand to mouth and now we have taken that to heart as a nation and had a 2 month holiday, paid for by COL. The workers, pensioners (many of whom are still working), and beneficiaries appreciate it, by the looks of the poll.

  4. The other thing that has helped Labour is that they have stopped banging on about their neoliberal solutions to housing for 5 minutes… same happened last election, the discourse suddenly went to a new area that actually had interest for more people aka woman’s rights not in a destructive, adversarial woke way that people hate (delete yourself bro) , and currently everyone is interested in Covid…. when Labour don’t talk about their neoliberalism solutions people start to like them more….

    • No it’s the “dolphin” vote, those squishy middle voters who at rest only have their brain engaged and drift in the ocean and change or don’t as long as they are personally happy.
      Deep thought or political understanding are absent.

      “Look!-smiley John Key! House price going up!” Such a nice man. Tick.

      “Look!- compassionate nodding Ardern! Free money and holiday!” So kind. Tick.

  5. We have seen before that NZF always poll lower than what they actually receive on election night.
    There have been ‘internal’ polls with similar results recently – a UMR poll 21-27 April had Labour on 55%, National on 29%, Greens 5% and NZ First 6%
    Greens are about where they always are and usually swing behind Labour but during John Key’s leadership strangely they hitched their wagon to him?

  6. I see the main takeaway from the right is that NZ media is enraptured with the PM. Apparently Hosking, Hawkesby, Ryan Bridge, Audrey, Claire, Bryce, Barry, Heather, Peter Williams, Tova, Mike Morrah, Hooton, et al have all been writing about their love for this govt and aren’t giving the right a fair shake. I do agree that the circumstances we find ourselves in do give any government a bump but to say that there has been no negative commentary is grasping at straws. Labour is doing ‘positivity’ and National are doing ‘negativity’. The poll results show the result. Bitching and nit picking is not leadership. Lining up a parade of National supporters for the Simon Bridges comedy hour(s) hasn’t worked. The constant clamour for business over health hasn’t worked. The demand for more money to SME’s and the large players hasn’t worked. Attacking Andrew Bloomfield hasn’t worked. TAXES hasn’t worked. TAX CUTS haven’t worked. The talk of increased suicides was probably the last straw. Kiwiblog tried it and it failed with quite a few registering their disgust at such a blatant ploy. NZ First may well see a change in fortunes as the right look for the mythical ‘handbrake’. I was more pleased to see that ACT can’t break 2%. That is something to celebrate.

    • The talk of increased suicides was probably the last straw. Kiwiblog tried it and it failed with quite a few registering their disgust at such a blatant ploy.

      Yes. I think the AM show tried it too (Dunc et al) – Again the feeling of disgust and revulsion at the lot of those crass opportunists.

      NZ First may well see a change in fortunes as the right look for the mythical ‘handbrake’.

      Agree. While Winston is there, he offers shelter for the disenchanted right.

  7. Good analysis but you are too hard on the Greens as you always are. It’s not easy getting attention while the Jacinda and Ashleigh show was on. So a flat poll result while Labour surged is not bad. To cut through they need to really push the social agenda with increased benefits, helicopter money, and make it clear they have lost the fiscal straightjacket.

  8. Labour can not replace Jacinda. I mean clutch players like Daniel Carter or even nor Jacinda Ardern are a once in a generation occurrence. Treating your coalition partners differently at 56% than you otherwise would at 25% is a terrible mistake.

  9. Whether Simon Bridges remains leader, or is replaced prior to the election or just after, who is going to want the Natz leadership? Whoever takes the job is likely to be a short term leader, being given the boot once Luxon becomes part of the Natz gang of bullies and liars!

  10. New Zealand’s New Labour. Jacinda ( our Tony Blair ) has moved right and captured some of National’s taditional voters. To do this she has sacrificed the social justice concerns of traditional Labour prior 1984. The result was ultimate was bad bad in the U$K and Tony became the U$ poodle and war criminal too. JMHO This signifies the abandonment of fixing our inequality and FIRE economy disaster for short term convenience.

  11. 692,000 people didnt vote in 2017.
    18 to 24 turnout was 62%.
    Gen Y are tribal in the sense that they might like Cinders but it will depend if their mini tribe can be bothered to vote.

    National voters turnout no matter what, unless youre Bill English.

    The middle class are swingers and will putout for $$.

    Labour have to flip 4 to 5 electorate seats and increase the party vote by 350,000+ to get near the latest survey results.

    It aint gunnah happen.

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