No one should think that the 2020 election will be a walk in the park. On social media the activist base seem delighted that the TVNZ Poll put Labour+Greens in front but this could all change in a flash.
We are already seeing National indulge in a destructive narrative for their election strategy. It won’t be about what National will do in Power, it will be aimed at discrediting Government itself. With micro targeting via social media, National can connect with the angry white male vote who feel marginalised and who make up part of the mass of people who don’t vote and hate the Greens.
In the last election, Matt McCarten’s strategy was to eliminate National’s coalition partners so that NZ First could choose Labour. Willie Jackson pulled urban Māori away from the Māori Party and Greg O’Connor was placed in Ohariu to take out Peter Dunne.
This election, one strategy for Labour to win the 2020 election is to kneecap the Greens.
Consider the battlefield.
National have launched their own green proxy ‘The Sustainability Party’ not to get over 5% or gift them an electorate, it is there to just drag the real Greens down under 5%.
The Greens have polled less than their actual 2017 election night result throughout the last 2 years and with Hate speech legislation to be debated and the Greens ability to alienate with their woke middle class identity politics, the more attention they get during the election, the less the electorate will like them.
National will play to that because Green Party activists on social media are the single worst advert for the Green Party.
So with more media attention at the loopier fringe stuff and a ridiculous internal debate over whether they want to dump James Shaw, the Greens will start looking flakier than they did while dancing around a May Pole.
For the record, while I certainly think James Shaw is as useless as a corpse in a deodorant advert, even suggesting he gets dumped this close to the election is pure insanity. The Greens are one of the most democratic parties around, if the Greens are failing to make traction or get runs on the board it’s because their MPs are too busy indulging in the latest hashtag self-victimisation online currency instead of arguing for radical climate change and challenging the neoliberal capitalism that is making that climate change an existential threat.
Blaming Shaw is only 10% of the problem.
So the Greens are likely to implode under any real pressure come the election, and with the Sustainability Party focused on dragging them under 5%, Labour need to consider raiding Green Party policy to steal some votes and cutting a deal with Winston to ensure they have NZ First and Labour as the Government come 2020.
Labour stand down Willow-Jean Prime in Northland and allow Shane Jones a free run. NZ First are guaranteed entry into the next Parliament even if they dip below 5%. Labour doesn’t do that for the Greens and they seize a big climate change policy idea alongside Green Party policy on beneficiaries and allow the Greens to destroy themselves while harvesting the wasted MMP vote when the Greens sink under 5%.
Labour had no problems stabbing Metria when Jacinda took over.
Labour went with NZ First on the Abortion law.
Labour have listened to Winston and realised that the electorate is more conservative than they appreciate.
NZ First has won every major concession they have wanted because Labour know the Nats have a larger support base than they do and siding with conservative NZ is easier than fighting it.
In the wake of the Christchurch atrocity, Jacinda stated ‘this is not us’. The Greens narrative was micro-aggressions lead to macro-violence and all white people are to blame. Jacinda went immediately for inclusion, the Greens adopted the Millennial exclusion = inclusion trigger free safe space model, (similar to what the Pride Parade Board did this year).
Would it be terrible if the Greens were wiped out? Yes, of course, heart breaking but if it’s the difference between a National Government or a Labour/NZ First Government you are going to want the latter not the former.
The cannabis debate could be the Green Party lifeline, so let’s hope that can create an option for them, but the Greens should be very wary of Labour, they have squandered 2 years by wallowing in their own self-righteousness rather than building bridges to a wider electorate and if Labour decides to kneecap them, it will be their own fault.
What is the actual point of having Labour/NZ first in power. To be a slightly kinder version of National. That will not get Labour a third term.
They have let down enough of their voters already. Capitulation to NZ first will only bring in a few lukewarm right wingers.
The point is to raise benefit rates and increase infrastructure investment.
They’ve increased benefits? Really? Haven’t seen that.
They’ve increased infrastructure spending? Actually they’ve crashed it.
What they have done is given students and teachers the ultimate blow job while helping pretty much nobody else.
It has been an idealistic cluster fuck, where the next generation of middle class morons coming through university will get a free ride.
I taught at university for a while and can attest that at least half of those retards should not have been allowed on campus without a bucket and mop in their hands so Why the fuck do we want more of these fuckwits going?
Well if you want to get fucken technical you muppet they’ve brought things forward. So instead of taking 20 years to raise benefits and complete projects it may well take 10 years.
Raising benefits depends on the terms of trade and inflation. It’s got nothing to do with how smart you are, it’s got nothing to do with being brown. If the economy can justify benefit increases it’ll happen.
Ummm, what you said made no sense at all.
Try phrasing it differently and try not insulting people when your communications skills are so poor.
Mother fucker you are the one saying young people are hopeless. Who the hell do you think you are?
Someone clearly more capable than you because your reading, writing and comprehension skills are just shocking.
Look, I know none of us put MUCH effort into what we write here, but do try just a little eh?
I’m just glad you’ve got nothing to do with those students you claim are retards. How dare you think anyone gives a fuck where you worked.
Lol! Maybe you were one of my students?
Never did I ever do a liberal arts degree
Jays I tutored at university fairly recently (Victoria), and I never encountered a fuckwit among the students. Perhaps one slightly lazy male con, and one angry woman, and I will not categorise either.
If, however, there are fuckwits on any campus, then jolly good show, because these are the people who could well benefit by being involved in higher learning, and they have nothing to lose by it, and nor does the community.
I don’t know what you mean by retards, and nor do I think it particularly helpful to refer to anyone as a retard. Most students work much harder now than they did when I completed my first degree (Otago); many are saddled with big debts, and also hold down various sorts of jobs.
I have never heard anyone in academia refer to students in the way which you are doing, or judge them as crudely.
I suggest to you that now, perhaps more than ever, with the workscape so subject to constant change, that acquiring knowledge and skills is a simple necessity which extends far beyond the individuals involved. We need them.
Society needs them. Our future needs them.
Well, I don’t know what magical spectacles you wear but the majority of my students were too lazy to get out of their own way and cheating was rife.
Jays – Like attracts like.
It sounds like you really blew it.
Jays, You’re not exactly Socrates – and cheating is well nigh impossible using the Socratic method of teaching, so I am not sure if you know what you are talking about.
If the students did cheat using the Socratic method, then they must have been very clever young people, and you may have been out of your depth. It’s a mistake that many teachers make, not realising that their pupils are often as intelligent as they are, or sometimes more intelligent.
Paula Bennett got herself some sort of degree then pulled the ladder up after her; try not to be the same sort of person as Paula, ok ? Be better. Young people are ok – in spite of Nat Party mythology, and Bill’s druggies dancing over the cowpats.
Wasn’t under John Key that for the first time actual benefits were raised?
…and around where I live there is still ongoing fantastic infrastructure work going on, all under National.
Might think deeper before you vote
I have thought long and hard about this. Is it truley a great thing that John Key did while he assaulted and caressed woman’s hair?
Labour are not going to kneecap the Greens. MMP is about the governing parties finding a consensus to enact change or else it doesn’t happen. the aim is to have abortion removed from the crimes act, the government are well on its way in achieving that: 94 MPs in favour and 23 against passed the first reading was an outstanding effort. Disagree with your opinion on James Shaw, he’s far from useless and in regards to Metiria who knew the risks and will always be regarded as a selfless hero imo, you blamed “Rich, white, male broadcasters have had their witch hunt and we have lost a civil rights hero. NZ is a poorer political landscape for it
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/08/09/breaking-neoliberal-hate-of-the-poor-wins-metiria-resigns/
If you belive that then you should give up the game. On paper The National Party should cruise through. Could you imagine Simon Bridges helping protesters at Ihumātao or giving prisoners the vote. We wouldn’t be a lighting stock, we would be an uncivilised society.
I dont think National will cruise through, the same rhetortic was also banded about in 2017. National lost. On paper? are ypu referring the recent Colmar Brunton poll that put National no mates back in opposition?
A. No
A. No
The conservitive / right wing view of National is to have a safe, legal and rare abortion regime. That we can do. But eventually there will be things consensus can not agree on.
Taking abortion out of the Crimes Act will still make legal and safe. Dont know what “rare” has got to do with anything. We dont live in a perfect world. On governing parties reaching consensus, you win some you lose some, such is the nature of MMP.
You misunderstand the nature of winning. A true champion will always find away to win 100% of the time.
Liberalizing abortion will stop completely in its tracks if designer babies start showing up, choosing a babies sex, multiple abortion. So it must be rare, little girl.
Taking abortion out of the Crimes Act will still make legal and safe. Dont know what “rare” has got to do with anything. We dont live in a perfect world. On governing parties reaching consensus, you win some you lose some, such is the nature of MMP.
On paper right now, it is close but Labour would win.
That said, Labour are fucking precisely everything up (KiwiBuild, Kiwitrees, KiwiFreeFeesForMiddleClassKids, etc) so I expect the election to be close as fuck.
If the greens and Winston sink under 5% (my Xmas wish) then National will win – nothing surer.
Personally I don’t give a fuck cos Labour are delivering nothing worthwhile at a great cost to taxpayers.
What paper is saying that it is close? National’s internal polling has them at 38% which is consistent with the recent Reid Research poll of 37.4% Simon Bridges -34 which is worse from when Jamie Lee Ross revealed last year Simon was -27 and had stopped showing his caucus the polling, which broke with long standing National party tradition. Hard to comprehension why some would resent this government planting trees, offering free 1st year tertiary education that also includes trades and apprenticeships, remembering that the previous National government created a massive shortage and addressing housing supply, which is the number 1 issue of the housing crisis they inherited from National, also building state/transitional housing as well as Kiwibuild which hasnt gone at the pace they wanted, hence the reset.
Your Christmas wish may not come true. Labour people will do what they did last time, they will support the Greens with their vote. Lost count of the number of times people have said Winston Peters/NZ First are gone, only to return, always poll higher on election night.
Its MMP not FPP, Labour and its coalition partner, NZ First and its C & S partner the Green party that make up the government have done so much more in just 20 months compared with National of 9 years. What an unprecedented miserable mess National left eh? Who would want a return of that? National have nothing worth voting for. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if a number of National supporters decided to stay home on election night.
If the Wage Slave Labour Party doesn’t remove voting rights for foreign residents, it isn’t going to win the election.
” Should Labour kneecap the Greens for NZ First in order to win 2020 election?”
Personally? Yes. Because I don’t care.
Look at them? They look pink, clean, well fed and in the backs of their minds, they’re thinking about pay day.
See? Behind them? In the bushes? Is that a homeless person? Is that homeless person hungry? Lonely? Un loved and un lovely? Sick? Afraid? Cold? Dead?
Fuck them. Fuck labour, fuck national, fuck nz first, fuck top, fuck act, fuck the maori party. Fuck them all.
None of them are worthy of solemn and respectful debate.
Finally someone who gets it.
As the old saying goes “how do you know if a politician is lying? Their lips are moving”
And Adern is particularly pernicious because she has somehow managed to convince the masses she gives a fuck.
You aren’t watching a battlefield you’re watching an acting troupe
Dumbest fucking suggestion ever and I can’t stand the greens.
If Labour knee cap the greens (oh please oh please) it would be shooting themselves in the foot because unlike the greens l, Winston first actually are actually prepared to deal with which ever party suits him as opposed to the greens who just bend over every time.
Furthermore, despite what many think – national are just as likely to gain votes from the demise of the greens as are Labour.
So yeah, dumb fucking idea.
They seem to be kneecapping themselves just fine.
Points to ponder:
1. NZF betrayed their base and will pay for it in 2020. I would be amazed if they retain their 5%
2. The economy is heading downhill fast, in part thanks to some appalling decisions by this government. When the layoffs and bankruptcies begin, no amount of woke politics will save Labour.
3. How well did a virtue-signalling, zero-carbon political platform work for Labour in Australia?
4. What did the polls predict in Aussie prior to the election? 😉
5. Don’t think that the Greens clown act won’t rub off on Labour: We are judged by the friends we keep.
Are you feeling inadequate? The recession will hit the big banks hardest. The government is spending close to $90 billion, rather than $70 billion under former bean counter Bill English. The recession will the big 4 banks in Australia hardest. It’s difficult not to laugh at your shrill claims of dooooooooooooooooom.
1. Betrayed? The folk that voted NZF self evidently didn’t want to vote for the (then in power) 4-way coalition trainwreck of ACT-Nat-UF-Maori that benefited Chinese water bottling plants and such, but left so many Kiwis worse off – way, way worse off. So they chose another path.
Nope – not seeeing any betrayal there.
2. The global failure of Capitalism and the ensuing (repeated) economic catastrophes are not the fault of the Labour Party (although they could help themselves by repudiating the illogic of Capitalism’s quest for endless growth from finite resources).
3. How your self-described (“virtue signalling”??) assesment of a political platform in a different country with different circumstances bears any relationship to political reality in Aoteoroa is of zero relevance.
4. Again, irrelevant. May as well ask who the TAB picked to win the Outer Mongolian Tiddlywink Championships. What are you smoking?
5. If this is true, then National are truly, utterly fucked, having cosseted up to luminaries like Cam Slater et al, and basically acting as friend and enabler to some of the worst banking and corporate profit gouging in this countries history, simultaneoulsy engaging in the worst dirty political manoeuvres to discredit opponents of their vile culture.
Yep, no way should those white collar criminals EVER be allowed to determine our collective interests again.
well said Jase
1.NZFirst didn’t betray their base, a poll taken just prior to the 2017 election had 77% of NZFirst voters saying they wanted NZ First to form a government with the Labour party.
2. The Trump vs China trade war is impacting the worlds economy, even so, the NZ economy is doing better in comparison with a number of other oced countries, including Australia.
3. Whats the Australian Labor party got to do with NZ? Right wing dirty lying politics won the day.
4. Thats why no one should take opinion polling as gospel, the American election campaign showed us that as well as the UK.
5. The Greens are not a clown act.
My answer to your question is NO
head in hands
IMHO this government may not get back next year.
I think the economic situation will be precarious by the time Jacinda goes too the country in Oct- Nov 2020.
Winston cannot be trusted to support Labour after the general election next year as he will do what he always does and shaft those who think he is their best mate and do what is politically expedient should he survive and he will make sure he does in the next 14-15 months.
Nationals support is massive thanks to the cemented in support base that Key gifted them after eight corrupt years , that is his legacy and influence.
There will be another grouping alongside the Seymour-kick the poor party next year too assist without damaging the right wing vote and the Peters- Jones First party will be ready too deal.
This country is a conservative right wing state even without the National party in government.
The greens may well hang on but with the barest 5% and will have to re think their existence as a environmental , social justice party after their exposure to the neo liberal machine and their recent reactions too a number of contentious issues.
Jacinda doesn’t have too hang around too long , she has a young daughter too think about.
The only winner is the neo liberal capitalist monster that is still despite the Greens still very much in control.
Should Labour kneecap the Greens for NZ First in order to win 2020 election? YES!
No and they wont.
NZF has spent the last two years shafting labour over policy decisions. If labour knife the greens to cuddle NZF it won’t go unnoticed. Labour would be seen as crawling losers considering how they’ve been treated. But hey anything to stay in power. Won’t be any different to what we’ve got which is a dithering Government which would’ve made real headway if not for NZF. But we love MMP.
@ New view, “NZF has spent the last two years shafting labour over policy decisions.” What examples can you cite?
Labour said they would not bring in a capital gains tax when they were voted in. NZ First were also against it. They didn’t bring it in, just wasted time and money with the bogus working tax group committee.
Labour said they would not sign TPPA as did NZ First, but sign it they did.
Labour and NZ First both said they would get immigration down, while Greens sort of maybe said they would get it to more sustainable levels, instead they have increased the working visas to a record 250,000 temp work visas while having a lot of difficultly with deportations. Aka they get people into NZ and then they can’t get them out of here! Meanwhile how many of the 4 million tourists living in NZ are not actually tourists but illegally working paid and unpaid work (aka overseas grandparents looking after kids) and falling on the NZ health system when they get sick or have an accident, which the NZ taxpayers have to foot the bill for.
Tourists were supposed to pay a tax to help combat their emissions, but laughably the most polluting ways to come to NZ are not even subject to the tax aka cruise ships up 24% who can discharge untreated waste 3km from port and have very high air pollution, and are widely considered to be one of the most polluting ways to holiday. Meanwhile our carbon emissions fail to mention that airline travel is not included as also one of the most polluting ways to travel which means they can have headlines like “Air NZ slashes fares: domestic flights for $9, international travel for $99”. It is pretty much a joke that something unnecessary for the most part is not subject to emissions controls like holidays or under scrutiny while things like food production which is necessary is!
No wonder the NZ First provincial farmers are up in arms, because it is unfair. If you are to track emissions lets not cherry pick between city / country or even business / domestic. Emissions are emissions and it should be the trivial ones that have the most taxes on them like travel!
Otherwise emissions controls are just hot air from politicians increasing the greenhouse gases, fake policy of emissions that omit many industries skews it, and as can already be seen, some of the most polluting industries are untaxed, unreported and un scrutinised by the politicians carbon policy and the politicians look like fools because of it.
Especially when looking at the make up of the committees like ‘working tax group committees’.. who are full of the banking, business, lawyers and accountant types also profit from so many generous tax loopholes, surprise, surprise.
The government also campaigned on stopping foreign sales but OIO has had more consents and laughable the Greens just gave the Chinese overseas company the green light for more polluting plastic bottles!
The Natz are despicable but the alternative also has a lot to be desired.
saveNZ your perception of what happened with the CGT is dancing on the head of a pin. Unlike you I try to keep my opinions brief. jA and the Coalition had let the commission finish its work and come up with a range of recommendations. All of which were never going to see the light of day, but some just might have. In my opinion labour had made all the right noises about how unfair the tax system is and was seemingly in favour of some form of CGT. Winston shot it down. If you’re suggesting labour never said they would initiate a CGT and the whole debacle was just a way out for them. Sort of( oh well we tried but couldn’t do it) what does it make them look like. In my opinion it makes JA either a very gutless insincere politician who got wobbly at the knees at the first sign CGT could become an election issue. Or conversely she and Winston colluded to go through a process that would cost a fortune and go nowhere. As a retired farmer who PAID Death Duties (CGT) before I could free hold our family farm some forty years ago, I could see merit in some changes that would make the tax system more equitable. You need courageous politicians who are willing to put their jobs on the line for the principles they stand for. None of that here. As for other instances. Well it’s more about power and embarrassment isn’t it. Shane Jones waving a big stick at Air NZ. Winston seemingly unable to support the Government line over some of Russia’s activities. (Don’t want to elaborate but can). It’s just letting everyone know they can make it hard for the labour if they want to.
The way NZ First and Greens are going, Labour might not make it back unless they gift an electoral seat to both parties. Well the Natz set the standard with Epsom so they can’t complain when other parties do the same thing!
Also last election is was as clear as normal to everyone but the Greens and Labour that they were allowing the Natz in because they were vote splitting Green and Labour votes. Aka Auckland central and Nelson had more green and Labour votes than Natz. Labour should stand down one of there electorate MP’s for the Greens.
Greens are more likely to get back in, although who knows with what tangent they might go off on next from cunts to Marie Antoniette housing. Meanwhile the planet burns and oceans are more polluted.
NZ First have already gone off on a tangent as their polls clearly show, and their voters are not impressed.
Labour scraped in, and seem to think Jacinda gold dust might do it again, which is not a wise move, because in spite of Simon Bridges not being popular the Natz remain stubbornly high in polls and their policy of residency for votes with hundreds of thousands of new poorly educated, greedy voters from the past decade, who vote for them, while marginalising more and more local voters who no longer vote (or have a house to live in and can complete a census) comes home to roost.
Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Labour, the Greens, (Lab people will vote Green to boost their numbers if need be, like last time), and NZ First get a second term in office. Winston Peters/NZ First always poll higher on election night, so dont let those opinion polls fool you.
YES!
All political parties will do whatever they can to get back into office. As a now completely disillusioned voter I can’t see it matters much who gets in anymore. They all look much alike to my eyes and a lot of friends both male and female, who I have spoken to.
Suffice to say if you want to claim to be on the left and Socialist its about implemented policy not identity politics and words.
Martyn I’m with you and Countryboy on this;
The greens are a definate ‘liability today’ – with many ‘young radicals’ that dont even talk about real ‘Environmental poliicy’ any more.
So yes labour should steal the ‘former Rod Donald/Jeannette Fitzsommon policies’ – that even I backed as a Green Paty member in 2000-2003.
As the current lot of greens cant even mention the word ‘rail’ any more in the same breath as environmental better transport options’ as NZ First has been saying for years now.
Sad lot they are.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, policy, policy, policy! All this tactical politics waffle just breeds partisan competitiveness and cynicism. If we want to improve the lot of the working people of Aotearoa, we need to envision what forms that improvement might take, and propose policy packages that might actually get us there. Debating the specifics of policy is how we educate each other and build consensus, not treating the whole thing as a zero-sum horse race. Policy, policy, policy!
This is a rather daft suggestion Martyn, Winston first is nobbling Labour in lots of policy areas. However, as a Labour member, I am hacked off and would consider joining the Greens as a bigger Green vote would keep Labour more honest.
Jays: I cannot understand why someone who worked in the university system would decry the free fees policy. Try some critical thinking – something which you should have been teaching.
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