No one should think that the 2020 election will be a walk in the park. On social media the activist base seem delighted that the TVNZ Poll put Labour+Greens in front but this could all change in a flash.
We are already seeing National indulge in a destructive narrative for their election strategy. It won’t be about what National will do in Power, it will be aimed at discrediting Government itself. With micro targeting via social media, National can connect with the angry white male vote who feel marginalised and who make up part of the mass of people who don’t vote and hate the Greens.
In the last election, Matt McCarten’s strategy was to eliminate National’s coalition partners so that NZ First could choose Labour. Willie Jackson pulled urban Māori away from the Māori Party and Greg O’Connor was placed in Ohariu to take out Peter Dunne.
This election, one strategy for Labour to win the 2020 election is to kneecap the Greens.
Consider the battlefield.
National have launched their own green proxy ‘The Sustainability Party’ not to get over 5% or gift them an electorate, it is there to just drag the real Greens down under 5%.
The Greens have polled less than their actual 2017 election night result throughout the last 2 years and with Hate speech legislation to be debated and the Greens ability to alienate with their woke middle class identity politics, the more attention they get during the election, the less the electorate will like them.
National will play to that because Green Party activists on social media are the single worst advert for the Green Party.
So with more media attention at the loopier fringe stuff and a ridiculous internal debate over whether they want to dump James Shaw, the Greens will start looking flakier than they did while dancing around a May Pole.
For the record, while I certainly think James Shaw is as useless as a corpse in a deodorant advert, even suggesting he gets dumped this close to the election is pure insanity. The Greens are one of the most democratic parties around, if the Greens are failing to make traction or get runs on the board it’s because their MPs are too busy indulging in the latest hashtag self-victimisation online currency instead of arguing for radical climate change and challenging the neoliberal capitalism that is making that climate change an existential threat.
Blaming Shaw is only 10% of the problem.
So the Greens are likely to implode under any real pressure come the election, and with the Sustainability Party focused on dragging them under 5%, Labour need to consider raiding Green Party policy to steal some votes and cutting a deal with Winston to ensure they have NZ First and Labour as the Government come 2020.
Labour stand down Willow-Jean Prime in Northland and allow Shane Jones a free run. NZ First are guaranteed entry into the next Parliament even if they dip below 5%. Labour doesn’t do that for the Greens and they seize a big climate change policy idea alongside Green Party policy on beneficiaries and allow the Greens to destroy themselves while harvesting the wasted MMP vote when the Greens sink under 5%.
Labour had no problems stabbing Metria when Jacinda took over.
Labour went with NZ First on the Abortion law.
Labour have listened to Winston and realised that the electorate is more conservative than they appreciate.
NZ First has won every major concession they have wanted because Labour know the Nats have a larger support base than they do and siding with conservative NZ is easier than fighting it.
In the wake of the Christchurch atrocity, Jacinda stated ‘this is not us’. The Greens narrative was micro-aggressions lead to macro-violence and all white people are to blame. Jacinda went immediately for inclusion, the Greens adopted the Millennial exclusion = inclusion trigger free safe space model, (similar to what the Pride Parade Board did this year).
Would it be terrible if the Greens were wiped out? Yes, of course, heart breaking but if it’s the difference between a National Government or a Labour/NZ First Government you are going to want the latter not the former.
The cannabis debate could be the Green Party lifeline, so let’s hope that can create an option for them, but the Greens should be very wary of Labour, they have squandered 2 years by wallowing in their own self-righteousness rather than building bridges to a wider electorate and if Labour decides to kneecap them, it will be their own fault.