Latest Roy Morgan Poll: Labour jumps 6.5 points up to 30%, National tumble



Latest Roy Morgan Poll: National down to 46%, Labour up to 30%, Greens down to 12%, NZ First down to 5%, Maori Party up to 1.5%, Internet MANA up to 2,5%, ACT, United Future and Conservatives stay unchanged.

To take into account the bias against the left from landline polls, Roy Morgan uses cell phones as well.

National historically drops 5-6 points leading up to the election, I think they will be between 43%-46% on election night.

If Labour are lucky, the character assassination by the mainstream media against Cunliffe has failed and  voters have gone against the bullying and have come off the fence to support Labour.

TDB Recommends

The election will be far closer than the mainstream media are pretending it will be.




  1. Now, if only everyone could have heard Judith Collins on Marcus Lush show this morning on Radio Live talking about the results of the inquiry into the Crewe killings that was sought by Rochelle Crewe, Natl would sink out of sight.
    Downright evil, no other word for it.

  2. I know the Left tends to dimiss polls when it is the Right who are doing good, but what the heck – YAY!!

  3. Did they do a preferred Prime Minister poll with this?

    Didn’t see any results on the mainstream media sites.

    • It’s a vanity stat – if NZ had a presidential system it might matter, but as things stand ‘preferred prime minister’ has relatively little electoral impact. It matters for coups, but it seems unlikely we’re going to see one of those this timearound.

    • Rob Muldoon was the preferred PM right until he was voted out. An utterly meaningless number that even Muldoon routinely acknowledged!

    • oh yeah we have dreams, its about all National leave us with. See ya on the 21st Hammerhead… I’ll enjoy watching you cry into your Chardonnay

    • Um, Dream On was by Aerosmith not Motley Crue, they did Dr Feelgood, Kinda like what the pole results indicate …

  4. The only pollsters poll I trust is Roy Morgan. I hate to get to ahead but a week without Cunliffe being denigrated in the media (or apologies) or a smear campaign plus some genuinely good policy, if anyone is listening, is helping.

    Perhaps the Nigel Latta documentary on inequality TV1? also assists to at least getting people to tune back into the left. That show was a big talking point on Radio Live in the early afternoon and by the sounds of it the penny dropped with some listeners who were almost unaware that the bullshit being pedalled by National was not real.

    Yesterdays Phil Quin number in the Herald was the tired same old same old shit criticism of Labour, somehow justifying his opinion with vagueness to burn and a last gasp desperate attempt to undermine Labour.

    Baby steps but hopefully just maybe the voters are starting to wake up to our National Party wide boys!

    • I certainly hope so. It was disgusting to hear a mainstream radio station call Nigel Lattas doco ‘socialist propaganda’. I mean seriously? propaganda? did they think Nigel just pulled that doco out of his arse with no factual base behind it. Shame on lamestream media, that sort of bullshit needs to be stamped on.

      • “…did they think Nigel just pulled that doco out of his arse with no factual base behind it. ”

        Actually, what ‘factual base’? It was pure fantasy, supported by a few hard luck stories and some left wing commentators. We live in a land of opportunity. My message to the people Latta interviewed is to get off your arses and work harder.

        • Re, Intrinsicallystupid – your “land of opportunity” is a fantasy in your delusional view of the world. Not much opportunity for nearly 300,000 kids living in poverty I think.

        • @INTRINSICVALUE – in fact Nigel Latta was using instances from true situations – the two income working poor families.

          You know those who work their backsides off, trying to scratch a living out of appallingly low incomes! Each day is a struggle from go to whoa to pay their bills, feed their children and to simply get by!

          It’s called hardship and it does prevail in NZ, despite you stating it’s the land of opportunity. Only for those who use opportunity to rip off and abuse the vulnerable! Definitely not for the low waged honest worker!

          So your message to the working poor is to “get of your arses and work harder.”

          Do you have a constructive solution to help these people at all, other than to make nasty condemnatory comments?

        • Its hard to accept that the emperor has no clothes I realise, but its true. National have done a sterling job of convincing the true believers, using pure fantasy, that NZ is a rockstar economy .

          “Some left wing commentators” did you watch this programme??? Are some of these lefties the head of treasury Gabriel Makhlouf or Hugh Fletcher, right wing pin up boy, who was commenting that the “Trickle Down” theory is a myth. Most people apart from cave dwellers have realised this fact by now.

          “Get off your arses and work harder”?? I think the correct term you meant and used by most miserable talkback Nat supporters is “I got an education and worked hard” where they are really wanting to add “so fuck you”! (just fortunate you can’t verify this extravagant claim of education and work, of course). That subject was covered off by the examples of the working poor, people who work full time and get paid such a pitiful amount that they can’t make ends meet. And you can bet that not only are they poorly paid but they also fail to get paid fully and or properly most weeks by their exploitive employers, from what I have seen under the constant threat of dismissal.

          Now where is that “Brighter Future again, oh that’s right it was a lie dreamt up by the National Party marketing team, pretty much like the farcical bullshit catch phrase “Working for New Zealand”.

          NZ was once a land of opportunities only those have slowly but surely been limited to those in the know with the connections. Otherwise every other opportunist has packed it in and gone to Australia.

    • “The only pollsters poll I trust is Roy Morgan.”

      Unless they show National above 50% eh?

  5. One Swallow Does Not a Summer Make. If this poll reflects the start of a trend, it’s great news. However, I don’t see any evidence that people are going to vote at all this year, much less vote for Labour. Why should they, when all Labour does is offer only cosmetic changes to National Party policies?

  6. It’s funny, the first time I read that first paragraph I read it as “ACT, United Future and Conservatives stay unhinged”

    It does make sense after all

  7. After two terms people are tiring of the same party it seems, and with this National lot nothing has changed.

    Even Aunty Helen said in early 2005 that the political landscape was changing and labour only scrapped in by the bootstraps.

    This evil National lot have done everything to alienate the voters as they arrogantly ignore the wishes of referendums and petitions given them.

    Case in point for one case was after we presented a 10240 signature petition at parliament steps in 2012 to save the Napier GIsborne rail services.

    Astonishingly Napier Gisborne folk are still in shock as the Government totally ignored it and binned it.

    It was never presented it to the Transport Select committee run by David Bennett known as the most arrogant M.P. of the Key club.
    All these underhanded bad treatments of communities can only go on for so long before they come home to roost.

    Times up National you are voted out to pasture.

  8. A friend of a friend on Facebook is always quoting the polls and making comments about “lefties backing the wrong horse” and “try siding with the winners” and so on. His only response today was “A rogue poll.” Some people just can’t take their own medicine.

  9. I’ve said it before and will say it again; we are heading for a change in government.

    Despite all the best attempts at smears; deflections; and reliance on Key’s cargo-cult-like #teamkey – it will come to nought.

    In 2011, National started out in the mid-50-percentile of polls and ended up at 47.31%. This time they are starting out at the low 50-percentile – and that means an even lower election night result.

    The next polls will show a gradual decline in National’s support, especially as the campaign proper launches on the idiot-box.

    The winning margin may be small – only one or two seats – but Key can kiss goodbye to his career.

  10. With margin of error added appropriately thats Nats 41, Labour 35, in my book.
    As for a few seats in the win, look at the damage that have been wrought in 6 years with a “few” seats.
    Roll on September 20th! And go get him David!

  11. Can only hope this trend continues between now and the election.

    Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see Key taken down on 20 September. Perhaps that might become a reality before then. Like on the evening of Monday 15 September!

  12. This is the best news I’ve heard in a long time and I take back some of venting at the Labour Party. Let’s hope it’s a trend.

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