Latest Roy Morgan Poll – the game has turned!

44
2

.

Red Green Up

.

Don’t let anyone tell you that the Left is headed for defeat on 20 September.

Don’t let the polls tell you that the election is done-and-dusted and Key will be settling in for a third term.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

Don’t let Labour’s right-wing MPs’ shenanigans demoralise you.

Don’t let media smear campaigns and various Tory dirty tricks shake your faith.

The election campaign has only just begun, and the most recent poll – from Roy Morgan –  will be giving Key, Joyce, Brownlee, English, Collins, Bennett, etc, sleepless nights from now on.

The Roy Morgan poll, carried out at the end of July, paints a grim picture for the Nats;

National: 46%  (down 5%)

Labour: 30% (up 6.5%)

Greens: 12% (down 3%)

NZ First: 5% (down 1%)

Internet-Mana Party Alliance: 2.5% (up 1%)

Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)

ACT:  0.5% (unchanged)

United Future: 0.5% (unchanged).

Conservative Part:  1% (unchanged)

National’s 46 percentage rating is a massive drop from the low-to-mid 50s it has been enjoying in polls up until now. Even the previous Roy Morgan poll (which is the main poll to consider as it is the only one that calls cellphones) had National on 51%.

Make no mistake about the significance on this fall; National is now polling below it’s election night result of 47.31%!

Why is this significant and ultimately so terrifying for this government?

Because if you glance to the chart below, you will see polling results for the month of October, preceding the 2011 General Election, which had National rating between 53.5% to 57.4%.

.

National Labour Greens NZ First
One News Colmar Brunton [1]2 October 2011 56% 29% 9% 1.9%
3 News Reid Research [1]2 October 2011 57.4% 26.6% 9.8% 1.9%
Roy Morgan Research [1]26 September – 9 October 2011 55.5% 28% 9.5% 2%
Roy Morgan Research [1]10–23 October 2011 53.5% 29.5% 9.5% 2.5%
Herald-DigiPoll [1]20–27 October 2011 53.5% 30.3% 9.5% 2.85
Actual Election Night Result [2]26 November 2011 47.31% 27.48% 11.06% 6.59%
Fairfax/Ipsos Poll [6]17 July 2014 54.8% 24.9% 12.4% 2.6%
Herald-DigiPoll [5]20 July 2014 52% 26.5% 9.9% 4.6%
One News Colmar Brunton [4]27 July 2014 52% 28% 10% 4%
Roy Morgan [3]31 July 46% 30% 12% 5%
Election Night: Frank’s Prediction20 September 2014 44% 33% 13% 5%

 

.

Yet, less than two months later, their actual election night result was far less – 47.31%.

Polling results are only approximate indicators. They are never accurate for the following reasons;

  1. They do not take into account the Undecideds/Won’t Say respondents.
  2. Undecideds become Decideds, as they firm up their decisions.
  3. People change their minds.

If National is polling mid-to-high 40s at this point in the campaign, their election night result will be even lower. My guess is around, or below,  the 45% mark.

My prediction for this year’s election night results:

National: 44% – 53 seats

Labour: 33% – 40 seats

Greens: 13% – 16 seats

NZ First: 5% – 6 seats

Mana Movement: 4 seats

Maori Party: 1 seat

ACT:  1 seat

Dunne: nil – seat loss

NZ First will try to be the “kingmaker” and my prediction is that he will coalesce with National. The Maori Party will coalesce with Labour, giving a Labour-led coalition a one seat majority.

 

.


 

References

Roy Morgan:  National (51%) increases election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (38.5%)

Wikipedia:  Election Night results: 2011

[1] Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2011

[2] Election Night results: 2011

[3] Roy Morgan: National (46%) lead over Labour/ Greens (42%)

[4] One News Colmar Brunton: More poll woes for Labour as National rides high

[5] NZ Herald: National and John Key more favoured than ever for next government

[6] Fairfax/Ipsos Poll: Labour’s poll woe deepens

 

Other blogposts

The Daily Blog:  Latest Roy Morgan Poll: Labour jumps 6.5 points up to 30%, National tumble

The Standard: Latest Roy Morgan poll


 

.

Lorde wants you to vote

Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes

.

.

= fs =

44 COMMENTS

  1. Nice analysis, Frank. Hope it comes to pass. I do wonder if you’re both underestimating NZF’s support at 5% and their also their likely direction post election. I haven’t seen or heard anything remotely indicative of a desire to go with National. If anything Winston seems decidedly frosty toward them (and why wouldn’t he be after they shafted him 5 years ago?).

    The Maori Party is interesting, too. My gut feeling is they are gone altogether, but if they do win a seat, they’ll probably pick up a list MP as well. Like you, I think they might lean toward Labour this time, just to shore up their support and remain relevant.

    • Te Reo – I’m guessing NZ First will around 5% to 6% of the vote. Unlikely if it’s more, but equally unlikely they won’t cross the 5% threshold.

      ” I haven’t seen or heard anything remotely indicative of a desire to go with National.”

      Peters had the same attitude in ’96 – and we know how that turned out. Admittedly, it was New Zealand’s first MMP election and first post-election coalition negotiations, so everyone was on a learning curve.

      Truth is, no one knows Peters’ intentions and that kind of reticence to be candid with the electorate begs suspicion. So, colour me suspicious.

      Re the Maori Party. I concur that this time they’ll lean to Labour. Especially if ACT pursues it’s rhetoric to abolish the Maori seats and makes it a condition of coalition with National. For sheer survival-sakes, they’d be forced to support a Labour-led government.

      My ‘gut-feeling’ tells me they’ll get only one MP.

      The rest of the Maori Electorate seats will be shared between Labour and Mana.

      ACT will win Epsom, mainly because Epsom National voters are like Pavlov’s dogs; trained to respond according to certain “stimulii” from the National Party Politburo. I suspect they’d sacrifice their first born as well, if called on, though Key may leave that in the back-drawers as “Plan B”.

      There is a campaign afoot in Ohariu which will focus on Dunne. His re-election chances – especially if Green supporters vote sensibly this time – are dismal.

      As for National; they’ll be lucky to get the same result they got last time – a fact which Matthew Hooton has repeatedly pointed out on “Nine to Noon”, Radio NZ, at every opportunity.

      Matthew understands voting patterns perfectly and knows that Key’s chances for a Third Term are 50/50, at best. Not good odds.

      This is why I am quite optimistic for 20 September. The polls (except Roy Morgan) are a fantasy and not to be taken seriously. This is something experienced Labour MPs and party strategists should know.

      Our job is to get out the vote – especially non-voters – and make sure they cast a vote for the Left (Labour, Greens, or Mana-Internet).

      • ACT wont win Epsom.

        They’ll be more likely to win Clutha-Southland with Don Nicholson up against Todd Barclay.

        An unknown tobacco lobbyist against a well known former Federated Farmers president.

        No one’s looking South towards Dipton Land, when they probably should. Nothing in the North but the damned white walkers.

  2. So many permutations, see you on Sept 21!
    • Mana Movement=Internet Mana alliance? their polling has to go up a bit yet to achieve anything but Hone and Annette winning seats would really open it up enabling Laila, John Minto, Chris Yong and Miriam Pierard to get in.
    • Māori Party likely to be missing but with a seat could go with Labour now that Tari has departed as she seemingly hated Labour worse than anything National did to the poor, plus it might belatedly salvage something in reputation perhaps.
    • Winston First–never count out but again dislikes lefties more than Key rubbing his nose in it in 2008. But if he can be cornered into a ‘change the government’ position…
    • Colonservatives will rise on the back of a large print budget and attract a nice plump but wasted older reactionary vote.
    • Green is the quiet achiever with a seemingly firm 11% plus for several years now, they may spike a couple of points too.

    A few weeks of “fear and loathing on the campaign trail” are needed to judge the momentum or otherwise of Labour and Greens as well as the rats and mice.

    Plus if against past voter behaviour Hairdo is sent packing and Goldsmith is prodded into an Epsom win UF and ACT are goners which tips more in favour of a Labour Green led government.

    • Mistery – wouldn’t that make a nice early Christmas prezzie?

      As well as National’s defeat, we could look forward to Key’s resignationas National’s leader. That leaves Joyce or Collins for the leadership bid.

      I pray to the political gods that the National caucus chooses Judith Collins. (Jenny Shipley, anyone?) That would make National unelectable for the next ten years.

      • after Joyces performance on The Nation this Saturday, I would say he’s equally unelectable. If Judith Collins is the new Jenny Shipley, surely Steven Joyce is channeling Muldoon.

        • Hmmm, I think Muldoon would’ve have tried to demolish Robertson with a more quiet, reserved tone. I remember Muldoon “in action”, and it was his slow, measured tones that raised the hairs on the back of your neck. A kind of subtle menacing.

          But you’re right, Anker. After that performance from Joyce, the Nats will be looking further afield to replace Key…

        • Muldoon was a powerful debater until the booze got to him. Joyce is just a pathetic nutcase. There’s no comparison.

      • If you saw Joyce’s ‘debate’ with Grant Robertson he’d be well up to the task of rendering the Gnats unelectable too.

    • Connor – In 2011, Dunne managed to win Ohariu with a slim majority of 1,392 electorate votes.

      Green Party supporters gave 2,160 electorate votes to Gareth Hughes – a supremely wasted effort.

      If those same Green Party voters had given their 2,160 electorate votes to Charles Chauvel, then Chauvel would have beaten Dunne by 768 electorate votes.

      (ref: http://www.parliament.nz/en-nz/mpp/electorates/data/DBHOH_Lib_EP_Ohariu_Data_3/%C5%8Dhariu-electoral-profile)

      And National would have been down by one seat in Parliament.

      • But Chauvel isn’t standing this time and Labour have acted very unstrategically by putting up an unknown. And National has done the same, so it’s not obvious what voters who want to get rid of Dunne should do. I fear the vote will be more evenly split, with Dunne coming through the middle to win comfortably.

    • Connor – just heard that Conservatives are standing in Epsom. What’s the bet they will stand in Ohariu as well. Let the games begin!!!!!!!!!

  3. With more than 10 polls with Labour under 30%…. thats no longer a coin toss. no matter how many excuses you give them.

    So many things will have to work in Labours favour and thus they are in the low 20s on ipredict.

  4. I have never voted National. With six years of National plundering NZ, It is beyond me why ANYONE would.

  5. The NEXT poll will be a real teller, what with the revelations about Lochinver Station. This whole selling off our land and houses to foreigners is about to come to a huge pus filled head

  6. A lot of water to flow under the bridge yet. The TV debates can create big swings (e.g. Dunne’s worm) and September 15th is an unknown plus who knows how many gaffes and revelations. There’s barely room for policy!

  7. I wouldnt be so sure Joyce wouldnt make National unelectable for the next ten years as well , either…judging by the childish pratts performance the other night against Grant Robertson.

    I mean …can you imagine that gormless buffoon as Prime Minister? …what a joke!!!

    Either or will do….Collins or Joyce…., matters not…both will keep the neo liberals nail in the coffin firmly nailed down. They therefore would become indespensible to the Left ,….so give them just enough oxegyn to breathe and no more…they will do us proud.

  8. Frank, why would Winston want to prop up a tired third term National govt? It would be a short lived association with a very small bauble. Winston is smarter wiser now than in 1996 and won’t back a loser.

    One possibility is Winston could sit on the cross benches but I see NZ First going with Labour + Greens especially if the collective percentage points are higher than Nationals. Your own prediction puts National at 53 seats, Labour + Greens at 56 seats.

    • Kat – “Frank, why would Winston want to prop up a tired third term National govt?”

      Looking at it from Peters’ viewpoint and not from the Left, he might see it as a “new” National-NZ First government rather than a Third Term National regime. At least, that’s the rationale he used in the late 1990s for coalescing with the Nats despite his insistence they were “not fit to govern”.

      Despite our opinions of Key, one thing is for certain – he is a shrewd operator and if he can get Peters on-side with certain negotiation compromises, then that almost gives him the majority he needs: National (53) + NZ First (6) + Act (1) = 60.

      If Key manages to persuade Te Ururoa Flavell to give confidence and supply support to a National-led coalition – then Key’s third term is assured (barring any unforeseen electorate by-elections.)

      Some big “ifs”, I know… (Here’s hoping the ‘AAA’ batteries in my crystal ball aren’t running down…)

  9. Here you go for anyone who is unconvinced about what is going on with our farmland

    http://www.interest.co.nz/news/71234/former-act-leader-and-mp-john-banks-convicted-filing-false-electoral-returns-labour-rejec

    Now scroll down to the comment from Henry Tull which is a translation from a Chinese article about Hunan-Dakang

    Summary
    “Dakang Pasture Farming said that through this acquisition, the company will form a milk self-sufficiency, to get rid of dependence on third-party supply for the company to build a line from “pasture to table” a complete industrial chain closed loop ”

    Hunan-Dakang is a huge farming operation that is linked to Shanghai Pengxin and what they have in mind for this country (and others, no doubt) is made very very clear in a very few words
    Do go have a look Tull’s comment is about halfway down, sorry there are so many to scroll through, but this is important

  10. I suspect your analysis is closer to the reality than anything in the mainline media. I would add that I don’t think National-NZ First would last three years and Labour-Greens and Mana would have to deal forcefully, and with apologies to Joseph Conrad and Francis Ford Coppola, with extreme prejudice to the right wing of the Labour caucus for it to last three years in govt as well.

  11. Few things that strike me about this post.

    Obviously there is a left bias to your analysis but what’s your justification for Labour increasing their share of vote this election? You point to National getting a lower % of the 2011 vote compared to how they were polling, but ignore the fact that labour also got less than they polled in 2011?

    You also think Dunne will lose because Greens supporters will back the labour candidate but neglect to mention that the National candidate got over 6,000 votes in 2011, which would cancel out the Greens switching to labour if National voters switch this time around.

    I know you’re preaching to the choir on this site but being a little less selective with your numbers wouldn’t go a miss.

    • Craig.

      The majority of NZ hate John Key.
      You need to realise that.
      And you know, it serves him right – for being such a liar and a cheat!
      He is a psychopathic narcissist who surrounds himself with other psychopathic narcissists.

      There are less of his wealthy mates in this country, than there are the old and newly poor of this country, so how can he possibly win. He can’t!
      Keys number is up, and he is very lucky he hasn’t yet been charged with treason, or worse.

      Evil be gone, and hurry up about it too – so we can get back to being a country once again, rather than Keys own personal business tool.

      Opinion and belief.

      • Are you interested in addressing any of the points I’ve raised or would you just prefer to rant?

        Also, could you provide the source of your statement “The majority of NZ hate John Key”. You and many others on this site hate him but from what I’ve read, he is still a reasonably popular prime minister.

        • Craig:

          No. Absolutely not. Not interested at all.

          The main focus in my life right now, is making sure that the dictator who has lead this country to the abysmal pits it is currently in, is charged with Treason – for his deliberate undermining of absolutely ‘everything’ in my country!

          Single-mindedly, and one-eyedly I am denegrating this evil and disgusting person, who no longer fits in the ranks of humanity!

          You ca carryon your waffleon all you like.
          The majority of NZers Hate Key , as do I!

          Opinion and belief.

        • Craig –

          You and many others on this site hate him but from what I’ve read, he is still a reasonably popular prime minister.

          So was Muldoon and Nixon.

          “Popularity” is no indicator of competance.

    • Craig says:
      August 3, 2014 at 6:18 pm

      Few things that strike me about this post.

      Obviously there is a left bias to your analysis but what’s your justification for Labour increasing their share of vote this election?

      Firstly, I also blog when the Left suffers a major drop in polling; http://fmacskasy.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/labours-collapse-in-the-polls-why/

      Secondly, “justification”? What “justification” do you think I require?

      If commentators need “justification” to extrapolate on polls, we’d never have commentary and analysis.

      Are you suggesting we take polls at face value with no response? What justification do you have for such a suggestion?

      Or, as is more likely, you simply disagree with my comments but haven’t any idea how to address them, so simply side-step with an unrelated, silly question?

  12. Maori party joining Labour? Having painted themselves into the political corner as the “repeal foreshore’n seabed” party to exist in the first place their relevance has slid down the slippery slope of infighting over places at shonkeys’ table ever since. They are history.

  13. Can I ask why you excluded the November 2011 polling results. These appear to closer to the election results than the months you have “randomly” selected?

    • Jason – No, you are not correct. The November 11 polling results were conducted in the same month as the 2011 Election .

      We are sill just under two months out from this years election. The figures I posted correlate (roughly) to two months out from the 2011 Election.

      • From above – “Polling results are only approximate indicators”

        Yet if you view the Wikipedia page you reference they are fairly close in November.

        Surely, it will be more reasonable to say that Poll results conducted closer to the election are more accurate than those carried further out?

Comments are closed.