BEN MORGAN: Pacific Update – Discussing geo-political and military activity in the Pacific

Sino-Japanese tension and Japan’s rise as a military power

This week, China issued a warning to Japanese Coast Guard vessels operating in the East China Sea.[i] A small incident that highlights ongoing Sino-Japanese diplomatic tension.

Sino-Japanese rivalry is becoming a defining feature of Pacific geo-politics. Japan is worried by China’s assertive territorial claims in the East and South China Seas and about the nation’s increasing military capability. Additionally Japan is likely to be concerned about the future reliability of its most important ally – the US.

In response, Japan is rapidly expanding its military capabilities, causing China great concern. China has not forgotten Japan’s occupation of its territory during World War Two, a history that weighs heavily on contemporary Chinese strategy.

Since November 2025, the two nations have been involved in a heated diplomatic dispute. It started after Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi told the Japanese parliament that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a security issue for Japan.[ii] China responded to Taikaichi’s comments with a range of diplomatic threats and economic sanctions. Takaichi has not backed down and after winning a snap election early this year has a political mandate to continue standing up to Chinese pressure.

Japanese Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s comments at the recent Shangri La Dialogue about strengthening Japan’s defence capabilities also raised Chinese ire.[iii] Koizumi’s comments are notable because they reinforce that Japan’s pursuit of greater military capability is policy, regardless of China’s concerns or its diplomatic threats.

The change in Japanese defence policy is historic, Article 9 of Japan’s constitution forbids Japan from settling international disputes by, or maintaining the potential to make war, restrictions that remain extant.

So, while Japan’s procurement of air-defence and anti-ship missiles sit squarely within this remit the term ‘self-defence’ is being expanded to include a range of capabilities that are more expeditionary and allow Japan to participate in overseas collective security activities.[iv] This includes participation in joint exercises, deploying staff to work with NATO,[v] and creating military units capable of expeditionary operations like aircraft carriers and amphibious warfare ships.

Expeditionary capabilities could also allow Japan to deploy military force in support of its allies in the event of conflict. For instance, to support a US-led defence of Taiwan.

Japan’s proposed defence budget is US$ 58 billion this financial year, and it is on track to become the world’s third largest spender of defence over the next five years.[vi] A rate of expenditure that is delivering significant capability increases and that worries China because Japan’s capability improvements include both defensive and expeditionary capabilities.

Japan is investing heavily is air-defence and anti-ship missiles

Japan is building and deploying more air-defence missiles. Japan already has an extensive range of home-grown air-defence missiles like the short-range Type 11 or the medium-range Type 03 but is building more, and is also starting to build combat-proven American Patriot missiles.[vii]

Alongside improvements in air-defence, Japan is also building and deploying larger numbers of shore based anti-ship missiles. Japanese anti-ship missiles range from the short-range Type 88 that has a range of up-to approx. 200km (124 miles) to medium-range Type 12 and Type 25 missiles, some of which can hit targets up-to approx. 1000km (620 miles) away.

Additionally, Japan is also developing the Type 25 Hyper-Velocity Gliding Projectile (HVGP) that has a planned range of 2,000 km (1240 miles). A weapon system that will provide Japan with a very effective, long-range area-denial capability.

Specifically, Japan is strengthening the defences of its southern Senkaku Islands because they are near Taiwan. One island, Yonaguni is only 110km (70 miles) from the Chinese coast. Notably, Japan is also deploying missiles and surveillance radars to support them to their far eastern islands – Iwo Jima and Minamitorishima.

Japanese planners are clearly aware that allowing these remote islands to be captured would provide a base from which to attack mainland Japan. An acknowledgement that any future military conflict with China will involve vast distances and very long-range strikes.

New expeditionary capabilities are being developed and tested.

A significant change in Japanese defence policy is the development of amphibious and air mobile forces that can be used to project power. For example, Japan’s Izumo and Hyuga Classes ‘helicopter destroyers’ or ‘helicopter carriers’ are practicing operations with F-35 fighter planes, signalling the potential for these vessels to operate as small aircraft carriers. [viii]

Japan is also investing in landing ships and recently sent a carrier JS Ise, a landing ship and 1,400 personnel to Exercise Balikatan in May 2026. Japan also used this exercise to test expeditionary deployment of Type 88 anti-ship missile.[ix] Deployments that indicate an interest in expeditionary power projection using carriers and amphibious warfare ships.

Notably, Japan moved its elite Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade to new southern bases at Sasebo alongside VF-22 Osprey transport aircraft last year. Positioning that allows for rapid reinforcement of garrisons in the Senkaku Island Chain.

China’s position

Japan’s rearmament is of great concern to China, and Chinese diplomats have made a number of statements opposing Japanese defence spending, a programme they refer to as ‘remilitarisation.’ A pointed reference to Japan’s militarist foreign policy before and during World War Two. For example, the BBC recently reported that before the Shangri La Dialogue “China’s national defence ministry spokesman Jiang Bin had warned “the grey rhino of a remilitarised Japan is gathering speed” and called on the international community to “work together to contain Japan’s neo-militarism“.[x]

The current diplomatic battle with Japan is also provides China an opportunity to test the US position. At this point, the US reaction has been minimal and this could contribute to escalation. For example, China may read the lack of US support as an opportunity to push Japan harder. Likewise, it could encourage Japan to look to its own defence, increasing spending, and building wider defence networks. Activities that are likely to concern China.

This week, The Diplomat reported that a Japanese trade delegation visited China, cautiously hinting that this visit could represent an initial thaw in relations.[xi] Regardless of a thaw, the tension between Japan and China is far from over. Japan’s increasing defence spending, the proximity of Taiwan to Japan, and Takaichi’s willingness to stand up to Chinese pressure all contribute to this relationship becoming more tense.

Japan’s rise should be noted by all Pacific nations because as it develops greater military power it will increasingly become a defence leader for democratic nations in the region. Australia, South Korea and Philippines are already working more closely with Japan, and it is only a matter of time before smaller nations enter similar defence relationships.

Japan is also already engaged with NATO so may also develop as the organisation’s lead in the Pacific because it is the largest of the alliance’s four Indo-Pacific Partners (Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand).

Therefore, Japan should be closely studied because its defence decisions are likely to impact across the region and smaller nations will increasingly be influenced by Japanese policy.

Australian defence chiefs highlight security threat

Speaking at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on 25 June 2026, Air Marshall Stephen Chappell, Chief of the Australian air force spoke bluntly about regional security. In his opinion, Australia’s security situation is rapidly deteriorating and he used a metaphor familiar to Game of Thrones fans to describe the situation, stating that “I see the strategic outlook in the region as autumn, and autumn is deepening.”[xii]

Sentiments that were reiterated by the nation’s Chief of Army, Lieutenant General Susan Coyles who said that the Australian army was not yet ready to fight a large, modern war. She stated “If you think that everything you have in your kit bag is going to work at the point and time of need tomorrow – we’re delusional.”[xiii] Coyles was also clear that the army is working hard to build the capabilities it needs for large-scale conflict.

Senior officers do not speak without careful consideration. The fact that both the Chief of Army and Navy are making statements at the same time about the need to deter conflict is noteworthy because it demonstrates how seriously Australia takes the threat of war.

It also indicates that Australia’s military leadership is focused on a peer conflict far to the north; in places like Taiwan, Philippines and the South and East China Seas. Areas of operation that will require a range of new technologies and larger sea, air and land forces than currently exist. Both leaders provided a reminder that Australia’s commitment to increasing defence spending is based on the threat of potential conflict in the region.

Australia and New Zealand test fire Harpoon missiles

Australia and New Zealand are committed allies and last week demonstrated their inter-operability when a RNZAF P-8 Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft test fired Australian AGM-84 Harpoon missiles.[xiv]The missiles were fired during a joint exercise near Guam called Exercise Valiant Shield. The exercise involved aircraft, ships and submarines from New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Japan and the United States.

The RNZAF P-8 Poseidon exercised locating, identifying and attacking a target. It also practiced working within a multi-national, inter-operable team, receiving and passing information across multiple assets and working within a joint command structure. For example, the mission included coordination of the New Zealand attack with two missile armed US P-8 Poseidon’s that also attacked the target. A set of important skills for New Zealand forces working within an Australian or US-led task force.

This is the first time that a New Zealand aircraft has fired AGM-84 Harpoon missiles and it demonstrates the increasingly close inter-operability that is developing between the US, Australia and New Zealand.

Melanesian Update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

American pilot killed in West Papua / Irian Jaya

The western half of the large Melanesian island, Papua, is a province of Indonesia and is officially titled Irian Jaya. However, the territory is contested by an indigenous, separatist movement that calls the area West Papua and wants it to be independence from Indonesia. This conflict means that a little reported but bloody war has raged in the territory for decades and is getting worse. Radio NZ reports that “Indonesia has been increasing its troop deployments to Papua region to the extent that it has at least six times more military per capita in Papua than any other region in Indonesia.”[xv]

Last week, an American pilot working in the region was killed and his plane destroyed by West Papua National Liberation Army fighters in the central highlands. The separatists claim that the pilot and his plane were used by the Indonesian military. [xvi]

Although, violence is common in the highlands of West Papua / Irian Jaya it is unusual for a foreigner to be killed. Historically, foreigners captured by separatists are held for ransom and their release negotiated. This murder may indicate a hardening of attitudes and so could be an indicator of the potential for more violence in West Papua / Irian Jaya.

Further, this killing is likely to lead to Indonesian military operations in the area to capture the perpetrators. Radio NZ reported that locals are already fleeing the area to avoid the Indonesian army. Therefore, it is worth watching the situation in West Papua / Irian Jaya because this incident may trigger more violence.

Australia and Vanuatu sign Nakamal Agreement

It has taken a long time but Australia and Vanuatu signed the Nakamal Agreement.[xvii] The agreement was signed in Canberra on 29 June 2026 and it is an economic and security deal between the two nations. The agreement states that Australia is Vanuatu’s primary policing partner and that the nation will look to Australia, New Zealand and France for emergency relief.

A key element of the agreement is that it stops other countries building military bases in Vanuatu. A provision specifically included by Australia to block China from acquiring a base in Vanuatu. Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanse telling reporters that “What this does do is to provide certainty for Australia that there will be no foreign military base.”

The agreement was supposed to be signed in September 2025 but the Vanuatu government raised concerns about the deal, and since then Australia has been working hard to get a deal signed. The Nakamal Agreement is a victory for Australia in its diplomatic campaign to block Chinese influence in Melanesia. It is notable that it follows the recent change of government in Solomon Islands.

The collapse of Jeremiah Manele’s coalition in the Solomon Islands and appointment of a new Prime Minister, Matthew Wale was good news for Australia. Wale’s new government is more positively inclined towards Australia and is keen to ‘reset’ the relationship including developing a new partnership agreement. Australia’s success in both countries is an indication that their diplomacy is working

 

 

 

Ben Morgan is TDBs Military Blogger. a defence and security analyst specialising in modern warfare, military adaptation, and operational-level conflict analysis. He posts at Substack. If you like this content and want to support it you can ‘Buy me a Coffee’ here – buymeacoffee.com/benmorgan