National/NZF/ACT Government vs Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government

There are two main possibilities this election.

A National/NZF/ACT Government or a Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government.

Sure, there could be National/TOP/NZF/ACT Government but TOP would get nothing from National, NZF and ACT and I think it is highly unlikely that Greens + Labour will = 51%

If TOP get over the threshold they pose a bigger threat to TPM aspirations than anyone else which is why the Kakariki Alliance between Greens and TPM is crucial to protect Māori interests as part of a united front negotiating team.

If TOP doesn’t get over the threshold, the 3rd possibility is Labour/Green/TPM, but the most likely outcomes are National/NZF/ACT Government or Labour/Green/TPM/TOP.

So.

What would a National/NZF/ACT Government look like and what would a Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government look like.

National/NZF/ACT Government

If National, NZF and ACT are returned to power it will be with a smashed and depleted National with a much smaller ACT Party and an enormous cavalcade of political freaks from NZFirst.

Immediately, NZF would demand Winston was PM for the first 18 months, much to the horror of the Left. Because NZF would have cannibalised so much National Party vote, National won’t have much of a choice especially as a result like that would generate a leadership challenge inside National, which Winston would want to influence.

The policy agenda would be far more extreme than we have seen over the last 3 years with Winston in charge and that would provoke a level of protest from an embittered Left that would be riot level.

Nothing would get progressed because the level of dissent against mining, fishing, ripping up the Treaty and exploitative Industry would be beyond anything I think we’ve witnessed since the Springbok Tour. NZF would see their success as proof positive culture war poison wins and progress policy that the vast majority reject.

National would be too weak to stop them and ACT would see policy wins to destroy large parts of the State that don’t interest Winston.

A re-elected National/ACT/NZF Government would cement into place their 19th Century White settler privilege to the eternal detriment of NZ.

Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government  

As a Left Wing mercenary, my heart will skip if we can get a Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori majority, and if TOP can be added with that mix, it would be all my Christmases come at once.

Adding in TOP (if they cross 5%) would allow Chippy to have wider options on policy than being held hostage by a more uncompromising Te Pāti Māori (whose internal frictions caused so much fear in the wider electorate thanks to the Kapa-Kingi).

Labour will hold the centre and won’t spook the horses. I don’t look to Chippy for the socialist utopia, I look to him to be a decent human being who wouldn’t have borrowed for tax cuts we couldn’t afford and  wouldn’t have handed hundreds of millions in corporate welfare.

If the Greens tag team with Te Pāti Māori in the negotiating process to present a united front in negotiations, that is where we will see the real progressive policy and the heavy lifting will have to be done by the Greens (who easily have some of the best policy) and Te Pāti Māori who have some of the most socialist tax policy.

TOP could bring disruptive ideas to the mix.

A Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori, TOP Government could produce a legislative agenda on par with the Savage Government, a rebuilding of our social egalitarianism and a focus on all the people, not just the interests of rich donors.

If you are not excited by the possibilities a Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori, TOP Government could actually produce if we win in November, you ain’t paying attention.

Because this is the moment, right?

For years the argument has been about what we can’t do — what markets won’t allow, what voters won’t accept, what coalition partners won’t tolerate.

But if these numbers hold, that excuse disappears.

And then we find out who actually has the courage to use power when they finally get it.