This Election it’s either 12months of Winston as PM vs 18months as PM vs Te Pati Māori vs TOP
I think there are four possible outcomes of the MMP cube this election.
12months of Winston as PM
If the Government is National, ACT and NZF, Winston will negotiate 12months as Prime Minister because he will be threatening to go with Labour as his leverage because Winston is looking for legacy now and Prime Minister is his last box to tick.
18months of Winston as PM
If the Government is Labour, Greens and NZF it will be because NZF has leap frogged the Greens as the third largest party and will have forced the Greens to bend the knee. Winston’s popularity is due in part because he is hoovering up sub 5% threshold voters who are triggered by words like ‘globalist’, so NZF is not only finding uncounted voters, he’s bringing them directly to NZF. From this position of power he’ll demand Chippy’s head as an offering of submission and 18months as Prime Minister
Te Pati Māori to the MMP Overhang rescue
If the Government is Labour, Greens and Te Pati Māori it will be because the Overseas Specials surged to the Greens and the Māori Party gained more electorates than party vote and trigger an MMP overhang. This will be 51% and won’t be known until after the Specials are counted.
TOP to the 5% threshold rescue
If it’s a Labour, Greens and TOP Government it will be Labour with the largest Party Vote, the Greens in double digits and TOP crossing the 5% threshold from horrified Blue/Green National voters, second generation migrant Kiwis, Gen X without property and 1% from the Greens who are alienated by the social justice positions.
Interesting, but I hope that common-sense will prevail and it will be a landslide win for Labour BUT only if they have meaningful policies, discipline, patience and sufficient funding. It’s all there, just waiting to be gobbled up. This CoC is so bad it should have disbanded or fallen over by now – we live in hope. Hard to see how many can’t or won’t see the wood for the trees and are taken in with the never-ending BS from our biased media and the ‘sorted’. Personally I don’t want Winston anywhere near the mix, so Greens – sort your rubbish out and get out there – with climate issues it should be a shoo-in for you.