TVNZ Poll Shock: Winners, Losers + Predictions
Boom!
Roy Morgan predicted the Labour crash and TOP rise in their last under-reported poll so this TVNZ Poll predicting a change of Government has come as a surprise to some pundits.
Interestingly internal polling is showing Labour at 36 and National dipping lower into the 20s than the TVNZ Poll has them.
I think voters are polarised and this polarisation is driving other voters away from the main parties and I think many voters feel worse off now than when they were before.
There are of course Political winners and losers.
WINNERS
TOP – As TDB has been pointing out all year, the elasticity of MMP means extremism from NZF generates resistance elsewhere. For the children of urbane National voting city folk, the culture war redneckery of NZF and libertarian racism of ACT are an anathema and while they are too rich to vote Labour and too second generation migrant to vote Green, TOP is their new political vehicle of choice. If TOP cross 5%, they are the kingmakers, not Winston.
Greens – They have had a hard time in the polling because so many young people left NZ and the polling companies scrambled to replace them, but I think they have the weighting right now and the Greens are doing better than previously polling indicates. Their amazing tax policy won over middle class Auckland. I think they might jhav their best election ever this year.
LOSERS
National – Luxon is their kiss of death because he is so weak. Luxon is so weak that Simeon Brown is the one being brought in to play the angry dad routine. Seeing as Simeon looks 12 going on 13, him butching up seems farcical, but because the alternative is Luxon, they have little choice. I think there is a real chance they could get 27 on election night because Chippy will slay Luxon in the debates.
Labour – They keep slipping because they lack the confidence of their polices. Voters doing it hard want to see certainty in the faces of Labour. Willie Jackson and Kieran seems to be the only ones who can throw a punch right now. Have got to roll out some stellar policy.
ACT – Unfortunately for ACT, Kiwis like their bigotry base, they don’t want Diet Racism. ACT offer rednecks the fig leaf of Libertarianism but that’s too fancy for polarised boomers down rabbit holes, they want the kind of prejudice that is proud to be prejudiced so ACT will continue to lose market share as the mob polarised by social media hate algorithms demands neurmbuwg trials that not even David Seymour can host.
NZF – The problem with attracting highly polarised book burners is that their toxicity recoils far more than it attracts. NZF activists online are the most hateful New Zealanders in the political spectrum and their bile is so toxic it infects the NZF brand. This is their ceiling while driving middle voters away.
PREDICTIONS
Kākāriki Alliance – Newsroom picked up on the strategy today, if TPM tell their voters in the Māori Electorates to candidate vote TPM but give their party vote to the Greens, it recycles their wasted TPM party vote to the Greens keeping them above NZF as the 3rd larges party WHILE generating an MMP overhang. This would lead to a unified negotiating team of TPM/Green to negotiate with Labour which ion turn will force Labour to adopt far more progressive policy than they currently are.
Specials – The Greens could see a huge wave of specials from Australia.
Undecided – at 14% this is a huge chunk of the electorate who have not made up their mind meaning the debates will be more important this election than ever before.
El Niño – This will be peaking over NZ during the election.
Trump inflation – This will be peaking over NZ during the election.
OCR up as Economy flatlines – That inflation will force the hand of the OCR which will be another kick in the guts to house prices and mortgage payments.
National/ACT/NZF Government – If they win, Winston will demand PM for 123 months and National will be weaker than ever.
Labour/Green/TPM Government – If they win, Labour will be forced to adopt a lot more progressive policy.
Labour/Green/TPM/TOP Government – If they win, TOP will have a lot more influence on final policy decisions.
My poll has Labour on 36.6 …National 28.2…ACT 5.8… Greens 12.1 …N.Z First 10.2…Maori Party 5.2 and The Opportunity Party on 4.8..
This is taken from research during a 6 week long drive down through the North Island and around The South Island talking to a wide variety of people .
TOP is the Trojan Horse party, you have been warned.
The TOP leader could remember voting for TPM when she was at uni, but could not remember whether she’s voted for National, but could remember she’s never voted for Labour,funny that. And she talked about NZers mot being able to trust the two main parties but can we trust her when she won’t admit to voting for National in the past. The new National is a very different beast to Luxons party, the old school Nats had integrity and principles even if we did not agree with them.
Where is this assumption coming from that TOP would form a left leaning government? Have I missed them stating so? If anything I would say it’s 60/40 they would go in with a right leaning government. Happy to stand corrected!
Ohhhhhh I can’t wait! I’ve backed TOP in the last two elections and they hovered around 3% but just like the Warriors….this our year! It just feels different this time. Hopefully their UBI policy is the first cab off the rank
It works on the principle that if you tell a lie often enough it can become the truth .
I would say the Greens need to be very worried as if TOP go with Labour they would be the third fiddle again
Like your lie Trevor that this CoC is making things better, though no matter how often you say that to yourself, it is still a lie.