Why TOP could be the difference in this years election for the Left and Right
I think that TOP could be the difference this election.
With Labour and National incapable of regaining their ability to get anywhere over 40% now, the electorate keeps fragmenting.
There are many National Party Blue Greens who are as horrified by their Party’s betrayal of any respectful environmental policy as the Left are, but they are extremely turned off by the Greens extremism and vote National instead.
Those voters do so holding their nose because they know a vote for National is also a vote for ACT and NZF again, and that is just as distasteful to them.
TOP appeals to this Auckland Voter Gen X cosmopolitan electorate far more than Luxon does.
Likewise the Blue/Green voters inside the Greens themselves.
They also find the social justice focus deeply counter productive and I think would jump to TOP, ESPECIALLY as it gives a possible new way forward that doesn’t require Winston Peters, David Seymour or Chris Luxon.
I think TOP are 2% on their own, but they could pick up another 2% from Blue/Greens in National and they could pick up 1% from Blue/Greens inside the Greens.
TOP have a pathway to 5% this election and while the climb is steep, it certainly isn’t impossible, especially for a frustrated electorate demanding change from the pathological Right, but feel too challenged by a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.
A Labour/Green/TOP Government could be a unique political outcome.
They are less popular than TPM which means 5 percent is a long way off
Top wont win any Maori seats Trevor TPM will.
And TPM will also get at least 2% of the party vote maybe more if the judge hurries up and gets rid of the rot and I’m not talking about John T or the current leaders.
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ACT are only in existence because of a dirty deal. TOP are much more credible.
Ive thought for years that they have the potential to be NZ’s Teal alliance or a Lib Dem style party, unlike in Australia where the teals had to make a name for themselves, Top already has a name, it’s the party everyone wants in parliament but noone wants to risk a wasted vote on.
If they ever get into parliament, they would likely hit double digits at the next election and be perpetually the third largest party, they just have to actually get in parliament for people to see them as viable.
It’s insane they haven’t got a seat deal when they are routinely at 2% which would give them 3 seats and Labour and National could both work with them, so both major parties should sit out somewhere in Auckland Christchurch or Wellington and just get TOP in parliament, it would benefit both major parties.
They would absolutely steal some of the environmental wing and male wing of the greens, some liberal reformist votes off labour and some liberal blue green and female vote off national.
There’s no reason for either major party not to gift them a seat.
However, it’s been ten years and soon to be four elections of TOP talking about a UBI and they still haven’t countered how beneficiaries will fare under it.
In some elections they’ve said supplemental payments will still exist for beneficiaries which doesn’t make sense if a ubi is to replace msd, mostly they’ve ignored the question outright and shown hostility and arrogance at being asked how the most vulnerable people will fare under their fabled ubi.
The current leaders discussion on lowering tax rates for beneficiaries who can work still totally skirts around the question of how much more or less someone who can’t work physically or mentally will receive under a ubi
Until they address this seriously, I want them in parliament but could never vote for them, as I can’t vote for a party whose policies may make the poor and disabled worse off.
Top’s ubi and it’s supporters always come off as smug upper middle class liberals who don’t give a f*** about the poor and just don’t wanna deal with Winz if they ever loose their job.
If they fix the confusion around a ubi and retain their upper house and decentralization of power from Wellington policies, land value tax and yes, marijuana reform (because I want the tax revenue) id strongly consider voting top
I support Top and are a member.
I’m not smug nor upper class and do give a fuck about the poor as I know many of the party members do.
The UBI has been explained over and over.
It only works with their full tax reform policy and would take years to implement.
The party have said for many years the lower incomes and benefices would be better off.
A leap of faith may be required by the voting public to make our political environment change.
Its only going to get worse for benefices and the poor if our current two big parties don’t change the same old.
I don’t think this is a real possibility, but it’s nice to dream that TOP might force a UBI into existence.