Why TOP could be the difference in this years election for the Left and Right

I think that TOP could be the difference this election.

With Labour and National incapable of regaining their ability to get anywhere over 40% now, the electorate keeps fragmenting.

There are many National Party Blue Greens who are as horrified by their Party’s betrayal of any respectful environmental policy as the Left are, but they are extremely turned off by the Greens extremism and vote National instead.

Those voters do so holding their nose because they know a vote for National is also a vote for ACT and NZF again, and that is just as distasteful to them.

TOP appeals to this Auckland Voter Gen X cosmopolitan electorate far more than Luxon does.

Likewise the Blue/Green voters inside the Greens themselves.

They also find the social justice focus deeply counter productive and I think would jump to TOP, ESPECIALLY as it gives a possible new way forward that doesn’t require Winston Peters, David Seymour or Chris Luxon.

I think TOP are 2% on their own, but they could pick up another 2% from Blue/Greens in National and they could pick up 1% from Blue/Greens inside the Greens.

TOP have a pathway to 5% this election and while the climb is steep, it certainly isn’t impossible, especially for a frustrated electorate demanding change from the pathological Right, but feel too challenged by a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government.

A Labour/Green/TOP Government could be a unique political outcome.