The month has been characterised by two key trends, the first is Russia’s offensive activity in the north-east and the second is Ukraine’s air and maritime offensive in the south-west. Both sides frantically trying to develop offensive operations and ‘regain the initiative.’ It is a delicate balance, and although there is limited movement there is lots happening; Ukraine holding Russia’s offensive in check while developing their own operations near Crimea.
Ground fighting in the east
Russia’s plan to re-take the initiative is based on a wide-ranging series of ground attacks launched from Luhansk and Donetsk. The main vectors of attack are around Kupiansk, Kremina and Avdiivka and seem to be focussed on two objectives, advancing toward Kharkiv (a major city) and securing the borders of Belgorod Oblast. The offensive started in October as Ukraine’s 2023 offensive culminated. After absorbing Ukraine’s attacks, the Russian’s transitioned from the defensive phase of war to offensive operations. Soviet / Russian doctrine emphasises offensive action, and that any defensive operation’s objective is to set the conditions for a transfer to renewed offensive. In simple terms, to use the advantages of fighting from strong defensive positions to wear down and attrit the enemy so that they are weakened before you start attacking again. Russia’s activity in recent months is consistent with how we; and Ukrainian commanders would expect the campaign to develop.
Essentially, Ukraine’s key operational issue over recent months was to manage Russia’s transition from defence to offence. A Russian counter-attack was inevitable and Ukraine needed to retain sufficient combat power at the end of its offensive to absorb it, and prevent the attack from forcing them into an uncontrolled retreat. A withdrawal or a retreat is the hardest phase of war to manage because it is easy for the side moving back to lose control, or to panic creating opportunities for the attacker.
Poor Russian training meets superior Ukrainian combined arms tactics
The fact that Russia has not been able to take Avdiivka, or create breakthroughs elsewhere despite throwing enormous resources at these operations demonstrates that when Ukraine’s offensive stopped, its ground forces were far from exhausted. Now, Ukraine is using a variety of defensive tactics that are simple but effective.
First, Ukraine is laying minefields that canalize advancing Russian armoured columns into pre-planned killing areas. This tactic is simple and every army use it. However, in Ukraine it is brutally effective against the Russians because they have a low level of training. Russian armour advances in columns or lines that are easy to control but also easy to target. Essentially, Russian tank and armoured vehicle crew lack the training to fight in dispersed swarms and must follow the vehicle in front to navigate through complex terrain; or channels in a minefield. This predictability makes them vulnerable to pre-planned attacks. Sometimes the defenders use lethal guided anti-tank missiles. At other times precision guided artillery shells accurate enough to hit individual tanks or even concentrated artillery fire. Lots of unguided shells fired into a small area, a tactic the Soviet’s called a ‘fire sack,’ will destroy armoured vehilces.
Often the defenders integrate these attacks with anti-drone electronic warfare, using powerful transmitters to jam the radio controls on Russian drones allowing Ukrainian armour or drones to engage without worrying about enemy drones. Ukrainian tanks zipping out of their ‘hides’ (secure hidden areas) to engage any Russian vehicles not destroyed by artillery or drones. The combination of these techniques and tactics demonstrates the new face of combined arms combat. Drones, electronic warfare, precision-strike weapons, conventional artillery and armour all working together in an integrated manner. Russian soldier’s poor training increases the effectiveness of this way of fighting, so the attackers are suffering significant attrition.
Further evidence of the poor performance of Russia’s troops on the frontline is provided by their inability to advance even with vastly more artillery ammunition. Even though Ukraine is forced to conserve every round, Russia has not been able to turn this significant advantage into progress on the ground. Russia’s larger numbers of shells mean that Ukraine’s ability to conduct counter-battery fire (targeting enemy artillery) is very limited, allowing Russia freedom to choose how its artillery is used. Instead of using it innovatively to counter Ukraine’s defensive tactics Russia continues to use massive bombardments of towns and villages. An easy but not very effective tactic.
Russian losses are significant
Recent footage of American supplied M2 Bradley armoured fighting vehicles destroying a Russian T90 tank, provided a brief insight into the superior training of Ukraine’s soldiers. The T90 is Russia’s most modern main battle tank, heavily armoured and carrying a 125mm gun. The M2 Bradley entered service in 1981, it is armed with a 25mm cannon. The film shows Ukrainian Bradleys out manoeuvre, panic and destroy one of Russia’s most modern tanks; an unexpected outcome. This and the other videos circulating on social media are only indicators of the different levels of competence, but when combined with Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) about Russia’s huge losses they help confirm a trend. That ‘on the ground,’ when the forces meet; Russia is losing tactical battles. Its force remaining functional operationally only because the nation is operating on a war footing, recruiting every young man possible while roughly 40% of GDP is estimated to be used building, repairing or refurbishing military equipment.
Forbes magazine writing on 30 January 2024 stated that “In their own winter offensive, the Russians are losing nearly three times as much heavy equipment as the Ukrainians are losing—and likely at least three times as many people. And so far, the Russians are, in exchange for their heavy—but historically typical—losses, gaining less ground than the Ukrainians gained at lower cost last summer.” An example from OSINT collated by Oryx and widely reported, confirms that on 20 January 2024, Russia lost 21 tanks and 38 other armoured vehicles, enormous losses in one day when one considers the expense of modern tanks. For instance, the German Bundeswehr can currently muster about 300 Leopards and the UK Army about 150 Challender 2s. In late-January 2024 Oryx estimated Russia has lost 1769 tanks.
Ukraine’s emerging campaign strategy
While Russia pushes on the ground in the north-east, Ukraine’s focus appears to be the south-west, specifically the area around Kherson and Crimea. In this column, two weeks ago we discussed Ukraine’s operations targeting Crimea’s air defences and its offensive use of Patriot missile systems to snipe key Russian aircraft, including key airborne early warning and command aircraft. (See ‘Russian air offensive failing, NATO aid increasing and US aid impasse edging closer to resolution’)
This area appears to remain a focus for Ukraine and during the night of 31 January 2024, a Russian Tarnatul Class corvette Ivanonets was sunk. Ukraine states that the ship was sunk by submarine drones and the attack is notable because the ship was in a sheltered and well-defended location.
This attack was also coordinated with a large air operation using 20 air launched missiles to attack Crimean targets, including Belbek Air Base near Sevastopol. As usual the effectiveness of the attack is disputed, Russia claiming 17 of the missiles were shot down and Ukraine claiming greater success. The key observation from this operation is not whether the attack was spectacularly successful but rather that Ukraine is able to mount an attack of this size and scale. Ukraine being able to successfully launch 20 missiles from aeroplanes, over the Black Sea, against targets in Crimea indicates that Russian air defence in the area is compromised. In the articles ‘Lessons from 2023 and what to expect in 2024’ and ‘Russian air offensive failing, NATO aid increasing and US aid impasse edging closer to resolution’ we assessed that Ukraine is specifically targeting Russian air defence networks in and around Crimea. This operation supports this assessment and indicates that Ukraine is successfully compromising Crimea’s defences. Crimea is obviously a strategic target. Last year’s offensive failed to isolate it by severing its land connection with Russia and now it appears that Ukraine is stripping away the area’s air defence. Ukraine’s investment in these operations raises the question – What next?
Sinking Ivanovets, and other Black Sea Fleet warships may be a clue. Along with sinking Russian amphibious warfare ships that carry supplies to their troops in occupied areas, Ukraine is also targeting warships with an anti-ship capability and that provide intelligence. Since May last year, two missile armed corvettes, a patrol boat, an attack submarine and a signals intelligence ship have been sunk. All vessels that contribute to Crimea’s air defence network and that could be used to attack vessels involved in amphibious landings on the peninsula. Combined with what we know about Ukraine’s previous activity; attacking radar stations, airbases and air defence missiles sites it is safe to bet that Ukraine believes that Crimea provides an opportunity to break the deadlock in the land campaign.
Additionally, Ukrainian forces retain a foothold on the east side of the Dnipro River, Ukrainian sources reporting the bridgehead has expanded but the Institute for the Study of War’s 1 February 2024 update reporting simply that “Positional fighting continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky, on February 1.” A foothold that Ukraine may be seeking to exploit in the future perhaps with an amphibious operation in south-east Kherson or on Crimea itself. Another less aggressive option could be degrading Russian air defence and aviation capabilities that are based in Crimea but cover southern Kherson and the Dnipro River. Setting the conditions for a larger crossing of the river.
Summary
Russia’s offensives in the north-east are not making progress. Even after mobilising its defence industry and with much greater amounts of artillery ammunition Russia’s progress is either non-existent or painfully slow. Each step forwards costing vast amounts of manpower and material. Ukraine, on the other hand is currently holding the line and inflicting attrition of Russia. Concurrently, it continues to develop operations in the south-east using air and sea power to weaken Russia’s air defence networks and its hold on air and sea power near Crimea and Kherson.
Russia desperately needs to make progress because the campaign is evolving quickly now Europe realises that it cannot rely on the US. Last week, the European Union committed to 50 billion euros of aid to keep Ukraine fighting. Last month, it committed 100 million euros to mobilising Europe’s defence industry to support Ukraine. The US may be distracted, but Europe is standing firm. Soon F-16 fighter jets will be active in the skies over Ukraine and European artillery ammunition will start arriving in large quantities. By mid-2024, Ukraine will be in much stronger position, and Russia knows this, so in coming months will be throwing everything it can at achieving break-through in the north-east. Ukraine is holding on, and is clearly developing the conditions for future operations in Kherson or Crimea.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
A pretty good summary, the most crucial part of which is probably Europe beginning to stand up to meet the regional threat. Putin’s dirty bomb, Trump, is set to create havoc during the US elections, which will probably see unprecedented levels of violence. The US is becoming overstretched as Israeli atrocities trigger Palestinian sympathizers. Putin is predicted to try to instigate coups across Europe, but excepting Orban, he has little support, and Orban is dicing with sanctions already. Joint naval adventures in the vicinity of Alaska are unlikely to achieve anything – any actual attack will only endorse the sitting president and further open the poll gap between him and the traitor. Interesting times.
A really good time for NZ to get into drone and anti-drone tech https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/26/australia-drone-systems-ukraine/#:~:text=Australia%20is%20sending%20counter%2Ddrone,configuration%20have%20not%20been%20disclosed. but of course we have no entrepreneurs – only fucking lazy, useless, non-productive property speculators.
Thanks again for all your hard work Ben very appreciated.
If the west/NATO could win their war by just firing money at the Russians they’d win hands down …. But “the EU will only end up scrounging up 524k total shells of the promised 1M for Ukraine. If you recall, last time they were “on track” for 600k+, but the total number keeps dwindling:”.
” Ukraine faces a shortage of infantry” ,,,, the POW ratio between Ukraine and Russia is 10:1 in Russia’s favor. ”
“based on official statements from both sides, as well as tracking the actual facilities Ukraine uses to house POWs. The fact is, Ukraine only has a few hundred Russians while Russia has had anywhere between 10,000-15,000 Ukrainian POWs at various points, fluctuating with exchanges.
Given the fact that each category of casualty should scale relatively comparatively, this means we can expect a similar disproportionality to exist between Russian-Ukrainian KIA figures.”
“The KIA doesn’t have to be exactly 10:1 like the POW ratio owing to, as he states, the disproportionately lower morale of the AFU. However it could still be much closer to the 10:1 than the 3:1 he posits. Either way, we know it means for a fact that Ukraine’s KIA figures are far higher than that of Russia’s” ,,,,
Israel and Ukraine may not be two legs of the same dog ,,,,,, but they are certainly two dogs with the same master.
And as with dogs it is ALWAYS the owner that causes the problems ….
NATO needs to be put down.
Some people should be
The supporters of Russian imperialist war in Ukraine, are just as disgusting as the supporters of American imperialist war in the Middle East.
Case in point:
“NATO needs to be put down.
Some people should be” B Awakesky
Who are the people you think should be put down you blood thirsty imperialist prick,
You throw the term imperialist around like it was confetti. In your hands, the term is meaningless.
NATO is merely a tool of the USA. All those that weld this tool – are the problem.
Ukraine is a tool of the USA. Israel is a tool of the USA. Two bad dogs made this way by their owner. Th owner is the biggest problem here.
Victoria Nuland for starters ,,,, Hitler when he was a baby ,,,, Kissenger ,,, the Bush’s and the Clintons, Netenyahu etc etc etc
Think of how many people would have lived if that bunch of mass murders and engineers of wars had been put down.
Mass murderers should be put down imo ,,, and people who are mean to dogs 😉
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Pat o Dea seems perfectly fine with the people in Western Ukraine being treated (after the usa backed coup) like Israel treats Palestinians.
Actually when it comes to Ukraine Pat lies and pumps out propaganda JUST LIKE Israels…..He checks all the boxes– Aggressive lying and rewriting of history,, Atrocity propaganda treated as proof and justification,,, ‘you suppot the terrorist/hamas’ levels of abuse directed at reasonable people who most often want an end to the fighting and killing ,,, which means taking both sides views and points into account…. Pat like Israel would rather have reporters sacked than present both sides of a conflict — So you want to be fired | The West Report https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYmM1Dh8-eY
For instance Zelensky identifies WITH Israel ,,, passed discriminatory laws just like Israel…. all this and much much more is documented and proven in this Electronic Intifada educational vid/podcast*,, Whitewashing Ukraine’s Nazis, in conversation with Ali Abunimah https://youtu.be/sMd0p24995s
The Electronic Intifada have been among the best reporters in literally proving that Israel rapes the truth,,,, with their fact based examples/reporting refuting lie after lie after lie from the Israeli/western propaganda organizations/machine ,,, ie Fallout from fraudulent NYT article alleging mass rapes by Hamas, with Ali Abunimah https://youtu.be/wJcZ4YBUZpY
Now I don’t particularly care why Pat behaves like a hard core Zionist defending Israel when it comes to the Western/NATO client state and puppet Govt that is Ukraine….
… All I know is I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could spit him ,,, as he shares quite a few of the worst traits of zionists.
Pats a Slyonist ,,, who Changes,,, when he puts on his gaby hat for Ukraine ,,, or more accurately NATO and their violent racist proxies in Ukraine.
I guess I could add that AZOV need to be put down too… Good job that’s being done.
Perhaps Israel could offer them sanctuary.,,,, after all they do have a good relationship. https://i0.wp.com/thegrayzone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/ukraine-nazis-israel-weapons-azov-battalion.jpg?w=1920&ssl=1
eh Pat
Exactly right. Stopping Nato turning Ukraine into a racist fanatical ultra-nationalist investment bubble military outpost just like Israel – like the CIA had already tried and failed with Checnya and ISIS – is why Russia felt forced to preemptive action.
It blows me away that someone who can realize that a zionist regime bombing bakeries to help starve kids in Palestine is bad, will support the zionist Zelensky regime doing exactly the same thing against the people of liberated Lisichansk.
Yes, Pat is a puzzle…
No puzzle. I oppose all imperialists and all imperialist invasions and wars.
Ignorant fools who don’t understand the economic drivers of capitalist expansion and imperialism often fall into the trap of backing one imperialist bloc against another.
There is ample proof that the Zionists bomb bakeries and and even aid trucks in an effort to deliberately starve to death the Palestinians they can’t kill with bombs.
https://www.palestinechronicle.com/we-cannot-deliver-aid-under-fire-israel-bombs-unrwa-relief-truck/
But where is the evidence of the “Zelensky regime doing exactly the same thing”?
It doesn’t exist. It is just vile pro-war propaganda pushed by lying propagandists of an avaricious expansionist neo-imperialist power.
The Putin regime when pressed to front up to the World Court and present their so called evidence to the world of these alleged atrocities, you think that they would be falling over themselves to show the world that their brutal full scale invasion of Ukraine was justified. But they couldn’t do it. The Kremlin hired a huge team of lawyers and dispatched them to the World Court. The Kremlin’s lawyers argued for more than eight hours in court, that the Russian Federation should not (read could not) provide any of the evidence they claimed they had against Ukraine of committing atrocities in the Donbas.
Why?
Because this alleged ‘evidence’ just doesn’t exist.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/10/08/guest-blog-patrick-odea-ukraine-takes-itself-to-court/
So stop being a pimp for Russian imperialism.
Nato isn’t a person. It’s a thug gang of parade ground bullies, the corrupt remnants of the dying US empire, with the WEF globalists desperate to stitch this frankenstein back together.
It is so sad what is happening to the Ukrainian people – because of the choices of their puppet government. How easy it is to control-hoodwink an entire country – this is scary. Thankfully, 10-20% of them skipped the country because, well, many of them didn’t buy what their government was selling.
I have to agree but we should remember around 70% of Ukraine voted for the then ‘peace deal’ version of Zelensky.
We can be disappointed or surprised at the ulterior agenda and broken promises of our elected Govts here in AoNZ ,,, and the dirty politics/media which seeks to cloak their actions …
… But on a scale of 1 to 10 for the worst repercussions to a country for politicians broken promises ,,, Zelensky must score a 9.9 for what he and his western backers unleashed upon Ukraine.
The people of Ukraine certainly did not vote for what they’ve ended up with ,,, it was the AZOV types and Usa/NATO war hawks who got what they wished for….
The saying be careful what you wish for is 100 times more more true when it’s dangerous psychopathic fools doing the wishing.
Same goes for Netenyahu and all the crazies in Israel/Usa/NATO ,,, they wish for a big war to ‘sort things out’ in the middle east.
Slava Israel
The way you pro-war trolls talk, anyone would think that it was Ukraine that invaded Russia.
‘the way pro-terrorist trolls talk you’d think it was Israel that attacked Gaza on Oct 7’ …. say Zionists.
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I believe I’ve seen the stat that only 3% of Israeli violence and murders committed against Palestinians in the west bank result in trials and convictions ….
The 2014 far-right massacre in Odessa saw roughly 50 people bludgeoned to death or burned alive by Ukrainian nationalists and neo-Nazis ,,,, and resulted in ZERO convictions….. ” Two days later, Right Sector, a heavily armed neo-fascist organisation that played a key role in overthrowing Yanukovych, published on its website a statement celebrating the killing of anti-Maidan activists in Odessa as “yet another bright page in our fatherland’s history.” https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/01/19/odes-j16.html
In both cases the reason for the lack of justice comes from the same sick place,,, and is indicative of a state that needs international pressure to reform ,,,, rather than support and flooding with weapons.
But but but HAMAS
but but but RUSSIANS
Slava Israel ,,, Slava Ukraine … and war is good for for some business (capitalism) …. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/5/global-arms-sales-rise-for-7th-year-despite-supply-chain-issues
If you believe the WSWS, you will believe anything! Their evidence is based on conspiracy theories.
That statement coming from Ovod is like a Eunuch saying someone else has ‘got no balls’ …
…. good for a laugh at how deluded he is about himself 🙂
“It is so sad what is happening to the Ukrainian people” AO
You really are a sick bastard, feigning sympathy for the Ukrainian people suffering and dying under a rain of Russian bombs and missiles, a rain of death that you support.
You clearly have no intelligent concept of what it means to be anti-war.
It doesn’t mean – “there’s the bad guy, get him!” It certainly doesn’t mean scoffing at other nations’ expressed concerns and interests. It means asking what reasonable action prevents moving towards war/ or stops the killing. A freaking neutrality treaty with Russia was all Ukraine needed. If your neighbour, backed by Nato rejects that, who is taking the situation towards war?
Now we have the consequences from true imperialist madness of the US “Rules and Orders”. How do we save lives? Accept that you missed an offramp, and take the net best peace offering. It is not going to get better for the Ukrainian state, the regime, or their backers – only worse. But the US only ever has one tool in the kit, and the Ukraining people suffer the consequences of their insanity.
Paul makes shit up.
” A freaking neutrality treaty with Russia was all Ukraine needed.” Paul
A neutrality treaty is indeed what Ukraine needed, and a neutrality treaty is what Ukraine offered the Russian people.
Following the February 2022 Russian invasion of his country, President Zelensky the democratically elected leader of Ukraine, offered Russia a land for peace deal to Russia, and a promise to hold a referendum of the Ukrainian people to canvas their opinion on neutrality, specifically on rejecting any alliance with NATO.
The negotiations were held in March 2022 in Turkey. Zelensky offered the Russians a ceasefire during the talks. The Russians rejected Zelensky’s offer of a ceasefire during the talks, and instead aggressively pressed ahead with their invasion including launching missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital.
Was Russia’s rejection of any ceasefire argreement, the actions of a regime that wanted peace with Ukraine?
Or, the actions of an arrogant aggressor?
As well as making a mockery of the talks by pressing ahead with their brutal invasion, the Russian negotiators kept making the bizarre demand that Ukraine must ‘Denazify’, before they would agree to stop the fighting.
In essence, the Russian demand for the ‘Denazification of Ukraine’ is no less than the Russian imperialist’s code word for regime change in Ukraine.
i.e. We will keep bombing cities and infrastructure and killing civilians in Ukraine until Ukraine surrenders.
Little different to Israel’s demand of regime change in Gaza. i.e. ‘We will keep bombing infrastructure and killing civilians in Gaza until Hamas surrenders.’
On the other side of the negotiating table Ukraine offered to stop fighting if Russia agreed to return to the areas of Eastern Ukraine occupied by Russian proxy forces, prior to the February 24, full scale Russian invasion.
The Russian negotiators rejected Ukraine’s generous land for peace offer outright.
In the face of Russia’s intransigence and determination to continue with the war, President Zelensky, speaking in his mother tongue, of Russian, presented the Ukrainian peace offer in a video on the social media, channel Telegram. Zelensky directly addressed the Russian people laying out Ukraine’s offer of neutrality in exchange for peace. The Putin regime made watching or sharing the video of President Zelensky’s neutrality offer a punishable criminal offence.
Does this sound like the actions of regime that wants peace?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/ukraine-zelenskiy-interview-russian-media-make-difference-in-war
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/zelenskiy-hails-upcoming-ukraine-russia-peace-talks-amid-fallout-from-biden-comments-on-putin
Zelenskiy says Ukraine willing to discuss neutrality at Russia talks
This article is more than 1 year old
Talks set to start in Turkey as Ukraine president seeks peace ‘without delay’
It was Ukraine that wanted to sign a neutrality treaty with Russia.
It was Russia that rejected the treaty.
So I don’t know what ‘neutrality treaty’ Paul is referring to. Except one he made up in his head.
You might be right Pat, perhaps I am a “sick bastard”…could possibly explain why I’m silenced to high heaven around these parts. My concern, for my fellow human being, because of what I believe to be the failings or foibles of government actions (in this instance, preferring conflict over diplomacy) always, always troubles me.
But yeah, what I find troublesome others find sickly and or silence worthy. No wonder we live in world where genocide is allowed to take place today!
Sad Ben, pretty much everything is the opposite of your article.
What a load of codswallop, I suggest you jump on YouTube & get the REAL STORY of what’s going on in Ukraine from actual Military experts like Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson, Gen Douglas Macgregor, Col Lawrence Wilkerson & Alt Media voices of Judge Napolitano, Tucker Carlson, Garland Nixon, George Galloway & many others who tell the truth & don’t spin lies? Ben your talking points are farcical & display a level of Military ignorance & magical thinking that defies belief, your analysis is nothing more than PROJECTION & nonsense, all piss & hot air! The Murderous US Empire & its beaten like a Dog NATO vassals are in panic mode over Ukraine, having lost the War they are now moving to a Insurgency Terrorism Stage just like in Syria when Assad with the support of Russia, won their conflict against the US Regime change Op then the US armed & funded the Kirds, SDF & ISIS to commit Terrorism out of sheer spite & malice over being defeated just to sow chaos & prevent Syria from rebuilding, the US are now illegally occupying Syria to steal their Oil but they are being bombed daily & will be driven out! Now the US having lost in Ukraine has resorted to the same tactics of spite & malice, committing acts of Terrorism against Russia using the disastrous Zelensky Regime that’s on Life support but these pointless PR stunts won’t stop Russia from prevailing? These Terror attacks are now ensuring that Russia is now going to take half of Ukraine, from Odessa to Kharkiv & create a huge buffer zone out of Western missile range & Ukraine will become a small rump State! But like many others who came to Russia’s doorstep like Napoleon, Hitler & now Biden, all these Tyrants had to learn the hard way, they have one thing in common, they all suffered a humiliating defeat because they had no Comprehension of Russian History & how Russia will never allow themselves to be militarily defeated! Here’s how Russia’s SMO is going Ben, I will put in down in steps to explain it to you?
1. Ukraine has lost 500k Dead, Triple that are permanently injured, they are dragging pensioners & teenagers off the Streets & sending them to the front, is that a sign of winning Ben? Russia has casualties, 50k, that’s 1 Russian to 10 Ukrainians death ratio!
2. The West & Ukraine do not have the Manufacturing & Industrial Capacity to fight a indefinite War & can’t produce the amount of artillery shells, tanks, aircraft & missiles to complete with Russia, the West are running out & no amount of fake, printed money can produce manufacturing capacity to catch up to Russia! That alone tells you the West & Ukraine can’t win!
3. Russia hasn’t even mobilised the 1.2 million man Army that’s waiting to engage the Ukrainians! That’s coming in the Spring time to finish off the Zelensky Regime once & for all Time!
4. I don’t know who’s giving you your Information but Avidika has fallen, in fact the Ukrainians are retreating all over the front lines & are being annihilated, it’s called attritional Warfare Ben, taken straight out of General Clausewitz’s manual of Russian Military strategy? I suggest you read it & perhaps you’ll get some understanding of what the Russian tactics are in Ukraine Ben!
5. The so called superiority of Western weapons like the Bradley Tanks, it’s laughable, they are crap in combat, designed for desert service not winter conditions & that goes for the inferior german Leopard Tanks, they are all burning, along with the German & the failure of the super expensive Patriot missile, Storm shadows & other overpriced garbage that Russia’s drones have decimated!
6. Ukraine has no Airforce Ben, no Air Defence leaving Russia to bomb at will?
Have I left anything out Ben……?
Do you actually believe all this AF62?
Your dependence on hyperbolic exaggeration renders your points hardly credible.
The Bradley is not a tank, it is an IFV.
And the Patriots and Storm Shadows have been very successful. Ask Admiral Sokolov!
What’s more the blocking of the anti war candidate Boris Nadezhdin, whose name means hope, shows how oppressive Russia has become.
What a load of codswallop, I suggest you jump on YouTube & get the REAL STORY of what’s going on in Ukraine from actual Military experts like Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson, Gen Douglas Macgregor, Col Lawrence Wilkerson & Alt Media voices of Judge Napolitano, Tucker Carlson, Garland Nixon, George Galloway & many others who tell the truth & don’t spin lies? Ben your talking points are farcical & display a level of Military ignorance & magical thinking that defies belief, your analysis is nothing more than PROJECTION & nonsense, all piss & hot air! The Murderous US Empire & its beaten like a Dog NATO vassals are in panic mode over Ukraine, having lost the War they are now moving to a Insurgency Terrorism Stage just like in Syria when Assad with the support of Russia, won their conflict against the US Regime change Op then the US armed & funded the Kirds, SDF & ISIS to commit Terrorism out of sheer spite & malice over being defeated just to sow chaos & prevent Syria from rebuilding, the US are now illegally occupying Syria to steal their Oil but they are being bombed daily & will be driven out! Now the US having lost in Ukraine has resorted to the same tactics of spite & malice, committing acts of Terrorism against Russia using the disastrous Zelensky Regime that’s on Life support but these pointless PR stunts won’t stop Russia from prevailing? These Terror attacks are now ensuring that Russia is now going to take half of Ukraine, from Odessa to Kharkiv & create a huge buffer zone out of Western missile range & Ukraine will become a small rump State! But like many others who came to Russia’s doorstep like Napoleon, Hitler & now Biden, all these Tyrants had to learn the hard way, they have one thing in common, they all suffered a humiliating defeat because they had no Comprehension of Russian History & how Russia will never allow themselves to be militarily defeated! Here’s how Russia’s SMO is going Ben, I will put in down in steps to explain it to you?
1. Ukraine has lost 500k Dead, Triple that are permanently injured, they are dragging pensioners & teenagers off the Streets & sending them to the front, is that a sign of winning Ben? Russia has casualties, 50k, that’s 1 Russian to 10 Ukrainians death ratio!
2. The West & Ukraine do not have the Manufacturing & Industrial Capacity to fight a indefinite War & can’t produce the amount of artillery shells, tanks, aircraft & missiles to complete with Russia, the West are running out & no amount of fake, printed money can produce manufacturing capacity to catch up to Russia! That alone tells you the West & Ukraine can’t win!
3. Russia hasn’t even mobilised the 1.2 million man Army that’s waiting to engage the Ukrainians! That’s coming in the Spring time to finish off the Zelensky Regime once & for all Time!
4. I don’t know who’s giving you your Information but Avidika has fallen, in fact the Ukrainians are retreating all over the front lines & are being annihilated, it’s called attritional Warfare Ben, taken straight out of General Clausewitz’s manual of Russian Military strategy? I suggest you read it & perhaps you’ll get some understanding of what the Russian tactics are in Ukraine Ben!
5. The so called superiority of Western weapons like the Bradley Tanks, it’s laughable, they are crap in combat, designed for desert service not winter conditions & that goes for the inferior german Leopard Tanks, they are all burning, along with the German & the failure of the super expensive Patriot missile, Storm shadows & other overpriced garbage that Russia’s drones have decimated!
6. Ukraine has no Airforce Ben, no Air Defence leaving Russia to bomb at will?
Have I left anything out Ben……?
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/02/01/icj-rules-against-ukraine-v-russia-on-terrorism-mh17/
“The World Court ruled on Wednesday that Russia did not finance terrorism in its defense of separatists in Ukraine and the court refused to find Russia guilty of downing Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 as Ukraine had asked.
The case was brought to the ICJ by Ukraine in 2017, three years after the U.S.-backed coup in Kiev overthrew the democratically-elected President Viktor Yanukovych. ..”
What a slanted article with more opinion than fact. Read the ICJ’s actual proceedings not this propaganda piece.
“The World Court ruled on Wednesday that Russia did not finance terrorism in its defense of separatists in Ukraine and the court refused to find Russia guilty of downing Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 as Ukraine had asked.” Seer
They say that war is terrorism with a bigger budget.
On the greater charge of waging an illegal war the same World Court that seer cites above, ruled just last week, that Russia has a case to answer for making false accusations of genocide committed by Ukraine against ethnic Russians and Russian speakers.
On 24 February 2022, in a televised address to the world by the Russian President, this alleged genocide was given by Vladimir Putin as his reason for ordering a “special military operation” against Ukraine.
Ukrainian authorities declared that Putin’s accusations were totally false and mounted a vigorous defence against the Russian invasion, which has since descended into a protracted war.
As well as defending their country militarily, Ukraine lodged a legal action with the World Court accusing the Russian Federation of making false allegations of genocide in breach of the genocide convention to justify their war against Ukraine.
Last week in an interview with journalist Stephen Sackur, the Russian ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia, said that the Russian Federation will turn up at the World Court and present all its evidence of genocide committed by Ukraine.
Vassily Nebenzia. is just blustering.
Everyone knows the Russian Federation will not present this evidence, because it does not exist.
Instead, the Russian Federation will do a runner and boycott the hearing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IginzCbIMo
@9:23 minutes
“In a nutshell the Ukrainians have now put themselves as the defendant in the bar, uh, because now they have to justify that they were not using genocide in Donbas. And we have the full body of evidence…..”
@9:45 minutes
“….I believe in rule based International order I believe in the international order based on the UN Charter.”
None of the imperialist powers believe in the rule based order, only the force based order.
Covering the progress (or lack there of) of Russia’s imperialist folly in Ukraine, And then crossing the globe to give us updates of China’s imperialist arm wrestling with the US in the Pacific region, is only giving us half the story. A mil blogger worth his salt should be able to give us his insights into the war/wars in the Middle East. Especially now that New Zealand NZDF personal have been deployed in a weapons targeting role.
What for instance, are the chances of the our military strikes on Yemen being able to stop Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea?
What are the chances of Israel militarily defeating Hamas, without killing and destroying everyone and everything else in Gaza?
Come on Ben, surely you gotta have at least some thoughts and insights into these conflicts?
Why do you continue to flinch from sharing these thoughts and insights with us?
Cowardice?
Because he just repackages institute of war talking points, and he knows they won’t go down well in this market if he starts parroting them on the Middle East. Hence destroying his role as a clown – sorry, “influencer”, persuading the NZ public to see China and Russia as existential threats to side against rather than natural partners to deal with on our own path to independence and sovereignty.
ben can we have a firm date for when russia will collapse? no thought not
Capitalist collapse is inevitable and baked in for every country with a capitalist economy.
Sooner than you think gargarin.
Coming out from their room, the dynamic duo (Pat and Ovod) return to the comments section.
Marx wrote that about capitalism collapsing – how long ago?
Marx wrote that about capitalism collapsing – how long ago? seer
Marx’s ‘Capital’ was published in 1885
Engels ‘The Condition of the Working Class in England’ was published in Leipzig in 1845
With the invention of the steam loom and factory production, the age of small producers was over. The crofters were violently cleared off the land to to make way for sheep to provide the fibre for the new steam powered factories. And the landless crofters were forced to work in them. In its infancy, capitalism was oppressive, brutish and violent. The conditions of the working people in England press ganged into the factories by poverty was documented at the time by Marx’s close friend and collaborator Frederick Engels. The conditions that Engels encountered were nothing short of horrific. And these horrific conditions were being experienced in the same towns and cities where the factory owners were living lives of unparalled were When Marx was writing, rebellions against the factory owners were breaking out everywhere. Marx couldn’t envisage how such a system could last.
But last it did. The answer to avoiding capitalist collapse, turned out to be exporting the oppression and violence of capitalism to the colonies. The super profits from imperialism bought off the population at home, public education, social medicine, the welfare state, were all products of imperialism, paid for by the oppression and exploitation of the people in the colonies.
Imperialism is the export of capitalist exploitation. Imperialism is capitalist exploitation writ large on the international stage. Not just people exploiting other people but nations exploiting other nations.
It is significant that Engels work on the conditions of the working class in England was first published in Germany, where the industrial revolution was just beginning. Late starters to capitalism like Germany, italy and Japan experiencing the same social upheaval as early starter capitalist economies Trying to avoid capitalist collapse Germany found all the colonies had already been taken, The world had already been carved up between England France and the US with some smaller players like Holland and Belgium. And so began a titanic struggle between the emerging empires of Japan Germany and Italy against the established capitalist powers of Britain France and the US, which culminated in two major paroxysms of imperialist global violence, the two world wars.
You ask when will Russia collapse. Russia will collapse when it fails to colonise Ukraine.
Pat, you’re showing that twisty trait again. I didn’t ask when Russia would collapse. I wrote “Marx wrote that about capitalism collapsing – how long ago?”
Pat the Slyonist – thank you B Awakesky!
Pat, try considering something Marx nor any classical economists understood. The key to industrial production whether capitalist or Socialist is energy. When the energy cost of energy is low and energy supplies are abundant economies thrive. When the opposite is the case economies contract and die. Sure Marx got capital in crisis correct but capitalism has a myriad of ways to adapt. What neither capitalism nor socialism can survive is diminishing available energy that is costly in terms of energy cost to extract. And that’s where we are heading.
ideological bluster isn’t the long predicted collapse of russia…you are theoretically right but only theoretically they seem to be coping well with the much lauded western sanctions which were supposed to bring them to their knees quick smart
Which just goes to prove that war is good for business. (one of the reasons capitalist states resort to it)
yes, but irrelivant to your ‘collapse of russia’ thesis pat
So what is Zaluzhny going to be doing now? (there are some things I don’t see!)
Looks like it’s going fine and dandy in Avdiivka unless you happen to be Zhaluzhnyi and Ukrainian. I hear Tucker C is doing a special interview with Vlad, that should keep PhuD apoplectic with rage. What a start to the weekend.
And your spelling is appalling! It is: Zaluzhnyi for your information!
Oh ye of little brain!
Who gives a fuck you elitist born to rule idiot.
What makes you so abusive NJ?
It’s about time that you Putinists heard from Anne Applebaum. Perhaps you should read some of her books, including the Pulitzer Prize winning ‘Gulag: A History’ which expose the secret atrocities of the era. Then again you won’t because you are so reliant on confirmation bias.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AZXQOuZR0I&t=826s
You’ve exposed yourself there Ovod old chap .Anne Applebaum was a rabid propagandist for the Iraq war, and famously defended Roman Polanski re his pedophilia.
Her husband , Radoslaw Sikorski , remember him?when FM of Poland tried to intervene to get the charges dropped.
Nice right wing people on the wrong side of history
I knew some idiot would jump in attempting to discredit Applebaum. Thanks for the ad hominem attack Francesca. Have you read any of her books? What would you know about history Francesca. What are your qualifications?
Davos woman, neocon nut. Pity because her books are good.
More labels, more ad hominem attacks. Putinists are not able to debate the issues.
Ovod only confirms he is biased AND hypocritical –” the famous U.S. neo-conservative and anti-Russian hawk Anne Applebaum,” … “Liberal hawks like Michael McFaul, Max Boot and Anne Applebaum are quick to denounce Russian aggression but ignore Israeli crimes” ie “On 7 January, Anne Applebaum, a historian and a staff writer at the Atlantic, retweeted a video of Russian missiles striking a Ukrainian hospital.” …. and ‘more than three months into the war in Gaza, Applebaum has still not acknowledged that Israel has attacked hospitals’
Also “Former Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, a member of several NATO think tanks who is married to prominent US foreign policy commentator Anne Applebaum, suggested openly that Washington was behind the bombing. He tweeted a picture of the gusher of natural gas with the label: “Thank you, USA.”
thank you Ovod
cal
Well Applebaum’s ‘weakness’ is that she is Jewish. She has a right to support Israel, it’s her choice.
Yet another ad hominem attack from a Putinist who is not able to debate the issues.
So anyone who supports Ukraine is biased and a neo-con! Labels, labels, labels.
Yawn
PhuD, the GULAG was a Soviet era event. Russia is not the Soviet. I’m certain you think that that Kruschev (a Ukrainian), Beria and Stalin (Georgians) never ever sent anybody to the GULAG, no, only those damned Rooskies did!
Am I to believe your next leap of faith? PhuD declares Putin responsible for the GULAG. You heard it here first!!!!!!!!!!
Khrushchev to you birdbrain!
Also Putin sees himself as a successor to the USSR and is rehabilitating the image of Stalin and Dzerzhinsky. Many Soviet names have not been changed. St Petersburg is still part of Leningrad oblast, Ekaterinburg is still part of Sverdlovsk oblast.
The siloviki of the FSB/KGB never abandoned their Soviet doctrines.
Actually Putin is setting up new gulags in the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as we speak.
Yet again you display your ignorance NJ.
???????????????? PhuD you are deranged. Seek help.
It is too much to expect the likes of Pat and Ovod to actually pay attention to what Putin and other Russian officials are actually saying. Better they comfort themselves with this (though it might cause Ovod a fit of jealousy)
https://twitter.com/MaxEvansUMP/status/1755318270725366027
Putin is an inveterate liar. If you believe his lies, you have a problem.
Wow, we’re all a bit out of sorts this morning! Poor Ben, produces a reasoned opinion piece and then is subject to personal abuse from you keyboard warriors. None of you are presenting as nice people so let’s get some of your grubby secrets out. One of you tucks his shirt into his underpants, another a hideous scraptoft and as for the one that doesn’t change his sheets monthly…
And????
It’s not what we say that offends Kiwijoker it’s how we say it? How about supporting actual Nazi SS officers is fucked up >>> Canada parliament speaker resigns after calling Ukrainian Nazi veteran a ‘hero’.
Fuck off comedy boy.