At strategic level, last week was very significant for the War in Ukraine. Xi Jin Ping’s visit demonstrating clearly the NATO alliance’s strategic dominance and China’s unwillingness to enter into a direct conflict with it. Xi’s visit was marked by unwillingness to directly support Russia, a surprise given the current increase in tensions between the United States and China. Instead of taking the opportunity to increase tensions and force greater United States effort in Ukraine, diverting resources from other areas of interest Xi gave Putin a ‘cold shoulder.’ The Institute for the Study of War reported on 21 March that “Xi additionally did not signal an intent to provide support for Russia’s war in Ukraine beyond vague diplomatic assurances, which is likely a step down from what Putin hoped to secure in negotiations. Putin has likely failed to secure the exact sort of partnership that he needs and desires.” In practical terms, Xi realises that Russia is losing, therefore it does not make strategic sense to support Putin; particularly when the cost is economic sanctions being imposed by China’s largest trading partners.
If Putin was on the cusp of victory, things might be different his challenge to the United States and United Nations led ‘rules-based order’ possibly ‘opening a door’ for a potential future invasion of Taiwan. However, at this stage it seems that the potential economic cost of supporting Russia against a united NATO alliance, is too high so China is keeping its distance. Instead, China used the meeting to push other agendas specifically positioning itself as a peace-maker, an alternative leader for countries that feel they are not part of the ‘rules-based order club.’ This was not unexpected and is likely to form a key part of Chinese global strategy for many years.
Xi did not add anything new to the peace plan already on the table, continuing to support an immediate ceasefire and discussions about resolving the conflict. A solution that is clearly not in the best interests of Ukraine; and both Xi and Putin avoided significant discussion of the war. Putin blaming the NATO and the Ukraine for not being willing to seek peace. It appears that Xi and Putin ‘agreed to disagree’ and moved on to other discussions.
Another, prediction in last week’s column was fulfilled when Putin and Medvedev both made more nuclear threats. Medvedev’s threats were lost in the wind, his gratuitous statements are no longer taken seriously and were barely reported last week. However, Putin’s craziness was picked up by the media. His claim that the United Kingdom sending depleted uranium shells to Ukraine was a nuclear escalation are insane. Depleted uranium is a very hard metal that is used to make the penetrators of anti-armour rounds, it is used because it is very dense and cheaper than the alternative tungsten. Most anti-tank rounds that rely on kinetic energy; or hitting armour with a very fast and hard penetrator use depleted uranium. Including Russian shells! Depleted uranium is not a nuclear weapon and cannot be turned into a nuclear weapon. The claim is insane and is probably targeted at Putin’s home audience, people with limited access to opposing voices that will challenge the assertion. Another propaganda opportunity preparing the Russian people for a longer, more catastrophic war.
Then yesterday Putin made another nuclear threat, stating that he intended to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July 2023. Another threat, as predicted, aimed at scaring NATO but lacking in substance. So what if Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus? The United States already holds a large stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. Crossing Belarus in a truck is an overnight trip, or less than an hour’s flight time, so they can be quickly moved forwards; making the threat more symbolic than practical.
The problem with nuclear weapons though is that their effectiveness is based on their threat; not their actual use. And; we can be sure that if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons, he will initiate a cataclysmic NATO response, one that will end the game in Ukraine. He will also upset China and India his only significant supporters. Further, if he uses strategic nuclear weapons he dies; and more importantly so does everyone around him. Are Gerasimov, Shoigu and Medvedev really willing to let Putin kill them, their families and most of the world? Probably not. NATO and the United States will be closely monitoring Putin’s nuclear weapons and we can be sure that if there is a dangerous change in posture we will be told by the United States, rather than by Putin. So at this stage we should regard this threat as rhetoric.
Last week’s third prediction, that China will work out a plan to support Russia more, by evading sanctions and providing military equipment and supplies, cannot yet be verified but the meeting was notable for the absence of a public statement of support. Further, the United States has not yet been able to identify significant Chinese military aid that would trigger sanctions. So it looks like China will continue to buy Russian oil, gas and commodities and help keep its economy afloat but may not be willing to provide high levels of support and suffer large sanctions. However, it is possible that there are covert programmes operating that will take time to be identified.
Two potential benefits China stood to gain from supporting Russia were the legitimisation of force that a successful invasion of Ukraine may have provided; and testing the resolve of the United States and its allies to support a free state against a nuclear armed aggressor. Useful information if China is planning to re-integrate Taiwan by force. At this stage the utility of both is long past, so there is no margin in supporting Russia unless it contributes China’s wider strategic goals. And; currently it seems that China is not ready to risk economic war with the United States and its allies, even if tensions are rising in other parts of the world. Essentially, the key messages from Xi’s visit seem to be that China knows Russia is losing; and even a close personal relationship between Putin and Xi is not enough to risk China’s long-term economic security. This meeting demonstrated that the limits of ‘unlimited partnership’ have been reached.
However, the campaign will be won or lost on the battlefield; and how is the strategic situation going to impact on the frontline?
Russia isn’t going to get a ‘lifeline’ from China, there aren’t going to be large stocks of late-model Chinese tanks loaded on rail cars heading west, or train loads of ammunition arriving from China. Instead, this week video of 70-year-old Russian T 54 and T55 tanks taken out of storage and heading west were circulated. Russia’s army is culminating, incompetence and corruption have tamed the once fierce Soviet Bear.
This week the commentator community finally started to accept that the Russian army has culminated and that Bakhmut is only going to fall if Ukraine wants it to; and that the key questions in the campaign are when and where will the Ukrainian blow fall. On 24 March, The Institute for the Study of War reported that the Kremlin is discussing a Ukrainian offensive and preparing the Russian people for its impacts including that “Russian Security Council Deputy Head Dmitry Medvedev emphasized on March 24 that the Russian General Staff is aware that Kyiv is preparing for offensive operations and that the Russian General Staff is considering its own decisions and responses to prepare for a Ukrainian offensive.” Basically, that the Kremlin knows that there will be an offensive and they want to make sure that Russians know; and that its impacts on public opinion can be managed.
Russia’s military bloggers, a strangely influential group are also very active. Mostly, criticising the Kremlin and the military for their incompetence and worrying about where the offensive will fall. The internet is full of theories including Yevgeny Prigozhin’s theory that the Ukraine will invade part of Russia and capture Belgorod, using the city as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations. A claim apparently refuted by a Russian military blogger that the Institute for Study of War reported as follows: “A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian actors are disseminating disinformation about plans for a Ukrainian attack towards Belgorod Oblast, in order to draw Russian troops to border areas.”
This confusion tells us two things; that Ukraine’s domination of the information domain is still complete, and that the likelihood of the Ukrainian offensive being in the north-east is reduced. Ukraine is working hard to induce confusion and uncertainty in the Russians; and it appears to be working, watching Prigozhin’s breathless analysis video of the great Ukrainian plan that ‘he has uncovered’ was incredible and demonstrates why ex-convict, restauranteurs should not be running military operations. And; if they are running military operations, why their staff should control their social media channels! Compare this to Ukrainian messaging. First, there is very limited information about Ukrainian troop build-ups or activity. The information that is in the public domain is limited to statements from ‘un-named officials’ indicating only that there is a large offensive coming. Ukraine’s control of the information space means we are unlikely to guess correctly when and where the offensive will strike.
Russia’s main effort for the last few months has been Bakhmut. Ukraine has kept the Russian’s engaged in this area inflicting significant attrition on them, destroying both men and material. Essentially, Ukraine is using the advantages of fighting defensively to slowly ‘bleed’ Russia’s army by encouraging them to keep fighting a tough offensive battle. This is why the Ukrainian’s did not withdraw, they do not want to allow the Russians a respite to rest and recuperate. And; the Russians keep ‘taking the bait’ attacking again and again. Probably because after investing so much in the battle, already they simply can’t walk away. In recent days there are more reports of Wagner Group forces being exhausted and Russia’s elite airborne soldiers being sent to the area to reinforce the situation indicating the level of attrition being inflicted on the Russians. Ukraine is fighting smart, using the inherent political weakness of Russia’s commanders against them.
Russia is still active in other areas along the Eastern front, and this week maintained pressure on the Kremina-Svatove line north of Bakhmut. This line represents the final limit of Ukraine’s last push into Luhansk. Kremina is about 50km north of Bakhmut and is a step towards the important junction at Lyman 30km to the west, captured last year by Ukrainian forces. South of Bakhmut there is plenty of activity focussed around a town called Avdiivka, about 50km south of Bakhmut. Russia’s attacks are small, over a relatively large area and are being pushed back by the Ukrainians. Further south, at Vuledhar Russia’s attacks seem to have culminated. After months of suicidal frontal assaults this town remains firmly in Ukrainian hands.
In recent days the trend seems to be that Russian forces are reducing their activity near Bakhmut and starting to try operations to the north and south, launching small local attacks to spoil Ukrainian plans and dominate ground in preparation for a Ukrainian attack. Early last week, we saw film of columns of Ukrainian vehicles near Chasiv Yar, a key village about 5 km west of the town, evidence of troops moving into the area; either to support the defence or possibly getting ready for a local counter attack.
In summary last week was very important for the outcome of this war, China demonstrated that at this time it is not ready to openly support Russia. Even with the recent increase in Sino-American tension, the potential impact of United States, NATO and allied countries sanctions is too high for China to throw Russia a ‘life line,’ a risk highlighted in last week’s column. This week, that risk is reduced and that is very significant because it means that Putin is going to have to keep fighting with the resources that he currently has; a rabble of un-trained conscripts, low stocks of artillery shells, not enough guided missiles and seventy-year-old tanks being brought out of storage. Further, China’s position means that Ukraine has time at the operational and tactical levels to develop its plan instead of rushing to gain ground before Chinese material starts arriving.
Ukraine’s offensive is coming; and it will be sooner than most commentators are predicting. Recent reports from Ukraine are that the ground is still muddy and wet, and I believe that this practical factor is the key determinant of when Ukraine strikes. However, in the next few weeks watch for small Ukrainian attacks along the frontline as they probe Russia’s defences and try to conceal where the final offensive will hit. Then keep a look out for increases in partisan activity and Ukrainian deep-strikes by HIMARS and guided missiles, seeking to smash Russian logistics and command systems.
Finally, when the strike comes it is likely to be at a place not being talked about in the mainstream media, my pick being south to the Black Sea. The question is can Russia survive; or will its army in Ukraine collapse completely?
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger
If you don’t understand Russia, can you possibly understand China, Ben?
A chronological list of the titles of all Ben’s Ukraine articles would speak for itself.
I am succeeding. There WILL be a collapse of the financial system. USA, you lose!
My best friend the Beast from out of the earth (china). He’s a real BSer (other than by repeating what I say). He likes to BS like he’s a peaceful lamb. But in reality he gets everyone into big trouble (covid pandemic & supporting my war) so he can swoop in as savior, getting them on our side. So much winning!
But remember my faithful supporters, we will LOSE in the end!
(I’m getting hungry for some Lamb)
Depleted Uranium vaporizes into radioactive battle-field dust when used ,,,, poisoning and contaminating the areas it is used in.
“Fallujah, Iraq – Contamination from Depleted Uranium (DU) munitions and other military-related pollution is suspected of causing a sharp rises in congenital birth defects, cancer cases, and other illnesses throughout much of Iraq.” ,,,, https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2013/3/15/iraq-wars-legacy-of-cancer
“doctors and residents of Fallujah are blaming weapons like depleted uranium and white phosphorous used during two devastating US attacks on Fallujah in 2004 for what are being described as “catastrophic” levels of birth defects and abnormalities.”
“Chemist Chris Busby, said that the Fallujah health crisis represented “the highest rate of genetic damage in any population ever studied”. ,,,, apparently even more than the people of Hiroshima suffered from after the Atomic bomb was dropped on them. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2012/1/6/fallujah-babies-under-a-new-kind-of-siege
Russia has not used depleted uranium in Ukraine ,,, and the Poms should be denounced for introducing this long term toxin/poison ,,,.
It’s the new agent orange of war.
Slava birth defects & cancer.
Uranium-238 has a half life of 4.5 billion years and consists of ~99.7% of depleted Uranium. The remaining ~0.3% of Uranium-235 has a half life of over 700 million years.
It’s damn close to a stable element and whatever the effects of it’s use on the battlefield are, it’s nothing to do with it’s radioactivity.
Jeremy, are you a scientist? Did you actually diagnose the victims in Iraq?
https://paxforpeace.nl/media/download/pax-rapport-iraq-final-lowres-spread.pdf
https://wikileaks.org/wiki/Talk:US_M1A1_tank_penetrated_in_Iraq_by_mystery_round,_Oct_2008
I studied Biology at UoA but I’m not currently working as a scientist and no, of course I didn’t diagnose anyone in Iraq.
For the sake of clarity it’s the radioactive woo in the original comment that I was objecting to, not the fact that these effects are happening and could possible be caused by the chemical toxicity of depleted uranium shells – however even that is unlikely.
The below is an excerpt from the wikipedia page on the topic:
“The chemical toxicity of depleted uranium is identical to that of natural uranium and about a million times greater in vivo than DU’s radiological hazard”
So asking me if I’m a practicing scientist and if I diagnosed people in Iraq is completely irrelevant when you understand basic radiology, and given the level of radiation emitting from depleted uranium it is impossible for it to have an effect. It’s like asking an 8 year old if he’s a qualified astrophysicist when he says the sun doesn’t revolve around the earth.
Uranium is radioactive ,,,, depleted means less radioactive,,, but still radioactive.
We should do a study and implant Lower Radioactivity Uranium in the scrotum’s of all British Politicians ,,,, see if they get ball cancer.
Fallujah birth defects: A toxic remnant of the US invasion of Iraq? https://youtu.be/ETLZEoFn-lc?list=LL
On a lighter note ,,, Russian low tech 😉 ,,, ‘British MOD claims confirmed by MQ-9 Reaper incident “footage” https://www.bitchute.com/video/ljINWd46ZPIP/
Good Music and clownish Ukraine war jokes ‘The Hustle’,,,,. https://youtu.be/eS1UlbzC68w
The latest analysis of the Xi Putin summit published by RT authored by Fyodor Lukyanov confirms Ben Morgan’s analysis.
https://www.rt.com/news/573630-four-questions-about-russia-and-china/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=push_notifications&utm_campaign=push_notifications
As that arch American war hawk and imperialist Henry Kissinger said of American imperialism. “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests”
What Kissinger revealed about American imperialism is true of all imperialist nations.
Imperialism is principally an economic system backed up by soft power and hard power. When soft power is not enough to gain political influence and access to foreign markets and resources necessary for “growth” hard power is resorted to.
In exchange for a weakened Russia to get even minimal Chinese support Russia will have to open the Russian economy to Chinese economic penetration. I find it interesting that the last line of Xi statement at the end of the summit was to Chinese companies, to take advantage of this opportunity. ‘Come and get boys’ was Xi’s message to Chinese corporations and resource companies. Facing more and more military and economic the Russian imperialists will have to bend the knee more and more to China.
Lukyanov’s message was for Russians to support this process in every way possible.
From seeking to exercise suzerainty in Eastern Europe, Russia is becoming a suzerain of China.
From RT:
“…. Xi’s visit was crucial as a signal from the ruling Communist Party to all companies that they should work and look for opportunities in this country. This is understood in China. Russia’s task, for its part, is to support this process in every way possible.” by Fyodor Lukyanov
How the heck did you get any of that from Fyodor’s piece?
You’re either mental can’t actually read. Only the most optimistic mind-prisoned Westie could make any connection between the RT piece and the hysterical keyboard hammering Copium that is coming down Ben’s valium lines.
‘The Institution for the study of War’ is an American, NGO that headed by Kimberly Kagan married to Frederick Kagan relative of Robert Kagan who’s married to Victoria Nuland the architect of the Maidan protest in Ukraine which overthrew the elected president Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 that escalated Russia invasion in 2021 how convenient.
The Chinese have already won the first round of this geo-political alignment by bringing two M.E. powerhouses (Iran & Saudis) to the negotiating table and forming a peace pact earlier this month. This is a monumental event that sadly the western media hasn’t covered extensively. This will end the US petrodollar one of America economic pillars and bring much needed peace and stability to the M.E. region. This peace pact between these two countries will weaken & nullify the earlier peace arrangements ( Abraham Accords ) the Trump administration facilitated with the Israelis and other Gulf monarch’s in 2019.
China owns Taiwan its an Island off their coast in the South China seas. The One China Policy is acknowledge by most countries even the USA. And this ‘rule based orders’ is a western phrase that doesn’t adhere to the UNDHR charters & principals. It’s what the US makes up on the hop! If the US were so concerned about UN charters than why do they breach these principles systemically? The bombing of Syria over falsify chemical weapons attacks original OPCW reported that this wasn’t the case. Occupying Syrian oil and wheat fields illegally, and a myriad of destabilizing global catastrophe. And the Russians aren’t losing that pure fantasy.
IMO the Chinese deserve to be top dog. They have a plan that would shape this world into a better place and there’s a lot to be learnt from this ancient civilizational society. Quoting the great Chinese philosopher ‘The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting’
More peace no WAR.
How many countries has China invaded in the last 40 yrs ? – how many countries has the USA invaded in the last 40 yrs (Nato included)? One country invests and does business while the other drops bombs and kills.
Stop the war stop the killing – NZ should be careful with it’s anti China comments given it is our biggest export market.
Well they recently claimed the entire South China Sea region as theirs, in violation of international laws. Effectively violating a good half a dozen counties’s sovereign rights and their EEZs. On top of that, seized various islands in the region that do no belong to them, the militarizing the hell out of them.
They also consider the entire Indo-Pacific as rightfully theirs to control.
Is Xi Jin Ping a smiling assassin?
With China renaming Russia’s eastern cities, (Vladivostok once again is called Haishenwai) mountain ranges and islands to pre 1860 treaty days, is a takeover of far eastern Russia on the cards?
Worth a read
https://asiatimes.com/2023/02/chinas-ironic-reticence-on-land-grab-in-ukraine/
“Ou Hanzong, a Jiangsu-based columnist, said on February 20 that Chinese people has lost 1.7 million square kilometers of territory including what’s now called the Russian Far East region, Mongolia and some areas in present-day Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, to the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union under unequal treaties since the late 19th century.
Ou said the reuse of Chinese names of the Far East cities reminds Chinese people of their wishes to recover the lost territory.
The Russian government has not yet commented on the issue. However, it is arguable whether Moscow can complain about it because Beijing, while reverting to the use of the old Chinese names of the eight places, has not changed the English names.”
Gerrit, the article that you fleeced on the net to promote anti-China sentiment is a pro-western anti-China media site once owned by ‘Sondhi Limthongkul’ a regime change advocate supported by the (NED) to push anti-China sentiment in Thailand. Also what this got to do with China role in brokering peace arrangements between Russia & Ukraine???
You cannot see the smiling assassin analogy? Why would China rename those Russian entities to Chinese names from per 1860 treaty days?
Maybe you could provide a link to your approved pro China sentiments commentary on why the name changes?
Maybe this one is “approved”?
https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2023/02/23/2023-rfi-china-changes-china-russia-border-place-names/
“Finally, Akio Yaita said bluntly, “It is a common tactic of China to take advantage when others are in difficulty, gaining some small advantage thereby. If Russia really collapses this time, just possibly Xi Jinping will with a wave of his hand order ‘recover our lost territories immediately’. It is the so-called tactic ‘of taking advantage of someone else’s weakness to kill them’. These days, Wang Yi, the Chinese Politburo member in charge of foreign affairs, happens to be visiting Moscow. His patting himself on the back and saying that ‘the friendship between Russia and China is as solid as a rock’. But as anyone who has studied history knows, the history of Russian-Chinese relations is a book of deceitful deceptions.””
Gerrit, again irrelevant and making a small issue sound like it a matter of existential threat which it isn’t. The Chinese and Russians have far more important business to attend to then names of geographic regions. Your fleeced anti-China articles aren’t really that important in the scheme of things especially when China has managed to kill off one of America’s economic pillars the Petrodollar.
We will se in the future if this is a small issue as you say. I think it will be a major issue as China looks to pick the lowest fruit to reclaim territories. Far East Russia is far easier (land forces only) occupation and cause less international ruckus than a maritime invasion of Taiwan. The the Chinese playing the long game, Taiwan can wait. They have been steadily asserting influence via the suitcase. China simply moves people into the Far East Russian territories. The petrodollar is not a currency and is not a pillar of the USA economy. USA gets no reward for oil being traded in the US dollar. Oil is traded in US dollars as it can easily be used as a means of exchange for other goods and services around the world.
Petroyuan is not so popular for it can currently only be spent on Chinese goods and services. This may change but currently it is not a flexible exchange for goods and services.
Worth a read (though no doubt you will find something to discredit the information);
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/petrodollars.asp
“Oil exporters are free to accept payment in a currency of their choosing. Accepting Chinese currency would be most useful for investment in, and purchases from, China. Chinese capital markets are much smaller and less liquid than those in the U.S., and Chinese currency is not widely accepted outside China.”
So if New Zealand were to buy oil with Petroyuans we would first need a supply of Chinese Yuans. Some way away from that at present. Do New Zealand farmers (or Kiwifruit growers for example), through their cooperatives, receive Chinese Yuans for the milk and kiwifruit sold there? So these could be used to buy oil with the petroyuan? How easily is the Chinese Yuan converted to New Zealand dollars (and at what value) to pay local creditors and staff?
Buhahahaha, Its funny how you’ve again fleeced more anti-China sentiment cites to push disinformation. You need to read your shit before posting. Gerrit the devil is in the detail?
If China supports Putin with military hardware (basically artillery shells) it will be done covertly, not publicised in a joint statement. Still, the fact that there was no joint statement about mnilkitary support shows that any covert support will be quite limited.
I am still sticking by my view (stated here for the last few months) that neither side will be able to pull off a major offensive. By end of this coming summer there might be serious negotiations. Unfortunately there will be tens of thousands, on both sides, killed before then. The military commanders and their political leaders will believe they can achieve a military success in the summer. I doubt it.
B, the uranium dust particles have very low radiation levels, I read a Lancet report which couldn’t establish a definite link. That said Iraq was subjected to a toxic soup of chemical pollution which is common to modern battlefields. Add to this defoliants, and decades of agricultural chemical usage and you can guess what that does to your system.
Ben, in the face of defeat clutches for straws.
Yep this piece falls fully under “The women doth protest too much”. Soooo many desperate words.
Simplest explanation, in their own words and agreements is the clearest, and easy to find. Outcome is clear. No need to stare through Ben’s wavy Star n Stripe lenses. The Western narrative is in wild retreat, US & Nato scrambling to force in foolish anglo/euro nations to its stay tied to i atheirpron strings.
Thanks for the commentary Ben.
Looking forward to the Ukraine attack!
Ukraine is about to field the latest in armor.
Russia is dragging 70 year old mothballed T-55 tanks out of stores and museums.
Heck, tank enthusiasts are even salivating over the real possibility seeing antique T-34s showing up for the party.
WW2 era AFVs against Leopards and Challengers sure would make for some entertainment. Going to have to get bigger buckets for the popcorn.
China is the largest racist dictatorship on the planet. Ever. Truth not popular with sinophile quislings, eh.
Quite right Castro. The sinophile/Putinist brigade have no concept of truth.
These people of Donbass are thankful for the result of Putin’s “losing”.
They’re super keen to see more of this “losing”.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1621967069209141252
https://twitter.com/i/status/1636418435193225219