BREAKING: Roy Morgan Poll – Hung Parliament – Māori Party are Kingmakers!



Latest Roy Morgan Poll is out!

LABOUR: 33% nc

NATIONAL: 32% nc

GREENS: 10.5% down 2

ACT: 13% down .5

NZF: 3% up 1

TOP: 3.5% up 1

TDB Recommends

Māori Party 2% down 1.5%

This makes the Māori Party and the Māori vote essential and the drive for Māori roll 3 months before the election could generate a new electorate in 2026.

The most important part of this poll was it was taken up until the protest at the weekend, that means the Greens were already dropping before the weekend.

My fear is that the mob violence conducted by the woke activists shocked the wider electorate and the Greens have every chance now of actually polling less than their 2020 election result.

ACT will be the winner of ‘Pure Trans Joy’.

NZFirst’s launch mid month was so underwhelming it was the first time I thought Winston won’t get over 5%. I mean, sure, no one knows what the hell Waka Kotahi is (other than it’s in the News a lot) and we are too scared of being called racist if we asked, but removing all the Māori names from Government Agencies seems very tiny in comparison to what we are facing.

TOP are surging, and the Nashy will make them surge more. If a deal can by cut in Ilam with National or Labour, TOP will have enormous sway.

National are still behind Labour. Luxon is holding them back, but their recent very cleaver electricity policy alongside their righteous disgust at The Nashy will help.

The Greens should be reaching out to the Māori Party now and forging a 10 point bottom line plan to negotiate jointly with Labour for any hope of real progress.

Unfortunately the Greens are about as good at politics as Today FM was at ratings.

Labour have promised a second harbour crossing but they are so bad at delivery you could buy them a red van and call them Pat and they’d still fuck it up.

If Bread and Butter politics is to mean anything, it has to tax the rich to subside the poor and the service provided, be it free dental, free public transport, or vast increase in state capacity, it has to be meaningful.

2023 comes down to who is middle NZ frightened of most? National ACT Government or Labour, Green and Māori Party Government.

The reality is the economic sentiments are starting to corrode all issues as confidence plunges and more people believe NZ is headed in there wrong direction…

“However, there is growing concern that New Zealand may already be in a recession – its first for three years. The latest Stats NZ figures on the New Zealand economy show GDP contracted by 0.6% in the December quarter 2022 – the sharpest contraction for just over a year.

“The key Roy Morgan indicators continue to show weakness in March. The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence figure for March 2023 is 77.7, down 2.1pts from February. The indicator averaged 80.0 in the December quarter 2022 and has averaged only 80.3 during the March quarter 2023 – barely changed.

“As well as near record low Consumer Confidence, the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged 9pts to 86 in March – erasing much of the gains made earlier this year and following the resignation of former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

“Now a majority of 52.5% (up 5% points from February) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 38.5% (down 4% points) that say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.

“The driving factor behind this negative sentiment is the rapid increases to interest rates over the past 18 months. Since late 2021 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has increased interest rates from a record low of 0.25% to 4.75% – an overall increase of 4.5% points since October 2021.

…but do they blame Chippy and Labour for that wrong direction, that is the case National needs to make.


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  1. The next poll will include the episode with Nash and the dishonesty around involving him and the PM office during Jacinda’s time. Open and honest is just another lie to add to the rest of the broken promises.

      • If the only problem National have is having a MP in their ranks who bullied when he was 16 then they can order the champagne now. In comparison with the Nash debacle and Marama ‘s racist out burst it is a trivial matter.He will be back in parliment after the next election which is in doubt for the other two.

        • Trevor this is National. Of course it’s not their only problem. Simon O’Connor is just disgusting (and having trained as a Catholic priest, probably should have just shut about the risk to children from trans people) and then there is Maureen F.U.Pugh who must be wondering where to go next after National decided everything needs to be electric. Then of course there is Judas Collins, who is just is. Believe me National have their own issues, just like all of them.

        • But its not National’s only problem, is it – far from it
          Correspondence of Barbara Kuriger threatening MPI staff in her repeated attempts to thwart the subsequent convictions of her family members – will show Luxon up as the piss weak hypocrite he is.

      • Uffindell was at school you fool.
        Ardern was our Prime Minister,the Chipster is our Prime Minister, both donkey deep in this deviousness.
        Is Grant Robertson our next Labour leader.
        Whoops was/is he involved in the cover up?

  2. I see your boom and raise it boom boom.
    You fail to grasp that quite a lot may not even vote, for the useless trough feeding wankers that infest the beehive. Polls mean absolutely nothing in regards to the pantomime of 3 yearly politics.

  3. Rest assured that the population that is not hard left / Labour/Green does blame Labour for the economy and the emotional well being and state of the country. As they should.

  4. Te Pāti Māori are going to do well in October, Greens will hold up and certain electorate battles will be interesting. Turnout is king remember, it will be “Posie who?” by October.

    The Govt. have just put a good bit of dosh into a number of strugglers accounts, 1.4 million people from 1 April will get more. If Labour hammers this they may get a few more votes in this era of elder poverty and bennies being treated as a underclass.

    A final point–it is totally ridiculous to over egg the little scuffle at Albert Park. I have been on demos and pickets where bones were broken by the cops, and permanent injuries inflicted, grow up some of you whimps.

    • No. It is not ridiculous to over-egg the situation at Albert Park, nor is it ok to minimise the violence meted out by those who claimed to be there to stand up against violence. In what world is it ok to bash a 70 year old woman, unprovoked, and crack her skull? If the TRAsh are unwilling to accept biological reality, and if the TRAsh heterosexual male allies are unwilling to accept that they are transphobic when they would not sleep with a woman with a penis (but lesbians should!) and gay men are called transphobic because they wont sleep with a man with a vagina, then the TRAsh need to get away and reconsider their hysterical approaches and how they are single handedly destroying all the goodwill that Gay men and Lesbian women have built since the homosexual law reforms around the world.

      Why TRAsh? Trans Rights Activist Straight Heteros.

      • It wasn’t the cops breaking bones that day it was pure trans joy.
        You really underestimate the political backlash and ramifications thousands of Kiwis will enact on polling day.
        This will only benefit right leaning parties to the detriment of the left and sweetly ironically, the trans movement.
        Well done guys (literally)

      • Sorry that 70 year old woman wasn’t attacked unprovoked she provoked it by attacking an innocent young man standing still holding a placard in several meters of open space. She charged him with closed fists and punched him. There are witnesses to her attack. He responded to her attack. She got what she deserved back in spades. So stop spinning your bullshit.

        • Lol. Sure, mate. Defending an assault of a pensioner is disgusting. Are you telling us that if an old lady took a swing at you, you’d deck her? What a great man you are.

        • I am stunned Geoff Lye. Have you seen video footage of what you claim? I have seen footage of a young man punching the 70 year old women at least twice. I’ve seen her black eye.

          The woman was running but the most likely hypothesis was she was trying to get the hell out of there given the angry mob, mostly men were being threatening and aggressive to the let women speak women and they far outnumbered the women. There is know video evidence that I have seen of the women attacking the man. Produce some or withdraw and apologise. It is very clear he punches her at least twice.
          Shame on you for suggesting the other way around.

  5. Now here’s a lovely thought to ponder. For a while I’ve considered that it’d be Seymour for Deputy PM.

    Maybe it’ll be Rawiri Waititi! Imagine the apoplexy.

  6. Treading water again but yes, this predates Nashes latest latest misdemeanor and the PM office cover up, the woman’s rights rally rainbow violence and Marama outing herself as a dumb racist. again.

    • I’m looking forward to a government where there won’t one for a decent period.
      One where the flakes drop off and the wannabes lose interest as the bs subsides. That should take about 3 to 6 months.
      And then possibly another election, maybe.
      The main thing is to flush the shit out of the system. There is a lot of that so it may take a few attempts.

      Maybe we should have a crack at governance by referendum? Demote MPs to just being administrators? Remove, get rid of list MPs and just have 120 constituency MPs that can be sacked by their constituents!

      That way we just vote on policy by referendum and then it becomes a piece of legislation and then enacted. Keep the politicians away from the decision-making and the bureaucrats!

      As long as the greens die. NZ will be a safer place for all of us.

  7. People are realising that a National and ACT government mean no payrises, no sick leave, no annual leave, and US style user pays healthcare.

  8. If TOP Party want to get in and win the Ilam seat, then Raf Manji better get off languishing on his chaise-longue in Thorndon and give some damn hustle OK?

  9. Unfortunately, unless TPM can show they are not just focussed on one ethnicity group of people and promote only policies that advance one ethnicity group over another, then, yes, the electorate is going to be more afraid of a L/G/TPM coalition than a N/A one. Although I could be ignorant of the wide sweeping policies TPM may have – someone will tell me I should just look them up..

  10. Correction: The cash rate has not increased 4.5% it has increased by a factor of 19 AKA 1,900%. Lies damn lies and official statistics.


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