Latest Roy Morgan and the Taxpayer Union polls (taken before Jacinda stood down so are currently meaningless) show how effective the ZB Troll hate farm has been in driving post Covid animosity and a relentless tsunami of hate at Jacinda.
Coupled with Labour’s lack of transformation, inability to articulate what coGovernance is, our woke activist cliques superpower to alienate voters with their cancel culture bullshit and a down turning economy, and the tide is going out on the political Left.
This is a tragedy because the romper stomper hard right Government of ACT/National will usher in conflict culture destabilisation policies which will lead to violence, civil disobedience and what could be a pitched battle on Parliament’s Lawns.
Don’t believe me?
Claim that’s hyperbole?
Let me ask you to consider the following.
David Seymour gets a double digit result for ACT forcing National to cut a deal with them for Government. David is far more shrewder and smarter than Luxon and will get everything he wants as policy, including the immediate sacking and cancellation of the Ministry of Māori Development alongside rewriting the Treaty of Waitangi (with zero input from Māori).
If you for one fucking second think Māori and their Pakeha allies will allow a far right cracker party like ACT to erase Māori political voice inside the State, WHILE single handedly rewriting the Treaty of Waitangi, then you don’t understand NZ politics and you should shut the fuck up!
I’ll tell you what happens when ACT announce they are dumping the Ministry of Māori Development and rewriting the Treaty after they gain power, the reaction will see an eruption of incandescent fury amongst Māori and their many allies that will immediately see the largest protests in this country with an enormous and angry Hikoi called to descend upon Wellington, and this time you won’t have thousands of angry antivaxx protestors on Parliament’s Lawns, you will see 250 000 enraged protesters descending upon Parliament’s lawns, and what do you think a terrified Christopher Luxon, totally out of his depth, will do?
He’ll panic and send in the military which will trigger unimaginable chaos.
Māori will not allow their gains to be erased by a cracker Party like ACT and all of you who don’t seem to understand this shouldn’t be commentating because you clearly don’t know anything.
My guess is that the vast amount of people who voted Labour in 2020 but have switched their vote in protest to the Right have no comprehension whatsoever of what ACT are prepared to do in power so won’t see any of the looming backlash at all.
In short, the extreme nature of an ACT/National Government could lead to civil conflict.
One top of that, their abusive social policy will push hundreds of thousands into more desperation and crime.
Under ACT/National all we will see are bigger prisons, mass immigration, a new property bubble, never ending rent rises, armed Police, removal of any environmental protections and a State prepared to use any force necessary to ram through their conflict policies.
With a hard right Government looming in front of us, the demand for the Left to actually co-operate to prevent that is essential.
In 2017 I helped then Chief of Staff Matt McCarten put together the Labour election strategy.
It was simple, use MMP to cut National’s support Parties so NZ First would choose Labour.
We did that by standing a strong public service candidate like Greg O’Connor in Ohariu against Peter Dunne to knock him out of the race and by bringing Willie Jackson and urban Māori away from the Māori Party.
That cut National’s support Parties and made it impossible for National to gain a majority.
With the 2023 election now being so close, Labour must again look to using MMP dynamics strategically and tactically to ensure they can win while promising a 100 day plan once elected to pass a range of policy focused on cost of living issues.
To that end, Chippy should consider using the same tactic that National and ACT do in Epsom and have electorate coffee dates to let Labour voters know who to electorate vote to maximise the MMP dynamics for a win in 2023.
Central Auckland – Chippy should have a coffee with Chloe to ensure she retains Auckland Central, the Greens are wobbly in the Polls and always over poll while their voters stay home and rarely turn out. I also think the international vote that always heavily favours Green/Labour won’t save them next year with so many expats furious they were locked out over Covid.
Waiariki – If the Māori Party gain more electorate seats than party vote, they generate an MMP overhang that makes it far more difficult for the Right to win a Parliamentary majority. Retaining Waiariki and picking up two more electorate seats would be essential for this.
Tāmaki Makaurau – Peeni Henry has already intimated he would prefer to be on the list than run in this electorate, the Maori Party candidate would clean up if Chippy had a coffee with her.
Te Tai Hauāuru – It is tradition for the Speaker to step down from an electorate and be on the list only, Adrian Rurawhe will do that, and a coffee between Chippy and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer would win it for her, which if taken alongside Wairiki and Tāmaki Makaurau would give the Māori Party 3 electorate seats and they are likely to win sub 3% Party vote thus creating an overhang.
Ilam – This is where it gets interesting. Gerry Brownlee has stepped down from the electorate (he is fancying his chances as Speaker in the next Parliament) so if Chippy had a coffee with Raf Manji from TOP and directed Labour voters to electorate vote him and he wins, he would also bring in MPs using the coat tail dynamic meaning TOP wouldn’t have to get over the 5% threshold.
At this stage a Labour/Green/Māori Party (with the possibility of TOP) Government is the only chance for the political progress on the big economic issues we need.
A National/ACT Government would be the most right wing since Roger Douglas while NZ First’s inclusion would just be another 3 years of hand breaks for Labour.
It’s time to use MMP strategically using the very tactics National and ACT have used for decades in Epsom while focusing on real issues for working people.
The woke middle class activist base have screamed social justice for 3 years and cancelled anyone who disagrees.
This mindset doesn’t win elections.
Pure temple dogma over Broadchurch politics can’t win elections.
Poor people are not at home discussing who to cancel for misusing a pronoun, they are arguing over hot to pay the bills.
Chippy’s move towards economic justice over social justice signals that Chippy understands how damaging the Woke have become to the movement, know he needs to play a far more strategic MMP election campaign.
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So here you are saying that ACT/National will usher in conflict culture destabilisation policies which will lead to violence and the rest, and then in “After Ratana,” Hipkins first and most obvious move is to announce that the Three Waters legislation will be repealed – isn’t that seen to be a conflict culture destabilisation policicy given the co-governance issue around it?
And no NZ First to count on thanks to Trevor actions, and Jacinda lack of spine in dealing with Trevor.
And no NZ First to count on thanks to Trevor actions, and Jacinda lack of spine in dealing with Trevor.
Martyn, stop it. It is just plain delusional to think that adding the Maaori Party to this LINO-Greens government will save us. This government is being sunk by its addiction to identity politics, and your solution is … more identity politics?
Hear hear PP
Try reading the blog, it actually suggests the opposite. But hey! You keep being you bruh!
Agreed. More ‘sandal-wearing pistachio-shirted middle-class socialists’ is exactly what this country doesn’t need.
If TPM and the current mad lot of the Greens are the lefts only choices then one can rightfully assume that the left is fucked. And to think that the L Party had a full majority and did nothing with it.
“Coupled with Labour’s lack of transformation, inability to articulate what coGovernance is, our woke activist cliques superpower to alienate voters with their cancel culture bullshit and a down turning economy, and the tide is going out on the political Left.”
And that is why so many disliked Jacinda. Because at the end of the day was that Person not only Prime Minister, they also were the Leader of the labour Party and thus it was Jacinda that oversaw that lack of transformation, that inability to articulate what Co-Governance is, that bringing about of Self ID and thus the destruction of everything that women – human females have fought for a few hundred years, the fucked up economy that has been fucked up since lockdown and was literally only held up by various government money injections that largely went to businesses who did not need them. And all of that was mindlessly rubberstambed by the Gender Cultists in the Green Party and by the labour dude and his female counterpart in the Te Pati Maori.
Jacinda was not hated, she was feared, her labour party is still feared, and she was intensely disliked for her lack of care of those that they had no use for. Ordinary NZ’lers. Small business owners. Unemployed people. Unhoused people. Hungry people. All those that the leader of the Labour Party left behind.
Personally i am glad that Jacinda has left the sinking ship first and before anyone else, as maybe now we can organize saving us stuck on the boat with no life saving rafts. At the very least we don’t have to pretend anymore that we have a kind PM or a PM who cares.
If National wins, it is because Labour did not give a fuck about winning. If they cared about winning they would have to change direction and get stuff done.
Empty words have no more mileage, and sadly for the Labour Party there are very few left that would consider voting for either G or TPM to shore up the Labour Party.
Imagine, you have a full majority, you do absolutely nothing with it, and then you try to fear monger people into voting for the group that squandered a full majority. The chutzpah!
Wonderfully said Reactionary
The red pill from RB.
What Left? I don’t think Hipkins trying to out-National National is going to end well.
Agree Castro in plain sight selling out his voter base.
So moving position to where the New Zealand voting public are is wrong?
I am in the Ilam electorate and have never heard of TOP promoting themselves . Labour have done nothing of note so why would we want them or their mates back in power. National have a good candidate and he will do well in this blue seat I think
Notice how the path to victory gets more and more complicated and unlikely as we get closer to the election.
TOP won’t win in Ilam. CovidCult made all the white wealthy housewives vote for Jacinda in a one off. They are not going to vote for Indian male espousing socialist ideas just when the cost of living made their 2 week trip to Fiji shortened to 5 days.
This will flop back to National come later this year much like places such as Hamilton East/West, Upper Harbour, Northcote, Northland, TukiTuki and Whangarei. The inner West – Te Atatu, Mt Albert and Mt Roskill could also fall in a landslide.
In fact outside of South Auckland, Wokeington, East Chch and Dunedin I can’t see labour retaining a seat.
Of more interest will be the reaction of Labour’s Maori caucus when the Maori Party hits 5-6%.
Dunedin will go to National…..with the change from the Local Council elections and the new hospital rebuild showing signs of being a typical Labour Party display of incompetence , things are ripe for a change for sure….
6 months ago you proclaimed that TPM would be lucky to hold their seats, why do you now think that they will get 5 to 6 percent of the vote?
Martyn left out the boiling oceans and rain of molten lava that will eventuate if there is a Nat/ACT government….
Ada sorry don’t follow?
Electing an ACT/ National government is apparently one of the signs of the Apocalypse.
No signs about it!
Implying exagerrated doomsaying.
Fear, uncertainty and doubt, a tried & true recipe.
You realize that unless Labour pulls some real magic out of their arse, something that makes life better for the majority of Kiwis and puts it in place before the election, so the benefits can be reaped before the election (something that would be difficult to impossible for the current bunch of clowns), then New Zealand’s best hope to get us out of the mire we’re sinking in, is an ACT/ National government in October.
After the election promises definitely won’t fly this time round. Kiwis need to hear “we done this”, not another round of “let’s do this”.
Very well said Helen Beck.
How about another ‘cost of living’ payment…
Say $250/week per household for the three months before the election,.
Could promise another 3 months worth if elected.
Borrowed off our grandchildren like the other $120B?
You sound somewhat negative about your suggestioon. It might be bad, but compared to what?
And would that bring about meaningful change, or would it just be a straight up, election bribe?
Most of “bribe” style promises (like tax cuts etc), only really work if they are to be delivered after an election, because you have to elect the promising party in order to get the bribe. Of course many of these bribes evaporate post election and then there is little the voters can do about that.
Labour have failed to deliver on too many promises, and have delivered too many surprises for most voters to extend a lot of trust to them. If they want to get re-elected, some real magic, pre-election, will be needed.
Probably should also mention that pushing the firearms registry is a vote loser (votes going directly to ACT), and won’t win over anyone who wouldn’t already have voted Labour.
The non delivery by the Labour Government of their promises should deter everyone from voting for them.
As someone else said, “I wouldn’t trust them to deliver a pizza”.
Beats the $2 a week tax cut Luxon is bribing us with I guess Anaru.
Labour will have to fire the reserve bank guvnr and hire one who will set an affordable interest rate and save the mortgage belt or they wont have enough middleclass swing voters left. The expected midyear doubling of monthly mortgage payments will really be taking its toll by the Oct election.
It’s getting tough out there, this couple may even have to sell them their home…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brings-tears-to-my-eyes-family-consider-selling-after-2500-monthly-interest-rate-rise/LGT6FRARRZAELKHDWVHJJYDIHE/
I don’t think ‘Chippie’ can publicly endorse Maori Party candidates without it sinking him.
If he doesn’t reverse the water system reforms, he loses.
If he starts saying he wants a coalition with the Maori Party, that would mean caving to tribal ownership of water — and he still loses.
His only hope is to make Labour seem totally different from before, with a totally different policy platform. He could then try and say: “All those failures on the water system, housing, racial separatism, the tramways, broadcasting… that’s all the old boss’ fault!”
Kristoff R.
That’s exactly what he is doing throwing the old boss under the bus.
The votes Labour have shed are the Womens Weekly readers and the ‘Branch Covidians’.
They’re not coming back.
You can take 2 off the right and give 2 to the left with a poll run be the 2 hard right wing bloggers. Not a reliable poll and manipulated.
Ilam is literally a street away from my house.
There’s no chance anyone but national wins that snobby af electorate of old money millionaires, 2020 was a fluke.
Sure try a seat deal but a seat deal for top would be Pete Dunnes old electorate or wellington central, grant can say he’s too busy handling the economy to be an electorate mp and get James Shaw to stand list only.
As for the Maori electorates, labour shouldn’t stand in any of them, say the Maori electorates should be for kp Maori party’s, why? If Maori party gets 7 seats on 2% party vote they’ll cause a 4 seat over hang making it impossible for anyone to govern without Maori party and if they go with national they keep act out of cabinet or they go with labour.
The greens should straight up make Chloe sole leader, labour should not run in Auckland central (but they will cos labour are stupid)
The left should totally game the mmp system but arrogance won’t let them.
Anything but another LINO led government.
A hung parliament for a long while would be better.
Anything but the status quo.
You’re as much a simp as any of the Nat fanatics.
Your blind devotion despite the misery this lot have wrought is sickening.
Bang on Bomber. this so called Liberal right, is nothing short of capitalism at its extreme liberalization,that will better the few and those would be, if could be, eigits, who rabid to the blinkered wash, in most, shall not prosper.
As for the Treaty, and those ignorant enough not to recognize, it as the grail, a founding Poutokomanama, of this our Nation Aotearoa/New Zealand.
Willie,get better.
The most salient point to come out of Bomber’s Machiavellian master plan, and all the comments it has attracted, is that our system of so-called “Democratic Capitalism” serves nobody but the 10%, as it has always done, and so needs to be replaced with a system that produces results that serve the masses. But that’s not going to happen, and so we’ll blunder on.
What system is that bro?
I think he wants something like communism…? Which is really serving the chinese and russian and north korean people well. Our system is simply no good – you can live how you want to, you can go wherever you want, you can do any job that you like, you can make the most of any opportunity if you like – nobody to stop you, you can buy any of the nice goods available from all around the in the world, you can leave the country and come back when you want, very little of your money is spent on war things, you can ask for help and money if things aren’t good if you like, you have lots of choices as to who governs you, you can say what you like, you can criticise your govt without being sent to some gulag…it’s all no good.
Let me think of an example Anaru – maybe one which in the last thirty years, has brought more people out of poverty than ever before witnessed in the history of the world, would be a good place to start, And of course it would help, so as not to be too scary for us to consider, if it employed Capitalism, but only a style of it that avoids the repetitive failings of the genre we’re wedded to. Oh, and it would also be nice if it didn’t have a history of promoting perpetual war in pursuit of pillage to prop itself up, but instead offered poorer countries development aid without strings. Yes, a country that fitted that description would certainly be worth looking at wouldn’t it
The United States of America.
A lot of talk out there celebrating like National and Act have won already, when in reality these people are unemployed politicians drawing down the country’s biggest benefits (Seymour himself is a long term beneficiary and it will take multiple wraparound services to get him back into meaningful employment). No what we have here is the right’s fight for their survival. If they lose this election then not only are Luxon and ACT gone, but it will mean the disintegration of rightwing politics itself. That would be the sight to behold, not a Labour defeat. We got a glimpse of the purge when National lost six years ago, but a loss this time is existential for the nats. People have had a gutsful of the fear race baiting, conservative quackery, and the economic self mutilation the right want to vomit into existence. I believe the people who turned to the Labour left in the last couple elections still hold the cherished values of community and will do what is right for the country. Vote left and you at least get the hope for a better future, in reality it is the only choice, with the added bonus of seeing the embarrassment on the faces of Luxon and Seymour on election night as their political careers and party’s go up in flames.
At least Labour MP’s don’t need to worry about their careers going up in flames as their cushy, high paid jobs disappear. As their ship finally sinks into the depths, while they fritter away their final hours rearranging the deckchairs, the icy waters closing over their heads will extinguish any flames there might be.
Labour needs to make a real positive difference for the majority NOW, if they want any hope.
There are no flames in the Labour Government,at best the occasional spark.
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