The 2023 MMP overload scenario

31
2006

We have lived through a political period of time since MMP that has managed to dilute and temper the idealogical extremes of Left/Right politics in NZ.

The need to compromise and pull punches is fundamental to the MMP dynamic HOWEVER that completely gets thrown out the window if there is no political centre left.

The political centre has been hollowed out so much under MMP that Labour and National are almost indistinguishable in their acquiescence to neoliberal mantra.

The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority.

These highly polarised times have the potential to create an outcome that is hated regardless of which side wins.

The coming economic recession will be as much a crisis as Covid and will require a lockdown level commitment from an all of Government approach.
Into this febrile landscape of social media hate algorithms comes a highly polarised electorate & I think MMP dynamics could end up causing enormous ramifications electorally.
There is a nightmare scenario where everyone participates and then hates the splintered unmanageable outcome.
MMP OVERHANG: We don’t appreciate how much protest ACT support in Auckland there is after the lockdowns. Leo Molloy is currently harvesting it and I think ACT will too, they were able to get 10% in an electorate as blue as Tauranga and I think we will see an Auckland protest vote that votes National as their candidate, but ACT as the Party vote. I think the combined effect of the Right polarising around ACT will fuel the MMP overhang dynamics which will push the majority required higher because of more MPs.
INTERNATIONAL VOTERS: Traditionally this has favoured the Greens & Labour, but the border closures have generated a tsunami of hate and spite from those locked out all generated towards Labour and Labour’s allies, I see the vast majority of this international vote going against Labour and the Greens this election.
MĀORI ELECTORATES & TACTICAL VOTING ON MĀORI ROLL: If the Māori Party pick up another electorate plus increase their party vote they could gain more MPs because of the over hang feature. National also wants to run candidates this year so could pick up disaffected Māori votes, but if Labour are to retain power it will have to be via some Māori Party pick up in these electorates and a strong Party vote for labour in the Māori electorates as well.
NZ First breaches 5%: Everything is thrown into chaos if NZ First breach 5%.
To save Jacinda, Left jettison Greens who don’t cross 5% but win Auckland Central: In the turning tides of political fortune, disgruntled Left voters who have drifted Green could come back to save Jacinda and with no international voters to save them, the Greens slip beneath 5% but Chloe brings them back in via Auckland Central.
Sub 5% wasted vote: The anti-mandate dumb lives matter protests are seeking political representation on multiple fringe front, none of which can breach 5% on their own but will see a vast chunk of people voting but gaining no representation.
The 2023 MMP overload scenario:
I think the splintering of the political spectrum in the face of a rigged capitalism that serves only the polluters, banks and speculators is a real possibility.
You could have a polarised right that almost gets to 50% combined with a NZ First whose inclusion either side only generates a 1 vote majority combined with a fractured and frustrated Left combined with international voters turning against the Left combined with lots of angry voters who won’t gain any representation.
An overhung Parliament including Labour, NZ First, Māori Party, National, ACT and the Greens where the only majority is 1 vote regardless of composition will the worst of all worlds and become utterly unmanageable at an economic recession demanding leadership.

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31 COMMENTS

  1. I think “International voters” are non-citizens voters, AKA “tourist New Zealanders/transnational capitalists”. “Overseas voters” would be a more accurate term for what you are describing, Martyn.

  2. I think the Greens have a calcified 5% rump. There’s still plenty of leafy middle class Grey Lynn cargo bike riding types, the woke in general and aging hippies with little short term memory issues to scrape in. Auckland Central is no gimme however with Auckland Transports moronic, “we’re down with the kids” cell within it to truly alienate voters from voting left again!

    Labour are marginal to even break 30% but can thank the Luxon/National stale white loaf Party that they’ll even manage that!

    You’re right however, that Labour have fucked themselves by being so overtly National like to be indistinguishable!

  3. If the exodus of young people to Australia and beyond, in search of the possibility of more affordable housing ramps up, I wouldn’t count on Swarbrick winning Auckland Central at all.

      • Oh don’t worry. Aussie pinches our top grads in environmental science, solar engineering, green design etc.
        You name it.

  4. Alternatively, Labour’s vote is hollowed out as moderately centre-left voters go to the apparently mild and more competent Nats, while its despairing true-believers head to the Greens to support a Left party that at least stands for something.

    Some 25-50 aged women will stay with Jacinta out of residual fandom, and the industrial/union Left votes in support of the Labour movement.

  5. The forced Māori fixations on everyone in New Zealand will seal Labour’s fate this election…It’s just forced down on us now….I have listened to the Nash and watched TV one for years…..very happy with those two broadcasters , but it’s like radio Māori or tv Māori…..now it’s my records and cassettes for sounds….I don’t like Hosking and the other commercial radio stations…I’m not even sure how to change radio channels on my stereo thingy as it doesn’t show what station I’ve changed too…The scandal period 6 weeks before the election will be interesting as Winston will have some excessive Māori spending…Labour will have some nasty Nats back room deals to expose and depending if the Nats need Winston or not they will have something to destroy or save Winston…..The Greens don’t need any help destroying themselves…they are experts by themselves……the dumb could get there if they can combine and organise themselves and Leo getting in could just be the catalyst they need……the non offensive middle is so vacant it’s crazy….If National do little , say little , smile , shake hands and kiss babies they are in….

  6. NZ will be just full of old crusty boomers crying about their rental returns in a couple years. That’s when immigration ramps up again and Kiwi young have no option but to leave.

  7. Oh well, the political ex-spurts have spoken!

    The new gens are in the ascendency due to human mortality regardless of other factors, for 2023 and 2026 and beyond. So the parliamentary political landscape will change regardless of what the grey beards say.

  8. Labour/Greens are wiped out —- except in the deepest red seats, perhaps Auckland Central for the Greens???…NZ First breaks 8%…Act/National win…Maori Party out the door.

  9. Without the NZ First ‘hand brake’ Labour are bleeding profusely in the polls and are making NZ First and even the Opportunity Party look like they are needed in a big way.

    Can Winnie or Shane work with ACT ! I think NZ First can definitely work with Chris and Nicola.

  10. The problem for the left wing is that since Sue Bradford left there has not been a single true leftie in politics. NZ desperately needs a Mick Lynch to articulate the voice of the working class.

  11. I’m guessing your MMP Overhang paragraph speaks to Chippy’s regrets about the length of the Auckland lockdown.

    Well he and now Labour might have regrets, but I’m fairly sure plenty of Auckland voters had a guts full of Labour during and after that damn near 4 month treat.

    It shouldn’t have been in hindsight that Wellington treating Auckland like it’s pet insect in a jar was seen as bad. It was screamingly obvious at the time that this assault on the most basic freedoms was going way too far.

    Locking 1.5 something million people up, like they did, plenty being voters, will see a lot of protest votes for sure!

  12. Your points are good Martyn and like you I agree we cannot afford a splintered Government with only tougher times to come.
    You may not agree but the current Labour Government under Jacinda Ardern is what we don’t need.

  13. There won’t be an overhang from ACT and National. Act will comfortably cross 5%, and be close to 10%. Therefore no overhang from ACT. There will be no overhang from National. It is not even remotely likely that National will win more electorate seats than their party vote share.

    Seat overhangs only occur when a small party wins seats, but has less share of the vote than the electorate seat win would indicate. For instance the last election of Jim Anderton and the last election of Peter Dunne.

  14. ” The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority ”

    Well Bomber we know the far right are way ahead with Mr Seymour , his Epsom seat and a reasonable cash flow with his right wing donors which will be of great help for the next Nasty Natz government

    This political pent up tension does not apply to the far left because there is no vehicle to carry or acknowledge that tension.

    We need a Mick Lynch ( secretary general of British Rail ) who is actually doing a far better job than the UK labour leader Starmer who replaced Corbyn and has driven any left leaning Corbyn supporters who were only advocating what the UK Labour party used to stand for before Blair’s third way neo lib takeover.

    That pent of tension and frustration is out there with so many who once again have been done over by Adern, Robertson and the current left wing impersonators of the NZLP.

    ” combined with lots of angry voters who won’t gain any representation ”

    Yes another fraudulent election campaign and the usual suspects of the NZLP pretending to be something they arent.

    At least ACT is honest about its intentions and who it represents.

  15. ” The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority ”

    Well Bomber we know the far right are way ahead with Mr Seymour , his Epsom seat and a reasonable cash flow with his right wing donors which will be of great help for the next Nasty Natz government

    This political pent up tension does not apply to the far left because there is no vehicle to carry or acknowledge that tension.

    We need a Mick Lynch ( secretary general of British Rail ) who is actually doing a far better job than the UK labour leader Starmer who replaced Corbyn and has driven any left leaning Corbyn supporters who were only advocating what the UK Labour party used to stand for before Blair’s third way neo lib takeover.

    That pent of tension and frustration is out there with so many who once again have been done over by Adern, Robertson and the current left wing impersonators of the NZLP.

    ” combined with lots of angry voters who won’t gain any representation ”

    Yes another fraudulent election campaign and the usual suspects of the NZLP pretending to be something they arent.

    At least ACT is honest about its intentions and who it represents.

    https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2022/06/23/rmt-general-secretary-mick-lynch-left-a-trail-of-stunned-establishment-hacks-in-his-wake-this-week/

  16. ” The far left and far right have enormous pent up political tension that will rupture once Labour or National are dependent on their numbers for a majority ”

    Well Bomber we know the far right are way ahead with Mr Seymour , his Epsom seat and a reasonable cash flow with his right wing donors which will be of great help for the next Nasty Natz government

    This political pent up tension does not apply to the far left because there is no vehicle to carry or acknowledge that tension.

    We need a Mick Lynch ( secretary general of British Rail ) who is actually doing a far better job than the UK labour leader Starmer who replaced Corbyn and has driven any left leaning Corbyn supporters who were only advocating what the UK Labour party used to stand for before Blair’s third way neo lib takeover.

    That pent of tension and frustration is out there with so many who once again have been done over by Adern, Robertson and the current left wing impersonators of the NZLP.

    ” combined with lots of angry voters who won’t gain any representation ”

    Yes another fraudulent election campaign and the usual suspects of the NZLP pretending to be something they arent.

    At least ACT is honest about its intentions and who it represents.

    https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2022/06/23/rmt-general-secretary-mick-lynch-left-a-trail-of-stunned-establishment-hacks-in-his-wake-this-week/

  17. A spy tells me Labour is failing to get campaign donations: Their major donors have abandoned them. ACT and National by comparison are flush with cash.
    Figure that into your calculations.

  18. Labour is going to need to head further left if they are to pick up the votes they need to win.
    They did a bunch of reviews on poverty and disability and have sat on the results ever since.
    People have had enough, all they see now is National wearing red.
    Add on how badly they shafted cannabis users in favour of business was icing on the cake.

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