Recent articles have discussed the battle for Severodonetsk and how it could fit into both sides’ wider strategy. The Ukrainians using the battle for the city to ‘fix’ a large Russian force in the east. Letting the Russian’s wear themselves down attacking an easily defended position and reducing their forces available so that they are unable to defend in the north-east or the south. The Russians on the other hand trying furiously to take the city so that they can declare ‘victory’ and start negotiations that will give them strategic room to manoeuvre.
The fight for Severodonetsk, continues amid reports that the Russians are sending more troops to the area. The front arcs in a semi-circle from Izyum in the north for about 150km to Poposna in the south. The Ukrainians inside the semi-circle are holding and the Russians have not been able to find a way to out flank Severodonetsk or to make an indirect approach. Each Russian advance is met with Ukrainian counter attacks. It seems that the Ukrainians are currently setting the tempo of the operation, drawing the Russians into a damaging fight for Severodonetsk. The Russians continue to commit to this battle that from a military standpoint has little value.
In the south, the Ukrainian offensive is still slowly gaining ground between Mykolaiv and Kherson. The offensive is big, the Ukrainians advancing on a front about 70km long spreading the Russian defenders and looking for a weak spot that can be used to encircle the Russians near Kherson. It is possible that the Ukrainians will turn the Russian’s north flank and advance from the north and west towards Kherson. At this time their forces are fast approaching artillery range of Kherson. Likewise, in the north Ukraine is also attacking near Kharkov. Recently, the Russians made small moves from Izyum trying to push south towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and it is likely that this offensive is a counter to that activity, forcing the Russians to defend rather that to attack.
Although there is little movement ‘on the ground’ there is a certainly escalation as pressure from on both sides’ mounts. The Russians trying to take Severdonetsk, the Ukrainians using this battle to attrit the Russians and looking to attack elsewhere either to draw forces away or looking for a weakness that they can exploit.
International commentators are noting the situation too, on 7 June 2022, Professor Michael Clarke, a well-respected defence analyst and retired director of the Royal United Services Institute stated that the Ukrainians were ‘pinning the Russians’ at Sverodonetsk. At the same time General David Petraeus, ex-director of the CIA and a commander of note, stated that he thought the Ukrainian operations in the north and south may signal a larger operation to pin the Russian ‘centre’ at Severodonetsk then, turn a flank and get behind their defences. His assessment was that if the Ukrainians could get behind the Russian front lines then they had the potential to re-capture large areas.
This commentary, from highly credible reviewers adds weight to the theory that the Ukrainians are fighting to larger plan. Using the battle of Severodonetsk as an opportunity to hold the Russians in place, attrit them and then move to offensive operations. In fact, today the Institute for the Study of War described the battle as follows “Ukrainian forces are continuing to conduct a flexible defense of Severodonetsk and are likely focusing on inflicting high casualties on Russian personnel rather than seeking to hold the entire city”. Previously, media commentary was that Russia was winning and that Severodontesk would collapse. It is still not certain that this won’t happen but it is becoming more credible that this battle is being orchestrated as part of a larger Ukrainian plan.
The big question is when can the Ukrainians transition to offensive operations? The answer to this question is related to international aid, most specifically artillery. In previous articles we have discussed the infantryman in detail, because Russia is running out of them. This means the Russians are trying to win battles with artillery by smashing cities and defensive positions into rubble. It is likely that the Russians would have pounded cities into rubble even if they had lots of infantry because massive use of artillery is part of both their own and their Soviet predecessor’s doctrine. However, at this point in the campaign with so few infantry their only realistic option is to demolish any area that can be easily defended because they need to minimise the loss of their remaining infantry.
The term artillery describes all long-range weapon systems and includes:
- Tube artillery; big guns or mortars that have barrels. The tube artillery used in this war mostly fires approximately 40-50kg shells to ranges of about 20-30km. Taking Auckland for example, tube artillery firing from the CBD could shell Manukau, Drury, Albany or Silverdale.
- Rocket artillery; includes both Multiple Launch Rocket Systems that fire lots of smaller rockets and large single rocket launchers. Rocket artillery has a longer range and does more damage; however it cannot persistently shell an area like tube artillery can. The Soviet era Multiple Launch Rocket Systems being used in Ukraine at the moment can hit targets between 25-90km away. The older systems have shorter ranges, roughly 25-30km. However, more the modern Smerch system firing from the Auckland CBD could bombard Huntly in the south or Mangawhai in the north.
Artillery is a powerful weapon able to switch its fire almost immediately to engage any target within range. Its impact is devastating, soldiers that are not ‘dug in’ stand little chance, tanks and armoured vehicles can be destroyed and logistic bases crushed. If a target can be seen, it can be hit. Artillery weapons have long ranges and hit targets they cannot see themselves, so armies send observers forward to locate targets, use drones, spot fire from helicopters and use radar to locate enemy units. If the Ukrainians are going to transition to offensive operations, they need to win the artillery battle, otherwise every time they concentrate their forces to attack, they will be smashed by Russian artillery.
Winning the artillery battle relies on a military tactic called ‘counter-battery fire’. This term refers to artillery hunting down and destroying other artillery. The ‘Gunners’ (artillery soldiers) chase their opponents across the battlefield using a detailed system of intelligence reporting from the front-line, their own observers on the ground, aerial observers (including drones) and radar. Over time, an intelligence picture is developed allowing them to target and destroy enemy artillery.
Key advantages in the counter battery battle are range and digital communications. If your artillery outranges the enemy, you can stay out of their range and still engage the enemy’s without worrying about return fire. Communicating digitally allows artillery to ‘talk’ almost instantaneously with observers, shortening the time between a target being identified and it being fired on. In the counter battery battle, speed of response is vital because artillery will ‘shoot and scoot’, firing then moving quickly to avoid return fire.
Ukraine is receiving large artillery donations from other NATO members including:
- More than 100 modern, light weight, modern, towed M777 medium guns from the United States, Canada and Australia. Long-ranged sophisticated weapons.
- Donations of undisclosed numbers of towed FH70 medium artillery guns from Italy, Estonia and probably the United Kingdom.
- Norway, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia are sending older self-propelled guns. Total numbers have not been disclosed but at least 40 are confirmed. Czech Republic is also sending older Soviet era Multiple Launch Rocket Systems.
- An important donation is France’s twelve, modern CAESAR self-propelled guns that with Netherlands and Germany’s small but significant donation of twelve very long range Panzerhaubtize 2000 self-propelled guns provides digitally enabled, very mobile counter battery systems. Panzerhaubitze 2000 has a range of 40-67km. Both systems have a ‘burst fire’ capability allowing them to fire salvos of shells very quickly then move away while the shells are airborne. A very useful feature that makes them harder to target.
Currently, Ukraine is receiving and starting to put into action a pool of modern artillery augmenting their large existing pool of Soviet era-artillery. Donations of digitally enabled self-propelled guns and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems are particularly important because these systems are fast moving and have digital communications that allow almost instantaneous transfer of target locations from counter battery radars to the guns.
And with regards to this battle, the most important donations are likely to be counter battery radars from the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. Although barely mentioned in the media, these devices are vital for building Ukraine’s ability to fight Russia’s artillery. Counter battery radars monitor the battlefield and a spot the trajectory of artillery shells in the air. Then they use this information to calculate exactly where the shells were fired from, then that target location is provided to friendly artillery who fire back. Modern digitally enabled weapons can data-link to their supporting radar performing these operations almost instantaneously. This link can mean that seconds after a Russian artillery unit fires, its location can be transmitted to a Ukrainian artillery unit allowing little or no time for the Russian unit to get away.
Winning the counter battery battle is a pre-requisite for offensive operations against the Russians and destroying their artillery or forcing it to become less effective as it ‘shoots and scoots’ is an important step without which the Ukrainians will find it difficult to transition to offensive operations. The new weapons systems and radars arriving in Ukraine will help and there is already footage of donated weapons in action.
In summary, although there is little territory being exchanged between the sides there is certainly escalation as Russia feeds resources into the battle around Severodonetsk. On the other side Ukraine is either desperately holding on; or fixing the Russians, forcing them to commit resources at Severodonetsk while they look for weakness elsewhere and an opportunity to ‘turn a flank’ and get behind the Russians. Artillery and NATO supplying it is such a prominent topic of conversation amongst commentators and politicians because this weapon is a key factor in this escalation. The Russians need to maintain artillery supremacy, without that they have nothing. If Ukraine wants to win the war and regain territory it needs to win the counter battery battle.
The key question is whether the international community’s commitment to collective security and Ukraine’s rights under international law continues, helping Ukraine build this capability? Or will politicians, procrastinate and falter? Either way it reminds the world that Mao’s pragmatic view that ‘political power comes from the barrel of a gun’ has some weight, so it is vital that members of the international community who believe in the rule of law, continue to put artillery in Ukrainian hands rather than letting the man with more guns define ‘right’ with ‘might’.
Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.
Given the tempo of the war and the almost singular focus of Russia on levelling everything they see, whether they will reach a point in the next few months where they are reduced to throwing rocks.
I know the Russian stock pile of artillery and artillery shells is the stuff of legends, but I wonder if that legend is based on a myth just like much of the rest of their military.
Jays – Or your military intelligence?
military intelligence is an oxymoron…jays is…….well I’ll leave that to you
If you or the author knew even a little about the reality on the ground in the Donbass you wouldn’t make all the stupid comments which only confirm your complete ignorance about Ukraine.
Oh yawn.
You are one of those special breeds who still believe Russia have 20 thousand serviceable tanks.
You really are dreaming Ben.
But thanks for the comedy articles.
Ukraine is a proxy war. The Ukrainians are being sacrificed by USA/UK/Europe, so they don’t have to get their hands dirty.
Ukraine will be defended to the last Ukrainian, in an attempt to try and kill off some Russians and to have a ‘practice war’ to see how ‘new’ weapons and tactics ‘work out’ nowaday.
Usually this is done in Africa, Middle East etc, so we happily sit back and swallow our western propaganda medias B.S. But because this is the bad guy-Russia and it’s blonde, blue eyed Ukrainians, we are bombarded with ‘B.S’.
How wrong and how often does the propaganda media and Ben have to be, before ‘you’ stop giving them any credibility?
Wake up and smell the roses. Russia have already won this. They are just ‘mopping-up’. Their battle plan, is slowly slowly and with as little collateral damage as possible. …..I bet Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemem, Somalia etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc, wished the USA (and its poodles) followed that strategy, when illegally starting yet another war.
The Russians will take all access to the Black sea and parts of Ukraine they feel they need for security against NATO, that is no longer (and for many decades) a defence organisation. It is PURELY a USA puppet to advance its empire needs/wants/desires. Remeber NATO ageed in writing not to advance if the Soviet empire was ended?
‘Might is right’ is still appropriate, 150+ yrs later, Mr Bismarck.
I’m in NO WAY, claiming Putin/Russia are good. They are as BAD as the west, they’re just NOT as good or fast as killing and destroying ‘their enermy’ as we are, and they feel they have less enermies so are less active.
But because they’re winning this particular proxy war, the attention is on their bad deeds and NOT the usual western bad deeds.
Just go back to2000 and see all the terror, damage, carnage, murder that the USA empire and its lackies have done to the world.
‘Those in glass houses should not throw stones’…… Unless they have a massive 90+% controlled propaganda media to hide their sins……????
Be interesting to have defined what “Russia have already won this” actually means.
Does it include having a puppet regime, to rule Ukraine, installed in Kyiv?
Does it mean civilian control in the total Ukrainian (from Poland to the Black Sea?) occupied territories?
Just what has Russia “won”?
Nick J and now Kevin claim the Russians have “won” and the simple action to “mop up” Ukrainian armed forces is underway. And then what will occur? Military occupation to maintain control soaking up some 2 million plus troops (total Russian reserves).
One thing to occupy and militarily control small population (5 million or less) such as in Chechnya or Georgia. Quite another to occupy and pacify a state with 40 million occupants. WW2 history shows the Germans never had enough troops (13.6 million in uniform over 5 years) to control the occupied countries plus fight expansion, and later the defensive, battles. Ukrainians will fight a (similarly to what the German occupied territories did in WW2) a partisan war of liberation. That partisan war will spill over into Russia like the Chechen first and second wars did. Bombings in Moscow?
Russia will be fighting the “won” war for the next 20 odd years until Ukraine is once more a free country. Are the Russian people ready for that? Is Putin’s successor ready to do that?
Currently they do not have the numbers for a two front war. The break away republics are where they are concentrating their effort. No reserves and material left for a second front to push towards Odessa.
The best the Russians can hope for is the “liberate” the two break away republics plus hold Crimea. And then face continuing conflict to hold and control those territories.
Geopolitically this is not a USA led war. Sure they are providing hardware but this is primarily a NATO and EU war against Russian colonisation westwards. This leaves the USA free to concentrate on Chinese expansion eastwards. There is considerable doubt that China will see Russia as a potent and reliable ally in the future. More like a subservient cash cow for resources that only China will buy at very low rates (being Russia’s only customer).
Worth a read;
https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-russia-more-complicated-than-you-think/
It’s not finished that is obvious.
Ukraine is being comprehensively defeated, nothing will change that unless Russia decides to pack up and go home. They are not doing that.
What Russia has fought for they will keep for good.
Everyday is more the map will change, for good.
Saint Zelenski is finished politically and has thrown his military under the bus.
And he is probably a Nazi.
Good summary Gerrit.
You are correct that Ukrainians are being used as meat for the grinder in order to bleed Russia dry.
However, where you are wrong is overestimating Russia’s ability to sustain a war of attrition.
As Russia runs their stockpiles dry, Ukraine are constantly being resupplied by the West.
The supply of arms will cost the West circa $150 Billion and the rebuild will bring that bill to $500 – $600 Billion. The West will consider that a bargain to effectively neuter Russia. Do keep in mind Russia is facing a demographic catastrophe that is being worsened by this war.
So from the West’s point of view, this war is a goldmine.
“Three girls to every guy”
OK, let’s wait and see.
I’ve been unambiguous with my comments and predictions.
Russia has NOT remotely committed too much of its resources, either personnel or equipment. And as per the cost, they’re making a fortune with the increase in Oil prices, and the Gas/Oil in the Donbass and Black Sea will MORE than make up for todays costs.
The west has almost, and still might bankrupt itself and (WORRYINGLY) collapse into hyper inflation.
The west make bugger all, so their economies are based on stealing (re: empire) or financial fiddles.
Remember UNLIKE the CRUEL war strategies of the West, Russia (still CRUELY) slowly grind down the armies, of their opponents, so when the armies are exhausted and beaten, they COLLAPSE. UNLIKE where ever the west goes. So they’re be minisule Ukraining army left over to blend into society and cause/start ‘gorilla/commando’ wars.
Let’s see how this plays out.
But Russia will occupy what it wants, Ukraine will be exhausted and incapable of putting up much restistance. You can see the west are already looking for ways out of this and the propaganda media are already playing the blame game, to cover this their NEXT loss.
And the fickle minded western world will move onto the next ‘media short term attention issue’.
This is how Russia and China win. They play the long game, not the political/media/fantacy game.
All of course IMHO.
Be interesting the resolve of the Russian people if and when Putin keels over. Will they want to continue the Putin’s quest replicate what Peter The Great did and return Russia to soviet era boundaries? Who will the new leader be?
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2022/06/russian-president-vladimir-putin-reportedly-required-urgent-medical-assistance-after-being-struck-down-by-sharp-sickness.html
“This is how Russia and China win.”
Actually; this is how China wins. Russia being on side is nor required by China. Do they care if Russia beat itself to a pulp in the fight with NATO and the EU? China is not interested in what Russia DOES, it is only interested in the resources that Russia HAS. It can get those without Russia’s involvement.
That link I sent earlier is worth the read in full. China does not need Russia, It only needs the undefended resources Russia has. Geopolitically Russia means nothing to the Chinese. China is Russia’s fair weather friend.
Worth a read;
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/was-china-betting-on-russian-defeat-all-along/
“Russia was said to have amassed 60% of its conventional ground arsenal on the border of Ukraine, and this rate has only risen since then. If such a momentous effort by Russia continues with such high losses, the Russian military will be a mere shell of its former self by the end, not to mention the damage done to Russia’s economy by the sanctions. Such a weakened Russia, isolated from the West, would have little choice but to ally itself with China on whatever terms the latter demands. This would provide China with a committed and docile strategic ally, and with access to the natural resources of Siberia.”
Notice that Belarus is moving their tanks, armour and artillery eastwards away from the Ukrainian border and into Russia. Bolstering Russia’s dwindling stock of material? If Belarus was to depose their Putin allied leader, it would make Putin’s task even harder. Effectively Belarus is no longer in the war with Ukraine.
Putin is sabre rattling in regards the NATO members in the Baltic. That will bring NATO fully into conflict with Russia (one for ALL and ALL for one). Big gamble.
Jays – my advice is to stop playing the optimistic armchair expert. If the armchair gets pulled out, you will look silly.
None of us know what the outcome will be, given the mixture of lies and truth we are getting from both sides. BOTH sides, I said, Jays.
Hi Ivan
D’oh, Homer.
Z
Hell.
Imagine if Iraq got this sort of wishful support from “good people” who believe in the “rule of law”.
Instead, our regime sent troops to help the American occupiers occupy Afghanistan and Iraq.
When even the Guardian is doubting a Ukrainian victory
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/ukraine-casualty-rate-russia-war-tipping-point
To add another perspective, less rosy for Ukraine and lacking the high faluting “value” judgements
try Military Summary, which includes maps with helpful geographic features.
Ben started off seeming to be even handed and neutral in his analysis, increasingly , he’s using emotive language and showing a clear bias, preferring western info (mis), when he’d do better to read more widely
Also, time to stop framing this war as between Russia and Ukraine, and admitting it’s between Russia plus DPR,LPR against Nato, Ukraine, and the collective west.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXLde0bjGUI
I do notice a butt saving “but time will tell”hedge betting creeping in
Artillery is effective when used for military purposes, as the Russians have used it in their continuing success against the Zelensky regime.
But shooting more rounds at civilian cities in Donetsk and Luhansk, the only thing the Zelensky regime uses its artillery for, won’t make a difference. Those attacks are the reason Russia’s there to help liberate the republics in the first place.
A good assessment Ben. Definitely a nerdy nerd of the highest order, well done!
Two questions are rattling around in my poor old imperialist brain:
You are quite correct, artillery is key to both sides. The western wunderwaffen certainly have the potential to be significant but promises and pledges are not the same as guns in the field:
How many of these advanced units (guns, specialised ammo, radar, rockets, etc) are being used right now by Ukraine in the field?
This war clearly has still a long play out left but if we fast-forward to its best conclusion for Ukraine where the Soviet… sorry, where Russia has been pushed back to its original borders, before the occupation of Crimea and the Donbas:
How defendable, from Ukraine’s perspective, are those borders?
Militarily speaking (topography etc) some small changes in either direction of the border might make for a better defence strategy for Ukraine, now knowing that the Soviets… sorry, that Russia is going to be a military threat to them (and Poland, and the Baltic states) for a long time to come.
Good stuff Ben. Well worth reading.
If Russia takes Donbass then we should Nuke Moscow. Those quiet, complacent Russians can feel the pain they are happy to ignore in Ukraine.
How dumb and one-eyed can one get? No fighting or slaughter by either side in the Donbas since 2014?
Don’t hesitate to explain your silly rant, Slobber generator, but please show evidence of having looked into the background for all this.
They need an army to fire those big guns, Ben.
And they need constant supply lines and repair shops and food and ammo in the face of attrition,
to feed them.
The idea agencies of ‘the international community’ orchestrating this terror, had human rights and responsibilities in mind as they began it in 2014; is counter factual.
And reported signs those agents are beginning exit strategies from it; do not add to your argument.
Russian gains in Donbass, where western Intelligence admits Ukraine is massively outgunned, has Ukraine suffering heavy losses -quoted at 200 kia per day – plus desertions; this gives scant comfort to britprop narratives and as the rouble again strengthens, criticism of sanctions grow.
These comments are first class better than some retired officers on youtube. I look forward to your posts every week. Ukraine will win in the end, Russia cant sustain the war with the avalanche of military help the Ukrainians are getting. The population of Ukraine is 40 mill and they could easy form a million man army not including females but who can fight just as well. So lets say a 1.25mill army is quite feasible but will take time to train.
You are right counter artillery batteries will win this war a lot faster.
Hi Boris.
Z
hahhahahahhahahaha.
Want to bet on it?
Great post Ben.
Keep it up!
if the ukrainian forces are decimated it doesn’t matter what fancy toys we send them.
God, how awful are dictators. How beautiful is democracy.
Where would you rather live, then?
Oh god it’s another Kherson counter offensive using conscripts and towed artillery after last weeks supposed coup against Putin failed.
‘ An Uncomfortable Fact Must Now be Confronted’
Matthew Ehret, writing in ‘theduran’.
“It is an uncomfortable fact of history that those same powers that gave rise to fascism were never punished at the Nuremburg Trials. Those Wall Street industrialists and financiers that supplied Germany with funding and supplies before and during the war were not punished… nor were the British financiers at the Bank of England who ensured that Nazi coffers would be replete with confiscated loot from Austria, Czechoslovakia or Poland.
The post-war age not only saw a vast re-organization of fascist killers in the form of the CIA/NATO managed Operation Gladio and we know that Allan Dulles directly oversaw the re-activation of Hitler’s intelligence chief Reinhard Gehlen into the command structure of West German Intelligence along with his entire network. Ukrainian Nazis like Stefan Bandera and Mikola Lebed were promptly absorbed into this same apparatus with Bandera working with Gehlen from 1956 to his death in 1958 while Lebed was absorbed into American intelligence running a CIA front organization called Prolog.
As Cynthia Chung recently outlined in her ‘Sleepwalking into Fascism’ that no less than ten high level former Nazis enjoyed vast power within NATO’s command structure during the dark years of Operation Gladio. Cynthia writes: “From 1957 to 1983, NATO had at least one if not several high ranking “former” Nazis in full command of multiple departments within NATO… The position of NATO Commander and Chief of Allied Forces Central Europe (CINCENT Commander in Chief, Allied Forces Central Europe – AFCENT) was a position that was filled SOLELY by “former” Nazis for 16 YEARS STRAIGHT, from 1967-1983.”
During these years, not only did Gladio ‘stay behinds’ arrange a stream of terrorism against the general population of Europe using nominally ‘Marxist’ front groups or carrying out hits of high value targets like Dag Hammarskjold, Enrico Mattei, Aldo Moro or Alfred Herrhausen when needed. Statesmen who did not play by the rules of the Great Game were sadly not long for this world.”
“Why did NATO post images of a Ukrainian soldier clearly brandishing a Thule-society black sun of the occult on her uniform in honour of ‘Women’s’ Day’ this year? Why are active Ukrainian Nazis serving in Azov, and Aidar battalions systemically glossed over by NATO propaganda outlets or mainstream media despite the proven cases of mass atrocities in East Donbass since 2014? Why are Nazi movements seeing a vast revival across East European space- especially within countries that have come under the influence of NATO since the Soviet Union’s collapse? Is it possible that the war we thought the allies won in 1945 was merely a battle within a larger war for civilization whose outcome yet remains to be seen? Certainly patriots of Finland and Sweden should think very deeply about the dark traditions which risk being revived as they join into a new Operation Barbarossa in the 21st century.”
Matthew Ehret.
good detailed and authoritative piece remo
I would only add with EU/NATO expansion south and east the germans pretty much have achieved ‘plan ost’
now having done that peacefully rather than by war may or may not be a good thing(in economic terms I think it is)
Well Ben, its a week later, are the Ukrainians winning? No, its a resounding defeat. Nuff said.
General Sir Patrick Sanders, who assumed command of the British army last Monday, has ordered the British army to be prepared to fight WWIII against a continental power.
As I have remarked before, WWIII will not be fought with nuclear weapons.
18 million died in WWI, 63 million died in WWII, with modern conventional weapons at least triple that number will die in WWIII
The question is this;
If Poland with the help of the British Expeditionary Force could have driven back the Nazi advance, would this have prevented WWII?
If Ukraine with Western support can defeat the Russian Federation advance, can this prevent WWIII?
https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/fight-in-europe-army-chiefs-fresh-wwiii-warning-amid-russianukraine-war/news-story/2ba0d8e02d7aa39c3149123bce1d6856
To paraphrase Sir Humphrey, “He would say that wouldn’t he”. Or maybe General Melchard in Blackadder is more appropriate comparison.
The worrying thing for Europe is that the heads of state have deferred to NATO and the Pentagon for foreign policy. The heads of state clearly have no independence of US imperial rule, they are mere vassals.
Their dereliction of duty to their nations interests and their deferral to military rather than political dialogue is very worrisome. This is what will drag them into war.
I’d contend Russia has signalled to Europe keep well away, take your missiles off our borders. Cuba 1962 v2. At the same time the West has tried to wreck them economically. The answer has been devastating to Germany in particular. So to be really cynical and realistic as I believe Russia is why go West? Its a basket case with too few resources, too little food, not enough energy. Apart from US nukes it doesn’t pose a threat. Russia no longer cares, it is focused East and South. British generals are mere midges for swatting.