The only poll likely for the Tauranga by-election is fascinating and in this race there are a whole bunch of different possible wins worth looking at as we attempt to dissect the result for the wider electorate in the 2023 election.
Tauranga has had an explosion of growth as Aucklanders with mullets were finally forced out of the city limits to restart their lives in Tauranga.
It likes to see itself as optimistic, dynamic and future focused, crime and the heaviness of the gang violence weighs heavily here. Aspiration in Tauranga matters and heavy gang shit really clashes against that optimism.
WINNERS:
National – This electorate shouldn’t even be in play, the fact that Simon Bridges had a run for his money in the 2020 election and had his huge majority slashed so aggressively showed how much Jacinda had won over hearts and minds. This nothing nobody that the National Party has farted out as a candidate is a nothing nobody, the same sort of sausage factory of political foreskins that made Matt King a candidate in Northland. To date all he’s burped up is some bullshit idea to stop gang members driving in packs, which will never work and won’t ever become law.
Labour – They won’t be unhappy with Jan’s 21.9% here. This is Blue, blue, blue country. We call provincial electorates like this Smurf Town because National could run a dead sheep as their candidate and locals will still elect it. If labour walk out of this by-election with that result they will be skipping! It shows the 45+ women vote that poured into Labour is still holding solid and if Labour receive an MMP vote in these blue electorates anywhere close to 20% then they will be looking at low 40s on election night.
ACT – There is a real opportunity here for ACT to shine and David Seymour is touring the electorate dragging anyone he can into campaign videos. Seymour is probably the most recognisable political figure in Tauranga and he’s in it to win it. If ACT can get a double figure result then that’s a win.
Apathy – 31% don’t know who to vote for. That’s an enormous percentage of the electorate who have yet to make up their minds
LOSERS:
NZ First – By not running, Winston has flinched and shown NZFirst don’t have the money to launch a campaign and that he’s preserving all his energy for his last gasp in next years election.
Māori Party – By refusing to stand because ‘everyone is racist’, is a political cowardice that would have shamed the Māori Battalion. Imagine going to war to ensure Māori rights and stand up for democracy only to have your decedents too frightened to participate.
Dumb Lives Matter – The political head injury that is Sue Grey has 3.4% which is all the Dumb Lives Matter anti-vaxx vote which is surprisingly solid when you consider how batshit lunatic fringe many are.
Parochial Lives Matter – Andrew Hollis having an equally strong 3.9% is a reminder of how parochial Tauranga is.
PREDICTIONS:
National should win this by-election with their eyes closed, and ultimately that’s all that matters, but apathy from the electorate could make that win a bruised eye if they don’t win convincingly. The high level of don’t knows plus the feral Dumb Lives Matter electorate plus Labour’s enduring support from 45+ women they won over in 2020 plus ACT’s rise amongst males all combine to make this a by-election with far more riding on it than there should be.
If there is some terrible crime event in the next 2 weeks in Tauranga, expect the candidate who can promise public flogging too get a surge on Election Day.
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With Labour and National in a fight to the death as to who can stick to the neo liberal script lines the best, and apart from crime, be indistinguishable, The Apathy Party may well come from behind and feature in the places come race day.
If National polls >50% its game over for 2023. There are (like all cities) pockets of lower income voters, teachers, council workers, bus drivers etc that live in Tauranga therefore Labour should be polling in the 30s if they want to survive.
The Greens vote has also dived well below their national average therefore team left is below 25% that is 75% of an electorate with an urban feel that ain’t voting for you. It will be worse in provincial seats.
National vote will be bigger after Luxon’s announcement today . Increase in benefits and no privatization. That compares with Little blaming the nurses for the protracted pay settlement the government still determined to steal our water control.
Non of the above Party (Apathy) – 31% don’t see the difference between most of these people and thus have no on really to vote for.
And that vote will probably grow as that sentiment of non – representation is growing. Find a person with charisma who can give a good korero and see it go boom. And it is to the shame of all the above mentioned other then ACT that no one cares about these voters enough to even consider campaigning for them. Go figure.
“Towel–Wronga” is hardly a ‘bell weather’ seat. It is a sickly white enclave of petit bourgeois, try hard SMEs, lawn mowing rounds, grumpy tory pensioners and those that could not make it elsewhere.
A shagged sheep could be the natzo candidate and win.
Keep believing that and 2023 will be all the worse for you. The demographics of Tauranga have changed markedly over the past 10 years as the development of Papamoa and outlying suburbs have created NZ’s fifth largest urban center. Certainly not the bellweather seat although for a governing party 21% of the vote ain’t a great result regardless of the seat.
that’d be good IF you could trust fester as far as you can spit him.
Jan Tinetti got more votes in the 2017 election in Tauranga than the 21.9 % she is polling here. I think that is a better comparison than the 2020 election.
Jan got 37% in 2020 and labour 42% of the party vote. If she gets 21% it’s a disaster for labour
It could be that 21% is a triumph. It could be Tinetti doesn’t get that high
They look like 2017 polling numbers to me where the parties were, National 54%, Lab 26%. That was against nationwide National 44%(-10% v Tauranga), Lab 38%(+12% v Tauranga).
Thought that this was an absolutely hilarious article and showed just how much Martyn Bradbury dislikes National.