Do Kiwis understand how bad things are going to get economically?

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
80
2746

Brad Olsen says a recession is ‘somewhat inevitable’ but hopes it’s ‘short and sharp’

A leading economist says a recession is “somewhat inevitable” for the New Zealand economy. 

It comes as house prices continue to fall throughout May, with the trend towards weaker housing market conditions likely to continue, CoreLogic said.

The official cash rate (OCR) reached its highest level since 2016 after the Reserve Bank raised it to 2 percent, up 50 basis points, in the face of 30-year-high inflation. 

Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen told AM on Wednesday even though unemployment is at record low levels, he thinks a recession is “somewhat inevitable”.

“A recession does seem somewhat inevitable for the New Zealand economy and the hope really has to be it’s a short, sharp recession and we don’t see that sort of economic scaring, a long term hit that we usually associate with recession,” he told AM Early host Bernadine Oliver-Kerby.

I don’t think we are appreciating the magnitude of economic damage coming our way.

We were looking at 3.9% OCR by 2024.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

That’s been revised to 4.5% this time next year.

The full impact of the economic implosion from the war in Ukraine has not hit us yet. Putin’s submission hold won’t be fully felt until December and seeing as that war is now predicted to continue through until next year, if you think inflation is bad now, you ain’t seen nuthin yet.

Put the war alongside a zero covid policy in China that could be triggered any time a new outbreak occurs, you have global supply chains that are broken and simply can’t mend.

Even if Putin’s own take him out or he dies from an illness, those taking over will still be left with the existential weakening of Russia. He has set a path towards war and destabilising the global system of rules based governance that empowers the West so fruitfully. They will have no choice but to double down.

The use of a nuclear battlefield nuke to terrify NATO and the Ukraine into submission grows by the day.

In China, their poor vaccine knockoffs are not as strong as the Western versions and the authoritarianism used to force control even the affluent in the cities is causing enormous economic harm and social damage. Their zero tolerance of Covid means any time it pops up in China, they lock down. This at a time of global geopolitical posturing in the South Pacific and their support of Russia while they eye Taiwan.

The current lock downs causing vast bottlenecks at Chinese Ports and strangling off global supply chains hurts the West as much as it does China, but it also provides the Communist Party vast power over a domestic population they are increasingly becoming afraid of and that could easily justify an external war for nationalism.

To put it simply, the things making life so tough right now are far more likely to become vastly worse by December.

What is the Government’s response? David Clarke has threatened the Shopping Duopoly with a wet bus ticket and promised slaps on wrists.

Y-e-a-h.

The sea is still rushing away from the shore at this stage as the tsunami crests the horizon.

We face the economic turmoil of a global economy that has printed $25Trillion dollars since 2008 to prevent an international economic meltdown which has artificially created the lowest interest rates for 5000 years!

You have to go back to fucking Mesopotamia for interest rates this low!

I don’t have a PHD in monetary theory, but I’m not sure raising interest rates that gives all that debt gravity as a means to slow spending will counter inflation if it’s being driven by Supply side dynamics, not Demand side dynamics.

Halting the speed of money flow is counter productive if Kiwis don’t have any money to start with. Prices are skyrocketing because of international inflationary pressures exacerbated by a global financial market pumped full of printed money. If Supply side dynamics are driving the inflation, cutting back consumer spending will tilt the economy into a steep recession, which will quickly become a depression when prices continue to climb because of scarcity.

The domestic response to this economic pain? An explosion of crime, explosion of desperation, explosion of domestic violence, explosion of poverty and a very real threat of political terrorism in this country.

Look, maybe I’m wrong. Maybe there can be peace in Ukraine tomorrow, all the infrastructure damage replaced at record speed and China won’t see another Covid infection and all that printed money bounces back and the global economy steams ahead cheerfully.

Maybe.

B-U-T I think that’s highly unlikely.

We are facing geopolitical shockwave after geopolitical shockwave, these are unique times that risk enormous Black Swan events the ramifications of which are incredibly dangerous.

I do not believe that you are ready for this Jelly.

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80 COMMENTS

  1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6Zb_AvxT8g

    In full: Former BoE Governor warns of a “very unpleasant period” ahead – YouTube

    Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King blames central banks for fuelling the cost of living crisis by printing too much money during the pandemic.

    30 minutes of lucid, eloquent plain English.

        • Well you certainly aren’t.
          No I just add balance to pathetic bias posts
          Quite often agree to balanced posts but once I see pathetic posts like Cabbage and Bob, they cannot go unchallenged.
          You have a problem with that, or do you fall into the same category?

          • I’ve just had a Nat pamphlet delivered in which Luxon is quoted as ‘building a society for all Kiwis”. Yeah, well I’m not a flightless bird, for a start. But ALL New Zealanders? Be honest Chris and say “well-off New Zealanders”.
            Then, same person says ” I get things done. It’s what I built my career on…” Yeah? Ask all those NZers who live in rural towns and cities where you cut their flights to zero.
            Word are cheap, Mr LotO!
            I, for one, seriously fear for well over half of my fellow citizens if the NatAct get into power next year. All Martyn’s predictions of doom and gloom will become reality more quickly for the majority of NZers. Some may not be delirious with what is happening at present; but change to the unsqueezed wealthy class to govern us and you will be much worse off than your worst nightmare of today.

        • What’s biased about pointing out the basis of what is a stupid, and insulting “analysis”? “Labour Government most certainly don’t understand” ..And what is it that they don’t understand? and what intellectual basis is this statement based on? Add to that the fact that this sort of assumption is the staple of the reactionary, bigoted, and ignorant rump that still worships the colonial usurpers that have nothing but exploitation economics masquerading as “civilised behavior” to prove their “superiority” to anything, and anyone else.. Pure arrogance and greed are what our own bible tells us is evil… To be defending that idiocy by attacking anyone who puts the lie to that fantasy denotes a mediocre mind that lacks the depth to see past their own limitations… This country was sold out by the Key government, and has been left defenseless against the barbarity of those on the other side of the world… That defines rank stupidity, and disloyalty… To defend such traitorous behavior is to expose ones own lack of loyalty to ones own countrymen/women.. Shame on you…

    • https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/468238/acting-prime-minister-grant-robertson-defends-attack-ad-

      From that article, Cluxon blathered “how you unblock things like immigration settings, removing bureaucracy…..”
      So we can divine that National intends to have unmitigated immigration (house price inflation, more pressure on infrastructure, and undercutting Kiwi’s wages) and cuts to the Public Service (as if health, education, firefighting/Police/ambulance services aren’t under enough pressure).
      And “strengthening……….New Zealand’s contributions to Ukraine” – which means they want to drag us further into war!!

      And you Bob, are trying to sell the ridiculous notion that National knows better! Take your blue blinkers off.
      Cluxon is trying to outdo Seymour on whose policies can tank the NZ economy the fastest. God help us all.

  3. Martyn ……It will be ok…a few hugs will sort it…Thankfully we have the likes of David Clark and the Ormsby family to guide us through these troubled times…..a few huis and poo fairy’s will be needed , but we will get there…Labour are in charge , and with backing from the greens we will sort it….Good news is National and ACT are in opposition so Labour have a majority to be decisive , robust and proactive….With all the talent and skills the Labour Party have at their disposal I have complete faith in them….Just look at their past record of achievements…

  4. ” Even if Putin’s own take him out or he dies from an illness, those taking over will still be left with the existential weakening of Russia. He has set a path towards war and destabilising the global system of rules based governance that empowers the West so fruitfully. They will have no choice but to double down. ” Russia is not being existentially weakened rather it’s the E.U. vassals of the U$$ who are doomed to stagnation as Russia’s vital supplies of energy and minerals are lost to them. It’s the U$ and its NATO offensive pest who have brokeb the rules based order that Russia has always upheld.
    1. The U$$ and NATO promised not to move further east on the dissolution of the Soviet block and freedom of E.Germany That promise binding in International law was broke.
    2. The Minsk agreements to give the Donbass autonomy within Ukraine and restore peace and amity were reneged on by the Nazified UKR government with the o.k. and complicity of the E.U. resulting in the shelling of the free republics for 8 years with a hostile line of contact murdering thousands.
    3. Since 2014 the U$$ and NATO have been pouring in arms and training to the UKR to enable a bigger war.
    4. Recently Russia virtually begged the west to come to the table to agree a new security framework for all. They were treated with contempt and disdain.
    5. The neocon criminals in Washington have an open objective to war on Russia to disable and weaken and render it helpless as in the Yeltsin years.
    Clearly its NATO and the U$$ that despises rules based order re: Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya

    • I think you might have missed that with the fall of the Soviet Union in the non proliferation treaty Russia also agreed to respect the independent sovereignty of Ukraine, which Ukrainians voted for. Also the pouring in arms and training in 2014? Hasn’t Obama been roundly rebuked for not doing that? Yes he supplied cash but he decided against providing arms.

      I am not defending the US and NATO but making Russia out to be all sweetness and light is a bit hard to take

      • “Sovereignty.” is not a license to do what ever a country likes. Ukraine should have remembered that; win or lose, it is now paying the price, in terms of destroyed cities and civilian deaths, for not doing so.

      • Why are the Donetsk and Russian forces fighting!? Ukraine forces have shelled the Kherson region killing 3 civilians with cluster bombs⚡️
        A man lost his mother and father and their neighbor lost his wife. Very bad day
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VG0OksTiAI

        Jude
        41 minutes ago
        This is heartbreaking. Poor man, loosing his parents. Than you Patrick for reporting this. Please keep safe.

        Ellen Fang
        47 minutes ago
        My heart goes out to these innocent Ukrainians who have had their homes bombed n their loved ones killed! However, all this wasn’t done by the Russians, but by their own soldiers, not only now, but for the last 8 years! I’m now even more convinced that Putin has done a noble job by liberating these people from the Nazis! I hope these poor people will be strong, hang in there n soon they’ll see a better tomorrow ! Thanks Patrick! Please stay safe!

        • Were the pregnant women being wheeled out of a maternity hospital Putin was bombing all nazis? Did Zalensky, who is jewish, ask Putin to invade his country to quell nazis? Because all countries have nazis and other crazies, but as long as their craziness doesn’t affect others, then live and let live acceptance is reasonable. But if it’s good grounds for a country to attack another, then there are good grounds for NZ to be invaded because there are PLENTY of nazis here, down south! I can spell this out for you, but I can’t understand it for you, you need to understand it yourself, but if you can’t, then have a good journey to bonkersville.

    • Hear hear. Spot on.
      ………… the pot calling the kettle black comes to mind Martyn. I always thought you were infinitely more honest than the MSM media.
      So I do hope the spooks don’t have a ‘control file’ on you that they’re using to sway your writing.

      • Considering that half the spooks probably have supremacist leanings, they could do with a control file on themselves, plus free psychotherapy leave, and a no sharp objects policy. Not renewing JK operative, Rebeccas contract, would be a start.

  6. The reality is that the central banks have been printing too much money since at least 2008 and that stemmed from America. How unfortunate that the rest of the world is now getting dragged into it amidst a global pandemic and a war in the Ukraine.

  8. I think given Shanghai and Beijing are relaxing restrictions it’s a bit hard to say what the supply side situation is in the short to medium term. How issues in China relate to our local food production is not clear to me and I welcome some enlightenment.

    Bob apparently you have all the answers so do your best!

    Ok I get the impact of fuel charges on local food costs clearly but with increased Middle East production I saw a report somewhere saying crude prices were predicted to go from $105/barrel to somewhere in the $80 range/barrel. How that fits into all of Martyn’s prediction I don’t know. Ok is it the fact that people actually paid to gather our food are being paid, more than a pittance, is that an issue?

    Lastly all the Putin/Russia fan club on this site keep saying he has Ukraine in the bag so the war may not go into next year at all. Maybe they are right. Either they win or those Russians with lots of money say enough is enough. It’s just plain wrong to say the strength of rouble is completely driven by demand. Those capital restrictions will be pissing people with influence off.

    • You don’t have to be part of a made-up Putin/Russia fan club to be allowed to highlight the lies and progagnda masquerading as news on the western media.
      ………… ‘strawman arguement’ comes to mind.

      • Agree Kevin you don’t, but some comments on this site seem have Putin as a poor innocent leader just trying to get by in the world.

        • Bollocks, Some of us struggle to make the point that the Ukrainians are no more innocent than the dirty Russians; that a war has been going on there for 8 years that we have not been informed about, and that our USA friends have been involved from the start. Another venture like Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.

          • Gee weren’t the Russians in Afghanistan? No argument from me about the Ukrainians, after all they have a strong Russian influence/connection. In fact Putin was supposed to be liberating them from the Nazi types. Unfortunately liberation seems to involve a whole lot of shelling.

            • I think the Russians were in Afghanistan at the request of their government, which was under threat from the Teleban.

        • Yes, I agree, what is it with that? Putin has always been the polar opposite of a poor leader simply trying to get by. His intelligence is second to none and his cunning makes him a dangerous man along with his skills, acumen and razor sharp perception of situations.

  9. A few things need to be understood.

    1. There is no return to normal. Domestically & Globally. This is it.
    2. Old school capitalism. Chicago School of Economics died at the GFC.
    3. The world has been and continues to be in a state of flux and will be for the rest of the decade.
    4. More of the current upheavals with cultural social engineering and governments moving toward Authoritarianism and fascist regimes
    5. A Bipolar World. The West v the BRICS+40 which is more than half of the world population.

    Who would’ve thought you would live to see the turmoil of the end of the empire of 1800-1945 replayed again in less than 100 years when the US, UK, and EU dominance is over.

    The BRICS+40 are the new Empire Overlords whether you like it or not.

    The transition is the difficult part and this is where the 2800 Billionaires have more influence in shaping the new world.

    Globalisation is dead except for generation internet who try to live by the those rules in the real world.

    Debt doesn’t matter anymore.

    • “The decline of the West is not necessary or historically inevitable. It is the result of choosing policies dictated by its rentier interests. … The threat posed to society by rentier interests is the great challenge of every nation today: whether its government can restrict the dynamics of finance capitalism and prevent an oligarchy from dominating the state and enriching itself by imposing austerity on labor and industry. So far, the West has not risen to this challenge.” “There are essentially two types of society: mixed economies with public checks and balances, and oligarchies that dismantle and privatize the state, taking over its monetary and credit system, the land and basic infrastructure to enrich themselves but choking the economy, not helping it grow.” Michael Hudson Destiny of Civilisation: Finance capitalism, Industrial capitalism or Socialism

    • I think you’ll find Debt DOES matter – particularly to those who have it and particularly with rising interest rates. Remember all of those who were predicting negative interest rates – where are they now?

    • “Chicago School of Economics died at the GFC.”

      I have long suspected that the inflation that has occurred in, say, the last one hundred years was largely the result of “fractional reserve” banking, and other bases for creating money from nothing within the private banking sector. In the early thirties the Chicago economists, supported by most American economists, presented the newly elected with a plan to end the banking crisis, afflicting America at the time, involving the imposition of a 100% reserve ratio on the private banks, and making money creation the sole province of government – the so called “Chicago Plan”. FDR declined to adopt their recommendation. More recently a couple of economists from, I think, the World Bank, produced a paper suggesting that the Chicago Plan would have worked.

      Making “fiat” money sole responsibility of government would allow governments to make better use of Keynesian methods to address unemployment, while at the same controlling monetary inflation. Governments would also be better able to direct credit into productive activity. Housing finance could be provided by an institution similar to the former State Advances Corporation.

      Adoption of something similar to the Chicago Plan might well have avoided the stagflation of the seventies, which ushered in neoliberalism.

  11. Robert Reich seems to have super vision and can see both what is obvious but remain unseen to all key players, and also explain why about inflation. He explains it is caused by corporate power, market domination by few giant companies, and a see-saw arrangement that enables each to raise its prices in turn. This is the very opposite of competition which we were told was going to ensure an efficient market and prevent bloated prices feeding Mr Creosote. We need to know about such and get inside those well-barbered heads who manage this stuff.
    Link to his short summary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi4KMCQuQYE

  12. What I can’t believe is how we ( You, not me. ) were so easily conned/pushed/dragged into this matrix of scams.
    Going into deep hock to foreign banksters to pay all but fictional millions for our own Kiwi huts is an example of what I mean. A frilly little wooden shanty on Ponsonby Road for multiples of millions? I mean, really?
    The Professor Milgram-esque hysteria which compelled you to become terminally in debt to your now lords and masters is an indication of just how linear thinking and just plain old dumb as fuck many of you are really are. No wonder many of you vote national and ACT. You poor dears literally can’t help your selves, your minds are not your own. If I were you, and thank the baby Jesus I’m not, I’d be worried as fuck.
    For example, you’ve seen how many of those double cab 4×4’s suddenly appearing on the roads? The ones pimped to look like desert storm military grade cock stretcher devices with the fake bonnet scoops and the extend-o-guards, plastic of course? The prices start at around $70k ! That’s mad, plus it was a trap. Cletus and Karen? They didn’t so much as see you coming, they compelled you to come to them. You were hypnotised by plastic trinkets. They knew you’d have no mind of your own to resist those snazzy plastic mudguard extensions and they knew you had the money in the false economy Ponsonby Hut.
    Humanoids? You were suckered. You were grifted. But perhaps worst of all, you were thrown under the bankster bus by the very people whom you vote in then pay well to best serve you to keep you safe and out of harms way.
    Ultimately, one must ask “Why?” Why trap us like stupid mice? Well, I can tell you why dumbasses. It’s because they want our country. And they’ll get it too.

    • Countryboy I hope you take some time for quiet relaxation between your rants. We don’t want you to blow a fuse. We need you around to explain the whole sorry mess to us regularly as we all get confused sometimes. After all we only have a 10 minute-second? attention span before the next noteworthy advertisement comes on, or the next USA tragedy gets covered by the media in depth enough to drown in. Keep it up, you’re the boy for the whole country!

  13. Didn’t this same economist along with a few others say NZ house prices would drop and not long after that they went up by 7% they are not always right. Some NZers have over leveraged themselves too much FOMO and as result they may end up with zero equity. And so who do you blame the banks or the borrowers or both.
    I heard Grant Robertson and Adrian Orr warn people about buying expensive properties that they can’t service and many chose to ignore them. Now will this be at there peril (the borrowers) we will have to wait and see.

    • Absolutely CIP my thoughts exactly and why buy into a property that is so overpriced it would be a prison sentence.

    • CIP and Bert
      You both nailed it. FOMO seemingly overrides everything these days, FOMO drives most irrational decisions, especially amongst younger people. Bigger house, bigger car, bigger restaurant bill, bigger everything. So people need to face the consequences of not being able to control their FOMO. I know people who bought a big boat out of FOMO. They never use it. Cost them a fortune to keep. Same thing. I’d like to own a house on the beach and also buy a big boat…but I can’t afford it without borrowing up to my eyeballs. So I won’t do it.

  15. A 2% interest rate rise would mean paying another $200 pw on a $500k mortgage, on top of current repayments. Robertson’s 3-fiddy cost of living payment will need to be rolled out every week at this rate. However this could be an opportunity for a reality tv program series which follows ambitious gen-ys and millenials about to lose everything, and the cameras catch all the hope but also all the despair, the lack of money for discretionary spending and then even the basics, overdrawn accounts and payment defaults and then the mortgagee sale, and finally the big move back in with the parents who will love unconditionally. I don’t watch reality tv but I would watch this reality tv.

  16. It saddens me that Kiwis do understand how bad things are going to get economically but if the effect does not seriously affect them then they will not care.

    • The effect of the rampant immigration during the National government years has come to the surface. A high population, creating huge problems with infrastructure, waiting lists just to see a GP, a housing crisis and poverty.
      This is the accumulative effect of no foresight.

        • No, wrong Bob, so very, very, wrong. Your loyalty to a party which allowed out of control immigration( Key/English stated immigration drives an economy) shows how their catastrophic decisions have lumbered N.Z.ers with this mess.
          What you are witnessing is Nationals mess at the forefront. It’s like that monetary investment that was put in place in 2008 and this is the return on your investment. All the meantime underinvested as the population grew.

          Your last sentence is beyond rhetoric/tribalism, it is juvenile and stupid. Either that or you clearly don’t read the news…

          Kianga Ora

          New Zealand Housing Foundation

          Te Tūāpapa Kura Kāinga

          Plans to build 10,000 new houses in Māngere
          Five Auckland suburbs to get improved infrastructure to boost supply of new housing, and support existing homes
          Up to 16,000 new homes enabled on crown-owned land including public, affordable and market homes
          Capacity created for an extra 11,000 homes on surrounding privately owned land.
          Projects include water main renewal, sewage and storm water system upgrades, flood protection, footpath and road improvements and site decontamination.

          So you were saying..”no plans to fix things.” Jesus H Christ Bob you are really pathetic but I’ll leave stefan with the final words of your character…

          “This country was sold out by the Key government, and has been left defenseless against the barbarity of those on the other side of the world… That defines rank stupidity, and disloyalty… To defend such traitorous behavior is to expose ones own lack of loyalty to ones own countrymen/women.. Shame on you…”

  17. And we are up to our eyeballs in debt with no room to manouvre because Adern et Al couldn’t control the urge to splurge.

  18. Prof Jane Kelsey has done her best to stir up some intelligent thinking about outcomes from trade deals we have considered and then triumphantly signed. Look what I did Mum says the toddler with some pretty precious artifact in pieces! That will be having an effect on us at the end of the day. This is what TDB and Prof Kelsey put up in March 2022.
    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/03/01/nz-uk-fta-inclusive-trade-agenda-does-nothing-to-redress-failed-free-trade-model/

  19. “The use of a nuclear battlefield nuke to terrify NATO and the Ukraine into submission grows by the day.”

    Why? Russia is winning. Notice the tone has changed in the Globalist propaganda media like NY Times, suddenly talking about likely Russia win of Donbas etc. Cold War dinosaur Kissinger wheeled out to warn and advise cutting a deal with Putin. No more Adolf Putin losing HUUUGE! Go The Ukraine! messaging.

    • Russia is winning for now.
      If Ukraine can hold them off for 2 more months, then the balance of power will begin to shift.
      Ukraine are in the midst of mass mobilisation and are receiving more and more equipment by the day.
      All the while Ukraine gets stronger, Russia is bleeding out.
      Yes, Russia can likewise undertake mass mobilisation, but there is a question over the political will to do that and how effective unwilling conscripts would actually be.
      Compound onto that the fact that Russia may not have the equipment to provide to such conscripts. They are already deploying T62s which are 60 years old and showing signs that they are near the end of their guided munitions stockpile.
      Even the United States with all it’s military and economic might couldn’t occupy a country indefinitely.
      Russia has a much less capable military, an economy the size of Italy and is subject to pretty severe sanctions. The clock is ticking for them.

      • I just can’t believe how dumb people are but Jays takes the cake( Bob agrees, so may in fact be dumber).
        What Ukraine is offering up in terms of warfare is minuscule. A war veteran told me recently that the advantage Russia has over Ukraine is that it’s military might will just continue on, a few small steps backwards at times but such is the total sum of it’s military might, it will just continue to increase it’s power tenfold, it is limitless, not as Jays suggests. Ukraine relies on support it’s dwindling allies.
        Proof Russia hasn’t emptied the barrel…. chemical and nuclear warfare…

        Russian gains in the east: Ukrainian officials say about 80% of the key eastern city of Severodonetsk is now occupied by Russian forces, as street fighting continues. The head of Luhansk’s regional military administration said Ukrainian forces have been successful on “some streets” and six Russian soldiers had been captured.
        Railway targeted: Russian missiles hit a railway in western Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials. The strikes occurred close to the Beskyd tunnel in the Carpathian mountains, near the border with Slovakia.
        Death toll mounts: Ukraine is losing 60 to 100 soldiers every day, Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky told Newsmax in an interview. He added that 500 are wounded in combat daily, calling the situation in the east “very difficult.”

  20. ” It saddens me that Kiwis do understand how bad things are going to get economically but if the effect does not seriously affect them then they will not care ”

    Hobbits are mean , selfish , arrogant , ignorant , corrupt , cruel , money hungry , self centred masochists who keep voting for businessman ( Nasty Natz and ACT ) who continue to exploit and violently attack them financially ( the bottom feeders and the pretend wealthy of the middle class ) who will never be able to collect a pension until they are nearly dead and dying despite paying taxes all of their working lives in the pretence that these policies are good for them and the ” others ”

    Most have no idea of the colour of shite. Only self interest, greed and what’s in it for me !

    • The country was run better by theNational type businessmen than the dreamers we have in charge now .Unfortunately after 9 years in power the National team had stopped listening and needed a wake up call but this lot have stopped listening after year one and since then have just organized working parties that give unread reports and promise money and results in the next term. Fortunately a vast majority of NZ people just get on with life doing the best they can and every 3 years vote for the group that they think will be that most help .

      • You are making sense till the last sentence Trevor. I put it that the vast majority of NZ think that they are the bees knees and have reached some superior stage of development, and now can live like noblemen and women with the government acting to suit the top bananas. The rest can have the peel and watch that they don’t slip further. Wrong. The government has to be there for all because we are a country that believes in respect for all humanity. And the people have to support the government in that idea. Isn’t that right? What do we believe in if not that and how can we go on pretending if we can’t believe in that. What then?

      • Yes Trevor. We’re on the ‘cusp of something special’. The ‘brighter future’ is just around the corner. So ‘let’s do this and keep moving’.

        Jeez – the country must be out of Kool-Aid, since so many gullible idiots are drinking it.

    • CS Lewis didn’t write about Hobbits in those unflattering ways did he? When we compare NZrs to Hobbits aren’t we talking about them being little, often well-meaning and ready to defend themselves against destructive amoral enemies. And that’s how NZs would like to think of themselves but often are more –
      ‘mean , selfish , arrogant , ignorant , corrupt , cruel , money hungry , self-centred masochists’. It would be a step up for us to actually be like Hobbits.

  21. “I don’t have a PHD in monetary theory, but I’m not sure raising interest rates that gives all that debt gravity as a means to slow spending will counter inflation if it’s being driven by Supply side dynamics, not Demand side dynamics.”

    True. What the RBG is trying to do is get the dollar higher to reduce imported cost (the signal of a further doubling 1 to 2 and then onto 4% next year is to get the markets onboard with currency revaluation). It’s the easiest way to get a quick impact. The reduced demand from homeowners and farmers (due to higher mortgage payments) would take longer to have an impact.

    On the positive side it looks like China is to ease its lockdown approach, starting with business.

    On the negative lower production because of omicron infection and isolation will continue (local shortages are part of the problem) through the year – hopefully employers flu dose their workers.

  22. ‘Consequences will be dire’: Chile’s water crisis is reaching breaking point
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/01/chiles-water-crisis-megadrought-reaching-breaking-point

    “Among their demands – which ranged from better pensions to healthcare reform – the slogan “it’s not drought, it’s theft” was a common refrain.

    Many called for a rewrite of Chile’s 1981 water code, a relic of Gen Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship (1973-1990) which enshrines one of the most privatised water systems in the world, allowing people to buy and sell water allocations like stocks.

    Chile is also the only country in the world that specifically says in its constitution that water rights are treated as private property.

    Before his election last year, Gabriel Boric, Chile’s progressive new president, promised a green future for the country, emphasising the protection and restoration of hydrological cycles.

    Boric, 36, signalled his intent by appointing a renowned climate scientist, Maisa Rojas, as his environment minister – but he need not look far for a jarring reminder of the task awaiting him.

    Just 50km south of Santiago, Lake Aculeo, once a tourism hotspot, was wiped off the map in less than a decade, disappearing altogether in 2018.

    A recent paper, of which García-Chevesich was a co-author, found that the sale of water rights, local population growth and climate change combined to dry the lake out completely.”

    NZ going in the same direction, 3 waters will not help, it will centralise and make it worse.

    NZ Government should have put in population growth rules (instead they are doing the opposite encouraging more people to live in NZ and more private polluting growth), climate change rules (virtually non existent, NZ buys credits from overseas because they are too cowardly to stop polluting industry here in particular the 50% that is NOT dairy which is not talked about and expanding), and stopped increased consents for private individuals for golf courses and water bottling which has been rampant.

    Consent granted for Chinese water bottling giant to purchase Otakiri Spring
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/104695650/consent-granted-for-chinese-water-bottling-giant-to-purchase-otakiri-spring

    Coutts water battle off to court
    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/coutts-water-battle-off-to-court

    Helena Bay Lodge consent for small stream to water lawns
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/helena-bay-lodge-consent-for-small-stream-to-water-lawns/REQ2EGNNRIEJDGZ2QWTON4HRWI/

    Chinese water bottling plant’s proposal to take water from Whakatane aquifer ‘sustainable’, court hears
    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/chinese-water-bottling-plants-proposal-take-whakatane-aquifer-sustainable-court-hears

    Canterbury water on way to Chinese market as bottling plant starts production
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/107721548/canterbury-water-on-way-to-chinese-market-as-bottling-plant-starts-production

    Whakatane locals outraged on government’s encouragement of Chinese water bottling investment
    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/whakatane-locals-outraged-governments-encouragement-chinese-water-bottling-investment

    NZ Government Secretly Funded Water Bottling Companies
    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1904/S00055/nz-government-secretly-funded-water-bottling-companies.htm

    Dome Valley Shock Decision: why is a Chinese company dumping French radioactive waste north of Auckland?
    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2021/06/17/dome-valley-shock-decision-why-is-a-chinese-company-dumping-french-radioactive-waste-north-of-auckland/

    Dam delays: Half soon, half later. Maybe.
    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/dam-delays-half-soon-half-later-maybe

    US billionaire gets green light for two more golf courses at Te Arai
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/us-billionaire-gets-green-light-for-two-more-golf-courses-at-te-arai/JYHQTEGHQCLJMR2ZFGJAQS74HI/

    • Thanks Save NZ while we are looking the other way all this is going on. We do have to peer through our fingers like frightened children at it. Of course the practical grown-ups would laugh at that analogy, and ignore most of it and put some paltry control on something that allows somebody bearing gifts to carry on despite.

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