New Poll – Labour & ACT soar

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Despite all the media attack, Labour soars in the latest internal polling

LABOUR – 46%
NATIONAL – 22%
ACT – 16%
GREENS – 7%
NZF – 3.8%
Maori Party – 1.9%

This runs counter to the narrative that there has been a serious swing away from Labour over it’s handling of Delta.

The majority of people support the Government and trust them to handle this. Yes it’s angering but people blame the virus, not Jacinda.

The big story is ACT continuing to cannibalise National vote and the continued death spiral of the National Party.

I predict ACT will overtake National during the foolish Hate Speech debate next year.

This polarization of the extreme right gaining such political dominance isn’t registering yet. The idea of a Seymour-Collins Government will terrify the middle into sticking with Labour in 2023 and helping win Jacinda a 3rd term, but the polarization of debate between the yawning chasm of ACT and Labour/Green will cause enormous friction for 2026.

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123 COMMENTS

  1. “The idea of a Seymour-Collins Government will terrify the middle into sticking with Labour in 2023”.
    Except Collins will have been knifed in the back before then, surely?

  2. Stating the bleeding obvious but Judith Collins is the main reason for Nationals demise and ACT’s unfounded popularity.

    But for the party that so enthusiasticallypushed for the Trans Tasman bubble, I think purely out of spite and the risk it created for self gain and the prime reason for the damage it caused Auckland and the harm it caused for the rest of New Zealand, this is just reward for it and it’s like minded supporters.

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer collection of freaks.

    • Fingered the problem effectively XRay. The public knows that JC and the gNats didn’t give a flying fuck about mass death and disability from an outbreak of Covid. Even the Wall St vultures at the Economist magazine admit that our GDP growth was directly related to a successful handling of the pandemic. But the power obsessed ghouls of Gnashnul are too addicted to death cult capitalism to ever change their ways. They richly deserve to be thrown into the dustbin of history.

    • Oh I didn’t realize National was in government? I thought Labour had a majority, how silly of me! Yes, shame on National for opening up the bubble with Australia…

  3. “The idea of a Seymour-Collins Government will terrify the middle into sticking with Labour in 2023 and helping win Jacinda a 3rd term, but the polarization of debate between the yawning chasm of ACT and Labour/Green will cause enormous friction for 2026.”

    Unfortunately you’re probably right. So we can look forward to a handover of power to unelected tribal elites, more Critical Race Theory and radical gender ideology, incorporation of mystical concepts like “mauri” into science courses, mandated equality of Maori/non-Maori outcome in eduation, hate speech legislation, parents being jailed for preferring “wait and watch” to “affirmation” of their child’s gender dysphoria, the burden of proof shifted onto defendants in sexual assault and rape cases.

    But no roll-back of user-pays.

    Because that is what we’re in for, people.

    It’s a desperate shame that covid is distracting Kiwis’ attention from the damage this government is doing to the functionality of our institutions.

  4. This poll has surprised me I would have thought we would start to see the swing. Normally you could cast this off is UMR trolling although like the Key years, there is somewhat stick no matter how badly issues are handled.

    At this rate Mike Morrah could discover Jacinda eating babies and she would still be in the low 40s.

    In 2024 there will be lots single, white females as those with a penis flee to the West Isle…….

  5. Oh let me have a guess? A Poll from UMR’s new name ‘Talbot Mills’ aka Stephen Mills’s new polling/research company.

    Fool me once ….

  6. Anyone seen this film?
    ‘This Is The End.’
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_Is_the_End
    A very stoned Seth Rogan playing himself and an old friend go to the American equivalent of a ‘Dairy’ to buy munchie treats when The Rapture begins.
    All the good people are sucked up into the heavens by blue beams of light while all the arse holes are left behind to get eaten by Satan’s minions or fall into a flaming abyss, to get eaten by Satan’s minions.
    Why does it feel like I’m in the movie on LSD when I read this ? “New Poll – Labour & ACT soar”
    Except…? It’s like the opposite is happening.
    All the arse holes get to go to pink, clean, white, heaven while all the good people must stay here on earth and burn alive?
    To think that roger ‘The stunted mutant’ douglas is ‘soaring’ in the poles while wearing david seymour’s skin is beyond macabre and surreal in a horrible, terrible, nightmarish, horror-story kind of way.
    What the fuck is wrong with many of you people…!?
    Our right wing, like all right wingers, is a deadly consortium of greedy, fascist psychopaths. douglas is entirely responsible for our last 35 years + of misery. We have whanau living in the streets and kids going to school hungry specifically and entirely because of that little monster. And ACT ‘soars’! What the fuck!?
    How can people be that stupid..? How can people be beguiled by the twerking, rat faced lizard seymour ?? ( A Chernobyl rat-species mutant. Look it up? )
    I’m in fucking shock. I’m going to go and do some weeding while thinking about douglas and seymour ‘soaring’ .

  7. In you’re using the “Extreme Right” label for ACT would you use the label “Extreme Left” to to bucket the Greens? Genuine question ?

    • Collins has been leader since 14th July 2020. Well over a year.
      ALL National MP’s when questioned have only ever offered 100% support of her and her methods.

      National’s problem isn’t just Collins. She’s but a symptom of a deeper, underlying sickness.

      • I agree the Nats have deep-seated problems – they can’t work out what they stand for. But Collins’ leadership isn’t helping them – she looked weak “demanding the debate” instead of stating a clear position, and she melted down recently in an interview. But I’m not sure who they can turn to.

        • Of course some are.
          But there’s a price for that lie. Those that survive Collins will be tarred with the “Collins supporter” epithet, whether genuine or not, until their careers end.
          Unless they (unheard of for a politician) admit the lie.
          Either way…….it’s bad optics.
          But the rot in National is deeper than their sociopathic leader.

    • Agree Ross but as a National voter I was horrified by what Browne said about the prisoners getting McDonalds .He shows no insight into dealing with those on the out.National need to be seen as relevant to all not just a few

    • I’m more than happy that she stay in the top job! It’s an imperative.
      It’s a lesson that the Nat’s need to learn. When you fuck-up your party so badly. The shit floats to the surface. 🙂

    • Ross
      As you know, national could announce its great new grand team, say 4 moths before the election. As long as the plans and promises and the vision is plausible and trustworthy and they sort of stack up…Labour will be toast. So may as see out this disastrous year with Collins playing in the sandpit. That would be my stratgey. But what do I know, I’m only in sales and marketing and promotion.

    • ” Agree with RM, somebody is going to have to re-build the national party ”

      1 who the hell cares about these people who had they been in government we would have been looking at mass casualties and misery and a volatile panicked population so that the borders , wealthy people and profits could continue regardless of the danger and long term consequences.

      2 Rebuild it into what exactly ? I think they are perfect exactly as they are along with LINO who uphold the status quo of an economy that only delivers and functions for big donors , vested interests and Aussie shareholders including the MPs themselves who profit of the back of the people they say they are trying to help with their extensive housing portfolios and business interests then get knighted for services to big business.

      Their are cycles of opportunity for political parties and as the gloss comes off Jacinda and her government of kindness National will be back re packaged , new marketing campaign and a new leader who will be the next big selfie celebrity but they will always have the same evil economic orthodoxy they always follow and that is always so destructive to the many communities in this country.

  8. How the hell are the Greens on 7% based on their lack of action on Covid, here are their last week greatest hits (this is from last week only – next week we will see)

    – Julie Anne walking out of a TV interview after very simply questions on her policies — Julie has been in Parliament for 10 years, receiving about $200K plus allowances each year
    – James Shaw, and some of his mates are going to the UK soon — taking up more MIQ spots from desperate Kiwis — reason? Climate Change summit…yeah, I am sure those Kiwis missing out on MIQ spots will understand.

    The Greens will be lucky, if they continue this crap, to get over 5% in the next election.

    • This is why National are screwed. People look external for excuses. Come on Nathan look at the shit interviews Collins has given. Indira asked very simple questions and Collins had a hissy fit. Collins was asked how many covid deaths were acceptable under her policies, Collins couldn’t give an answer. Collins has been in parliament since 2002 and was a precvious director of Housing NZ from 1999 to 2001 and helped.sell off state housing during her time in government.
      Don’t worry about the Greens son, they’ll be still around long after Collins is axed at Xmas.
      But keep looking externally, it’s what’s keeping National in opposition.

  9. Auckland, the labour strong hold hasn’t even begun to react to Covid quietly exploding within its boundaries. Even if the hospitals aren’t being overwhelmed in a month, the continued restrictions and general lack of life quality will take the shine off any badge labour wears on its chest. This government better start getting some points on the board or it’s finished.

  10. I read the headline..SOOOOAR it says….and I thought, whoarrr shit, Labour must be like on 78%. Keep on celebrating Jacinda fans, the 2023 election is in the bag. But once National get their act together, and they will, even if they do so in the last three months, then it’s suddenly not in the bag. All they have to do is promise heaps of big stuff and not even deliver on it. Not? Cynical? But hang on, that’s what we got right now…

    • Sorry mate. Jacinda will be Prime Minister for as long as she wants. She could be caught clubbing seal pups with a claw hammer and the female block will still vote for her because ‘she looks so good on the cover of the Women’s Weekly’. Also Tova and Jessica will see to it.

      If you think Labour will lose the next election whilst Jacinda is their “leader” you’re deluded.

  11. There is a deeper issue coming here with the “3 waters” legislation which will put a real test on the Labour electorate MP’s

    Do they run the party line and continue to try to sell and indeed push the policy? Or do they actually do their job and represent the views of their electorate to the Government?
    Now my guess is they will be whipped into line to push it through. The electorate will judge them harshly for this and they will removed at the next election particularly those first term MP’s who took their seat from National. They are gone!

    So to the point here.

    On these polls Labour could loose 15 electorate MP’s to National.(because of 3 waters)
    But still have 52 MP’s mainly from the list
    National could gain 15 and end up with 42 odd MP’s all from Constituencies
    ACT 20 seats all but 1 a list seat
    The Greens with 8 the Maoris with 2
    A 124 member Parliament

    So don’ t jump in glee at this point that Jacinda will get a third term. 3 waters will “sink” her electorate MP’s.as sure as day follows night

    • NZF will be back with 10 seats – taken from the Greens and Maori Parties – as long as Winston is back and dumps Shane Jones

      • funniest thing i’ve read all month. greens voters voting for Winston? actual Maoris voting for Winston? i just cant stop laughing… at you.

          • you mean they won the maori seats in one election, then broke away from NZ First to form their own party, and how many Maori seats did NZ First contest in the last election? none. Winston is yesterdays news. he won’t be able to convince enough people to get him 3 seats. 3 years of pork barreling in Northland got him no extra votes when he needed the votes. his base of voters are actually physically expiring, and he is not relevant enough for anyone under the age of 50, to want to vote for him. the idea that Winston will poach swing labour or national voters, let alone greens or maori party voters is at best fanciful, at worst delusional.

    • Good maths Clifford J

      Your sagacity reminds me of a maths team I had when I formed the first ever party under MMP AND which entered the first ever post 1930ies coalition – with National when believe it or not (but tis true) RoC held the power to call a snap election – which also provided me the power to demand ton be retained in the Executive -until the United Party emerged and Bolger and I could revert to be adversaries – as we were the 3 terms I was an MP.

      Its all here – D Liz seemed to have missed this in here synopsis of MMP – AND I never penned a word of the wiki synopsis.

    • 3 waters will not be an issue. Well sort of. You see in 2023 most of us will be dead. Around 4 million of us. We all drank the pooey muddy poisonous water coming out of every tap in the country. That’s what the expensive govt ad campaign said. So it must be true. Those that survived, maybe only a million of us, have realised the sly underhand con job sold to them. It has nothing to do with great water or a good infrastructure business case, but all to do with placating political allies. The survivors are letting Jacinda know that she’ll be gone…the polls leading into the election are sobering…depressing. Clarke is selling the house and packing for her new UN job in New York.

    • I think that you will find 95% of people couldn’t give a flying F#$k about 3 waters. Its just the talking heads and media lookin for a reason to exist. All i want is for drinkable water to come out of my tap and that will happen either way…. or not

      • Kim, how’s your water? Must be terrible going by the 3 Waters Govt website. Labour make it sound like we have water like in Chad…or Kongo! Or worse!!!! You know, boreholes with buckets, carry bucket on head. Very clever! They create a problem that doesn’t exist. Read their phrasing:
        “All New Zealanders deserve safe, reliable and affordable water services that support good health and sustainable environmental outcomes.” WE HAVE THAT ALREADY LABOUR!!!!

    • Yes you can countryboy.

      Many is the combined union delegate meeting at “Trillos” Convention centre downtown Auckland that I sat through in the late 70s and 80s, as we fought off employer attacks–Brierley owned and affiliated companies were some of the worst offenders. Making decent working class people pay for their largesse.

      A number of Media people knew what Ron’s predilections were, and kept their traps shut. Evil people should be held to account whatever their age as an example to others.

  12. I feel the Greens might get 4 seats, only if Chloe wins Auckland Central, Maori Party 0 seats (seriously what are they doing for their voters?), NZF will be back – only if Winston is back – and dumps Shane Jones – with 10 seats…
    So, an Labour – NZF Government in 2023…unless the Greens sort out their crap, and start focusing on people again.

  13. a couple of % points is not soaring
    but anyhow national wth JC at the helm are just going to keep sinking

    Thankfully though Labour will screw up by pushing 3 waters with no mandate and no support from the general public

  14. I suspect ACT is probably to the left of the US Democrat party. The “extreme right” is probably not deserved, unless you mean it only by New Zealand standards.

  15. Great news. Jacinda can win a third term and continue to disappoint and make life worse for our most vulnerable people, awesome!

  16. I think that National have quite a few problems ahead.

    They need to come up with a reasonably charismatic new leader (and I personally dont think Luxon is that person). Perhaps Bridges and Reti could pull it off but that is all I can think of only knowing about a dozen or less of who are on National’s Team.

    So No 1, Leadership change,

    No 2, New Policies.

    Some good old traditional mainstream law and order or similar (anti identity politics? sensible 3 waters alternative? education instead of dole??) Something suitably right wing to appeal to their base without appearing punitive. However simultaneously, they must pivot left and deliver major amounts of new low income houses and preferably improved healthcare. They wont get their base back without some of the things that appeal to their faithful but to woo the centre voters they have to be seen to be solving a really big problem for centre NZ. One that Jacinda simply hasnt. No demurring, no excuses, plans in place, ready to go in Week 1.

    They need strong common sense, well articulated policies that people intrinsically hear and think, yeah, that would work.

    This is the opportunity for National and the only way to win. Be a right wing party with some left leaning policies, pushing into the limelight people who can or are known to, deliver. And they need to do it soon, not four months before the election. Do this and their numbers will go up and they can do a coalition with Act (Keep the solidly Right wingers happy) and possibly get the numbers to get across the line.

    I also dont think Jacinda is a shoo in at the next election.

    Many more people than usual turned up at the last election. Those that usually dont bother to vote may be ravaged by Covid by the time 2023 comes around. Either through devastation or the need to have someone to blame, Jacinda could lose some of her base. I believe she has already lost or severely undermined up to 20% of her older labour voters if some of the polls we have seen are true. Add an unenviable underclass death rate and a whole lot of people hanging on by a thread (as business disruptions and lockdowns/ restrictions will still rear their heads) and she becomes the face of NZ’s pain and will wear it at some point.

    If she rushes out early next year to open the borders (which she will) everything will get a lot worse when the virus starts travelling through a naive population. Our hospitals wont cope, neither will our ‘death’ industries, we simply dont have the capacity no matter what stories Andrew Little tells. And people will see it as ‘her’ fault.

    • You’re right Binky. National are just as good at lying as labour was in their first election. If National come up with a couple of socialist policies that they can make happen, the people who have had their hopes and dreams sucked dry by a National in drag labour party will have no option but to give National another try. They’ll do this because Act, thought a good punishment for National party will always be a bit scary.

  17. Has anyone any idea what the comments by a person going by the name Bert is talking about?
    I certainly don’t his credibility is seriously undermined by his illiteracy.
    Then again he is entitled to his opinions which I read with great amusement.
    So go Bert and continue to reveal your complete lack of objectivity and education.
    I know you mean well.

  18. Has anyone any idea what the comments by a person going by the name Bert is talking about?
    I certainly don’t his credibility is seriously undermined by his illiteracy.
    Then again he is entitled to his opinions which I read with great amusement.
    So go Bert and continue to reveal your complete lack of objectivity and education.
    I know you mean well.

  19. What sort of hateful, vindictive, sociopath could vote for a party that has increased inequality, increased homelessness, increased child poverty, increased gang crime, but then also increased the riches wealth at record speed? If you vote National or (new) Labour you should be ashamed of yourself. If you are a true kiwi your next vote should be for a real Labour party in a different country. Leave this land of greed and let the rich eat one another.

  20. Another reason National is languishing in the polls is because its ground continues to be stolen by the so-called left, that is, Labour. So I repeat, national should reinvent itself as the new left. Just as labour was hijacked buy a right-wing rat pack in the form of Rodger Douglas & Co, national need to have a coup because it doesn’t look as though Labour is going to return to its roots anytime soon and National is in dire straits. All for the greater good, of course.

    • As I’ve repeated time and time again. In NZ politics “policies do not matter”.

      National could come up with the greatest policies in the world, the females will still vote Jacinda because she’s “so amazaballs”. I know a work colleague who voted for Labour because (her words) “Jacinda had a baby”.

      We might as well have an “let’s see who has the most FB followers and make them Prime Minister”…ops we already do.

      • Ye. As I have said in the past, most people vote selfishly or emotionally. Just saying…National have nothing to lose and I agree with the idea that we need a new (real) Left. But who would be their “popular” leader?

      • I agree Bg. I have a brother who hates Jacinda, so he won’t vote Labour or get vaccinated. His logic is that he can’t stand Jacinda, so it goes both ways. Mind you, hardly surprising if it was based on FB likes, given Collins profile.

  21. National and ACT’s vision of a future under COVID is of them, the 1% and the wannabes in their own safe zone separated from the poor migrants, the unemployed, the unions and the greenies. No one will be allowed into their eden unless the toilets need to be cleaned, or rubbish removed or it is time to serve their lunch. Theirs is the vision of the haves, the have nots can get knotted.
    I have followed NZ politics very closely over 50 years and have seen a lot of bad and a few good things.
    But seldom have I seen such blatant disregard for fellow New Zealanders as shown by National and ACT.
    Quite simply, to them New Zealanders are expendable in the quest to attain wealth.
    Despite the mistakes Labour has made in dealing with COVID and all its implications, people see through National’s sneering rhetoric and hindsight pointscoring.
    Many New Zealanders, particularly in Auckland, are doing it tough at the moment.
    The last thing they want to see is someone undermining their sacrifices, be it self-appointed mystics or wealthy right-wing politicians.
    That is why National are sinking deeper into doo-doo whilst their hardcore supporters are one-by-one slipping quietly away to ACT.
    They are not fit to be in government, and more people are realizing this.

  22. I would calm the farm on a third term.
    This second Covid bump is alot smaller than the first one and it only took a year for Labour to lose 10% of their previous vote. Labour does so extremely well when they focus on jobs and providing people with security I just can’t understand how they continue to sabotage themselves with American Wokery.
    I also agree with you that ACT will become the right wing values party, the problem I see is will they be considered a Major party?. Seymour isn’t unpopular, he is polling very well for an opposition leader of a Minor party and if he can get more screen time then he could really start surging like we have seen happen with smaller parties in Europe. I know our media thinks “we’re all living in America” but we aren’t.

  23. Looks like the PM has given up on elimination just like she has given up on Housing, Homelessness, Poverty, Terrorism, Health & Education and now this, Covid.
    I guess her next political campaign slogan could be, “I Don’t Give Up Easily!”

  24. bert-‘I have no doubt you and I will have the last laugh as the tail wags the head.’
    I think its more the arse twerks the National head.

  25. Polls. Timing is everything??
    I betcha there will be another poll rushed out now after this vaxx day yesterday.

    I’m guessing we’ll see another poll within 2 to 3 weeks when they bring out the final details of the traffic light bs system.

  26. The last laugh will be with the wealthy who have made more money in the last four years than they did in the previous nine?Meanwhile the wealth gap has widened?
    So who is wagging who?

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