Invariably Opposition do not win elections: Governments lose. Come 2023 however, in my opinion, the National Opposition are not going to win! In fact, they will fall even further than they fell at the 2020 General Election.
The 2020 produced a first ever result in nine general elections under the MMP system whereby one political party won sufficient voter support to rule in its own right. How did this happen?
Many factors contributed including the lustre and luck of an emerging political star, Jacinda Ardern. But, the massive swing of former hard core Tory support away from National, was in my assessment, the critical factor.
The unprecedented swings of voter support were away from National rather than to Labour.
Take my former hard core Tory electorate seat of Hobson in Northland (where I once held a 4,000 majority) and that of the late Honourable Venn Young’s Waitotara electorate in the Taranaki region (where he consistently had very high majorities). These and many other “safe” National seats, tumbled. Unbelievable, to many of the Blue Brigade.
For three consecutive terms (1987, 1990,1993) I was elected as the Member of Parliament in the electorate seat of Hobson as the National Party candidate. Yet, in 2020 I joined the exodus of National support and voted Labour. (And, this in-spite of $2,000.00 donations to National.)
My vote for Labour was not because I was enamoured with Jacinda. My vote was against National. And I suggest that this was the case with the majority of the tsunami of former Tories who went Left.
In my view, National’s election campaign was a disaster. It promised nothing – which included the line-up of MPs National presented to the country. In my view, nothing has changed as the 2023 general elections looms.
Blogger Martyn Bradbury shows the first signs of fear and loathing at the prospect of Labour losing the next round. The most recent poll sowing an 18% loss of support in just one month, seemed to rattle the gage of hard-core Labourites. Jacinda’s star has waned.
In an earlier blog, Martyn blustered about Judith Collins’ “race baiting Aotearoa referendum”.
Martyn seems to hold the view that Judith Collins’ audacity in postulating a referendum on a name change for New Zealand, will lose her votes? I tend to agree. But for different reasons.
In my view, Judith Collins will lose votes because she lacks the fortitude to stand against the woke disease which threatens to have New Zealand re-named. She lacks the leadership qualities to come forward and state unequivocally:
“Under my leadership, National will not re-name New Zealand.”
Afterall, that’s what 83% of the country want!
That’s it! That will win National the Treasury benches.
In my view, Judith Collins fails miserably as a so-called leader of a political party which has as its core philosophy, preservation of the pillars of what has made our county what it is today. Conservatism is National’s raison d’etre.
Some might argue that Jacinda Ardern’s rise to power was per chance? A combination of a woeful National Opposition, the unacceptability (and rightly so) of Mr Little as leader and a matter of being in the right place at the right time – after which the Christchurch massacres, the White Island tragedy and COVID, provided well timed momentum.
David Seymour’s elevation in the polls and potentially to Prime Minister, also seems to be the result of, chance?
Nearly every Tory I speak with, is now going to vote ACT.
Oh! I almost forgot. I said, “nearly every”!
Whereas I didn’t give the Rt Hon Winston a snowballs chance in Hell, Judith’s neglect of the conservative’s ethos of National, opens the door to Winnie being a winner – once again.
Ross Meurant, graduate in politics both at university and as a Member of Parliament; formerly police inspector in charge of Auckland spies; currently Honorary Consul for an African state’ Trustee and CEO of Russian owned commercial assets in New Zealand and has international business interests.
Winston will be back, as the longest standing politician, he doesn’t go down easily. Not that guy.
Agree Winston will be back he just needs to articulate a bit better and make sure the brain is engaged b4 he opens his mouth. Winston and NZ First seem to shoot themselves in the feet over and over again, attracting unwanted attention for minor issues. National always come up with an NZ First scandal right b4 each Election which sends Winston & NZ First into a tail spin.
I think you’re on the money, Mr. Meurant. National’s “Demand the Debate” is a weak and unconvincing stance. Instead of standing up and offering an alternative vision for the country, Collins wants to know which way the wind’s blowing, and how strong the wind is. The impression I get is that the Nats would not repeal most of the woke legislation that Ardern and friends seem intent on pushing through.
There’s a lack of genuine political diversity in our house of unrepresentatives. We have no genuine left-wing party, and no genuine conservative party. Most of our major political parties look like prog neoliberal parties – sure some of them are more prog than others, and some are more neoliberal than others, but I think it’s fair to speak of a prog neoliberal consensus – or perhaps better described as a prog neoliberal rut. Even ACT look like supporting the nefarious “conversion therapy” legislation.
Another comeback by Winnie? It’s a long shot – there’s so much baggage.
National Demanding a Debate on Aotearoa, I don’t understand where this woman is coming from, we currently refer to the country as New Zealand and sometimes it is refered to as Aotearoa. I think 80% prefer New Zealand and 20% Aotearoa, quite honestly I don’t give a rat’s arse.
So what are we actually going to debate ?
She’s got me f$%ked, I am LOST ?
I think I would prefer Aotearoa if the change-over did not create too many problems. New Zealand makes us sound Dutch.
Other countries have changed there names successfully: Ceylon to Sri Lanka, Burma to Myanmar, Siam to Thailand, Formosa to Taiwan – I don’t know of any others – so it can be done.
I agree.
National also need to cut their Chinese links before I would ever consider voting for them.
Referendum on name change to woke Aotearoa?
Stand for something.
Mis naming New Zealand constantly as Aotearoa doesn’t offend me, I use it as a kind of barometer of who is a politically correct clown and it seems the circus is in town.
The term is in constant media and government use despite most of NZ not wanting it and Aotearoa being an incorrect North Island term anyway.
Keepcalmcarryon. Aotearoa was cultural appropriation by a couple of colonialists – how dare they.
I do get tired of pouring over atlases trying to work out what countries are what , and what name they used to be called, and where they are anyway, and Aotearoa is pretty much the domain of newbie immigrants showing their cultural sensitivity with the zeal of religious converts everywhere – real or otherwise – and I like the Dutch monarchy – we could have been good Dutch – better artists than the Brits- and their monarch is a KLM pilot.
The Nats were always Philistines – that vulgar Keith Holyoake telling a departing diplomat to give his regards to the Queen – sooner or later they were bound to implode – and it’s all happening now. If Labour can jettison the racist gender-obsessed Greens, and touch base with more normal people, they could be on an upward trajectory. If.
Yup if National cut all ties with China (and in fact made a public stand against the concentration camps / obstruction of Covid investigations / CCCP threatening to nuke Japan etc) / make a clear stand against all the current woke bullshit / acknowledged Dirty Politics and Key as shithead that he was and is / canned Collins then maybe then I could consider voting for them . .
National will confined to the Annals of History after the 2023 Election, NZ First and ACT will decimate the National Party and all the odd balls that make up it’s ranks will be looking for fresh employment opportunities. IMHO.
As one who is very close to the Annual Conference National is holding this weekend, I have been utterly disgusted at the lack of commitment by the “candidates” to any issue on the political agenda.
As Ross says, the representatives of National are totally lacking in courage to take a position on any issue.
I wouldn’t say National is a “dead duck” yet, but it is definitely a rapidly sinking ship.
Simon Bridges’ concern about punitive treatments for parents concerned about their juvenile offspring having puberty blockers, was a good stance – and probably a genuine one; that needed to be addressed.
ACT and NZ First will pick up votes from disillusioned National Voters at the 2023 Election.
I would hope both National and Labour say they will refuse to work with Winston he is a poison and has really done little for the country through his years in power . Friends in the racing and seafood industry did ok but who else was helped .
Right on the mark there Trevor.
Surveillance cameras disappeared – so too did the fish.
Winston is the only honest politician NZ has had in the last 40 years, he has tried to keep Labour and National to account when he has been in the Coalition Governments.
He was the biggest liar in a parliament full of them.
Probably right on the button Ross. Act are on the rise because David Seymore appeals to the ordinary Kiwi Joker, the Kiwi Battler that Mike Moore and Norman Kirk saw as their key constituency, David has them in the bag now.
Jacinda finally exorcised them as Labour supporters with the Ute tax.
Winston is on the rise for two reasons, first while he was perpetually portrayed as the “hand bake” on Jacinda in the last term, many now wish him back there with her to keep the inane policies (cycle bridge ute tax, stopping 500 desperately needed houses from being built at Ishumato, 3 Waters) from seeing the light of day. The reality was he stopped Labour from shooting themselves in the foot last term, with out him they have shot themselves in the head with their ill conceived policies and are now bleeding to death. The second reason is around separatism Winston represents one country one people, the One Country, Two people, promoted in the name of The Treaty as the way forward by the current Government is seen as abhorrent by many. Many who see Winston as the man to stop it dead. He will be back for these two reasons
Ross the interesting thing will be just how great will the vote splitting be?
Will Act receive say 25% of the party vote and maybe 5% of the electorate vote?
Who will get the balance of the electorate vote, National or Labour that I believe will be the question come the next election.
It will not be 2 ticks for National OR 2 ticks for Labour, but one tick Act and the other tick for the person I believe will be a good local MP
Maybe the electorate as a whole will come to understand just how MMP was supposed to work!!
David Seymour doesn’t give a shit for ordinary kiwis. Evidence being that he plans to freeze all wages for the average worker indefinitely, and flood the country with cheap immigrant labour again.
Seymour is the biggest dole bludger in N.Z.
Genuine beneficiaries should be appalled.
Only elected on the back of a cup of tea, that is enough evidence to tell you the ACT party is a scam.
We all know what is wrong with Judith.
We all know what Act is like? Nazi dirty fuckers when the covers are off! Remember, they were given birth by Douglas & Prebble & co. Different sides of the same coin, Labour & Act!
This is what we have now in play! The remnants and runts of that era trying to figure out what they are now in, at the end of an era of neoliberalism-capitalism!
Or to put it another way, a Class War!
Winstone has had his days we need to move on not go backwards.
I disagree with one commentator that there is a lack of general diversity in Parliament. Both mainstream parties consist of politicians who are to the left, to the right, and in the centre of their respective caucuses. Ever since Helen Clark loosened the reins on her caucus in her third term from 2005 – 2008, this has been the case in New Zealand politics, and successive leaders of both mainstream political parties have remained impartial to the personal political leanings of their MP’s. We’ve also seen some interesting leadership pairings which can confirm this.
I also disagree that National is a dead duck. I feel the sense and sensibility portrayed by Judith Collins lately will gain voters for the National Party. I’m picking that Labour will win the election, with a third term as Prime Minister for Jacinda Ardern, but I also feel that it will be a close election. I’m also picking that Judith Collins will be rolled as National Leader within a year of the 2023 election.
National is far from a dead duck. Give it a year or so.
Meanwhile Collins has a lot of internal sorting out to do – getting the ‘wets’ into line or having them removed, then establishing a consistent policy framework. Thatcher had to do exactly the same thing when she first became leader.
You’ll know she’s failed when they parachute in Luxton: That’s when I will agree with you.
Ross I may well be wrong but you appear to have an axe to grind with the National Party particularly given you were a National MP?
John
On the contrary
I had 9 years parliament thanks to national – not me (I’m not a Winston Peters) – opened doors to the life I now lead. http://www.rossmeruant.co.nz
Beats staying as a mr Plod for a life career.
Walked away with Muldoon’s golden pension.
No axe with National.
Read the music above.
Collins does not preserve and protect the philosophy of National.
And that is a conservative ethos.
That is to protect what we have.
New Zealand as the name of our country.
Judy has a bob each way -testing which way the wind blows
Equality – all ethnicity are equal – not elevating one above all others – where is judy on this?
Try this for bed time reading https://www.nzcpr.com/a-step-too-far-bi-cultural-partnership/
Protection of private property
Private Property sanctity – being Number 1
given that the majority of they who subscribe to traditionally National policy are closet capitalists and I most certainly am.
My axe is with Collins. Read what I write. In my view she lacks leadership qualities.
But you? Vote for whom you think can lead us. Afterall; This is still a democracy.
John
Just for the record
I am a hard core right of centre on economics.
People who take risks i.e. mortgages the house to develop a business which provides employment? These are the unsung heroes of NZ
On social policy I am probably left.
I voted against hanging and for gay rights when I was an MP
I and my electorate introduced the remit for National to adopt Labour’s anti-nuke policy.
I advocate legalising dope https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/12/23/guest-blog-ross-meurant-to-legalise-or-prohibit/
I advocate a hand brake on police killings. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/iross-meuranti-officers-in-charge-of-weapons-are-culpable/6I5O5GNUPFUV5N5TRS67HKIAIY/
And $1k of the $2k I donated to National went to Nikki Kaye
Perception is rarely reality
Brilliant response Ross, nothing facts to put people right.
Thankyou Ross
Meurant’s case has just been endorsed.
Sir David Carter lost a challenge to the president role for National and has resigned “effective immediately “.
National continues with the same leadership.
Very disappointing.
Titanic in the making.
Absolutely rotting from the head down. Carter going will only be the start, even the right wing Herald are putting the boot in.
If Carter resigned like that it’s because he knows something is rotten in the state of Denmark. While I appreciate Ross as a commentator, he still writes in rather old school terms regarding conservatism being equated with capitalism, which I disagree with, capitalism and colonialism both being exploitative grifter mindsets of ‘might is right’ flavour. Conservatism has to speak for itself as we no longer have the wonderful David Bellamy to speak for us: https://www.desmog.com/david-bellamy/
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