I don’t think we have our head around how enormous Covid is and that the sooner we start appreciating that this is the new normal, the sooner we can acknowledge the level of adaption required.
Hyper tourism is dead: We just won’t see the vast number of people travelling which in turn will push up prices which in turn will start to make air travel something only the middle classes and up use.
Global Herd Immunity will take at least 7 years to achieve: Bloomberg found that even if everything goes our way, it’s going to take 7 years to ensure 75% of the planet has had th shot.
Lockdowns will become the norm: Whenever the hospital system is threatened with being over run, a Government will revert back to lockdowns.
Annual vaccination infrastructure: It is obvious that because of the mutations, we will require annual Covid shots to maintain that herd immunity.
Next Pandemic: The moment we get a pandemic that has a far higher mortality rate is when we truly start to suffer.
Covid is here and it won’t magically disappear. The naked reality is that Western Governments are struggling to build the extra hospital capacity and mortuary capacity that will allow a seasonal flu level of ongoing deaths. Take NZ, flu annually kills 500 but because we are used to and accept that number it occurs within a system that has capacity for that. We require an expansion of hospital and morgue capacity to include a percentage who will die from Covid once we’ve hit 75% because without that capacity we must still remain in an ever ready sense of response that will get weaker and weaker as the years go by.
The level of death a Government can accept within a system that has the extra capacity for that death is the balancing act here between public health and the economy, but no one has that capacity yet so smothering the virus with lockdowns to prevent it overwhelming the hospital system is the only game in town.
The only certainty we have is that it won’t and can’t go back to business as usual.
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