You Know What? Collins Could Win This.

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THIS IS SERIOUS now. Judith Collins is leading the National Party back into electoral contention. Against all the appearances of just a fortnight ago, Labour’s 50 percent fortress is proving to be alarmingly vulnerable. Jacinda could lose this.

If the 200,000 former National voters, most of them women over 45 years-of-age, who crossed over to Labour in recognition of Jacinda’s management of the Covid-19 emergency, begin to waver, then the shape of the battle-lines will change dramatically. Instead of a cake-walk to victory, this election will become a knife-fight for political survival.

In the light of Collins’ two pretty good Leaders’ Debate performances, it is highly likely that the wavering has already begun. What’s more, if it’s picked up by Colmar Brunton’s and Reid Research’s pollsters, then the pace and scale of that wavering will only increase. The trickle of Nats returning to the fold, will become a flood. By Election Day the two main parties could be duking it out for the prize of a percentage beginning with 4. If that is where the two major parties do end up, then the share of the Party Vote won by Act and the Greens will be critical to the election’s outcome.

In this situation, the Right has the advantage. National deserters returning to the fold will come, overwhelmingly, from Labour. What that is likely to precipitate is a stampede back to Labour by left-leaning voters who’d made a strategic decision to support the Greens. That would be the very worst thing they could do, of course, but it won’t stop them. Their panic-driven determination to rally-round Jacinda, to protect the Queen, will drown out the voice of political rationality. If this sudden surge from the Greens to Labour is too large, then it’s all over. Driven below the 5 percent MMP threshold, the Greens’ inadequate share of the Party Vote will be redistributed among the successful parties. National and Act, together, will have more than enough seats to form a government. Labour will be out.

The truly terrifying aspect of this grim scenario is that there is so very little that Labour can do to defend itself. It is important to recall that in 2017, with “Jacindamania” in full-swing, Labour could attract no more than 37 percent of the Party Vote. That was 7 percentage points shy of National’s 44 percent. The raw political arithmetic of these results is not encouraging. Even with the more progressive remnants of NZ First in its pocket, Labour’s 2020 numbers – sans National’s deserters – will struggle to add up to more than 40 percent.

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It gets worse. Labour, in its pride, has ruled out a deal in Auckland Central. So, unlike National and Act, if Labour’s numbers end up being even marginally fattened by “strategic” Green voters returning to the fold, then that extra fat could kill its chances of re-election stone-dead. By contrast, Act can fall below the 5 percent threshold without denying its National Party ally the additional seats needed to govern. Perhaps it’s time for Labour to ask itself exactly how badly it wants Helen White to beat Chloe Swarbrick?

Labour’s strategists’ dreams about building an unbeatable “centrist coalition” out of the professional-managerial middle-class and the upwardly-mobile working-class: a broad electoral alliance from which the extremes of right and left could be shaken-off; were always ridiculously optimistic. The idea of a new kind of politics, accessible to “progressive New Zealanders”, but not to the backward-looking National Party, always grossly over-estimated the middle-class’s willingness to share. That those same strategists assessed the poorest and most marginalised New Zealanders as being permanently alienated from electoral politics, left Labour with no Plan-B. If all it takes to woo back National’s 200,000 deserters are a few well-rehearsed zingers from Judith Collins, then from whence can Labour possibly hope to replace them? Unfortunately, there’s no “progressive” answer to that question.

Surely, there must be something Labour can do to hold its Covid Converts in place? Yes, there is, and it can be summed-up in a single word: “Fear.” Jacinda and her colleagues need to pivot away immediately from their current message of rather complacent optimism, and towards the imminent threat of a National-Act programme of ruthless economic austerity. Scare the bejesus out of the nurses and teachers Judith Collins is forever appealing to. Make them feel the fear of cuts and lay-offs as Paul Goldsmith – egged-on by David Seymour – plays Edward Scissorhands with public health and education. Make all those 45+ women hear, in their mind’s ear, the demented cackle of Collins on election night as she discovers how many of her sisters have fallen for her “Nice Judith” routine.

Ask moderate voters to ask themselves why Collins has suddenly taken to describing herself as a Christian. To whom, exactly is this new, devout, Judith appealing? To which faction of the National Party caucus has this newly-minted Christian Collins sworn her undying loyalty? Do moderate voters really want to see their country pitched into the sort of culture wars that have brought the United States to the brink of civil war? When the voters look at Judith Collins, Labour needs to make them see Donald Trump.

Too much? Not at all. Who do you think National’s going to go after over the course of the next fortnight? Who do they need people to flee from in terror? No, not Labour! National’s target will be the Greens. The party’s message will be brutally simple: the only way to avoid paying a Wealth Tax; the only way to prevent the dairy industry from being destroyed; the only way to preserve your right to free speech; is to Party Vote National. Jacinda couldn’t say no to Winston Peters, the Covid Converts will be told, so can you really see her saying no to Marama Davidson and Golriz Ghahraman?

See how easy it is! Scare the Covid Converts back to National. That will scare the strategic Green voters back to Jacinda. That takes the Greens below the 5 percent MMP threshold. And that’s ‘Game Over’.

So, you know what? Labour’s only real chance of securing re-election is to scare them the hell back.

 

107 COMMENTS

  1. With the vast and powerful propaganda machine blasting out 24/7, how to counteract that? How to reach people? …and time is running out fast.

    The wave of votes has already begun, from Kiwis O/S.
    Tomorrow Advance Voting begins. They’re expecting 60%, but this year, with emotions so high and people so polarised, could easily be more.

  2. IMO it is now almost certain that Jacinda will need another party to get over the line. That being so, we MUST have the Greens represented. (Again, just IMO.)

      • Yes indeed – Hope. But something a little more substantial than that hopey hopey changey changey stuff.
        While Itellyawot Collins is going full Trump and ‘that little Cindy’ rightfully refuses to dignify the behaviour by being a bitch and descending into the cesspit the neo-gNatz and their enterage of self-entitled specimens are hoping for, it’s up to the parts of the electorate to become motivated.
        Things have not yet been totally corrupted though, so we’ll get what we deserve.
        But “I tellya wot”, If Labour do manage to form a gummint, they better had have gotten their shit together and be able to move fast on a number of “transformational and kind” things. (Which might mean getting rid of one or two of the ditherers, procrastinators and non-performers and giving one or two others in the line-up a shot – thankfully she’s got a few, plus the core of 6 or 7 or 8 carrying the load at the moment to work with

  3. On the other hand look at the preferred Prime Minister polls.
    Jacinda Adern is miles ahead of Judith Collins.
    Most people will be familiar with MMP now to know that if you prefer one leader the best way to get that leader is to party vote for that leader’s party.
    As per the Greens frightening voters, I would contend that ACT is equally frightening to a different range of voters.
    Labour need to campaign on the premise that a National victory will inflict ACT on an undeserving country and we can watch the meagre state services that still exist disappear into thin air, tradable voucher systems for health and education, lower wages, open borders and more COVID.

    • look at the preferred Prime Minister polls

      Yes, but here in AO/ NZ we don’t have separate voting for the PM/ prez-effect.
      Of COURSE I prefer Jacinda, by a thousand thousand miles and more.
      And I am terrified, actually shite-scared of the Nats forming a govt.
      But I am also acutely aware that many others do not feel that way, including many who won’t even admit it.

      I guess we’ll see..

    • Jacinda cannot do it all and a vote for Labour is a vote for her and the mainly underperforming ministers. Mullar had it right when he said there was Jacinda and 17 empty seats . Take away the coronavirus response and look ahead to how we are going to move forward and I see no real plan and if Labour need the Greens then we will go backwards,

  4. Yes Chris, aren’t political elections the ultimate theatre. Throw in Covid and its economic fallout and the stage is set. Entertaining (for some) as they are forget the leaders debates. Polls, well, indicative of trends at best. What REALLY matters is what happens at the booth: the two ticks. I have always thought that much of AO/NZ is highly conservative at heart and Covid or no Covid it is not really surprising that the Natz are still hanging in there, with Judith flying their flag. Even though their blatant commitment to neoliberalism seems untimely (but what is Labour REALLY offering, other than another / the same version of the Third Way… and a PM whose heart seems to be in the right place). So scary as it is, the Natz won’t be far behind. They have good numbers, traditional and swingers… even a few deluded new comers.

    It reminds me of the short story (Basket of Deplorables) by the American writer, Tom Rachman, who tells of events at a “celebratory” party of Democrat supporters the night Trump was confirmed President. Who would have believed it! So stranger things have happened. But hopefully not here.

  5. You make a fair assessment Chris – the election is up for grabs

    To understand why, we have to recognize why Labour is/was so high in the polls. Let’s be frank – it certainly wasn’t for their performance whilst in government! Which has been truly abysmal by any metric you chose to mention. (so bad in fact that National now has a Facebook ad on the topic)

    The reason for their high polling is Covid 19 fear. It’s not so much 45+ year old women who have transferred their vote to Labour, it’s 70+ year olds who are terrified of dying. I’ve met a couple in recent weeks. They are petrified of it, one couple wear masks in their home!

    The problem with fear is that it doesn’t last: One can only terrify someone for so long before it becomes the ‘new normal’ and people settle down and start to think rationally.

    The question on peoples minds now is: “Which of the two parties can lead us out of the current situation” and that’s where Collins may gain an edge.

    • No Andrew you forgot an important word, the word trusts. Which of the two parties can we trusts to lead us out of the current situation. And that is where Jacinda has an edge.

    • Is/was? Lol they are at 47% national are at 31% and most swing voters who don’t #tagging who won or block voting in newshub polls saw Judith as a bully who they don’t want making decisions in an emergency.

      47% 48% 50% last three polls. Lefty’s do like to panic don’t they

    • I disagree Andrew, how are the pundits measuring Collin’s “success”. The”debates” are like silly school affairs with quick/slick one-liners as the highlights. Taking this sort of thing seriously is pathetic and the polls so far are showing that the voters aren’t interested.

      You’re making a mountain out of a molehill, Chris. Treating Collin’s carry-on seriously, is turning it into something it is not – yet it might become something thanks to you.

  6. Chris
    Hadn’t ever considered your scenario. Could happen but probably not. But as usual, Labour isn’t helping itself at this time with a bunch of typical wishy washy policies, like:
    Pledging to look at food prices. Really? Pledging to look at building costs, but not reigning in compliance cost. Really? And a billion dollar health ‘wishlist’ but no definitive action plan to get it done. Here we go again…they are really counting on all of NZ being stupid suckers!
    Upshot of your scenario is that Ashley Bloomfield will still be there.
    Thankfully he is not employed by Labour.

    • ” Labour isn’t helping itself at this time with a bunch of typical wishy washy policies, like:
      Pledging to look at food prices.
      Really wish washy ? We are being extorted by Foodies and the Aussie progressives and have no protection whatsoever in this regulated duopoly that we we were promised would not happen when deregulation was forced on us and was meant to deliver a new dawn for kiwi consumers. Kiwis have long suffered under this repressive legalised theft at the supermarket checkout and companies like Fonterra who gouge the domestic market so they can sell our products overseas at bargain basement prices. They have never given a shit about the unfair pricing regime they have enforced on the kiwi consumer with products created in their own country.
      It is legalised theft encouraged by the high rate of GST.

  7. In my lifetime there has not been a PM with the appeal of a connection with people that Jacinda has. She is believed and trusted. Certainly there is disappointment with the ambitious housing promises etc but Rome wasn’t built in a day and no one seriously holds her responsible for every detail the party failed to do in this term. There are poor performers in the team but there are very good performers too.
    If the voting population of NZ do not appreciate that we have discovered a remarkable outstanding leader as the rest of the world has done we are truly stuffed. It isn’t just the Covid response. It has been whenever leadership has been required that she has shone. The Jacindamania of 2017 was made of hope for a new kind of leadership, now that “maniacal” hope has been more than fulfilled. Way beyond expectations.
    I think and hope your concerns are unfounded Chris. I think people will vote for Jacinda who would not bother to vote at all if she were not there, in large numbers.
    D J S

  8. In the light of Collins’ two pretty good Leaders’ Debate performances, it is highly likely that the wavering has already begun. More like in light of the New Zealand medias unwavering bias and support for judeath and the national party. I notice every election national get free lobbying and campaigning courtesy of our mainstream media who take advantage of their media role and the fact they have an opportunity through their jobs to voice their one sided political views on the NZ public. Not exactly a level playing field now is it Chris.

    • Are you serious? In March, Labour were looking possibly like a one term Govt, a few polls had National ahead.

      Covid came and we had wall to wall Jacinda. 1pm every day we had Pravda like public statements, and the media printing word for word from the Podium of Truth. Jacinda exploded into the stratosphere (just like NZ did around Key during the earthquakes). No one else could get a word in and if you did, you were blasted by the said media.

      Now Jacinda (and I do mean Jacinda not Labour) through the election is not the only one in the spotlight, and we are actually seeing and hearing from others who have been silenced, “all for the good of the country’s Covid response”

      I’ve had people tell me that this is the first time they had even heard Judith speak (these are non-political people I’ll add) and that is not so surprising. While the country was solely focused on Covid, that focus means that that focus was all on Jacinda.

      If you care for democracy, you should be celebrating.

        • My wife, whom does not live in Siberia does not give a toss about politics up until about a month before the election. Just because you and I enjoy the cut and thrust of political debate, obviously doesn’t mean the rest of the country does.

          She watched the first debate to actually hear what this Judith person was about – her words. I still don’t know who she’s voting for, she does like Jacinda but she voted Act last time…so who knows.

          • Any of you esteemed commentators been to Russia let alone Siberia?

            If you need a nasty name to throw into the mix, try “The land of the Free’.

            Meanwhile, check with Assange and Snowdon and Chelsea

          • That just about sums it up. A large number of disinterested voters who vere one way or another based on all manner of stuff – trends, reality TV debates, personalities, a nice smile, dress sense, you name it … or simply the carrot at the end of the stick (no disrespect BG but boody hell!). But yes it is a democracy: one person two ticks.

            • Er the same could be said about a certain Prime Minister that spent years as a list MP doing nothing except padded her social media profile and appearing in women’s magazines

              • Oh c’mon. She tried for Waitakere, came in as a list mp, and yes, dreamed and dreamed of being PM, but nope, did NOT ever make it. To the great relief of many. Now she’s selling houses, and hoping we’ll forget about the Meths.

  9. Chris, could it be you underestimate New Zealanders’ level of intelligence?
    If Kiwis are actually going to be ‘caught’ by this manipulative spiel National is playing, I’d be very very surprised.
    For now: I’m steady.

  10. When I formed the first ever political party under the new MMP regime, Right of Centre (the name reflecting my economics not social agenda) that initiative was predicated on analysis of voting trends, by a mathematician in my Hobson Executive.

    No Party will ever win outright in its own right.

    Take this clip from Wikipedia:
    Meurant held the view that the new MMP formula for delivering parliamentary seats precluded any single party from achieving an outright majority (except in the most exceptional circumstances). Misguidedly, he anticipated that Prime Minister Bolger and his trusted aide, Finance Minister Bill Birch, (now Sir William Birch), would recognise the mathematical inevitability of the MMP formula and embrace Meurant and the former National party conspirators, in a post-election coalition.

    But Meurant had mis-read the animosity Bolger had for him that, in the final analysis, condemned Meurant’s party to oblivion. Though history did vindicate Meurant’s belief that the MMP formula would not deliver an outright winning party at the polls. In fact, in 1996, the Bolger government finally accepted the inevitability of Meurant’s claim and reached a pact with ACT, the second political party to be formed under MMP. ACT had been formed by former Labour Finance Minister Roger Douglas (now Sir Roger Douglas). National withdrew its candidate from the Wellington Central electorate to ensure ACT’s candidate, Richard Prebble, would succeed in the election.

    THE POINT IS.
    Labour needs a running mate.
    In the past there was Alliance, New Labour, Greens.
    National’s arrogance toward ‘running mates’ saw Bill English go down the drain.

    It’s time for Jacinda’s back room to apply; STRATEGIC VOTING.

    • Ross is correct in all he says here, no majority government is likely ever under MMP.
      As Chris has just figured Jacinda is libal to find her self after the election with no mates to form a Government with, essentially the same position Bill English was in 3 years ago. But hey no Winston to anoint her PM this time round. Many who comment with disstain on NZF will go on to lament the fact that the Crusher is PM because Winston did not survive. For the hinterland the thought of a labour green government implies a partial shut down of the dairy industry and the demise of hill country sheep farms as the trees are planted leading to decimation of small town NZ, a repeat of the 1980’s. This fear is enough to drag the floaters back to National.

      • Clifford

        You sagacity should be a concern to Jacinda’s strategists.

        Kill off Winston and that support will go to National.

  11. @CT.
    “You Know What? Collins Could Win This.”
    Fuck off ! Don’t put it out there man.
    Read this for Christ’s sake. Report on this. Dissect this. Spread this around.
    If the wicked, stumping pudge wins this election she will do so by capitalising on the enduring ignorance of us all.
    And as we all know, ignorance is no defence.
    RNZ
    “Consumerism: Having and Being Had. Eula Biss”
    “Biss argues that there is an assumption that the market system is in some way preordained by the stars as the natural order of things and therefore can’t be changed. This spell of mental passivity must be broken and the system replaced, she says.”
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018766063/consumerism-having-and-being-had-eula-biss
    Lets focus on this sentence.
    “This spell of mental passivity must be broken and the system replaced, she says.”
    If we’ve been entranced by a ‘spell’ which has rendered us down into a state of ‘mental passivity’ then I think it’s a bit urgent to immediately discuss [that] very publicly.
    Eula Biss goes on to say:
    “There’s a moment in the book where I reference a book called A History of the World in Seven Cheap Things and this book is partly about the cost of cheap things… They’re made cheap often by other people’s labour being more or less stolen. I think that’s where the harm is.”
    Biss just described AO/NZ agriculture. collins and her cadre of criminals have us all believing that it is in fact farmers themselves who are to blame. And as most of us know, when scum bags congregate they attract ever more scum bags until the entire work place is scum bags brawling over the spoils like inbred hyenas.
    But it doesn’t stop there for us hapless AO/NZ’ers. The national party has been around since the late 1920’s in its current form after ever conscripting like minded souls to band together to fuck us on the deal.
    Behold The Reform Party. The dawn of the Natzo’s !
    Wikipedia.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_Party_(New_Zealand)
    “The Reform Party, formally the New Zealand Political Reform League, was New Zealand’s second major political party, having been founded as a conservative response to the original Liberal Party. It was in government between 1912 and 1928, and later formed a coalition with the United Party (a remnant of the Liberals), and then merged with United to form the modern National Party. “
    Please allow me to try and nut-shell this for those good people who may be pondering voting for the national party.
    Watch a superb documentary series called ‘Artefact’ on Maori TV.
    https://www.maoritelevision.com/shows/artefact-2
    Take the dawn of colonial oppression and apply Eula Biss’s work.
    Then? Add the dawn of The Reform Party and read how the Liberal Party mated with the United Party to form the National Party.
    Never has the phrase “ Everything’s connected to everything else” been more relevant.
    The Deep State Elite hiding in the shadows of the National Party? The ones who infected, and all but destroyed the Labour Party and by association, we all of us, “..have been working away in the dark against their fellow man”
    (Johnny Cash. )
    And now? The deep state natzo fait accompli perhaps?
    ACT is attracting the Chinese voter.
    ACT. Roger douglas. Natzo douglas. Burrowed into Labour and destroyed it from within. ACT. A tentacle reaching out of the National Party.
    That’s why MMP. But that’s another story. Aye Boys?
    RNZ
    Voters in Chinese community switching from National to ACT, poll suggests
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/427393/voters-in-chinese-community-switching-from-national-to-act-poll-suggests
    Dear you’s who are reading this?
    These times, these days, they are dangerous times and days. More so, I’ll argue, than at any other time in our AO/NZ history.
    I was parked outside a supermarket in Invercargill yesterday when I noticed an unmarked Gulf Stream jet shoot up from the airport and disappear into a clear blue sky at an alarming speed actually.
    Invercargill? Who was on that jet? Who owned that jet? There’s often no parking space left at ZQT so ‘they’ park their little jets up at Dunedin and helicopter to Queenstown from there. But who? Who the fuck are ‘they’?
    Given the above I think we have a right to know, don’t you?

    • CB
      Would be nice if you’s did NOT tell Chris Trotter to Fuck Off! He’s quite entitled to ‘put it out there’. His views are very rational and he articulates his thoughts very clearly – unlike you. Off on a huge tangent again! You’s need you’rs own blog where you’s can spout your foul language as you’s please. May call it ‘Lost Focus’.

      • Pretty confident CT is generating these comments for a reason. Most would agree CT is a top line contributor and writes great prose. However, in the commenters section (that’s us) Countryboy is in a class of his own, and regularly abuses the crap out those who deserve it. Most of us enjoy his ravings and he is pretty much bang on with the analysis thing. I suggest that you don’t agree with CB is due to your right wing preference and he rubs you up the wrong way. But your entitled to your opinion as ever, keep it up.

      • But Herman what about free speech isn’t that what the right wing espouse? Are you saying just because someone uses language you disagree with, it should be banned? Is that not Hypocrisy of the highest order?

  12. Immigrant writes: “could it be you underestimate New Zealanders’ level of intelligence?” Could it actually be the opposite? Remember that in the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis brought about by reckless banking in the USA, New Zealanders voted in a government led by a merchant-banker mercenary in the form of John Key. So, in the midst of the Covid-crisis, and Ardern and her government’s good showing, we might just do the stupid thing all over again in this election. So, yes, it’s a worry. And remember further back. While the prevailing self-made myth around 1981 and The Tour is that good Kiwis stood up against Apartheid, the truth was that only some did. The electoral majority rallied around Muldoon, and voted him and National in on the basis of his/their racist stance in the elections of 1975. 1978 and 1981.

  13. Will definitely be a Triple Headed Monster Again Labour + Greens + Maori Party I will put the house on it. 100% sure, Maori Party will win Tamaki Makarau and Waiariki, and the Northern Maori Seat as Big Chief Hone Harawira has thrown his weight in behind Te Maori Party.

    • I’d like that combo please. Be good for the country, and a nice little change away from the rigid 2 party system that’s entrenched here. And also, fuck the Natz.

    • It would be good if the Maori party could get a few in Parliament. The big problem for Maori voters is that we should be voting to get 2 for one. The Labour incumbents are all on the list and should get back in so we should be trying to get another Maori elected. However going way back the Maori and Mana parties have run Labour down and start praising the National party – thats no way of getting our votes.
      Remember that JT was the Tory’s posterboy for the Mayoralty – so you cant trust the Maori party going back with the Natzs. 2 ticks for greens.

  14. Well, Boomers love Labour, they have enabled house prices to reach all time highs.

    Judith was talking about houses having to come down in some areas. National still have a chance, but with rhetoric like that .. Boomers are flocking to Labour.

    Labour really have served the property class well .. and we all know they vote.

  15. Yes the Nats could win. If we need something to blame for this outcome it its 3 years of “business as usual” from a government that came to power on the promise of doing something “trans-formative”.

    I think there is a real crisis in politics in general globally and New Zealand is no different. The numbers of people I come across who say they have “no idea” who to vote for is growing steadily. I myself am in a quandary as no one party really resonates with me.

    I like the Greens Socialist vibe but I find there stance on free speech troubling and I don’t feel they have done enough to push green policies. I also think their wealth tax is impractical and will scare a lot of voters away.

    I like ACT’s position on free speech and their tax policies are well thought through but I find their stance on the environment and climate change turns me off.

    This leaves the door open for new parties to offer a more cohesive solution. That said will they innovate or do they think people actually like what we already have? I have to wonder given the continued public support for bigger, older parties.

  16. I think people are being unduly negative. A dispassionate observer familiar with NZ elections would find it hard to believe that a party could go from polling 60% to losing an election in a mere month. Least of all a party with the most popular Prime Minister ever (or at least in recent history) who has just led their country in one of the most sucessful responses to Covid in the world, and earned a Nobel peace prize nomination for the way she handled the Christchurch terror attack (aka just doing her job). Add in that the opposition party fell apart, swapped leaders twice, and is now led by a woman so polarising parts of her own party hate her, and a proportion of the public are scared by her.

    Crikey, if Labour can’t win an election with all that going for it, then we won’t see another Labour government in my lifetime.

    • I very much agree with you, Brad. I tell you what . . I tell you what…I tell you what…if a bunch of incompetent, shambolic liars can win and get into power now, then shame,shame,shame on the inconsequential voters.

  17. BG…..Jacinda took a huge risk and needed incredible courage to take responsibility for New Zealand in the way she did: going fast and hard and then being available EVERY DAY for questions and ideas. Not hiding. The best Leadership I have seen anywhere in the world in all my life.
    Yes it worked out very well and we can praise ourselves so lucky to live in this country.
    The input from the opposition – Bridges, Muller, Brownlee, The Fat Cat and Jeepers – has been dangerous and useless. They did get a word in and needed to be blasted!
    To resent Jacinda’s visibility sure is a weird point of view…..
    Yes had it been The Fat Cat, we wouldn’t have been able to sit down and touch base with her daily: too busy looking after the covid sick and the dying.
    Where I come from new strict measures have just been put in place again. Over 6000 deaths later and that’s not counting people who died in rest homes. People were told by their PM that the country could handle ‘an intelligent lockdown’ meaning they didn’t need a true lock down….”better for the economy” was the idea. Yeah right!

    • The best Leadership I have seen anywhere in the world in all my life.

      Yes.
      She should have been met with more respect at those “debates”. Instead, both mods seemed to be treating her as some sort of random equivalent of that lying leader of the falling apart shambles party. Paddy Gower even “put her in her place” a couple of times. How sick is that!

      We have the best. And she’s being weighed against someone who has shown herself to be totally untrustworthy, and is made to appear as somehow equivalent. Something is very wrong with this set up.

  18. If the middle and working classes are sucked in by JC’s current “nice Judith” routine (which still comes across as nastier than anyone I would choose to deal with) then we as a country will deserve everything that comes our way.

  19. Has ANYONE got an opinion about my comment above? Anyone at all?
    Does anyone else make the connection between our history and our present?
    Any farmer out there? What do you think about my direct allegations that you are being fucked by the same political party who claims sole rights to your hearts and minds? And, of course and most importantly, your pockets.
    No one? C’mon? There must be someone. Some one?
    Any town people out there? I think I’ve made a reasonably good job of showing just how corrupt our base politic is, don’t you?
    Labour, National and their little satellite diversionary playthings in the form of the lessor, coalition parties are corrupt as fuck but worse they’re one and the same. It’s there in plain fucking English AND te reo Maori !
    Can I say, here’s the kind of [woman] politician we really need. Not teeth, hugs and lies. Not threats, manipulations and bribery. And of course, more lies.
    Katie Porter
    https://youtu.be/qYvW4pm0_fI
    Originally found here on
    The Guardian.
    “The California congresswoman used the old-school device to win free Covid-19 testing for Americans and she’s not done yet.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/01/katie-porter-whiteboard-congresswoman

    • “These times, these days, they are dangerous times and days. More so, I’ll argue, than at any other time in our AO/NZ history”.
      Agreed. And yes something quite sinister about mystery jet streams. Who the FUCK are they!? Not for us to know Countryboy. Do we have a clue of even half the stuff that goes on? Principles, promises, lies, deceit. Where’s the line? In my view though its more blurred through blue lenses.

    • Your comments are heeded, CB.

      I look forward to and always make a point of heading straight to your posts, – that are most often times spectacular and poignant viewpoints, and always colorfully speckled with vivid mental imagery,… breaking down issues into simple issues of morality, fairness, and indeed,… egalitarianism and a fair go.

      Issues that the neo liberal eggheads want us to believe that are ‘oh so complex and too difficult to contemplate ‘, – yet are just academic mechanisms and excuses to throw people off the scent. The scent of skullduggery , – particularly of the far right wing, – and in these days, of the neo liberal kind.

      Keep posting. You bring joy to many people and your cleverly simple, basic honesty which speaks,- and indeed mocks! ,- those who think they are being so clever in their deception and their viciousness,… makes you an asset to TDB.

  20. Just how is The Donald so scary for you leftie scum, is it because your vaunted leadership is coming apart at the BLM seems?
    Just because you lot are terrified of the flu bug getting around, get a grip and grow a pair,Crucify Anti-Fa time is nigh

  21. Oh bollocks.
    As incompetent as this government is, it will get a second term.
    The only question is to whether the greens will be there with them.
    If the greens get in, then labour will need them to form the government.
    If the greens don’t get it, then Labour will have enough of the residual vote to govern alone.

  22. Another thing to take into account is that people are actually really unnerved by Collins and Seymour getting into power and running the country. On social media, I have seen comments like ‘terrified, scared, depressed, anxious, physically sick’ and ‘frightened’. One man commented that ‘I should not have to be scared of politicians’, while another said ‘I really pray that NZ people will see through National and their lies’. I think that people did not need Nationals stressful shit as a pandemic rages in the world with over a million people dead and am hoping that people will resent National as a result, both now and after the election. Respect for New Zealand and its brand will plummet if this Trump-like duo get into power, taking us backwards, and the darkest of times will follow.

    • I’m not going to say I’m going to get up to speed with the Trump bashing, or follow a presubscribed way of thinking,… but I do suspect Collins is apeing Muldoon and Trump also…the body language, the scowls, the constant interjections 2 minutes after she said ‘manners’ to Adern and proceeded to interrupt, interject, talk over,… incredibly rude and obnoxious, and worst of all?,… hypocritical, esp following hot on the heels of declaring herself a ‘christian’. I found that particularly OFFENSIVE !

      THIS ,… is what she really looked like to me ! Cast in the role of Pontius Pilate.

      PILATE AND CHRIST
      https://youtu.be/U7jRVMcA53A?t=86

    • you must read a different social media to me . Labour Green Maori combination would see this country go backwards National Act would take us out of our debt quicker

      • Trevor Sennitt,

        You’re probably right Trevor…..BUT, the speed we come out of debt should be a distant second to the manner we come out of debt. If you have essential services and infrastructure being cut and deliberately underfunded to create another farcical “rock star economy” who will be the biggest losers? The wealthy will do magnificently as they do under National, the rest of NZ will be brutally divided and suffering in every area that matters. The outcome for NZ’s people would be horrendous, all the while National would display their usual complete indifference …..while congratulating themselves. An F1 car going at rocket speed is great….but only if it doesn’t cause crashes that kill the crowd who came to watch the race.

  23. Nope. Your just shit stirring Mr. Trotter. I don’t believe Crusher has done anything but make the Natz look worse than they already are. It’s not like the horrid Natz could form a competent Govt. Nothings changed.
    I look forward to Bombers view.

    • That’s quite enough out of you. We are very very lucky in New Zealand to be having a functioning voting block in the centre who are motivated to vote in the best interest of the country and not simply for themselves. Without these well educated and properly motivated people revolution would be possible just not today comrade. Not this country.

    • Whilst I don’t think National have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, it is a bit rich calling them incompetent.
      Labour is the most incompetent bunch of fuckwits to have the Government benches since Rob’s mob 35 years ago.

  24. I believe I speak for a significant proportion of the population when I say, “NOOOOOOOOOO!”

    Seriously, if that odious shrew is elected PM vast tracts of the country will start seriously contemplating self-harm. She’s done zero to prove she’s anything other than mean-spirited, vindictive and cruel. National has no plan other than to fling money they don’t have at problems they’re only pretending to care about. Anyone who believes they’ve suddenly developed a deep and abiding compassion for the poor, the jobless, beneficiaries, the disabled, students, or anyone not inclined to vote for them, is either delusional or has spent the last decade living in a drain. They are a cancer and should be treated as such.

    Is Jacinda perfect? Fuck no. But she’s light years ahead of a smirking bag of poison like Collins.

  25. The scars of the National parties last reign are still too fresh on the countries collective minds to have been forgotten. Its only been 3 years since they were last in power.

    • The scars are still here for sure!

      But so are the new lot of 500,000 IMPORTED voters, from during that reign of the Nats. They could well swing an election.

  26. I think this is unnecessary panic by Trotter and emotional posts by other Labour supporters. Labour is polling close to 50% and Greens are inching ahead and is at 7%. Even if they drop a point or two on election night, they will be around 5.5% on election night and will be back in parliament. Don’t get tensed up unnecessarily. As long as Phil Twyford doesn’t screw up anything big in the next 2 weeks, Labour is sleepwalking to victory. People know Jacinda saved their lives from a COVID disaster.

  27. Collins is using the frequently-used tactic of telling ever-bigger lies as time goes on.
    It has worked well in the past and will probably work well this time too.
    She knows she is dealing with a scientifically illiterate and financially illiterate populace. And she knows she doesn’t have to deliver on anything she says during the campaigning. It seems that most voters have extremely short memories. That’s if they even understood what was said at the time.

    The fact that her entire narrative is absolute bullshit -like today I heard her announce she would save ALL the jobs in the tourism sector when anyone with a brain knows tourism is dead in the water, never to return -doesn’t matter.

    All National want is to get their snouts back into the big feeding trough (the small one just won’t do). And they will lies egregiously to do so. And the dimwitted populace won’t even know they’ve been lied to and scammed yet again, until it’s way too late.

    Of course Jacinda could easily demolish Collins’ narrative. But to do so, SHE would have to start telling the truth….something she is extremely reluctant to do.

    Never mind, everything is still on track for the biggest crash in history, and whoever manages to con the electors will be up the creek without a paddle.

    r.

  28. C’mon, just check out the husbands…one dresses up as a linesman and stripmines your back yard, the other quietly gets on with support stuff and was the ONLY person in kiwi show/politico business to write a small but sincere eulogy for Aaron Tokona, (Weta, Fly My Pretties, Cairo Knife Fight et al) who passed away this year. Spot the difference, Chris.

  29. JC or JA*,? Expletive deletion. Trump or Hillary Bidday or T rump?
    Things have descended. In time, JA, will be seen as NZ’s O bumma
    Hope and small change.

  30. Aotearoa is a right wing conservative nation of shop keepers and is intuitively National leaning. They have flocked to Jacinda when they felt in fear of their lives earlier in the year but are moving back to their natural home. Judith with help from their media friends are back in contention and with MMP it could go down to the wire now we have beaten covid and are all safe and well and enjoying a life of luxury without limitations.
    An upset is entirely possible now that Jacinda has made the wealthy and wanna be’s safer in their paradise thanks to a Labour PM who upholds the status quo of neoliberal market economics. There will be no Labour majority on election night and those smug Labour campaign strategists could quite possibly be given a real fright with a National – ACT -Maori Tamihere government a possibility.

    • ‘Aotearoa is a right wing conservative nation of shop keepers and is intuitively National leaning. They have flocked to Jacinda when they felt in fear of their lives earlier in the year but are moving back to their natural home.’

      ‘now we have beaten covid and are all safe and well’

      Utter rubbish mosa, both comments. While there are a lot of conservatives (read handbrakes), there a many more of the ‘other lot’, just look who’s in power and will be again next term.
      Beaten Covid aye? Another outbreak is only just a matter of time and boom, lockdown again. Could be years before this virus is beaten.

      • ‘now we have beaten covid and are all safe and well’
        Greenbus two things
        1 I was talking about the complacency that has set in since the move to level 2 and 1 amd my attempt at sarcasm.
        2 The other lot are only marginally better than the Natz and thanks to market economics almost indistinguishable.

  31. Chris its about time you started backing the left (Labour & Greens). Ive seen you on TV with Sherson and you are always agreeing with her. She never talks the National party down. Then I saw Josie Pagani in her last 2 appearances on TV also agreeing with Sherson. You and Josie are the only social democrats that get a chance to respond to the Tory MS media. Surely you can find a reply promoting the left. At least Simon Wilson questions Judith’s lies and Marcus Lush will question lunatic listeners with some of their views. By the way the Greens are the true left party to complement Labour. Labour need to help Chloe and even Tracey Martin to win their electorates.
    Imagine Natz and ACT – they dont like unemployed, Maori, Indians, poor, beneficiary’s (including Superannuants’), homeless, etc.
    2 TICKS GREEN.

    • “You and Josie are the only social democrats that get a chance to respond to the Tory MS media…”

      You ever think that’s by design? No disrespect to Chris, but I suspect his opinions are deemed ‘acceptable’ and ‘fit for public consumption’, whereas someone with a little more mongrel in them, someone prone to articulating unpalatable truths about the questionable character of some of our leading politicians, would be less likely to get airtime. I mean, Bomber’s pretty feisty (granted, he lets his passions run away with him sometimes), but he’s basically had to cobble together his own soapbox. You don’t generally see the MSM rolling out the welcome mat when Martyn’s on a vitriolic roll over National’s latest rectal prolapse of dishonesty and scumbaggery. We can’t upset the sponsors. We especially can’t upset the donors. And we don’t want to upset unnamed people who scuttle about the corridors of power and whisper scandalous nothings into our ears for later publication.

      People who vote Blue because “my old man was National to the core” and “that lovely Mr Key has such a charming way about him” don’t want to be told the people they’re electing to power are rapacious ethical wastelands. Red or Blue? Heads or tails? Principles or self-interest? “Do I vote for a liar and dissembler who will keep me living in the manner to which I’ve become accustomed, or do I vote for a youthful idealist promising to address climate change but who may compel me to pay more tax? And what about THE ECONOMY?!” It’s all dreadfully uncomfortable.

      And that’s why you have Josie Pagani wheeled out to kneecap Labour while pretending to be sympathetic to all that Labour ostensibly represents. Josie’s ‘safe’. She’s predictable, as opposed to being one of those angry, frothing loons given to waving placards and flinging dildos. Nana doesn’t want to see that on the telly of an evening. It’ll ruin her cuppa. And the best part — the very best part, is you get to claim you’re entirely ‘fair and balanced’. “No, no… you can’t go accusing us of partisan bias! We had a card-carrying leftie on the panel!” Mike Williams’ job on Jim Mora’s show seemed to be to agree with anything screeching opportunist Matthew Hooten projectile vomited into the ether. This shit plays out over and over again almost every single election cycle. It’s both hilarious and depressing at the same time.

      This is all opinion, mind you. It’s entirely possible I could be completely wrong. 🙂

  32. If Judith plays this right she’ll have this election in the bag. Labour made a lot of promises three years ago and didn’t deliver. Not on one or two promises but on the vast majority of them. Kiwibuild 10,000 new houses per year – at the moment about 29,300 behind target. An absolute and utter failure and no one to blame but themselves. 100 million trees planted. Given up counting on that. What about the workers that they are supposed to represent? Labour doesn’t want to know them now. It was the blue collar worker that formed the Labour Party in the first place. Now it’s full of bourgeois middle and upper middle class urbanites who wouldn’t know what a working class job was and definitely never worked one. The people who are under represented, those who are the working poor, the poor and destitute? Labour doesn’t want to know them. Labour Party”… strategists assessed the poorest and most marginalised New Zealanders as being permanently alienated from electoral politics …” just show you what the Labour Party really think about those who need govt help the most. They can be pushed to one side because they don’t count. Yep, typical caring Labour Party. Carrying my arse.

    • Ngatimozart,

      Staggers me that wankers just don’t fucking get it.

      A Labour flagship policy Kiwibuild has been a fail but ALL Governments get it wrong along the way. Labour owned their fail. National NEVER own any of their long list of epic fails. Labour acknowledged there was a housing crisis. National denied there was during their 9 excruciating years and displayed complete indifference toward all the tens of thousands of young kiwi families being significantly disadvantaged. That aside, the Kiwibuild is absolutely no reason to consider the divisive National Party being led by the despicable and completely untrustworthy Collins to take over with all that entails.

      Once again another blue troll attempts to get traction on the planting tress “failure”. They have completely overlooked other massive issues NZ has been struck down with that have obviously significantly hindered progress. You have heard about the deadly pandemic?

      The fact you can’t see a caring Government and PM that puts people before $$, doesn’t mean your perspective is correct. Bias and ignorance hinders many people.

      Yes, Labour represents the workers. Obviously you missed the minimum wage increases etc etc etc etc and the divisive National Party bleating about that every step of the way. The National Party up to it’s usual tricks. Create a low wage economy, profit from it and fuck the workforce…nice.

      National now apparently care about Hospitals and health professionals. Clearly you don’t know any health professionals who are viewing National’s farcical caring with the contempt it deserves.

      What is National’s flagship policy? TAXCUTS as an economic stimulus. The people who would spend the money and actually stimulate the economy get the least. Those that will save it and not stimulate the economy get the most. Only a troglodyte would see that as an economic stimulus. It’s nothing more than a desperate and cynical attempt to buy votes at ANY price by National. How ironic that those most likely to vote Labour get the least but those most likely to vote National or ACT get the most. What a coincidence. How will these TAXCUTS be funded? oh that’s right. The money will be taken from the emergency Covid fund designed to help NZ get through another Covid outbreak if and when that occurs. Unfuckingbelievable!

      National are an outrageous disgrace who will be sent to the nearest landfill on the 17th October. You best have plenty of tissues on standby.

  33. Honestly Chris, you lose credibility with inane threads like this.

    In late July 2017 in the days leading up to Andrew Little stepping down as Labour leader, you made statements about Ardern that looked totally off the mark and actually questioned your relevance and wisdom. You stated it would be a huge blunder for Ardern to take over as Labour leader from Andrew Little if he steps down and how she should wait until after the election to take on that role. In other words, Labour should concede the 2017 election and Ardern’s moment would come later. Not only was that a ridiculous action for any contender for Government to even consider but it completely undervalued the significance of Ardern and how many people were on standby waiting for her arrival at the plate. All I could do was look at you and question how could someone in your position be so far off the mark with your statements.

    Ardern took over and the very predictable game changer had arrived. I assumed that would be the last we ever heard from Chris Trotter. This thread and your statements are every bit as woeful and off the mark as your calls in July 2017. They are both an insult to New Zealand voters and again totally undervalue Ardern.

    You have also not given any weight to other huge aspects.

    1) These “debates” have been a farce. The format is not conducive to actual helpful debate. They are entertainment value only. There is little enough time to give meaningful answers to questions as it is and Collins knows this. She has been repeatedly afforded the opportunity to farcically interrupt Ardern’s answers and then deliberately talk over her when Ardern is making excellent points. What makes this situation even worse is that vested interest commentators etc are seeing this as a “strength” from Collins. Thankfully, these commentators are in no way ANY reflection of the NZ voters. It is absolutely clear that the divisive Collins is attempting to hoodwink NZ at the moment about who and what she actually is. Apparently, she is now softer, funny, caring and relatable. She’s even resorted to using a cancer diagnosis of an extended family member to chase the sympathy vote. Some commentators may celebrate that and fall for it hook, line and sinker but most other people see straight through it. They know Collins is a desperate, divisive and despicable individual. A person only leading National at this time due to the complete lack of other options from the “strong and impressive team”. There is an entire chapter of the book Dirty Politics devoted to Collins and her previous abuses of power and position to smear and attack rivals / enemies via the reprehensible Cameron Slater. Why are our alleged gutless media not talking about this? Because they are either intimidated by the bully Collins, or vested interest. I can confidently bet my arms and legs that had it been Ardern taking up an entire chapter of Dirty Politics, Tova O’Brien, Duncan Garner, Mike Hosking, Kate Hawkesby, Heather D.A, Barry Soper, Mark Richardson, TVNZ, Newshub, Stuff, MSN, The NZ Herald etc etc etc would be each running an all day every day crusade about it attacking Ardern on behalf of the National Party. Judith Collins is easily the most unsuitable candidate in NZ history to apply for the role of Prime Minister yet she’s being gifted a free pass. NZ voters will not do so. What’s unfolding in NZ at this time is our alleged media being exposed for what they are. This action will be completed on the 17th October when reality arrives.

    2) It’s accepted by most people with a brain bigger than a sultana that these “debates” will have no bearing on the election result. Judith Collins supporters will carry on supporting her. Jacinda Ardern supporters will continue supporting her.

    • Well some of the people can be fooled some of the time and some of the people can be fooled all of the time, but all of the people can’t be fooled all of the time…..unless the are National supporters.

      • Covid is pa,

        The despicable Collins is very happy to use any tragic situation to suck up a vote and dog whistle.

        She’s happily attempted to undermine and destroy the all-important public confidence in NZ’s pandemic handling even if that ultimately results in a deadly outcome. Ardern getting 90%+ approval in her Covid response is infuriating to Collins as it’s getting in the way of decades-old personal ambition.

        Imagine for a moment who would be Collins’s personal advisor if she ever became PM…CAMERON SLATER.

        How long would it take for Collins’s biggest vested interest supporters that just happen to reside in BEJING to come out of the shadows and appear on scene?

        What we have at this time in our beautiful country is a totally untrustworthy wild Bullmastiff with rabies circling outside a primary school…..while masquerading as a gentle and funny Golden Labrador puppy. It’s that bad and that insidious. Eyes open people. Wakey wakey. Where is our alleged media? They are helping to mask the horrendous reality while cheerleading that Labrador puppy.

  34. There is an election. Anyone could win who is in the race. If Collins wins we get the scummy, people against people, hate style country Trump wants in his country.

    If people here are that thick to not discern what Collins is about I guess we are stuffed.
    If lionising nastiness, selfishness, lack of empathy and understanding and domination are the way we choose, so be it. Maybe the message is don’t let the bastards do it.

    The golden ages of advertising have us an undiscerning audience bankrupt of critical skills. That Collins could get near 20% support is all the evidence needed.

  35. So Collins finds out the New Conservatives have registered 1% support in the polls. Collins knows that support has come from the National Party so she repeatedly goes on a crusade to snatch that 1% back. She repeatedly spouts off how she is a Christian during the debates and media interviews. Is there anything that thing won’t do to try and suck in a couple of votes?

    Being a Christian is a personal choice and is absolutely no guarantee that person is of good character. Anyone remember the Christian Heritage Party and it’s leader Graham Capill?

    Capill was sentenced to nine years jail in July 2005 after admitting sex crimes against three young girls, starting in 1990, the year after he became party leader.

    Was Collins a Christian when she obscenely abused her position in Government and waged smear campaigns against her political enemies via the diabolical Cameron Slater etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc?

    I don’t attend church but I know many that do. Once again it’s a very personal thing and not generally something people spout off about like a merit badge of honour. Despite that, Collins today had cameras with her in a church to film her kneeling and praying. This is truly nauseating and the epitome of an extremely dangerous and cynical politician who will stop at nothing in her quest to fulfill her life ambition of becoming the Prime Minister. Collins farcically attempting to turn dirty politics into squeaky clean politics. Another epic fail. Thankfully, most Kiwi’s don’t have intelligence quotients in single digits.

  36. The use of fear is exactly how Ardern has lifted her popularity and it is nothing to do with fear of austerity from the right or the likes.
    She has played heavily on the average persons fear of death (and it has worked) when the reality is 99% of Covid cases are mild and the mortality rate (worldwide) is less than 1%. Its quite pathetic but a high percentage her constituency people are low IQ and not capable of thinking for themselves. Hopefully they will wake up before or on election day

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