Can Trump Win and how does it impact NZ?

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Right after our own election in September, all eyes will turn on the American nightmare for their November show down.

We need to care about who runs the American Military Industrial Complex because our Government answers to their Government.

So can Trump win?

All polls show he is going to get crucified

Trump claimed six states that had been held by Barack Obama at the previous election: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. Biden’s task is to win some of them back. He does not need all of them.

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Let’s return to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, this time at a state level.

Among the states Trump won last time, Biden is currently ahead in North Carolina (by 3 per cent), Ohio (1.5 per cent), Wisconsin (6.4), Florida (7.8), Michigan (8.4), Pennsylvania (7.4), Arizona (4) and Minnesota (11.4).

If those numbers were reflected on election day, Biden would win easily, with more than 350 electoral votes.

…the vast majority of Americans are genuinely exhausted, angry and bitter towards Trump, so Trump’s ability to win are reliant on 4 weapons at Trumps disposal.

Culture War Backlash – Trump’s provocation of BLM protestors is purposely trying to get increasingly extreme reactions so that middle America recoils from the more violent clashes.  Trump’s calculation here is that middle America will stop caring about Black Lives and start worrying about a total break down of the law and order that makes them feel safe.

Voter Suppression – The pandemic will impact this by shutting down polling booths. Democrats believe the virus is real so might not vote where as large chunks of Republican vote don’t believe in viruses.

War with China – Trump’s erratic nature and political need to fight an external enemy to rally voters to the ripped and ragged flag he now represents means escalation and miscalculation are all on the table.

Burnt Earth –  The most damaging thing Trump can do is a prolonged and destructive burnt earth tactic to legally fight a close election and damage the entire political landscape until he is literally removed from power on January 20th.

And even in the scenarios in which Biden’s team eventually won—that is, secured possession of the White House at noon on Inauguration Day, 2021—Team Trump by then had thoroughly poisoned the political system.

It diverted public resources to Trump personally.

It preemptively pardoned Trump associates and family members, and tried to pardon Trump himself from criminal charges including money laundering and tax evasion.

It intentionally tried to cause long-term economic damage so as to prevent early economic recovery—and boost Republican chances in the 2022 elections.

It destroyed, hid, or privatized public records.

It tried to sabotage the census to favor Republican redistricting after 2020.

It refused to cooperate with the incoming administration during the transition period, in ways that aggravated both the pandemic response and economic recovery.

And it sowed pervasive mistrust in the integrity of U.S. elections in ways that would polarize and embitter U.S. politics long after 2020.

 

NZ could be easily get dragged into a vortex of American and Chinese interests that have every potential of igniting in the South China Sea into full blown military conflict because of Trump’s erratic and increasingly desperate behaviour.

The first challenge for the next Government will be attempting to avoid Trump’s implosion.

 

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11 COMMENTS

  1. It is sad that China didn’t pown the pandemic as this was the worst war on the world we have to face is Covid 19 as it will kill many of the worlds most weakened and poor for a long time to come; all at the hands of a secret Laboratory that has now reportedly destroyed the evidence of what it was so we could’ve destroyed the virus before the pandemic spread occurred.

    China is not innocent here.

    • A reference would be good here CG. It’s hard to see any state deliberately having released this thing if that’s what you are implying. No country is unaffected. It doesn’t seem to be to anyone’s benefit. Unless it is a plot to reduce the world’s population to a sustainable level which hasn’t worked because it doesn’t seem to kill many that were not about to die anyway.
      D J S

  2. Yeah, well the criminals and clowns that make up the US administration and half their military may still think they are a force to be reckoned but few outside America do.

    ‘The heart of the matter in the South China Sea

    The battle for the contested maritime region is over before the shooting even begins and China has won’

    …Once again, nobody paid attention, because the actual facts on the sea are stark. Anything that moves in the South China Sea – China’s crucial maritime trade artery – is at the mercy of the PLA, which decides if and when to deploy their deadly DF-21D and DF-26 “carrier killer” missiles.

    There’s absolutely no way the US Pacific Fleet can win a shooting war in the South China Sea.

    Electronically jammed

    A crucial Chinese report, unavailable and not referred to by Western media, and translated by Hong Kong-based analyst Thomas Wing Polin, is essential to understand the context.

    The report refers to US Growler electronic warplanes rendered totally out of control by electronic jamming devices positioned on islands and reefs in the South China Sea.

    According to the report, “after the accident, the United States negotiated with China, demanding that China dismantle the electronic equipment immediately, but it was rejected. These electronic devices are an important part of China’s maritime defense and are not offensive weapons. Therefore, the US military’s request for dismantling is unreasonable.”

    It gets better:

    “On the same day, former commander Scott Swift of the US Pacific Fleet finally acknowledged that the US military had lost the best time to control the South China Sea. He believes that China has deployed a large number of Hongqi 9 air defense missiles, H-6K bombers, and electronic jamming systems on islands and reefs. The defense can be said to be solid. If US fighter jets rush into the South China Sea, they are likely to encounter their ‘Waterloo.’”

    The bottom line is that the systems – including electronic jamming – deployed by the PLA on islands and reefs in the South China Sea, covering more than half of the total surface, are considered by Beijing to be part of the national defense system.’

    …Time for COC

    So what about the US notion of “freedom of navigation”?

    In imperial terms, “freedom of navigation”, from the West Coast of the US to Asia – through the Pacific, the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait and the Indian Ocean – is strictly an issue of military strategy.

    The US Navy simply cannot imagine dealing with maritime exclusion zones – or having to demand an “authorization” every time they need to cross them. In this case the Empire of Bases would lose “access” to its own bases.

    This is compounded with trademark Pentagon paranoia, gaming a situation where a “hostile power” – namely China – decides to block global trade. The premise in itself is ludicrous, because the South China Sea is the premier, vital maritime artery for China’s globalized economy.

    So there’s no rational justification for a Freedom of Navigation (FON) program. For all practical purposes, these aircraft carriers like the Ronald Reagan and the Nimitz showboating on and off in the South China Sea amount to 21st century gunboat diplomacy. And Beijing is not impressed.

    As far as the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is concerned, what matters now is to come up with a Code of Conduct (COC) to solve all maritime conflicts between Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and China.

    Next year, ASEAN and China celebrate 30 years of strong bilateral relations. There’s a strong possibility they will be upgraded to “comprehensive strategic partner” status.

    Because of Covid-19, all players had to postpone negotiations on the second reading of the single draft of COC. Beijing wanted these to be face to face – because the document is ultra-sensitive and for the moment, secret. Yet they finally agreed to negotiate online – via detailed texts.

    It will be a hard slog, because as ASEAN made it clear in a virtual summit in late June, everything has to be in accordance with international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS).

    If they can all agree on a COC by the end of 2020, a final agreement could be approved by ASEAN in mid-2021. Historic does not even begin to describe it – because this negotiation has been going on for no less than two decades.

    Not to mention that a COC invalidates any US pretension to secure “freedom of navigation” in an area where navigation is already free.

    Yet “freedom” was never the issue. In imperial terminology, “freedom” means that China must obey and keep the South China Sea open to the US Navy. Well, that’s possible, but you gotta behave. That’ll be the day when the US Navy is “denied” the South China Sea. You don’t need to be Mahan to know that’ll mean the imperial end of ruling the seven seas.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-heart-matter-south-china-sea

    Trump can waffle and bluster all he likes. None of his ranting will change the facts.

    Anyway, the likelihood of a US financial meltdown before November increases by the day.

    The other interesting aspect of the tragic US comedy show is that Joe Biden is almost senile and incapable of governing his own household, so the chance of him getting elected is quite high.

  3. To me Trump and probably most of his family are insane.

    Trump will do everything he can to hold onto power. He doesn’t want to lose the Gravy-Boat that he is enjoying.

    I mean it’s likely the American taxpayers, many of which are now unemployed and suffering COVID-19, are funding Trump’s life-style, travel costs, wife’s clothing allowance, etc.etc.etc

    Out of what is happening in America all Donald Trump cares about is Donald Trump and family. He perhaps deems himself the Godfather and whatever his immediate family does albeit killing a lion in Africa or worshipping the Godfather(Trump)is all fine with him.

    I think in regards to Melania Trump that once her looks are gone Donald Trump will be gone and that is onto the next fertile vagina of an attractive young white blonde female.

    New Zealand is caught between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea when it comes to America and China’s Problems. Sadly I wouldn’t trust either political system in either country. They are(puns intended again) six of one and half a dozen of the other when it comes to bullying tactics on other countries and lets say territories eg Hong Kong.

    But then looking at America’s tactic of diverting attention away from all the problems in America and blaming China shows America really has far greater problems than it cares to admit.

  4. From a particularly stark and incisive article on Scoop:
    CNBC News reports that Americans are looking at the possibility of up to 40 million evictions in the coming months as unemployment payments expire and a federal moratorium on evictions runs out.
    ——–
    While ordinary Americans are worried about being evicted from their homes by the tens of millions, the nation’s billionaires are warning the nation of the dangers of communism. After recently drawing fire for repeatedly cheerleading last year’s vicious fascist coup of Bolivia’s leftist government, billionaire Elon Musk is now tweeting anti-Marx memes and warning that leftists are “losing the middle”.
    ——–
    This is America. This is what America is designed to be. The head of a vast, globe-spanning empire needs its rank-and-file citizens to be poor, powerless, busy and brainwashed at all times, because a lot of power and money rides on keeping the riff raff away from the gears of the imperial machine.
    Remember that Poverty is Weaponised by the Elite

  5. I read that pollster’s in the US were getting as high as 20% of people being sampled giving a “fuck you” / “none of your business” to answering poll questions. Now I could be going out on a limb here, but I suspect that most of those folks aren’t Biden supporters. The apparent swing toward Democrat seems insurmountable, but when 20% of “likely to vote” people aren’t answering the question, imo anything can happen in November.

  6. Apart from also being a misogynist and racist Trump is the master of not only slamming what he calls fake news but also creating it and unfortunately there are many, many low intelligent people who, because they display similar personal characteristics support him and believe he is doing a good job. These people are easily identifiable because they walk around wearing the repulsive MAGA caps and spewing out in Trump-like fashion the nonsense rhetoric that he spits out.

  7. He’s done – put a fork in him. If Georgia and Texas are toss ups you’re a loooong way from being competitive in the rest belt, Florida and the southwest.

    The only thing that will save him is if Biden’s Alzheimers deteriorates and is shown up big time in the debates. Even then he’ll probably win and then the liberal left get what they want a black female in the oval office. Harris would be the best pick as she appears the least woke out of a bad bunch. Harris to be US’s first female president by December 2021.

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