Boom. Following the TV3 Poll, TVNZ says…





TDB Recommends

ACT: 5%

The TV3 Poll had…

Labour – 60%

National – 25%

Greens – 5.7%

NZ First – 2%

ACT – 3.3%

So what can we divine from the Polling Gods?

LABOUR – Labour are on their way to a majority Government

NATIONAL – They’re lucky to be on 32%, Judith is a car crash for them.

GREENS – Will end up under the 5% threshold and Chloe is their only chance of victory.

NZ FIRST – Winston is dead, Shane Jones is his only chance to win in Northland.

ACT – The fucking woke gave him the momentum last year with their insane war on free speech – you reap what you sow Wokies.

The Waterstone 2020 Election Podcast TVNZ Poll hot takes is online 8pm tonight. 


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  1. This is strategic

    If you want Labour as your government; vote Green for your party vote.

    Strategic thinking Natz will be calibrating an ACT party vote.
    Strategic thinking Labour will be calibrating a Green party vote.

    This is strategic planning.

    Want to know the maths?
    As much as tactical voting may make you vomit.

    Absorb and calibrate – at your benefit or peril.

      • Mandatory voting to compel non or disillusioned voters to vote might result in higher tallies for minor parties with no realistic chance.

        What I mean is: if I’m so pissed off with my party and won’t vote for them but will not support their traditional adversary, and rather than no vote I am compelled to vote, I’d probably vote for Mad Hatters or some other Irrelevant entry in the race.

        • Thanks Ross…
          “Mandatory voting to compel non or disillusioned voters to vote might result in higher tallies for minor parties with no realistic chance.”
          Yes, it ‘might’. It also might not. And if disillusioned voters don’t vote at all, we’ll never know.
          No one’s more disillusioned than me but I’m not voting national nor any other rightie nut mainly because I hate the bastards but also because I loath the bastards.
          The neoliberal right are dangerous and damaging to us and as they build their extreme wealth, we go without at a most modest level. Can’t pay the power bill, the rates, the WOF and REG, can’t afford Christmas, can’t afford their kids birthdays etc while little mickey fay flies over Auckland in his private helicopter.
          That, is what not voting after being psychologically disengaged will do for a democracy like ours.
          “…I am compelled to vote, I’d probably vote for Mad Hatters or some other Irrelevant entry in the race.”
          But would you though? I don’t thinks there would be as many random pot-shotters shooting their votes in the air as you might think. I think you might be underestimating people who’ve become marginalised unwittingly because they think that if they don’t need to vote, then their vote’s not worth the effort so why bother?
          The dead end pot hole that many people find themselves in politically is precisely where the natzo’s and their hangers on want them to be. Un caring, acquiescing, she’ll be right-ing. Beaten down and bogged down by debt to wallow in a sense of helpless despair while the big money makers make sure everything swings their way from one election to the other.
          You stood as the National Party candidate for Hobson in the 1987 election so you might know more about that than me.
          I think MMP and casual voting is the perfect pairing to comfort those who’re not compelled to vote. MMP’s an abstract way of burying people in a complex malaise that seems bewildering at the best of times and if they don’t have to vote then fuck it. I’ll stay in bed.
          It’s my opinion, that MMP is perfectly meshed into non mandatory voting.
          Just look at how Labour’s hands are tied behind its back by NZ First?
          FPTP plus mandatory voting. Please, thanks, cheers.

          • The truth hasn’t changed since 1984. A strong socialist govt. Or for electoral purposes now a ‘war govt’. We who’ve followed since 84 know there is no instant solution, just continuous shoulder to the wall.

            My bruv who got lit up about politics by Sanders is anti-vaccine and probably Billie TK enthused by now. Just ‘t’Cause’ as my g.grandfather called it, which only got him material advantages when he was 70. Not really, he was far too frank for the newly respectable Labour Party. Tho’ Walter Nash spoke at his funeral.

            Truth remains the same.

    • Nothing to calibrate, I told you so doesn’t have a measurable variable.
      Most of the MMP elections have required a coalition to govern, but the past doesn’t always repeat, a simple party majority is within the bounds of possibility & it will occur whenever voting patterns shift markedly.
      It doesn’t take a mob of foresight to see that Ardern has inspired such a shift, albeit in the most tawdry & parochial way – last visited upon us by Mr Lange. Giving kiwis something to skite about while encouraging citizens to feel that they have gathered as kiwis to bring about the skiteable moment.

      Lets hope that the price for Aotearoa getting 5 minutes of fame is not so high this time eh!

      Still I’m not betting the farm on that.

      Although Ross Meurant long preached the benefits of rogernomics, when it happened, it was an off the wall, egregiously unexpected blasphemy for most kiwi voters

      There is no certainty that Ardern who has been conspicuously reticent in elucidating that tiresome policy stuff this time around, won’t drag some ugly & overtly fascist rabbit outta the cabinet coven’s hat on victory.

      Yeah yeah – she wouldn’t do that blah blah. I agree, she is unlikely do pull that stunt, but it is our job as citizens to make her elucidate 2 or 3 major policies – before we vote so we can be certain she will not.

      Airy-fairy concepts cannot be accepted. Voters must demand some concrete policy answers before we tick any box.

      Asserting that Jacinda cannot be expected to give the opposition ammo to attack her is unacceptable.
      Stop & think for a bit about the global op-out – that is when a political party of the center altho allegedly “left” or “right” according to the policies they enacted 50 years ago before they became so immovably corporate.

      For most of the last 50 years when a political party has been successful despite offering little in the way of substantial goals to be achieved in their next term of government, claiming they don’t want to feed raw meat to the other side during an election; once elected we discover that the policies they hushed up actually favoured the opposition side of the spectrum.

      In other words ‘parties of the left’ created machinery to enable an increase in corporate profit while reducing the tools (eg tenancy tribunals, trade unions) while the alleged ‘parties of the right’ cranked up environmental policy or slowed de-regulation down).
      The 1st example is more common than the 2nd but both scenarios are SOP for vote seducing pols in a tight spot.

      Of course most people won’t push policy, if they felt the urge to do that -they wouldn’t have the urge to return Ardern – at this stage of her career much of Ardern’s base is motivated by an emotional response which is usually a function of trust.

      Much of this vote comes down to voters trusting the PM. People who trust a pol tend to regard asking that pol hard questions is somehow rude.

      People who want a result that creates direction plus policies to enable that direction, have to be asking those questions of Labour Cabinet members.
      Not at beside the stage after a local election meeting, but publicly in forums covered by media, where answers are recorded

  2. These numbers look more real than the last poll.
    I still doubt Labour will crack 50 percent on the day but surely they can’t lose this election.
    The most interesting news is Greens circling the drain, Winston first no chance, but ACT hitting 5 percent.
    Those that thought Collins would pull ACT voters back were always wrong- many of these ACT voters are firearms owners treated appallingly by the current government, who Judith Collins threw under a bus at the committee stage of the new laws.
    Some will never vote National (or Labour) again.
    With a virtual certainty Labour win, I’d settle for the woke Greens gone and ACT as a strong voice in opposition.

    • …’ I’d settle for the woke Greens gone and ACT as a strong voice in opposition’…

      I never will. The Roger Douglas party can shove their neo liberal ideologies down the toilet. There’s unfinished business in seeing them politically marginalized and destroyed. Thirty six years of unfinished business, in fact.

      • The Roger Douglas party that did the damage in NZ is Labour, FYI, they brought in neoliberalism in this country. They follow the same economic philosophy today, these are indisputable facts.

        • +100 Keepcalmcarryon…seems like there needs to be some political education here

          ….Roger Douglas was a key figure in the Labour Government…and he did enormous damage to NZs working class , especially Maori employment and wellbeing

          ( the Alliance led by Jim Anderton was a break away from Roger Douglas Labour ….and Winston Peters led the breakaway from National over the same issues of selling off State Assets and neoliberalism)

        • Undoubtedly Keepcalm, however he formed his own party to drive his neoliberal dagger deeper into our hearts and their leader Seymour is like Douglas’s puppet on a string.

    • “I’d settle for the woke Greens gone and ACT as a strong voice in opposition.”


      I’ll calmly await an explanation.

    • If labour fails to reach 50%, and NZF and the Greens go down the gurgler , Act will be there with or without 5% so there will be a National led government. Even if labour polls 49%.
      But my pick is the election will come in between the last two poles. 55% to 57%.
      I can’t see any particular attraction of the Greens at the moment. I would say they are on the edge.
      D J S

  3. re “ACT – The fucking woke gave him the momentum last year with their insane war on free speech – you reap what you sow Wokies.”

    ….and the Woke Greens by attacking white male NZers as responsible for the AUSTRALIAN mass murder at the Christchurch mosque …and the Coalition Government for listening to them , blaming New Zealanders and orchestrating a purge on law abiding NZ gun owners…drove up the publicity for ACT…so yeah “fucking woke”

    • I dunno, .. speakers like Loren Southern only encouraged tensions, I never really felt we needed that sort of divisive carry on around here. It might be small minded shire politics because we are a small nation, – but letting those freaks speak would be akin to letting a bunch of virulent nazi supporters hold a rally in the town hall. They can take their twisted Canadian and American racist shite and clear off.

      Not welcome.

      • @ WILD KATIPO …”Not welcome” by you, you mean?!

        (It is a characteristic of Fascism to stifle free speech … this has no place in an open Democracy)

        …and sorry I thought Loren Southern and Molyneux quite articulate and intelligent and polite ( didnt necessarily agree with everything they said)

        ….and they were not advocating violence!

        …why are you not complaining about BLM and ANTIFA?….where a woman was shot for saying “All lives matter”

        ( Do you support BLM and ANTIFA?)

        It is the mark of a robust Democracy and healthy civil society that people can speak freely and debate.

        ( would you close down dialectic and dialogue ?….inwhich case there is a name for this)

        I know a Gen Z who used to vote Green who is now probably going to vote ACT over the issue of Free Speech ( ponder on that)

    • The 2002 election was July 27th and was an early poll. And yeah i think the numbers will tighten they always do after the campaign.
      ACT would be on 6% maybe more if the merger with the New Conservatives had gone ahead.
      Winston should be gone and the Greens may just cling on.

  4. Hooray, Jacinda, never mind denying benefit increases to those on Temporary Additional Support and Special Benefit (who need it most), you are a ‘Saint’, a cheerleader for the believers in miracles to solve our problems.

    • I think the media told the truth for a change, ended up with Anaphylactic Shock and are now licking their wounds. Dont worry, there’s still a few good right wing bullshit and jellybeans storytellers in the media to pique your interest if that’s what your into.

    • Comes a time when their journalistic credibility is on the line and they have to get real whether they like it or not…..but don’t expect it to last.

    • The bias mainstream media would look an absolute joke trying to promote their joke National party, although they are trying extremely hard rolling out pro Collins stories and even rolling out the very outdated Bill English for promotional right wing garbage.

      So there Marc it’s still there.

  5. Seymour may drive ACT to ten percent soon, given many former NZ First voters are disillusioned with Winston, and given the Nats have too much to sort out in their dirty cupboards, before resembling anything that may look like a government in waiting. Indeed, ACT may get more seats then the Greens if the trend continues up until 19 September.

    • Lets hope, – in that way we can rip them to pieces on every ridiculous Roger Douglas thing they ever say. People want free speech?- you got it. Here’s the chance.

      • Please get your story straight
        5 minutes ago (8:39)you were decrying freedom of speech
        Now you are supporting it

        Yep, definately I need that beverage you are consuming
        But maybe not?? maybe it has addled your brain???

  6. I don’t believe that the Act vote is going any higher. Comparing the last two polls 7% of voters transferred from Labour to National, which suggests to me that Judith Collis has staunched the blood letting. If she does nothing unforgivably bad from now to the election it is likely that a few more% will defect back to National. If the public realise that Act is in pawn to the gun lobby, Act will start falling again.

  7. Quite nice that Goldsmith might be kneecapped by a mob going to bed every night snuggling up to their guns and dreaming of Seymour twerking.

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