With Nikki Kaye stepping down, Auckland Central is in play.
Normally I’m a numbers guy, and the numbers here don’t in any way suggest a Chloe play in Auckland Central.
Nikki won 2017 with 13,198, Helen White (Labour) won 11 617 and Denise Roche (Green) took 2838 votes.
On those numbers, any suggestion Chloe should run hard seem absurd, but dig deeper and i would argue there is another story here.
Firstly, Denise wasn’t a candidate, she was a ‘wonderful person’, you know, in the way Marian Hobbes was a ‘wonderful person’.
‘Nough said.
In short, the Greens haven’t had a bloody candidate in Auckland Central since Nandor in 2005, so replace Denise with someone like Chloe and all bets are off.
If a virtual nobody like Helen White can gain 11 000 votes, someone with an actual personality should be able to as well. I say that in the kindest way because I’m sure Helen is lovely, but she’s not in the league of Chloe, and that’s what ultimately makes this a bigger issue to consider than the straight numbers.
It’s Chloe herself as a candidate.
There are very few politicians on the Left who are recognisably popular, Chloe and Jacinda are really the only ones. Chloe is a unique candidate whose talent, ability and bewilderingly popularity on social media cements her as a future leader of the Greens, and probably the only possible saviour of it if it slumps to lower than their 2017 result.
The Auckland Central electorate like to think of themselves as special. Sustainability matters to them and so does gender equity. There’s a lot of bikes, a lot of apartments and lot of young folk living their best lives. Chloe’s optimism, her emotional intelligence and ability to articulate complex policy ideas into understandable bite sized chunks are combos that point to a political legacy in the making.
The one way you win Auckland Central is the way Nikki Kaye took it from Judith Tizard, you door knock and door knock and door knock. Chloe has been doing that.
For the Greens this matters. While Roy Morgan gave them a surreal 9%, everyone else is far closer to the 5% threshold. Chloe winning Auckland Central might be the only way they get back if things get close on that 5%.
Chloe is an exceptional politician and a future leader of the Party. If there is anyone who can pull off a shock result here, it’s Chloe.
Auckland Central joins Northland, Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauauru and the new electorate of Takanini as 5 bell weather electorates who’ll be crucial to keep your eyes on for election night as each has an ability to change the shape of the Government.
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Chloe is an exceptional politician and a future leader of the Party. If there is anyone who can pull off a shock result here, it’s Chloe.
Dynamic, charismatic, a very bright star and a future leader.
Go Chloe!!!!!!!
Yes , just look at that natural radiant smile, this the future of NZ . These are the people we want, those who actually give a damn about the future.Who are socially connected, who are in it because they believe in it, and not just for personal economic gain.
It will come down to who the Asian (mainly Chinese) voters go for. They make up a large chunk of the population of the electorate. If they support Labour/Greens it will well and truly confirm the CCP’s move from national to Labour.
Oh stop it. Just stop it.
If Swarbrick (and the Green Party) put their time, any time, into environmental issues that I thought the Green Party were about, like climate change as a really topical example, then yes. AND if voters actually felt comfortable about voting Greens, which in Auckland Central they clearly do not, then absolutely yes. But they don’t exactly like them, that much is obvious. I mean they voted in National repeatedly and a nobody from Labour a close second, the Greens a distant galaxy away, both candidate and party vote.
And to make things worse for the Green Party in 2020 is the electorate have had the last 3 years of the super woke/super repulsive Green Party, and localised, the woke as we know sure as shit destroyed the Hero Parade in what must be the most tolerant electorate for gay rights.
Chloe Swarbrick’s time in central politics has made her known for pretty much one thing, promoting drug legalisation.
So what has possibly made her more attractive to voters aside from drug users but minus serious green issue voters? And I am taking an educated guess National voters aren’t amongst the former.
This is a typical left response that the overwhelming majority of voters (in Auckland Central) are always wrong and need to get a life. To me voting Swarbrick is a wasted vote that WILL guarantee Nationals return there and probably stuff up Labours vote in the process.
Agree with XRAY. Bomber is green blind. As well as getting a candidate vote close to Nikki Kaye, Helen White and Labour got the party vote in the last election. You’re indulging in a bit of offensive politics of your own Bomber by calling her a no-body. A good journalist would find out her background and not indulge in petty slurs. You’d discover someone who is more solidly left than Swarbrick. The Greens have promoted her above Genter on the party list. Yet Genter did the hard work on Green’s key policies like plastic bottles, Maui dolphins etc. Perhaps Swarbrick has the sweeter smile.
There is a really, really funny post on a potential Auckland Central candidate, over at TS. I can’t resist sending this link, post by the Mickster: Nationals Next Auckland Central Candidate
Meanwhile Judy has another Woodlouse in the Beehive outhouse already, clinging to that toilet seat and won’t let go.
The Greens have not yet had a rep voted in, this millennium, unless I am mistaken. The last time that an election was held where a Green Party rep was voted in was 1999 I think?
It is their turn NOW! And Chloe has the best chance.
She also represents the Youth vote. (Guess who will be dealing with the mess that’s left, in 20 years time.)
I would also like to see Anti-Poverty campaigner Ricardo Menendez March win his seat in Maungakiekie a href=”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maungakiekie_(New_Zealand_electorate) And, he too would have that chance if Labour voters understood the value of his representation. (Labour + Green combined vote in 2017 would have beaten Nats rep Denise Lee.)
If the greens needed to be given an electorate seat, the only one viable would be Wellington central. Auckland central is not as hyper progressive as people make out. The math for Chloe isn’t there. The kinds of incomes needed to live there nowadays suggests the electorate is becoming more and more centerist but socially liberal. If labour drops their center left candidate there’s no evidence the lab voters would all vote green and much more to tell us they’d be more inclined to cast their vote to a Nikki Kaye like Nat especially if the Nat candidate is low on the list and if polling suggested that that Helen White and Chloe were to make it in on the lists they would cast their vote for the moderate Nat to have three MPs. If Chloe campaigns strongly for the seat it’ll be a Nelson Nick Smith or Pete Dunne situation. I think Wellington Central could be discussed as a potential deal, hell the finance minister is going to be incredibly busy with the recovery it could be sold that he’d be too fully focused recovery. Anyway a left split only helps the nats
I expect a bit more than social media campaign skills and awkward smart talk, so Chloe would not be my choice, while the present alternatives are lacking also. Where are the ones with some real practical knowledge, skills, qualifications and experience in applied sustainability and alternative energy system building?
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