101 days until 2020 NZ Election – predictions 

43
3139

So we are now 101 days until the 2020 NZ Election due on September 19th.

The Labour led Government of Jacinda Ardern have made tiny baby steps towards being transformative but beyond tinkering have not been able to pursue a more progressive policy platform, however in crisis, Jacinda Ardern has shone and stepped up with a level of leadership that now sees her Party enjoying an outright majority.

What happens next?

LABOUR – outright majority 

I don’t wish to be mean.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

But.

I think many NZers who scream that Jacinda is turning NZ into a socialist state, don’t understand socialism.

I mean I WISH she was, but trust me, she’s not.

The most likely outcome will be a Labour majority government, the danger for Labour is that to date they have managed to shrug off doing anything genuinely meaningful for housing, poverty, inequality, justice and the climate because they can point to bad Uncle Winston and say, ‘bad uncle Winston won’t let us’. With a majority Government however Jacinda and Grant can’t hide their own over caution and will need to actually spend their political capital rather than constantly save it.

NATIONAL – 2002 collapse and burn

The absurdity of replacing Simon Bridges as leader and replacing him with a middle manager with too much ego and not enough talent via a coup launched by backbench MPs who were spooked by polls suggesting they will become unemployed reeks of desperation and it is showing. Why on earth National pundits think entering a severe economic depression will suddenly make voters elect someone they don’t know is never fully explained. I think National supporters will look back on Simon’s 29% as halcyon days, Muller’s train wreck performances in every media interview he does won’t get better and come the debates, Jacinda will wipe the floor with him. At some stage National voters will just opt out of voting rather than support this muppet.

 

NZ FIRST – politically irrelevant 

The second Muller opened the door to NZ First, Tracey Martin, Winston and Shane Jones have all been publicly flirting with National in a desperate attempt to become politically relevant again to National voters. NZF need this as they are sub 5% ever since Simon Bridges ruled them out. Bubbling along in the background is NZF’s funding scandals and I imagine that will be the main focus on Winston during the election. The naked truth for Winston however is that Jacinda has out shone him during the pandemic and is in a position to achieve a majority Government. If this happens, it doesn’t matter if NZ First gets back over 5% because Labour won’t need them. NZ First could become politically irrelevant. Isn’t that a great feeling?

 

GREENS – blissfully cruising to sub 5% oblivion

The Greens have gone backwards in the last 3 elections and they always over poll. Their current 4% will easily be lower than that on election day and with Jacinda so prominent internationally my guess is the international vote that has always supported the Greens will go to Labour. The Greens middle class woke identity politics virtue signalling is deeply alienating to the vast majority of voters and instead of attracting votes, they’ve simply managed to push anyone not in their twitter clique away. The tiny gains they’ve managed in power are a joke and their major legislative win, being carbon neutral in 30 years, is not a solution to the climate crisis. As someone who has voted Green my entire adult life, watching their decline is heart breaking. If the Greens do manage to limp over 5%, they will likely come in under their appalling 2017 result and if that happens the current leadership team must resign on election night to give a new leadership team a chance.

 

ACT – Right Wing Schism could triple Party vote

ACT have benefited from the free speech culture war that the Left should never have gifted Seymour and the sudden watering down of National’s harder edge has created a schism on the Right that ACT are benefiting from. Real chance they could triple their 2017 Party vote.

 

MĀORI PARTY – Election night surprise 

The Māori Party have a real chance in Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Makaurau and with a small nudge up in their Party vote could end up with 2 electorate MPs plus a list MP. With Labour so high in the Polls, the Māori Party could argue Māori electorate voters will already gain representation with a Labour MP, PLUS a Māori Party MP.  The Māori Party could become an election night surprise.

 

TOP – running out of options  

They can’t hope to get 5% now and could only win representation if National stood aside in an electorate, but such a clear tactical move would rob TOP of any soft liberal urban vote. Looks like a failed experiment in policy at the moment.

 

ADVANCE NZ – Misreading Botany?

Jami-Lee Ross’s interesting point of difference with his new political party is that he is attacking China. It could be a misread of the electorate with the largest asian population in NZ, or he and his rumoured strategist Simon Lusk have seen something in Botany’s asian diaspora that is anti-Chinese Government. National’s candidate and fundamentalist Christian, Christopher Luxon, should win this seat easily, but JLRs strategy suggests he is seeing something we are not and that could create a curveball on election night.

 

New Conservative NZ – Vision Aotearoa – ONE – God has forsaken us

Is there a more divine outcome? The entire religious right from the cross burning New Conservatives to the brimstone and fire Vision Aotearoa to the evangelical ONE are now all competing against each other for votes. They will all fail to get 1% each. Finally proof there is a God!

 

There are curveballs and dark horses, but right now the electorate are prepared to give Jacinda a majority Government and National are doomed to rip themselves to pieces in opposition for another 3 years. 101 days is a long time in politics, but 4 consecutive polls in a row give Labour 50%+ because the psychology of the electorate has been fundamentally changed by the lockdown.

People feel genuinely grateful to Jacinda and that gratitude will show up at the ballot box, the economic crisis will only exacerbate that sense of gratitude, not erode it, especially with $20b to spend between now and the election.

After terrorism, volcanism and a pandemic, the majority of voters not only feel Jacinda has earned their vote, they are prepared to entrust her with a majority Government to be transformative.

Is Labour up to that challenge?

Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice going into this pandemic and 2020 election – please donate here.

If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media.

43 COMMENTS

    • When the ‘better dead than red’ National supporters in Epsom, realise they’re not going to be even close to forming a Government, might the ‘hardened voters’ actually vote National and ignore the corrupt MMP ‘work around’ for the ACT party and Seymour vote’?
      I just don’t believe in my ignorance (?) that Seymour is ‘a shoe in’ which everyone seems to assume.
      I get that the ‘soft National vote’ might not vote at all and if a few did they’d probably want to say/think they voted for the winning side’; I guess an all too familiar trait amongst many parties ‘soft vote’?

      • Agreed Kevin. If they don’t agree on a deal, Seymour would be toast, however given National needs at least one friend, I’m not quite sure what each will do.

  1. ‘101 days is a long time in politics’

    That’s the most significant thing you have written, Martyn.

    With the US now a basket case and about to get worse due to blatantly stupid policies coming from the top and the from middle (I’m not sure what is worse than a basket case except a basket case on a life support system with a power cut coming), and with Brazil (indeed, most of South America and Central America) and India well on the way to becoming basket cases, and with the UK still floundering very badly, to imagine the current world order will be still be intact in September takes a lot of imagination.

    The loot-and-pollute system that has been operating since the dawn of civilization is now hitting the wall of its own making: there is nothing much left to loot, and pollution taking an ever greater toll on humanity and the natural world.

    Even the ‘printing presses’ of central banks are not working ‘properly’ any more, though the rigged equity markets are still sucking what money there is into preposterous valuations for shares and other financial ‘assets’.

    In the real world there are now massive discrepancies, contradictions and ambivalences that are getting worse by the month, if not by the hour. Aspirational politics is well past its use-by date (not that it had any basis anyway).

    The global financial meltdown is well underway, just as the global (overheating) meltdown is well under way. It’s sure going to be an ‘interesting’ Northern Hemisphere summer, both with respect to hurricanes and ice melt and the financial ‘black hole’ that the central banks have got most nations into.

    ‘Is Shell’s Dividend Cut Permanent?’

    …’Royal Dutch Shell could cease investing in new oil properties, sell off what it owns and put the money into non-fossil energy or just return the cash to its investors. That would get it into a net zero position sooner. Or it could wind down its oil businesses gradually and liquidate the company by paying out dividends rather than retain the money. But with so much money going into the development of oil properties, it is difficult for outsiders to evaluate the company’s new direction, which seems to be: “We want to go green, but not quite yet.”

    This ambivalence about capital investment direction puts investors in an uncomfortable position. Those looking for steady, high yields have been served notice. They can no longer depend on this sector for above average dividend yields. More risk tolerant growth investors may also become reticent about a business gradually losing market share in an energy market that is itself slow growing.’

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Shells-Dividend-Cut-Permanent.html

    The good news is that angry mobs are defacing (or actually pulling down) statues erected to glorify the exploits of slave traders, colonial exploiters, war criminals and the like (Colston, Rhodes, Lee etc.), statues that have remained largely untouched for many decades or even centuries, until the masses have finally begun to lose their fear of authority [again].

  2. You underestimate the middle class anger when right on election time the vast majority of middle management redundancies (i.e. office workers) will be discovering that they are borderline unemployable as there are no jobs – this roughly takes 1-2 months to filter through the system. People aren’t going to be grateful going from over $1,250 per week to $480-odd per week and then reducing down to $230-odd per week into the medium term. If the government does not have a realistic plan to get these people back into meaningful employment then they will be looking for someone to blame.

    This is the same demographic that lives well outside its means (i.e. late model European car, $1m mortgage, overseas holidays etc) therefore asking them to become low paid beneficiaries and give up a lifestyle that they believe is a right is going to be a hard ask and won’t be waved away with a slick marketing campaign and kindness. The last 3 governments have won this segment by bribes – in the current economic climate it is difficult to see how you are going to bribe this lot again.

    The health related part of the crisis is over – the economic part is just beginning. The trickle of unemployment stories in the media will become a stream and then likely around the election a flooded river. The government doesn’t have a long-term strategy yet for the economy and it looks from the outside (maybe i’m wrong) that the plan is to kick the can down the road and hope things turn around quickly. The government has snookered itself in this sense by continuing strict immigration measures as the only identifiable way to get a ‘V’ shaped turnaround will be turning the immigration/tourism tap on again – this runs the risk of re-triggering Covid-19 cases into the country. Given the ‘marketing’ campaign over the past 2 months this is not an option.

    The opposition’s response has been more or less to simply mirror the government’s position to date therefore there is very little risk that poll numbers will change significantly come election time. History suggests that it is still odds on that there will be some form of coalition (albeit with less reliance). This could change if National takes a more aggressive campaign and there will be lots of pressure points in the coming 2.5 months such as law and order, race relations, immigration and health to name a few. This also brings into play Lees-Galloway, Twyford, Clarke etc who clearly aren’t up to the job. Again given the current National leadership I have doubts they have the ability nor the gumption to be bold and take on a high risk campaign.

    In a weird sense this might just be a very good election to lose as those without a plan going into a major economic event such as a depressions get found out rather quickly.

    • I disagree passionately that the looming economic meltdown will spook voters into Muller’s arms, I think such a belief is fanciful! Sure those $1250 a week down to $480 a week volk won’t be happy, but they’ll be a far lot more fucking grateful that they’ll have something from a politician they trust – where as no one knows who the fuck Muller is!

      I agree the economic meltdown will be harsh, but that will make this voters already in awe of her even greater fans, especially when everyone senses the cut backs are everywhere.

      What the right miss is that this was a unique universal experience and it has created solidarity, which is something that confuses the right because they are bound by mutual aspiration, not mutual experience.

      Turning on the immigration tap would be madness, as would allowing tourists to romp around – and the vast majority of NZers watching the nightmare erupt outside our borders will tolerate a lot to ensure that moat is well defended.

      The right are lacking the imagination software to understand what just happened culturally, that’s why you’ll still be scrambling to explain how Jacinda wins in September.

      • The right have this misbelief they are better economic managers but not one has ever provided evidence.

        • Hey Bert read this n brilliant speech by Ron Mark last week as he demolishes “fancy-boy Chris Bishop on transport funding and he said national always used “cross -funding”- during the second reading of the LAND TRANSPORT (RAIL) LEGISLATION BILL”
          https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/combined/HansD_20200604_20200604

          here is the Hansard report for 4th June 2020 on second reading of LAND TRANSPORT (RAIL) LEGISLATION BILL – Second Reading

          Here blow is how Ron Marks claims National funded their campaign during their financial planning ans where the funding actually came from. – ‘cross funding’ from the ‘consolidated fund’

          READ HERE – RATHER ENLIGHTENING –

          Hon RON MARK (Minister of Defence): Thank you, Mr Speaker. I do rise on behalf of New Zealand First to say this is a great day. This is a great day. This is a great day, to finally see a piece of legislation—we’re having lots of great days over this side of the House. In fact, I thoroughly enjoyed my time in select committee this morning, talking about multiple great days for the Defence Force just rolling one after the other. But this is a great day, and it’s going to be a great day tomorrow as well. If anyone’s in Whenuapai, just come along.
          I’ve got to say, the reason it’s a great day is because, finally, we’re seeing a Government that’s taking a pragmatic approach to communications and networking throughout the land—basic communications infrastructure. That is what rail is. It’s part of that wider communications network, whether we’re talking road-rail or whether we’re talking the information highway—which I do find interesting.
          I’m listening to some of the arguments right now—I’m listening to some of the arguments right now, and I’m looking at my ol’ mate across the road the former president of Local Government New Zealand. We used to be, actually, on the same team, local government, trying to knock sense into the last National Government because they would not listen to provincial New Zealand and the concerns about the communications network. We would talk about the lack of funding.
          There’s Mr—what’s his name; King, is it, from Northland. Labour put him in that seat. That man should get down on his knee and thank Labour every day of every week of every month, because, without Labour pulling the votes off Winston Peters, that man wouldn’t be there. But I digress a tad. That man wouldn’t be there. He’s what we call, in New Zealand First, the beneficiary MP. He doesn’t do any work. He just hoovers up “gimmies” and freebies curtesy of Labour.
          ASSISTANT SPEAKER (Adrian Rurawhe): Order! Back to the bill.
          Hon RON MARK: Thank you, Mr Speaker. I couldn’t resist a clip at him, because he’s so used to it.
          ASSISTANT SPEAKER (Adrian Rurawhe): Or even start talking about the bill.
          Hon RON MARK: Thank you.
          I do recall the days when we talked about communications. We talked about the difficulty of local government funding roading networks with an ever growing number of trucks on the roads. We would come along to—in those days it was—the Hon Nick Smith, who was the Minister of Local Government, and try to help him understand the pressure that local government was on. Our diminishing number of rural ratepayers could not fund the repairs and maintenance, let alone the growth, of those rural networks of roads.
          One of the solutions we always talked about was getting trucks off the road, getting product on to rail, and getting it through to the port. Now, whether that meant going up to Napier, up through Mr Yule’s part of the woods, to the port at Napier, or getting it down through the Wairarapa into Wellington, into CentrePort, we always said: why don’t you put more money, Mr National Government person, into rail so we can, one, alleviate the pressure on our ratepayers, and, two, alleviate the pressure on the roading network to commuters who were driving over the Remutaka hills stuck behind logging trucks—truck after truck after truck? But the answer was always, well, we’re not putting money into rail, and rail’s a State-owned entity and it’s got to make its own way, and it’s not the Government’s responsibility to be putting money into rail.
          I heard Mr Bishop just a moment ago—the fundamental objection that today’s National Party in Opposition has to this bill is because of cross-subsidy. Get it? I’ve got that. I understand it. But that totally belies what that Government stood for a few years back when they went into coalition with New Zealand First and they flip-flopped—they flip-flopped. We used to have cross-subsidy, where road-user charges, all that transport funding, went into the consolidated fund, and it was used for education—cross-subsidy—under Robbie Muldoon and Jim Bolger. Mr Bishop, the reason your party changed it is because New Zealand First and Peter Brown made you—in coalition negotiations made you.
          So quite happy to accept cross-subsidy on one day and argue against it on another day. In those days, it was essential. In those days, you couldn’t put 100 percent of the money gathered off of roads into roading because that was just appalling. How would we pay for education, they said. How would we pay for health, they said. We can’t put all the money into roading. Now they’re saying, “Oh my gosh. We can’t take the road-user charges and put them into rail.”
          Hon Member: You’re lost in the past.
          Hon RON MARK: “Lost in the past.” Well, for that new member, freshly promoted—congratulations—if one doesn’t learn from history, one is doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past, and that in one flippant little chip across the House, sums up the problem on that bench—sums it right up. Denial, denial, denial.
          Here’s the other point: over the hill and far away, in a beautiful valley called the Wairarapa, people are applauding the fact that we will have more trains running commuters in and out of Wellington to the Wairarapa. The local mayors—
          Chris Bishop: We did that. That was us.
          Hon RON MARK: No. Minister Twyford has made that announcement—about $200 million into double-tracking in the Hutt area.
          Chris Bishop: That was us.
          Hon RON MARK: Mr Bishop, there was never any funding or any appropriation or any commitment when I was the mayor of Carterton from that Government to double-tracking, to improving the lines, to more rolling stock, to $98 million in one hit, about $200 million from this Government into the Wairarapa line. That’s new. In fact, Mr Bishop, weren’t you there in Upper Hutt when we made the announcement? Well, the former National Party man who is now the mayor of South Wairarapa is applauding this decision.
          In fact, it was Adrienne Staples—Her Worship the Mayor Adrienne Staples, from South Wairarapa, former National Party president—who got tired of banging her head on the desk trying to say why doesn’t the Government use money from the Land Transport Fund to support rail. Guess what. Her former Worship the Mayor of South Wairarapa was saying, “Well done, coalition Government. Nice one. Thank you very much.”
          Stuck in the past, Nicola Willis, I understand you are. You are stuck in your past rhetoric, in your past ideology, of all that little “The money has to be in this jam jar and only spent on Weet-Bix, and the money in this little jam jar is for the rent, and nothing can shift between the two of them.” That’s why families get into trouble, because there’s no pragmatism, there’s no balance, and there’s no looking at the wider holistic policy.
          This decision is a brave decision. New Zealand First has been adamant that we must rebuild rail. We need to get trucks off. The comment that 99 percent of freight in Auckland goes on the roads is absolutely correct, Mr Bishop—absolutely correct. I’ve got family in the logistics distribution network. I know how important those trucks are. We’ve got Palmerston North, just across the hills from us, right—a centre, a hub, a logistics hub. We know what’s going in and out of there.
          The question is, given all the money that was poured into the roads of national significance and what the last Government was going to do—Mr Yule’s smiling, I know. Don’t smile; you’ll get in trouble. All the money that we know was going to be put into the one-road network by the last Minister of Transport, who was going to lose? Rural New Zealand. And what was that doing? That was propping up unbridled immigration, more and more cars on the roads, more and more trucks, billions of dollars going into Auckland, Mr Bishop—Auckland—at the expense of the Wairarapa, Hawke’s Bay, and Manawatū.
          The question is: is that sustainable? Can we continue to promote that sort of greenhouse gas emission? Can we continue to have that many trucks on the road? Can we continue to build so many roads? Why wouldn’t we expand our rail network? Why wouldn’t we find alternate ways of funding it? And, of course, it may only be one train on the Wairoa line up until right now, but build it—and, if what you’ve said is true, then kei te pai. But I’m one of those optimists; I’m a pragmatist. New Zealand First believes build it and it will come. Build it. With the population growth in this country exploding, we have tripped over the 5 million mark at lightning speed, and that has got to be a concern. And the future will not be in building more six-lane highways at the huge cost that the last Government poured into those roading networks—

      • Thanks Martyn – nice to have someone on the left give a measured and reasoned reply.

        Oh trust me Muller is about appealing as a 3-day old turd on Surfers Paradise beach following schoolies hence one of the reasons he’ll lose come September. The great fallacy of the centre-right over the past 20 years has been the selection of conscientious middle management professionals into roles of governance far exceeding their ability. Muller is the epitome of this and personally I hope they crash and burn and a whole swathe of new blood and/or a new party rises from the ashes. I won’t be holding my breath however.

        In regards to the impending economic depression without the Clark/Key immigration ponzi scheme that papers over productivity and structural issues within the NZ economy there isn’t a lot to write home about outside Farmer Brown, some logs and a few cases of wine. Here in lies your problem – how do we pay to maintain first world status. The only other scenario I can see working is putting it on the credit card with China and the resulting political and economic consequences. It’s like having a knife and choosing your left testicle over your right.

        It’s not that we on the right are lacking imagination more so seeing a slow moving 747 airplane crash and there being no plan (from any party) to address the issues about to befall our country.

        I understand where you are coming from unfortunately I don’t share your humanist view of first world people (especially the middle) in 2020. We have become a shallow, callous and self centered bunch of individuals who look at every failure as a cause to blame someone or something else. As you rightly point out at the very time we need to step up as a nation and take ownership of our issues the cynic in me believes the opposite will occur and we will look to blame our woes on anyone but ourselves. With respect to our current situation there is only one game on town (Labour) and if you take the bouquets, you have to take the bricks. In the words of Ramsay Bolton “If you think this has a happy ending, you haven’t been paying attention”

  3. “the psychology of the electorate has been fundamentally changed by the lockdown”

    Indeed, there is a sense that people had a chance to reflect, things are changing, where that’s going to lead is the question. Is there a long-term shift or will people just slide back to the old normal?

    In actuality there is only one real issue at the upcoming election – climate change. But you can bet that we won’t be hearing much about it at all.

  4. National use their alleged “rock star economy” as evidence of their magnificent financial management. Those with a brain bigger than a sultana saw the reality. Arrogant and divisive political parties have had their time and are now mercifully, in NZ’s rear view mirror.

    Labour will govern alone and they deserve the opportunity to do so.

    National are dead in the water and rightly so. Numerous National Party MP’s will be looking for some kind of employment with their Chinese Overlords. NZ has dodged some very big bullets. National will piss off and attempt to re-brand it’s self but with Christopher Luxon as their new leader, it will be John Key part II…only worse if that’s possible.

    NZF will be gone and deservedly so. They are well past their use by date. The cynical timing and nature of recent Peters self serving look at me statements have again highlighted what NZ no longer wants or needs. Critics were right to describe his party as Winston First. Despite this, his name will appear in the new years honours list and we will have a second Sir Winston. Only this one does not deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as the previous.

    Greens. Who knows? Who gives a flying fuck anyway? NZ needs a party to represent green issues but they have been the quintessential chocolate fireguard.

    Act. Not a fan of the arrogant little man but seems clear he will return to seek more photo opportunities from the cheap seats.

  5. I agree that the Greens need to up their game, but I expect their vote will be slightly above 2017. They have a solid base and appeal to NZ youth. Less Maramar and more Chloe should do the trick. Environmental causes haven’t gone away, they’ve just been overshadowed by current events. 2-3 months of level 1 will refocus the electorate to vote for what matters to them. Chloe is doing great work on student accommodation problems and wipes the floor with Bennett (who can’t be bothered to front anymore) when discussing cannabis reforms. I expect there will still be a hunger for policies based on humanity rather than profit when the time to vote comes.

    • 6’4

      I’m also hoping for a result above that of 2017. 7%+ would be nice, as that might bring Kerekere into parliament.

      I don’t have much to do with the youth wing of the GP, but now that University is starting up again, I imagine that they will be too. A lot of passionate intensity there, if not always understanding for diversity of diversities. Also climate striking schoolkids may not be able to vote themselves, but their actions may mean the issues will be heightened in the minds of those who do.

      The cannabis referendum might draw in some people who might usually vote ALCP too. I seem to remember that the Jday (which I didn’t attend, so second hand news here) in Dunedin this year was more of a celebration of the referendum and medical availability (since April), than a protest. Are the ALCP even campaigning for votes this election?

  6. I disagree with the prediction that the GP is facing electoral oblivion. One of Bradbury’s primary arguments for a Labour Party landslide, is the public exposure of Ardern during the 1pm Pandemic briefing, which will be but a memory when it comes to voting day. In fact, if I was to advise the LP volunteers; they should plan to be offering to drive voters to early voting booths as soon as they open, because gratitude is fragile.

    However, voters outside of the country haven’t been exposed to the Ardern adoration to anything like the same degree. As far as they are aware – the GP was part of the government alongside the LP&NZF that eliminated SARS-COV-2. What is important to the wider world at this time is the Floyd protests/ police riots. This is how the GP are seen in this context:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/thousands-in-new-zealand-protest-against-george-floyd-killing

    Now, the elimination of the Armed Response Teams, may have been as much to do with the LP Maori caucus and looming Waitangi tribunal claims of lack of consultation. But GP MPs were; visible, and vocal, at protests against police brutality in the lead up to that decision to drop ARTs even before the trial’s assessment was completed. That’s the kind of thing that catches the attention of expatriate voters. Maybe even some domestic voters who are normally politically disengaged.

    Finally, for numberphiles such as myself, Bradbury is being highly selective in his choice of comparison years. The 2011 & 2014 elections were anomalies in being above 10% results for the GP largely because those were the only two elections this millennium that the LP got under 30% of the party vote. The average (mean) result for the GP since they split from the Alliance is; 7.5%, and for the LP in the same period; 34.9% (combined; 42.4%).

    At present the LP is polling high, so the GP is polling low. The LP is unlikely to be polling so high at election day. Nat voters (mostly family) I have talked to seem more likely to not vote than vote Labour or ACT.

    • with all due respect, your argument regarding the overseas vote, which has traditionally gone to the greens in huge numbers, will not eventuate this election. International media has been drenched in Jacinda Mania, you are horrifically under estimating the power of Jacinda’s brand internationally – I am bettingthat the vast majority of that vote will go to Labour this election.

      As for the numbers, come on. The Greens retained high percentage numbers because their mix of radical and environmental and economic amalgamation was broad church enough to draw a large swath of the voting public, but the identity politics stuff is pure temple and as such is alienating more than it’s recruiting.

      The numbers you hold up don’t stack, the trend is that the Greens have gone backwards in 3 polls and they traditionally over poll.

      Last election TDB called on progressive voters to support the Greens to keep them over 5% when they fell below that, this election we will put out our strategy when early voting starts.

      • Martyn

        I see I didn’t mention in my (way too long already) comment – but my point was actually that the overseas vote (which as you say; “has traditionally gone to the greens in huge numbers”) is not captured in the polling. Neither of us can say for sure what they’ll do in three months time – but I do know that the GP is actively campaigning at them.

        The Identity Politics assertion must be more of an North Island thing. Down in Otago, we are more focused on gaining representation in local body elections to push for sustainable infrastructure. Logie getting; increased funding for domestic violence through the budget, and Davidson’s; appearance at the Auckland Floyd march just before the NZP dropped their experimental ART project; are the two things that have got any real cut-through to me down here, what with the other events of the year. Overlong sentence, overlong comment!

        Anyway, my main gripe with your response to my earlier comment is that you say; “the numbers you hold up don’t stack”. The calculations are accurate (to 1dp); you may disagree with the sample range (as I do yours), but the maths do stack up. I will wait until September until I pay much attention to the polling – at the moment it’s a distraction from work (unpaid & tedious as it may be) that needs to be done.

        • Mateee, calculating election night results is not guess work at all. Iv condensed my process down as far as I could get it which is “volatility multiplied by time. If you’ve been following me for the last 6 or so years then you’ll know that singly means that you need to tell better stories. And literally no one one the lest is writing more constantly and more accurately than Bomber and Chris Trotter. I know this is a simple explanation and could go deep into it if provided with the correct motivation.

      • Disagree, Martyn early voting/international voting has always favoured Greens. a lot of young people support the ‘wokeism’ you rail against and with the whole racism/poverty/health stuff a Green Party putting best foot forward with some substantial progressive policies likely to do well. Left does well to put Greens there kicking at Labour from left. Same with NZF, they’ll be back again. Just like your prediction re national supporters/former ACT voters going/returning to ACT when they see Nats need friends/doesn’t have chance of winning so too will some Nats/Nat voters go to NZF as best chance to ameliorate/dilute and kick at Labour Gov from right of it. Winston/NZF still have a few friends within Nats caucus/organisation, more so within wider party and even more so in wider nat voter. NZF not that long ago was threatening to become second party …not impossible going forward as neo-liberalism/globalism more rejected by the populace. NZF if it puts forward a strong policy platform is well-positioned to represent a new radical centrism.

  7. Re botany, what are the chances, with labour polling so high, that it drags their candidate vote up high enough to win with JLR and luxon splitting the right vote?

    ACT still need Seymour to win unless they get over 5% and goldsmith has now created quite a profile for himself rather than mr invisible. He could come through ahead of Seymour in the end.

    I think muller will make bill’s 2002 result look good.

  8. One can only hope that Labour, anticipating an outright majority, is seriously evaluating their list MPs, so they are not scraping the bottom of the barrel, post election. One can only hope that in anticipation, an ambitious and truly transformational range of policies is developed as we speak. One can only hope that Labour will be prepared to spend their political capital and not waste it. One can only hope that Labour understands that if an outright majority eventuates, it presents a once in a lifetime opportunity. I am not holding my breath…..

  9. In retrospect on the achievements of this government…

    I hate to say but a tiny bit of Nationals strategy is right and the “empty cabinet” seats are in a few cases correct. Twyford simply must go. An utter failure, reverse Midas touch, motor mouth with nothing behind the bullshit sales talk. Transport is way too important especially in respect of climate change for an incompetent minister (being real polite here).

    Megan Wood has hardly distinguished herself in housing either. The same borer exists in the housing market that stuffed it for the rest of this nation, namely investors. Labour have even gone backwards on John Key in solutions of LVR’s. I’m not really even sure if building ghettos is the way forward either. But she did inherit one hell of a mess.

    Otherwise and with the exception of Robertson and the PM, a largely forgettable group with a few exceptions that haven’t done too much harm.

      • Definitely.

        Appalling has beens like Gerry Brownlee, a chump at his peak, Collins, engrained unpleasantness and an Uber questionable past for dedication to self enrichment, Bennett equally repulsive, in fact I cannot think of a single one who rates either competent or likeable.

  10. You underestimate New Conservative. How many times do political tragics need to be surprised?
    Christian Coalition got 4% when they polled at 1%, the old Conservatives got 3% after polling at 1 or 2%.
    The reality is that margins of error increase at very large and very small numbers, and that solidly conservative parties do reach demographics that are hard to poll.

    I’m a former NZF supporter turned NC and can tell you that in my province, the organisation of NC is superior in every way to what NZF was at the last election. They are doing the basics, pamphleting, canvassing, well attended public meetings, excellent social media engagement numbers etc.

    Now, I’m a pessimist and think we won’t get to 5%, but I will be very surprised if we get less than three. You heard it here first.

    PS The proof of God is in kindness, like how we look after the 77 year old NC supporter who was beaten up while pamphleting by ‘tolerant and kind’ left wingers while the ‘objective’ media refuses to carry the story. Enjoy it as your ‘progress’ turns into woke authoritarianism of the ugliest sort.

    • LOL A ‘New’ Conservative Party coz two previous ones failed LOL …A ‘new’ conservative party filled with old racists/OneNZ/BUF/NF & RWR people? Only way you get over 5% is from rats leaving sinking National ship. Most people won’t bother voting for you even if you align with them politically knowing only chance you have of getting a seat at the table is riding on coat-tails of Nats & eating crumbs dropped from their table. Maybe though they’ll do a deal with you like they did with Seymour.

      • Sure, it’s not like populist and national conservative parties have done well in any other democracies lately, and we all know the past is a perfect predictor of the future.
        Have a nice day.

  11. Agree with the current predictions, but anything can and probably will happen, in the next 101 days so anything might change.

  12. “meh…”
    Allow me and in humblest opinion.
    Thanks to Wikipedia.
    “The 1996 New Zealand general election was held on 12 October 1996 to determine the composition of the 45th New Zealand Parliament. It was notable for being the first election to be held under the new mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system, and produced a parliament considerably more diverse than previous elections. It saw the National Party, led by Jim Bolger, retain its position in government, but only after protracted negotiations with the smaller New Zealand First party to form a coalition. New Zealand First’s position as “kingmaker”, able to place either of the two major parties into government, was a significant election outcome. ”
    jimbo ‘cock-nose mc spud’ bolger would have been delighted at the deep state’s successful machinations to concoct a Trojan horse spectacle like MMP to ensure a mate ( winnie ‘ leather face’ peters ) ran a decent defence against any inquiry as to where the FUCK our AO/NZ went after roger ‘A pigs nightmare equivalent to Hannibal Lector’ douglas ran riot knee deep through our money with his little dick in his soft little pig-killer fingers.
    “The 1999 New Zealand general election was held on 27 November 1999 to determine the composition of the 46th New Zealand Parliament. The governing National Party, led by Prime Minister Jenny Shipley, was defeated, being replaced by a coalition of Helen Clark’s Labour Party and the smaller Alliance. This marked an end to nine years of the Fourth National Government, and the beginning of the Fifth Labour Government which would govern for nine years in turn, until its loss to the National Party in the 2008 general election. ”
    Aw… helen and jenny up a tree plotting and scheming against you and me.
    little helen, and big jen. Besties, as was reported on the cover of the now dead The Listener, offering an insight into “the secrets they never shared…” The mind boggles. There goes any erection I was planning for the next twenty years.
    “The 2008 New Zealand general election was held on 8 November 2008 to determine the composition of the 49th New Zealand Parliament. The liberal-conservative National Party, headed by its parliamentary leader John Key, won the largest share of votes and seats, ending nine years of government by the social-democratic Labour Party, led by Helen Clark. Key announced a week later that he would lead a National minority government with confidence-and-supply support from the ACT, United Future and Māori parties. The Governor-General swore Key in as New Zealand’s 38th Prime Minister on 19 November 2008. This marked an end to nine years of Labour Party government, and the beginning of the Fifth National Government which governed for the next nine years, until its loss to the Labour Party in the 2017 general election. ”
    Back to national….
    And now labour again.
    Meh. And I don’t mean any old meh. I mean a great big meh. Biggest meh ever. Very big. Huge. Gonna be the biggest meh ever in the history of AO/NZ general elections mehness. Ever. Huge. Great. Big.
    There is one thing however, that causes me a conundrum…
    Where is Jacinda Adern ( Also a mate of little ferret face helen’s ) or little Simon bridges in this nice list made by the awesome people at Wikipedia ?
    Check it out?
    See the box below:
    ( Refer: General elections held since 1951[nb 1] )
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_New_Zealand
    The list jumps from derpy lil bill to mammoth mouth muller… and zero mention of Jacinda Adern. Funny that?
    But still. Meh.
    Unless voting becomes mandatory we who can vote might as well stay at home and get stoned and pissed.
    Compulsory ( Mandatory ) voting.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compulsory_voting
    What is compulsory voting?
    ‘IDEA’
    ‘Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance’
    https://www.idea.int/data-tools/data/voter-turnout/compulsory-voting
    Otherwise, this is what’s going to happen in my opinion.
    Muller gets in and slays every last one of us on lower wages, salaries and benefits. You retired people? Start saving and work harder!

    • …” Unless voting becomes mandatory we who can vote might as well stay at home and get stoned and pissed ”…

      —————————-

      Hell no ! I’m gonna get slightly pissed and THEN go out and vote! There’s a reason those poll officials look sideways at me and my slightly ‘casual ‘ attire, my beard and butt length hair and I intend to keep em looking sideways ! You can almost hear em thinking ‘should homeless people be allowed to vote?’…

  13. You all underestimate the willingness of Kiwis to inject themselves with an American DOD funded vaccine. Stop treating us like imbibes.

  14. Martyn
    Left or right, agree or disagree… who cares. Love all the banter here. So sorry about your Greens – truly a pathetic shadow of what was once an admirable hands-dirty party with solid principles. Now a bunch of ill-fitted suits with clean manicured fingernails, and that’s the blokes in that party! I think it’s best if they go under to force them to have serious think about what they stand for.
    Hey!…we agree on one thing: they day Winston gets turfed out, I will drown myself in cold beer. So everyone in Northland, vote National!!!!

  15. 100 days now. 99 of campaigning before the advertising has to come down. I favour the Green Party myself, but our proportionally representative democracy requires that voters be presented with the full range of electoral party options. You’d be surprised how many people I’ve talked to aren’t even aware of the election month, let alone day. Tick tock tick tock…

    If you feel strongly about politics in Aotearoa, then; choose a party and volunteer, or at least; donate, if you are too busy (or socially anxious).

  16. The Green Party have been agonizingly disappointing. I may vote for them due to a lack of options, but I would prefer it if James Shaw and Marama Davidson resign as leaders, which leaves the problem: who is capable that remains? Regardless, the present incarnation of the party seems to have no sense of urgency, little sense of justice and principle, and are all about image – that’s what happens when you get people who’ve never experienced life on the front lines. Disabled, homeless, family abuse victims, childhood sexual assault victims, young homeless people, Maori, low-income beneficiaries and countless other victims and left-outers as well as the environment deserve so much better.

  17. The International Monetary Fund has warned us that a ‘high speed economic train crash’ is coming. Unemployment,debt, and bankruptcies will now soar…The global economy will shrink thirty times more than in the 2008 global financial crisis…Absolute and relative poverty will soar along with isolation and loneliness.
    The NZ Commission on Financial Capability say that we are entering into the deepest crisis of capitalism since the 1930s. One in ten households are already missing mortgage or rent payments.
    The Commissioner for Children warns that a further 200,000 children could soon be also forced into poverty.
    United Nations reports that a billion people will now be thrown into poverty by Covid-19
    What to do answer: Do what the 1935 government did- GO HARD, GO EARLY. Borrow the $53 Billion we need from our own Reserve Bank in order to get us all working again.LETS DO THIS. (Never ever borrow it from the off-shore ultra rich who would bleed us, our kids and grandchildren forever and ever!).

    • …” What to do answer: Do what the 1935 government did- GO HARD, GO EARLY. Borrow the $53 Billion we need from our own Reserve Bank in order to get us all working again.LETS DO THIS. (Never ever borrow it from the off-shore ultra rich who would bleed us, our kids and grandchildren forever and ever!)”…
      ——————————————

      And there it is in a nutshell , folks.

      This is basically what we’ve been waiting for.

      Why is there this weird mental block in so many peoples minds that picking up a history book seems akin to catching tuberculosis? Its all happened before and its all been addressed before and the people survived. And not only that- had their lives vastly improved by the changes brought about by Keynesian economics.

  18. One thing this virus has done,is return in some part, a Back to the Future, 1989 apprentice support scheme,that was around for years due to compulsory unionism,and caring union endevour for its apprentices,trade training and welfare,that was abolished when the then 1990 nats,brought in VOLUNTARY UNIONISM,and at their friend!s the employers behest, the scraping of block courses for apprentices, under the guise of cant afford the monthly day wage of my apprentice going to a block course,and leading to the eventual demise of apprenticeships in this fair land,eh who needs a apprentice when all this semi skilled cheep anti union labour, along with similar imported labour ,can be on hand.And the rest is history leaky homes,shonky construction practices and so on,so the virus has brought us back to the future of apprenticeships,and the only difference,is the bosses still have not to put their hand in their pocket to pay for it,yet guarantee the boss still charge out the apprentice rate as that of a trades person

Comments are closed.