TVNZ Poll: National 46% Labour 41% Greens 5% NZF 3% ACT 2%






ACT: 2%

Dont know: 17%


National + ACT are the Government on these numbers.

TDB Recommends

It takes into account Labour’s big infrastructure package, NZF donations saga and Simon ruling out Winston.

The Greens have now dropped down to 5% – seeing as they over poll there is a very real chance they could slide under the threshold – who is going to accept responsibility in the leadership for this?

It is a 50-50 landline and cell phone poll so should favour the Left.

Labour are in trouble.

So Labour are forcing those in emergency housing to pay 25% rent?
NZF are handing photos of journalists over to right wing hate blogs?
& the Greens woke identity politics is so alienating it’s making them politically irrelevant?

How did it get to this in less than 3 years?


  1. Who cares?
    They are now worse than National.
    Adern charging for emergency accomodation and standing up for Winston First.

    • I have voted left my entire life. Personally for me this government is the worst government that has been elected in a generation. I’m sick of NZFirsts influence and Ardern caving to everyone of Winston’s whims. I’m sick of the Greens woke, elitist bs, whilst achieving nothing significant for their supporters. We are in the clutches of a climate catastrophe, and the Greens would rather talk about reclaiming the C-word and appeasing farmers ffs. You’re heading for political oblivion James, wake the hell up!. And I’m sick of Labours inaction on all of the neoliberal bs we have to deal with. Poverty, homelessness, inequality and hardship has all significantly worsened under Arderns watch and she gets a pass because shes a young women who can speak well?, get the hell out of here, all slogans no substance. I personally feel she’s the female John Key, all talk, all bs but loved by a sycophantic media. No CGT, no real reforms, carbon inaction for thirty years. Incompetence, ineptitude, inexperience, disgraceful. I’m not saying vote National. But voting for the current parties in government is no better, and often under this joke of a regime, so dont kid yourself that we are any better, cos we ain’t!. Where the hell does my vote go if I want to end neoliberalism, have meaningful and fast climate action, want all of the recommendations for welfare to be delivered and put kiwis first by protecting our poorest and most vulnerable brothers and sisters?. There is not a party currently in government that wants any of that, or who will actually deliver it. We are screwed!

      • There is nowhere.
        I’m tempted to vote ACT because at least Seymour believes in free speech but probably I just won’t vote.

        • Jays,

          oh dear…how sad…never mind.

          For the record, anyone who says Labour are as bad as National is doing two things.

          1) Falling into Nationals 24/7 vested interest divisive message that Labour are the worst Government in NZ history and have achieved nothing apart from destroying the NZ economy.

          2) Totally minimized the diabolical damage the National Party have caused to so many good kiwi folk.

          Labour have fallen short with some policy but their “to do” list is virtually endless after 9 years of neglect masquerading as a rock star economy from the latrine rodent party. I score them a fair 6.5 out of 10.

          National on the other hand were at best an appalling 1.5 out of 10.

      • MickeyBoyle,

        I’m in my 50’s. The previous National Government were diabolical. Forced a low wage economy so they and their voting investors could profit off the backs of kiwis that were up against the wall. I’ve never seen such a divisive “them and us” party in my life time. Made Muldoon and Douglas look like a walk in the park. Nurses and teachers knew to protest their pay and woeful conditionals to National would be a resounding fail. National couldn’t possibly have cared less. This totally unsatisfactory situation for teachers and nurses went straight onto the table once Labour came into power. Why? Because teachers and nurses knew Labour who give a shit wouldn’t steamroll them if they had the audacity to strike for better pay and conditions.

        You do realize that when a tidal wave of poverty and housing issues are well under way it will take years to redress the balance? Once again, we have people thrown on the scrap heap now seeking help from a Government they know gives a shit. Those in NZ with a brain bigger than a sultana know Ardern is a caring empathetic person. People routinely accuse her of not doing enough to help those in need where as others who see disadvantaged Kiwis as the “feral enemy” adamantly claim Ardern is putting too much priority on helping the disadvantaged. Can’t win. Bill English only discovered “child poverty” in NZ ten days out from the 2017 election. How can people not be cynical about that? How can anyone say Labour have been worse than National at caring for kiwis in need?

        It staggers me that you for example could be so ignorant about Ardern that you’d actually compare her to John Key. Give yourself an upper cut on that one alone. Ardern does have a positive following with world media but not in NZ. Nat trolls despise anything positive in the media about Ardern. They want the media to despise her just like they do all day every day. Positive news undermines their incessant undermining negativity campaign that started the very moment Ardern became a threat to the entitled Nats. How dare anyone else other than National have the audacity to govern in NZ.

        Andrea Vance, Tova O’Brien, Bill Ralston, Barry Soper etc etc waged a sordid campaign against Ardern on the perspective of Paula Bennett and Simon Bridges and would have had her convicted without trial and shot at dawn for allegedly covering up farcical sexual abuse. Head Nat cheerleader Mike Hosking would have distributed party hats and streamers out to all the other Ardern haters in the NZ media in attendance for the execution. Anyone who thinks Ardern is the darling of all NZ media and is given a free pass clearly resides in a parallel universe. She’s obviously a bloody decent person and at least some in our media understand that despite all the bullshit thrown at her.

        etc etc etc etc.

        Fact is, if you want to earn brownie points with the “in crowd” from the NZ media, just go after Ardern. They will welcome you as part of the team with open arms.

        You’re sick of NZF’s influence? Boo fucking hoo. It’s called MMP and Peters plays the game better than all others.

        You are deliberately misrepresenting the absolutely hopeless position Ardern found herself in with NZF with the CGT. Both her and Cullen were extremely supportive of getting it in place but not if it meant collapsing her Government which is exactly what would have obviously unfolded had they pressed on with it against NZF. Blind Freddy could see how frustrated Labour under MMP were having to bin the CGT. At least try and keep it real. Nothing to do with whims. Everything to do with avoiding a crisis and a snap election.

    • Actually the best summation I’ve heard…

      “If National were so good in their 9 years then why are there so many things that needed fixing”?

    • I agree with the who cares comment – but only because the polls vary so wildly these days that I don’t know why everyone pays so much attention to them

      • Sam – Of course Labour should have raised benefits – you know this, I know this, and the Minister knows this, but I don’t think that they had the backbone to do it.

        One of the most conspicuous successes of the socially damaging Key/English govt was demonising poverty as a lifestyle choice, and in particular, beneficiaries as people who should get jobs – even though many beneficiaries do in fact have jobs, but often remain poor largely because this is a low wage economy.

        Seeing Sepuloni wriggling around about benefit levels, persuaded me that the reason this govt was aiding and abetting people living below poverty level was simply to avoid risking offending middle New Zealand brain-washed by the Key years into believing that poor people are bad people, and the authors of their own misfortune.

        It is, of course morally indefensible, and a wicked way for children, in particular, to have to live.

        It is everyone’s misfortune – and socially reckless – that govt seems to be devoid of courage with no voices shouting out for the children of the poor; whether or not this contributes in some oblique way to the catastrophic experience childhood is for so many of our beautiful young taonga I don’t know, but I do know that it is not necessary to keep anybody down.

        If there is a good reason to keep people down, we would have been told it – but we haven’t. I’d like to think I’m wrong on this – that NZ’ers didn’t swallow the bucket loads of garbage swilled around by the Nats.

      • They won’t cost they are more interested in retaining power even if it means the status quo. Capital gains tax anyone?
        I’m an advocate for Labour being pragmatic about what the electorate will tolerate, but for goodness sake.

  2. Winston Peters spying on journalists, and firstly admitting to it on radio but then denying it to RNZ, will not help.

  3. On the bright side that poor, exploited infant Neve Ardern-Sroubek is going to be taken somewhere Cindy can’t hurt her any more.

    • Agree, Colmar Brunton always favours National which appears to be in decline, besides, Labour’s & jacinda’s numbers are increasing and the economic outlook is good, Optimism has increased and Pessimism has decreased. 17% dont knows is significant. Anyone that follows politics knows NZ first cannot be ruled out despite low polling which is very common for the party which always bounces back on election night.

  4. Labour need to increase benefits on this budget. It’s clear now that they need to, they’ve been skewing down since the moment Jacinda ruled out a cgt. That’s when she went from saint Jacinda to the part time pm.

    Greens need new leadership, both Marama and John key in a green tie need to go, in fact I wouldn’t mind if they retired. Beg Nandor to come back. They need a gender balanced caucus it’s skewing to far one way atm , apart from Chloe all of the 2017 greenies can go.

    Labour need a bold manifesto if they wanna stay on. $10 k tax free, free dental, rail in chch , some kind of return to child payments or rent to own state houses and for the love of chocolate, they need to offer something to the single people who are hard up after.

    Also why aren’t they reminding people that national wants to slash benefits and raise the pension.

    Could be gruesome.

    • Slash benefits and raise pensions, a sure election winner, and add in corruption around political donations and National are a shoe in!

    • Corey H – When the Greens informed the media, including the world media, that white NZ’ers were responsible for the terrible Christchurch Mosque massacres, they lied.

      When the Green women trashed Caucasian, and a couple of others announced to the same media that “white people hate us,” viz Muslims and brown-skinned people, they lied again.

      Perhaps they lost their grip on reality that night, but if they really believe in that hatred, then they shouldn’t be in Parliament at all if their modus operandi is one of setting people against each other; expecting people they have demonised to then vote for them is hopelessly unrealistic.

      Chloe telling a VU audience that experience doesn’t count – or some such – is woefully ignorant and more of the age-ism triggered by OK boomering. If this is how they try to entice the young, by setting more groups against each other, then it is again socially disruptive, another lie, and unfair to wiser older life-lived heads.
      It also suggests that yet another political party is so busy admiring itself that it is out of touch with the reality out in the working world.

      People who know more than me – of whom there are many – hold James Shaw in high regard on climate change issues, but as a climate change party, they may have lost the plot. When a ‘leader’ like Marama advises people to keep saying cunt to assuage her hurt feelings, then that’s not what I voted Green for. They’re meant to be helping to save mother earth, and not be behaving like a bunch of divas.

      Labour should be able to pick up some of the ex-Green vote, but they need to offer a visibly constructive alternative. If your suggestion of “child payments’ is a return to the old child benefit payments, it’s a good one – for many mums it was our only independent disposable income and very important as such.

    • Don’t knows…17% not impressed with the ”politics of kindness” big money to BIG ROADS and big trucks!

      …what about the cuts in services under this government to the elderly and disabled at home?

      …surely our kaumatua elderly are more important than BIG ROADS

      ….what about the homeless?

      • “Our” Kamatua are getting sold out by the elites in the iwi corporate mega-units.

        I wonder what the average age of Kaumatua is these days?

  5. “the Greens woke identity politics is so alienating it’s making them politically irrelevant?”

    Yes that is the hard cold fact Martyn.

    The Greens have lost their ‘mantle of being a real Environmental party’ sadly; – and are now being punished for this as they wrongly used the Preen Party as a “social policy party’ instead.

    Possibly it can be traced back to the ‘small remains of the Alliance party’ – that had joined the Green Party in 1997 after they disbanded the alliance/Green coalition.

    To save themselves;
    The Green Party now need to seriously return to being the top sloted ‘ENVIRONMENTAL PARTY.’

  6. If national get back in we will all need to lock our doors and windows an all in war will ensure . And I would not want to be a policeman. And if they think we need police now we will need armed security every where. Vote national and you are voting for one big shoot up and who has nothing to lose? Even those in their gated communities wont be safe it will be like Armageddon.

  7. ” Labour are in trouble ”

    They have been since the fall of the Labour led government in 2008.

    They are along with National the guardians of the slave market state.

    And many New Zealanders are doing very well as the new property monied class created by Key and his colleagues for nine years

    And despite the starvation wages of many a large number are being very well paid.

    The well off outnumber the poor and those on starvation wages and benefits.

    All the things we write about here and the posts that highlight the real problems that exist are not severe enough too change the direction we are travelling in , in fact it shows how successful the free market has been for enriching many New Zealanders at the expense of so many more.

    When there is only a few points of difference in the number between the Nast Natz and the pretend Labour party that tells me that the majority are perfectly happy supporting the same old approach too the problems created by neoliberalism hoping that the same approach will magic away all those unpleasant social problems but it is that vety system that is the problem.

    It hard too accept that when you are living in an artificially overvalued property ( or properties )and have a line of easy credit and your comfortable.

    Jacinda and the Greens are not up to the job but more depressing than that the Nasty Natz can’t do the job at all but are likely too be back sooner rather than later.

    I am watching Bernie Sanders from afar and he inspires me to believe that all is not lost.

  8. Someone in the media should start to ask the hard questions of National as to how they are going to fix problems with housing, poverty, income gaps, inequality and the like, for example will National halt the minimum wage increases? – what is there policy on homelessness? as the election looms people are going to want specifics

    • And those same media ask why when National were promoting such a strong economy under them, that the nurses, teachers, beneficiaries, health workers, cleaners etc etc etc didn’t benefit? Why was infrastructure deprived. Were National paying their donors back? But where were the journalists then?
      It really looked like a plastic government at the time, sitting around doing nothing meaningful, promising roads without a budget.

    • the media should start to ask the hard questions of National

      Exactly! From time to time over the last several months, the Nats have released sections of their policies and immediately these are paywalled at the Herald. No one else in the media has brought them out for discussion (that I could find). So, if you happen to not be one of the elite Herald readers, how do you know what’s going on?

      If those policies or policy proposals have any real value whatsoever, why the need for subterfuge? Why hide them away? Why not bring them out, proudly and openly? Why the Nats’ reluctance to allow open discussion or public consideration of their own policies? What are they hiding?

      Conversely, any faint move that either Winston or Jacinda make, or even that someone somewhere says they have made or said or faintly murmured… is given the media megaphone and microscope treatment! With a few trick-lenses added for good measure. The end result is a gross imbalance in honest public discussion of our political situation today.

  9. From what I understand from National Party insiders, they have a back pocket full of dirt on the various parts of the current coalition, so buckle up – you’re in for a rough ride until September.

  10. So, if I’m poor and homeless because I’m poor. I get emergency accommodation after a wait of 30 to 90 days if I am luck.

    In the time without accomodation I’ve had to couch surf, beg steal and borrow from all and sundry running up debt as well as keeping appointments with the Gestapo at WINZ to explain why I cant get accomodation for me and family, two to 3 times a week.

    They’ll load you up with debt for the privilege of paying for the storage of your stuff which you’ll have to repay with the other debt they offer you.

    Get a job with no fixed abode! Not a shit chance! Employers see you as too much of a risk to their business and youre stigmatised.

    By the time you get emergency accommodation you are well and truly in debt by the $1000’s!

    But hey! After all of the deductions from your bene for all of the”help” you’ve received, you end up at the foodbank, living in the dark because you cant afford electricity, walk everywhere because you cant afford transport and somehow are meant to find permanent accommodation and a job to pay off all of that debt! FFS!

    With MP’s & Ministers earning $160k as an MP and then $250k on top as a Minister …. they wonder why the 17% of undecided arent buying it, they cant afford it!

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