What everyone seemed to miss in their criticism of the National Party Conference

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John Key arrives at the National Party Conference from the 7th Gate of Hell

Everyone has slammed National for not having any new ideas and have painted the conference as stale and have claimed National don’t know who or what they are.

Simon Wilson: National’s Old Zealand problem

David Cormack: Simon Bridges succeeds and stumbles at National Party conference

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Tim Murphy: A change comes over the National Party

Such claims seem suspiciously complacent.

What most commentators have failed to grasp is that National didn’t offer any real new policy because they don’t have to.

National are polling at stratospheric levels for an Opposition Party and that’s because of two very simple reasons.

The first is that National’s supporters are cemented into place by vested interests.

People with more than 3 properties vote National.

Farmers up to their eyeballs in debt, vote National.

Chinese migrants vote National.

Those who feel alienated by the Left’s wokeness vote National.

Small business votes National.

Big business votes National.

These vested interests did incredibly well out of National over 9 years, they want exactly what they got last time, they don’t want or need new policy to challenge any of the status quo that has benefited them immensely over a decade.

The second reason National don’t have to roll anything new out is because despite our tiny population size, NZ culture is as deeply segregated as a woke Wellington Union staff members twitter feed.

Those vested interests I listed above will never ever ever ever ever ever vote for Jacinda and it didn’t matter that once the economic books had been opened and revealed the true extent of the grotesque underfunding that had occurred under National, those vested interests didn’t give a fuck.

They will vote National come hell or high water.

We are fooling ourselves if we think National are failing, they are not. We are the ones failing to appreciate how much support National actually has and how deep the cultural segregation really is.

The new Government’s only hope is to bring in new voters who haven’t been inspired to vote before and to try and hold their share of supporters.

Once National get Mark Mitchell to stand for the new Conservatives, this illusion that National can’t reach 51% will be well and truly dispelled.

The Left is failing itself by underestimating National and Simon Bridges.

 

 

28 COMMENTS

  1. Truth is, the Nats are not keen on getting back into government all that soon, as they know an economic downturn is coming.

    So it is better to not present much in policy and simply play the waiting game.

    They will wait for Labour and NZ First with the Greens in tow to struggle with the economic fall out, and then step up and BS the populace yet again with the ‘better economic manager’ propaganda.

    Wait and see it unfold.

    • Those are good points, but the wolves might come at night and turn National’s dreams to shame.

      Biding one’s time runs the risk of withering on the vine. By that I mean National’s party vote could end up being greatly diminished.

      Perhaps us Kiwis are just getting into the swing of MMP? After all many National voters are starting to learn what MPP means.

  2. I dunno so much. My gut feeling tells me Bridges will be rolled and incidentally, that’s what Winston Peters also seems to think. But not before they stick the knife into Paula Bennet.

    Et tu, Brutus ?

    And though they may try to put out a cover story of yet again another National party hack or leader leaving for family reasons like John Key and Bill English , – we will all know the real truth.

    It will be because of division, dissension and lack of unity on fundamental issues and not just financial, – but ethical. And there’s no hiding that or covering it up in the public arena. They know that , their party knows that , and we all know that.

    And people don’t like uncertainty or a divided party putting itself forward as being ‘ fit to lead’ when its not . And despite all the report makers and the lobby groups and the hangers on and the NZ Initiatives desperate pleas… they still have to deal with the NZ public.

    Stephen Joyces 11 billion dollar hole is long forgotten , – what isn’t forgotten is the colossal mess made by an incompetent National party under the song and dance man they called John Key. John Key the ‘there is no housing crisis or tax haven in NZ ‘ man.

    Blam Blam Blam.

    And there will be embarrassment in divers places because of him in the National party as well as every time that something more new and revealing is brought out into the open regarding their duplicity and treatment of large sectors of NZ society.

    Believe it or not,- there are some National party members that actually are not money grubbing craven bastards. Hard to believe I know but true.

    It would seem rather unseemly if those who had an axe to grind were to suddenly depose of one Paula Bennett then ( at the outset for a planned ‘decency’s sake’ ? ) take out the Godfather 6 months later … only to put their new shining and sparkling new song and dance man or woman in place as if nothing at all ever happened….

    Then again , … we are dealing with the National party and the party that likes to remind us all that they are the party of conservative and oh so homely values,… even if they were also the first party to have a bloodless coup in this country when PM Jim Bolger was out of the country in Europe and Jenny Shipley gathered her supporters, stabbed him in the back and rolled him without the democratic mandate of the populace…

    Perhaps we MAY just have something to worry about,…

    After all…

    You could be right, Martyn,… you could very well be quite right.

    • ‘Believe it or not,- there are some National party members that actually are not money grubbing craven bastards.’

      Those that run the show will ensure such people remain powerless, and that only people with ‘the right connexions’ and ‘the right attitudes’ have a say. We’ve seen it over and over and over again.

      • “Those that run the show will ensure such people remain powerless, and that only people with ‘the right connexions’ and ‘the right attitudes’ have a say.”

        As Attorney General Chris Findlayson, at the time did, in protecting National party president Goodfellow during an acrimonious divorce.

  3. Bang on. National voters will never change who they vote for. Trying to convince them otherwise is futile.

  4. Quit right. Giving voting rights and land purchasing rights to foreign residents is absolute madness, and can only end in civil conflict. Viva Los Dragones Azules!

    50% owners, foreign and elderly versus 50% have nots, young and local = blood and tears.

  5. You got it, Martyn.

    National policy will remain what it has always been: loot and pollute the commons; transfer wealth from those that have little to those that have far too much; ignore every aspect of the energy system and the environment that needed radical change long ago; lie to the public about practically everything. And when things go wrong, find someone else to blame.

    Needless to say, the corporate media will continue to endorse the looting and polluting, the wealth transfer, the ignoring of fundamentals, and will not notice the lying.

    Depressing, isn’t it?

  6. Thanks for the comedy Martyn. National cannot overtake Labour-NZ First-Greens. They will be in opposition for at least two more terms.

    • And i think this underserved compliancy is the problem.

      We hold the Parliament by 3 seats, that is a whisper thin tissue majority.

      • I very much understand your concern Martyn. But, Labour under Jacinda’s leadership will not go back to the mid 25% polling under previous leaders. Labour will hold steady even at the lowest level around 38%. Add to this Greens 7% and NZ First around 6%. You still have 51%. Yes it will be 2-3 seats majority, but that is MMP. Even at the peak of John Key and National, they mustered only 3-4 seats majority.

      • It certainly is when viewed in that light.

        And the danger of what you have been highlighting about another right wing neo lib puppet party being formed just to get National back in becomes even more an issue… remembering the odious Bob Jones forming his New Zealand party with the promise of cannabis law reform as bait simply to depose Rob Muldoon.

        It can and DOES happen.

  7. National party voters vote that way because they are better off doing that. Cant really blame them for that. Farmers have lived an isolated life and see little need for “community” as they are largely self sufficient. Thats why they hate paying tax and rates that they dont see much for. Fair enough.
    What angle could Labour take then? I suggest hammering the reasons for the increasing crime rate and violence and drugs. These poverty induced problems start to affect we wealthy people. Thats why we move south to Queenstown, the last bastion of the way NZ used to be. Turn the battering ram of crime/disorder around and hammer the reasons for it and how to address it. Who wants to live in a gated community in Auckland?
    I apologise to any good poor people. Well is poverty linked to these bad things? Sorry for the troll (I am not wealthy) but I do live down south and observe the exodus from Auckland, actually Kim shifted in next door (sorry another troll). The point-make them realise what community means and how it can benefit them. Also Jacinda hit me with a bolt when she talked about quality of life (we work like dogs then die)Hammer this-what is the end game for us all? Watch Nikki Kay Martin. even I would be lured by her. Poor Simon not so much.

  8. You’re right Martyn:

    Voters don’t vote new party’s into power, they vote old ones out.

    It is inevitable that the stresses and strains created when cobbling together the current coalition will eventually cause it to fragment.

    • WHAT ‘stresses and strains ‘ in ‘cobbling together ‘ are there in the current coalition. Most people seem to think they are pretty relaxed on the whole , – so much so that the PM had a reliable safe pair of hands with an old veteran like Peters taking over for 6 weeks while SHE had a baby.

      Now THAT’S confidence, my old chum.

      – As opposed to the gnashing of teeth, wailing and bemoaning at being ‘ripped off’ by MMP , coupled with the incompetence of Simon Bridges and the expected rolling of both him and his equally ridiculous and incompetent deputy.

      Things not looking that rosy for Nationals divided opposition ,… seems to be more than a whiff and hint of division and knife sharpening going on over in that camp…

      • And then there are the incompetent, bumbling hangers on, like Nick Smith and Gerry Brownlee…Andrew you should be very proud!

  9. Since when did National EVER have any genuinely new or innovative policies?
    And no Andy, ACC doesn’t count because National’s version was basically an update of the old workers compensation scheme and it took the Third Labour government to transform it into a more universal scheme.

  10. I think in general people like what the coalition government is doing but Labour and NZ First lost a lot of goodwill with TPPA and there is so much to call the government out about on their housing policies when the time comes.

    Maybe that is why the Natz decided to pretend for 8.9 years there was no housing crisis, the less said about housing the more popular the politicians?

    Anyway I think Labour are not doing too badly. NZ First and Greens might be in more trouble from a perception point of view.

    Natz are also in trouble as they are nobodies with no friends. They are a default vote.

    But agree, key groups support National and our immigration drive is specific to National voters (construction, trucking, lazy immigration turned towards attracting those from non democratic and corrupt countries that overwhelmingly vote National and are full of scams and swindles that are not being firmly shut down by government and thus we are getting that type of person coming into NZ and often able to vote within 2 years, skewering our voting in Auckland in particular. )

    We need to protect the integrity of our voting so political parties can’t import in voters.

  11. Bomber, how does the electoral arithmetic work re your suggestion of Mitchell becoming the leader of the New Conservatives (NC)? The Nats high water mark for their Party vote was 47% under a hugely popular Key. They won’t repeat that under any other leader. If Mitchell heads up the NC, holds his Rodney seat, (which is doubtful if he’s jumped ship for the lunatic fringe & is up against the waka jumping act) & gets NC, say 3% of the Party vote at the expense of National, that’s 42% (max.) for National, (present 45% less 3% for the NC) & 3% for NC, a total of 45%.

    Unless National & the NC can grow their combined Party vote to 51%, then they’re no better off. Whichever way you slice & dice it, the core Right Wing vote in NZ is 44 – 45%. As from 2020, the Millenials outnumber the Boomers. Are Millenials going to vote for neo liberalism? I think not

    • Comrade – you are right, I don’t believe National will crest 47%, but 45% or 46% isn’t impossible either.

      You are not taking into account that there is a 4% conservative vote that is independent of National. This will be down to the wire, no questions, but National + ACT + NC can get to 51% and they would be very right wing in their response to policy and culture.

      I am not saying National will win 2020, I’m saying they have every possible chance of pulling off a move like this and that complacency Jacinda will automatically get a second term is dangerous.

  12. Bomber, once the anti waka jumping act is in place, neither Mark Mitchell nor any other MP can switch parties to try & give the Nats a coalition partner

    • Comrade – National’s plan is to create a support party. Mark would resign from National Party and stand as the leader of this new party at the 2020 election and National wouldn’t run against him. The Bill allows a Party to eject MPs who swap parties during the term, National could chose not to do that.

  13. Yes Martyn – Your Article is very Important

    National is a band of Capitalists who, as other writers have also noted, suck from the poor to fill their bank accounts.

    There is a growing global distaste of evil Capitalism. For it has not distributed wealth to the many. Only to the Few.

    Complacency on the part of Labour and the Poor – can destroy the efforts of good people to lead the Country into Equity.

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