10 reasons why there will be a Labour-NZ First-Green Government and why it will take a month

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I’ve communicated briefly with Jacinda, I’ve spoken to some of the leading members of Labour’s negotiating team and I can assure you all, any suggestion Labour are just going to roll over and allow NZ First to go to National without a fight is utterly wrong.

Labour are in this to win this and they want to negotiate a new Government.

Comrade Trotter puts the chances of a change of Government at 25%. I think he’s wrong, I put the chance of a change at 50%.

I think a lot of pessimism from left on social media is due to widespread confusion about how MMP works – Lab+NZF+GP is the majority. After specials Lab+NZF+GP could = 63 seats – fight for change, don’t drown in self-defeat!

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If the left on social media understood how close we could be to a victory after specials are counted they wouldn’t be such miserable buggers!

Firstly, this will take a month. Specials won’t be counted for another fortnight, and then it will be at least 2 weeks of negotiations after that. If anyone thinks this is being sorted by the weekend are completely wrong. We all need to calm down and allow our democratic system to process the result from election night.

Here are the 10 reasons why there will be a Labour-NZ First-Green Government.

  1. Specials will give the Greens and Labour an extra MP each, which will take a Labour-NZ First-Green majority to 63 seats, that’s a working majority.
  2. The Left’s ‘3 headed monster’ is not worse than the Rights ‘4 headed monster’ that has run the country for last 9 years.
  3. When National Party supporters scream they have the majority, here are the facts:
    Centre right (Nat+Act+UF+Cons)
    2008: 49.45%
    2011: 48.98%
    2014: 51.92%
    2017: 46.86%, (will come down further with specials)
  4. National’s relationship and total capitulation to Chinese Business interests bonds Labour and NZ First. How mass immigration impacted Labour’s vote in Auckland will also raise eyebrows between Labour and NZ First.
  5. NZ First wants macro economic change that only Labour can give them.
  6. The Greens have a blueprint for environmental transformation that NZ First and Labour need to be credible on the environment.
  7. The Greens also have the blueprint for social welfare reform that will benefit the poorest which directly impacts the quality of life for many NZ First and Labour voters without the political risk for NZ First and Labour.
  8. Jacinda is in this to win this.
  9. Winston wants legacy, not bribes.
  10. Willie Jackson’s close personal friendship with Winston is Labour’s secret weapon.

77 COMMENTS

  1. +100 Great Post…time for optimism.!

    ( and I can think of a thousand other reasons for this Labour, NZF, Green coalition as well…a coalition which will be WIN, WIN, WIN in the Parliament profile leadership stakes for each of the Parties involved …and a WIN repeated in the Next Election…and maybe the Election after…New Zealanders will all be the winners with this coalition…each of these parties has so much to offer!)

    ..the New Zealand public voted for change! …they have “had enough”!…of their country and future being sold out from under them !

    • It’s all simple really;

      I have met Winston several times as we fight to save the Napier Gisborrne rail service.

      I know for certain Winston loves and cares for us kiwis.

      But when you turn attention in this manner towards the Bill English/SS Joyce combination, I have met SS Joyce twice and both times it has left me as though he hates kiwis with distain.

      Then as for Mr English;
      1/ I have sent him along with the former PM Mr Key 105 emails inside 5 yrs asking for a meeting through Wayne Eagleson Office of PM) and never once did he agree to meet us about rail.
      2/So both Joyce & English do not show any care or compassion.
      3/Only Winston shows pure compassion to us and desrves our support.
      4/ So Martyn has been proven to be 100% correct.

  2. Interesting comments Bomber. You are certainly right about everyone needing to calm down. I can only think that the hysteria is because for once we have a very real change of changing the government.

    The lefties (m’self included) get very excited at this and want it to happen yesterday. Obviously. We’ve had a gutsful.

    The righties (the devil curse their evil souls) are also getting very excited, but out of fear. Hence all their specious arguments about ‘majority’ should rule. They can see just how real the chance of a change really is. A cornered rat etc etc…

    Interestingly, the biggest hysteria is coming from the media. A look through the newspapers, TV programmes and radio, shows just how beholden to the tories they all are. Even dear ol’ RNZ; just check their web page.\

    They should be scared because they are in the greatest danger of all from a change of government.

    Me? I’ll just sit and wait and watch. Things have to happen in a sequence.

    Let it happen…

    • RNZ shouldn’t be – they’ve been promised a lot of money – even a TV station ! – by Labour. And of course Claire Curran has been a real champion for public media. Sadly even public churnalist have lost their ability to analyze anything – even to their own interests.

      • “Sadly even public churnalist have lost their ability to analyze anything – even to their own interests.”

        Publicly-funded journalists ought *not* to be reporting in their own interests, but in the *public* interest. Isn’t that the whole point of a public broadcaster? To be genuinely non-partisan?

  3. Here here agree 100% with Bark & Christine the media are busy doing what they do best undermine democracy under our MMP system.
    They do this when they don’t get there way and they want it right now. So then they start throwing their toys out of their cot. Tariana is being nasty she still hates labour and still hold grudges. In the meantime we have brash whipping up hysteria by jumping on the bandwagon.

    • Isn’t it annoying that we have to hear from these people? They had their chance, and are now completely unwanted, discredited. Far too much airtime for so little public respect.

      BTW, I feel sorry for the Maori Party, I think they were actually trying to do good; but ultimately NAT is their enemy and undermined them to their demise.

    • +100 Michelle.
      The right cannot help themselves. Their arrogant approach to these negotiations right from the get-go must be pissing Winston off big time.
      Talking to him through the media and trying to apply pressure by banging on about some sort of moral high ground is the exact WRONG way to go about things. It’s like Alfred Ngaro is helming the charm offensive!!

      Jacinda’s more softly softly inclusive approach is far more appealing. And the sort of style that will insure a coalition has some longevity.
      By being inclusive, she will be able to learn from a political master over three years and be in a position to push the Tories back into the abyss when they try to resurrect themselves at the next election.

  4. Am I the only one who’s noticed Bill English has taken to saying that NZ First needs to join National quickly to create a “strong and stable” government over and over? “Strong and Stable” was the mantra that Crosby Textor came up with for the Tory Party at the last UK election. It’s interesting to see they’ve resurrected it here in NZ.

    Apparently Lynton Crosby believes political parties need to adopt a slogan and keep repeating it ad infinitum to “cut through the media chatter.” It’s the reason Theresa May’s answer to every question she was asked during the UK election was “strong and stable government.” It will be interesting to see if it succeeds for Bill in hurrying Winston to sign a coalition deal. Winston’s past history suggests not.

    • We thought in our household of two that the line had been done to death by May and should have been Bill’s coffin nail. But maybe most NZers don’t pay much attention to overseas politics or they all would have vomited when he first used the phrase.
      D J S

  5. Good work Martyn. And to elaborate on all this NAT-has-the-majority rubbish:

    NAT does not have a ‘moral’ authority on anything – certainly not on forming a government. The only authority is >60 seats, as your framing of laft/right as blocs indicates.

  6. no 11, Labour helped Winston win Northland. The trust is there.
    no 12, National used dirty politics against Winston on his pension dropping NZ First votes and National will screw him over in an instant.
    no 13, last time NZ First supported National they were out of parliament.
    no 14, urgent electoral reform is needed in NZ, around election spending, transparency, biased media and open lying for NZ to have free and fair elections that opposition parties need to survive against our increasingly undemocratic system.

    • “no 13, last time NZ First supported National they were out of parliament.”

      NZ First’s decision to prop up Bolger’s National government with the 17 seats they won in 1996 was disastrous, but it still left them with 5 seats in 1996. Actually the only time NZ First have been out of parliament since they started was after the 2008 election after three terms of supporting Clark’s Labour government. But their fall that year was due mainly to the Own Glen scandal, which many suspect of being a dirty politics attack by those who wanted to punish Peters for backing Labour and Clark for so long.

      • yup…and unfortunately another party which should have known better shat ( shitted)on Winston from a great height 3 days out from the Election….thus destroying Clark and NZF….and putting in Nactional

        …as a Green voter I was appalled

  7. In the vague possibility of NZ First making the correct decision to shitcan National, can a list MP Waka jump?

    I am thinking back to Tuku and Tau etc who decided to trade in NZ First for something else. But if I recall correctly they were constituent MP’s.

  8. Mass immigration impacted the vote as the Electoral commission has no way of knowing whether people who enrol to vote are actually legitimate permanent residents or citizens.

    I have been made aware of instances where people on student visas and work visas have enrolled, and voted, with no consequences.

    • That would be gross electoral fraud. If true, it’s gouging right into the heart of NZ’s democracy. This is a topic worthy for some serious investigative journalism at the very least. Bet it doesn’t get any though.

      • Yep, I’m aware the legislation allows for that. Yet my conversations with the electoral commission yielded the result that the EC only do such checks when they’re “alerted” to specific instances.

        They don’t do it en masse as they should.

        That is disgusting.

          • I have.

            No response yet.

            It’s concerning as they obviously take a lot longer than two weeks to ascertain the eligibility of such votes.

            Should be an off season job – data match all enrolled voters with the DIA.

            Obviously too much of a common sense approach to warrant doing so. Easier to adopt the ostrich approach and pretend our electoral system is functioning as it should.

      • If a Lab/Grn/NZF coalition eventuates after lengthy discussion then one can only hope that a significant part of the discussions focussed on Coalition management and the who/what/when & where’s of ongoing ‘stability’ and the management of the public perception.

        Much as it pains me to say it , the means are available via the pernicious legislation the Gnats introduced re surveillance and the reduction in public oversight .
        I will be putting all effort I can muster into pushing for review & repealing much of it but until that time I would support the use of every available tool to drain the toxic lake of lies and manipulation that has ruled the political landscape for 12 years , root out the bottom dwellers from the slime that obscures them and incinerate all and sundry.
        The time for forgiveness and aroha is a generation ahead.

  9. Of course Labour and Greens will work on this, and maybe Winston will give this serious consideration also, but look at the policy of NZ First and Greens, perhaps, and see the significant differences.

    If the Greens go into this, they will be out of Parliament in 2020, that is my honest concern. There will be little Greens policy in the mix, if Winston is going it with Labour.

    His ‘Maori Affairs’ policy is like stuff from Don Brash’s handbook, that is Winston’s policy, and the Greens are totally opposed to what NZ First have on mind in that area.

    Compare NZ First’s pro primary industry, pro dairy, pro irrigation policies, with the opposite of Greens and Labour, and more differences are evident.

    But let it run its course, of course it is far too early to tell, what the final outcome will be. If Winston goes with Labour, he will get much his way, that is for sure.

    • Marc, Please reconsider this situation below I offer;

      ‘Forewarned is being forearmed.’

      To contimplate the opposite coalition Government in 2017 NZ of National/NZ First is dire for all come 2020 as National will hqavekilled off NZ First and then will go onto win 2020, 2003 and possibly 2026, as the weight of the voting rights of the ‘new imigrants’ national will have then deliberately opened wider will ensure this, so sthink of this please.

      I was living in Toronto during the flood of Chinese during the 1990’s (post Hong Kong exit) and that new voting block ensured a ruling (PC) ‘Progressive Conservative’ government was kept in power until recently when a liberal Government of PM justin Trudeu finally toppled the tories.

      • You are right with your concerns about immigration. It is not surprising that many immigrants appreciate being given a chance to live and work here, and they may show their gratitude to the party or parties in power, that allowed them to get visas or PR.

        But if Winston will go and support the Nats, the least he will insist on will be, to put a stop to the level of immigration we have had for a couple of years now. So that will be dealt with anyway, no matter which way Winston may go.

        NZ Herald, 11 Sept. 2017:

        ‘Poll: National will be back in Government if Chinese voters had their way”

        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11919332

        “The WTV-Trace Research Chinese Poll found 71.1 per cent of ethnic Chinese will vote for National if the election was held tomorrow, a 2.4 percentage point drop from its previous poll.”

        And with lower immigration, that may result in fewer voting Nats, while Labour and Greens gain strength in robust opposition, to come in with a landslide win in 2020, to govern into perhaps 2030s, reforming the country for good, after much damage done by the Nats.

    • It’s all simple really;

      I have met Winston several times as we fight to save the Napier Gisborrne rail service.

      I know for certain Winston loves and cares for us kiwis.

      But when you turn attention in this manner towards the Bill English/SS Joyce combination, I have met SS Joyce twice and both times it has left me as though he hates kiwis with distain.

      Then as for Mr English;
      1/ I have sent him along with the former PM Mr Key 105 emails inside 5 yrs asking for a meeting through Wayne Eagleson Office of PM) and never once did he agree to meet us about rail.
      2/So both Joyce & English do not show any care or compassion.
      3/Only Winston shows pure compassion to us and desrves our support.
      4/ So Martyn has been proven to be 100% correct.

    • I thought Trevor Mallard wanted that role? He didn’t stand for an electorate this time and he’s at 33 on the list. Suitably wily and well versed in Standing Orders.

      Could be fun.

      Whether he’ll be as useful as Lockwood Smith…? But has to be better than the present incumbent, and Margaret Wilson.

      Interesting times ahead. 🙂

  10. Labour/Green NZ first 3 way Govt. To complex, it would fracture, the public would get really pissed and we would again elect the Nats. Not forgetting, there is nothing really in Labour other than J.A.

    • I mean can we have a round of applause for big business. They really do know how to increase immigration while making it seem like every one else needs 3rd world wages.

    • The public are already pissed with 9 years of having a 4 way govt, – and a corrupt one at that. Lest we forget , – National , Maori , ACT , United Future. And one of those party’s was bogus ie : ACT.

      And with this election, it fractured.

      Also this election , NZ First , Greens and Labour have the majority to boot.

      • There is one small difference, we are talking about two larger ‘small’ parties like NZ First and the Greens, and a larger party like Labour, all having significant sets of policies, interests and clout, albeit the Greens now somewhat decimated.

        With National in past governments, there were admittedly small support parties, but what kind of joke of a party was UF, a one man show led by Peter Dunne (with a fancy hairdo and vain outlook), what a joke is ACT, another one man show, only there, because the Nats shoed them into Parliament, and the other one was MP, a one man and one woman duo, desperate to be noticed, ready for some humble deals for attention.

        ACT got charter schools, stuff the Nats wanted anyway, as a pet project, Dunne got associate areas like revenue and health and something else, as a kind of sideshow hobby to be occupied with, and the Maori Party got Whanau Ora as their little vanity project to be occupied with, and boast about.

        All three were true hangers on parties, with little clout, and low risk to upset the relationship with the dominant Nats, so the Nats ran a safe job there, if any would raise their voice, they would have been out, e.g. Dunne or Seymour, and the Nats still had MP to get them through.

        With Greens, NZ First and Labour the situation will be a bit more difficult to manage, as they all went into elections with great plans and ambitions, which did not quite turn out as hoped for. So some compromises will be possible, but in 2020 it could cost the Greens the chance to get back into Parliament, should they be seen as too insignificant in a line up with Labour and Winston First.

        • Oh the Greens. Where did you go wrong?

          Metiria hitting the force quit button was not ideal. Now the Greens sit bellow where they were before the elections. With a coleader weathered into the position of Climate. Alone. James Shaw’s political career rests on getting the Green Energy Fund through and I wouldn’t blame him if he went with National just to reduce carbon emissions by a $million tons per year. Alone James Shaw has little room to negotiate except for lay the ground for Winston Peters to turn left.

          Cloe is undercooked. Already nubs are saying she should run for co leader and I’m like stop filling her head with shit ideas. Marama Davidson God bliss her weebe heart fails at economics. People may not like economics but face it. With out explaining in simple terms to simple people the complex process of making money people will just come back and say it sounds like a scam. That just leaves Julian Genter, for me is an obvious choice.

          The rest of them. Māori party ect are irrelevant. Should have read the tea leaves. If they had they might have smelt the dead bodies and noticed a liar standing next to a hole.

    • you can re-elect the gnats Dave but people like me and others will make sure the Chinese who are not NZ citizens and others will not be able to vote.

    • What a dork you are Dave, National was in power with a four way deal and it survived even if it was corrupt and full of shit. Why on earth wouldn’t a thre way deal survive and with larger parties and govern like any other European coalition. Couldn’t let your comment go without holding you up for the crap it was.

  11. You left out Utu, which as we all know is served best cold.

    Firstly you have Winston’s sacking, that BE played a major roll in. More recently you have his pension leak.

    He will never admit it, but one of Winston’s legacy’s will be to deny Bill English an election victory, for the second time.

    • Yet that’s MMP, which the electorate voted for.

      And it has been noticed that is the sort of sour grapes that scared right wingers are putting up as of late , – as is the bogus ‘ morality’ thing about being the party with the most votes and therefore having some claim to rule.

      The facts are National had THREE OTHER party’s all that time to supplement their govt.

      Now the boots on the other foot and Labour , Greens , and NZ First hold the majority, – those same right wingers are suddenly getting all septic about democracy.

      I wonder why.

      • Historically National governed on two occasions under FPP with the most seats but received less of votes cast than Labour received.
        National had no problem accepting the election victory, even though the
        majority of voters, voted against them.
        Somethings remain the same.

    • It’s not really one person that can determine who will govern.Technically the Greens or Labour could decide the issue tomorrow and I feel it’s inappropriate to pile the pressure onto NZF to make a quick decision.
      There’s plenty of time to come to a decision, it’s not as if National is going to do anything at all drastic or radical ,as per usual, while being the caretaker government.
      I’m happy to wait and give time for the process to work.

    • Whilst I agree that the situation has the potential to be abused, I for one am confident that Winston Peter’s vision will benefit the majority of New Zealanders as opposed to solely
      the 2%-10% whose drive it is to buy, own, franchise privatise and corporatise anything and everything for the sake of their own wallets and bank accounts at the expense of everyone else and the environment.

      • We share so much with America, yet we haven’t reached the degradation of America in these lusts of the ruling class as ideals.

  12. @ bert – totally agree re the speaker – good riddance!
    Nine years of a backwards government – fingers crossed for something so much better!

    • Thank’s Kim, it would probably have been okay if Carter wasn’t openly biased but the protection of English over the Barclay issue bordered on corruption and was the last straw. Another thing that still rings in my ear from Carter “as far as the minister has ministerial responsibility” What the hell does that mean, they take home a ministerial salary don’t they?

  13. Oh so much pragmatism and realpolitik that has caught on with so many Daily Blog readers. Compromises seem possible and acceptable now, simply to make sure the Nats get kept off the government benches. The revolution has been postponed, for now.

    • Whereas National and their supporters remain completely honourable and would never compromise on a single principle in order to cling to power.

      Yeah right.

  14. It’s not really one person holding the balance of power, but even if it were, what the hell? Winston Peters is, and has always been, one of the most effective performers in Parliament. We have become too accustomed to sleazy behaviour from the National Party. I am bone weary of seeing media describe English as a devout Catholic, practising Catholic, honest Bill etc when he is a dodgy character who doesn’t care about people, has helped create our current poor, and our ill, and our dispossessed; Joyce is a bad joke, arrogant and silly; Bennett’s shopping Hurimoana Denis to the media looked spiteful, because he was achieving something she had failed at; her loud boisterousness verges on hysteria. I wonder how often she shops – apart from buying $700 shoes and getting all excited about them. Yuk.

    Can anyone imagine James Shaw or Jacinda Adern ever behaving in the repulsive anti-social dishonest way that so many of the current govt do?
    We need clean honest wholesome talented politicians and we need them very much.

  15. We all need to wait and be patient for the special votes many of these votes were only special because the electoral commission could not and did not do their job properly based on the gnats bad form underfunding could explain why. Now we cant say don’t worry because two more seats could be at stake here and it is no good having a system in place and then undermining it because certain people are in a hurry. And don’t blame NZ post the gnats purposely ran this business into the ground so they can set it up for a sale . Just like they did with many of our state assets.

  16. More reasons….if Labour , NZF and Greens do not take control of the leadership of this country… and they are not seen in action and in leadership command ( instead of being on the back benches)….they will have let go forever the opportunity to get New Zealand sovereignty and democracy back on the rails…New Zealand for New Zealanders:

    1.)…one of the first things they must do is ensure civics education in secondary schools and enroll all New Zealander 16 year olds on the roll

    (imo voting should be compulsory next Election…it is not acceptable that a huge number of young New Zealanders are so alienated that they do not vote)

    2.)…there needs to be statistics on who owns what in New Zealand…New Zealanders need to know how much of their land and housing and assets ( eg water and public utilities and primary and export industries ) are now in foreign ownership and control ….and this includes all foreign ownership hiding behind Company and Trust structures

    …Nactional has kept this well hidden from New Zealanders …knowledge is power and the Nacts have deliberately kept New Zealanders in the dark ( the Nacts are selling our country out)

    …Regarding foreign ownership and control it is only through this statistical opening of the books , auditing and big data knowledge that a government by New Zealanders and for New Zealanders can plan and take action and take back our sovereignty

  17. Martyn, you nailed it. Those being so negative should take a walk.

    While on that walk think.

    1. Greens will be part of a progressive government for the first time.

    2. We will have a positive Leader and a reinvigorated Labour team.

    3. We will have Winston’s knowledge and smarts.

    4. The agreed policies will be good for people, as the decisions will be people based not dollar based

    5. We will find out about Pike River, Christchurch, Winz/MSD plus other questionable things …. Blue Dragons, donations, infrastructure.

    All good.

  18. No matter who NZF goes with they will last 1 election cycle only! As much as I want National in Govt. I feel the price is too big in having Winnie in partnership with National. NOW a Lab/Gre/NZF would be the political dictionary definition of a Clusterfuck! Go Jacinta and James….you will cause a snap election within 2 years, now pass the popcorn! (I still stand by my prediction, whether Lab in Govt or not, Jacinta will step down early in the new year due to stress or pregnancy…Little will be Labour leader again. 🙂

    • I think Nat/Greens could work if the Greens could swallow some pride. we all want cleaner rivers and electric cars and reasonable action in respect of global warming. Think about, an intelligent and green government, sounds pretty good to me.

      • The Greens would have to swallow a lot more have pride to join a coalition with National .Their policies are fundamentally opposed, in many areas.
        I’m sure National would love to have the Greens as a coalition partner, but for the Greens it would mean political suicide and I think National would see that as a secondary bonus in the long term.

    • Go Jacinta and James….you will cause a snap election within 2 years, now pass the popcorn! (I still stand by my prediction

      No, not so much a “prediction” as a forlorn hope. Your party may be consigned to the Opposition benches for not just the next three years, Imright, but perhaps for three terms.

      During that time a centre-left government will gradually unpick the neo-liberal paradigm, piece by piece.

      That is your fear, whether you realise it or not.

      Now pass that f*****g popcorn because I want a front-row seat to the demise of thirty years of free market failure.

  19. “Labour are in this to win…..”

    Ha ha. What a joke.

    It would take a lot to convince me that Labour was in this to win.

    Labour’s 2017 election strategy was a rerun of Labour’s 2014 election strategy. Destroy any independent Maori voice in parliament, even if it costs us the election.

    Instead of seeking allies these complete sectarian idiots have proportionately spent more time and energy trying to destroy any independent Maori voice in parliament than they have in trying to beat the Nats.

    And what was Labour’s rational for their strategy to destroy the Maori Party, because they dared go into coalition with National.

    How ironic that Labour are now (supposed to be) courting New Zealand First which has also been in coalition with National.

    I mean if that was the reason that Labour was against the Maori Party, then surely they would want to have nothing to do with NZF as well.

    Labour’s antipaty to the Maori Party also does not explain Labour’s even greater antipathy to Hone Harawira when he split from the National Maori Party coalition.

    And what would Labour be prepared to give NZF in return for this mythical coalition?

    Shit on the Greens, by reversing their support for clean rivers?

    Shit on Maori by reversing their opposition to holding a racist and divisive referendum to get rid of the Maori electorates?

    I suppose it could be possible, Martyn, considering that Labour have shit on the Greens in past coalition agreements, and shit on Maori over the seabed and foreshore.

  20. Interesting to read the 10 reasons why Winston will go to the left, but it’s a real shame that the Maori walked away from their only party. Just think what they could have done with their seven seats the way MMP allows them, if they stuck together. Now they are mixed up and only a voice among many. I know who I would have preferred to have the power.
    How about a mix of all parties, is it not time we achieved whats best for everyone?

  21. Interesting to read the 10 reasons why Winston will go to the left, but it’s a real shame that the Maori walked away from their only party. Just think what they could have done with their seven seats the way MMP allows them, if they stuck together. Now they are mixed up and only a voice among many. I know who I would have preferred to have the power.
    How about a mix of all parties, is it not time we achieved whats best for everyone?

  22. The media hasn’t made much of the concurrent MMP election in Germany–are we the only 2 countries with this PR system? But I think I heard mention, in reference to Merkel’s difficulties in forming a coalition, that Germany had never had more than 2 parties in a coalition. And down to the nitty-gritty of parliamentary majorities neither us (?).

  23. Here are the 10 reasons why there will be a National-NZ First Government.

    1/ Specials will give the Greens and Labour an extra MP each, which will take a Labour-NZ First-Green majority to 63 seats, that’s a working majority.

    (As if Winnie cares, Peters has already said that he doesn’t care about the so called “convention” of giving his support to the biggest bloc.)

    2/ The Left’s ‘3 headed monster’ is not worse than the Rights ‘4 headed monster’ that has run the country for last 9 years.

    (Neither would it be better, especially with all the concessions Labour would have to concede to Peters to get his support. And yes it could be worse, especially if Labour concedes Winston Peters his racist and divisive referendum to get rid of the Maori electorates, which could tear the country apart).

    3/ When National Party supporters scream they have the majority, here are the facts:
    Centre right (Nat+Act+UF+Cons)
    2008: 49.45%
    2011: 48.98%
    2014: 51.92%
    2017: 46.86%, (will come down further with specials)

    (As if Winnie gives a toss. See 1/)

    4/ National’s relationship and total capitulation to Chinese Business interests bonds Labour and NZ First. How mass immigration impacted Labour’s vote in Auckland will also raise eyebrows between Labour and NZ First.

    (Labour and the Green’s capitulation to NZF Yellow Peril racism, is setting off on a dangerous slope, possibly even to the point of ripping the social fabric of this country. For instance, when Peters first played the anti-immigrant card immigrant families were spontaneously beaten in the streets, and in Mt Albert, Auckland, immigrant families had stones thrown through their windows. This veiled accusation of a ‘migrant quake’ is just speculation. I did notice how you cunningly posed this as a question Martyn.
    There is no factual evidence that mass immigration affected Labour’s vote. This is just indulging in the sort of demogoguery that Donald Trump used to demonise Mexican immigrants in the US. You should be ashamed Martin to indulge in this sort of racist speculation.

    5/ NZ First wants macro economic change that only Labour can give them. (Does Labour want macro economic change?
    Indeed does New Zealand First?
    Again this, if not speculation, is wishful thinking.)

    6/ The Greens have a blueprint for environmental transformation that NZ First and Labour need to be credible on the environment.

    (As if Labour cares about being credible on the environment, Labour supports deep sea oil drilling and opening new coal mines, policy positions that Jacinda Ardern says that Labour does not resile from, and presumably, will not concede to the Greens on. New Zealand First’s inclusion in a Labour Green coalition will strengthen the Labour’s determination to continue the opening new coal mines and unconventional fossil fuel technologies like deep sea oil drilling, the very programmes that James Hansen of NASA fame says, will mean “game over for the climate”.

    7/ The Greens also have the blueprint for social welfare reform that will benefit the poorest which directly impacts the quality of life for many NZ First and Labour voters without the political risk for NZ First and Labour.

    (Why don’t Labour, or New Zealand First have a ‘blueprint for social welfare reform that will benefit the poorest’?

    They don’t, and Two still outnumbers One.)

    8/Jacinda is in this to win this.

    (This is probably the biggest joke of all. If Jacinda was “in this to win this” she would not have willfully trashed all probable allies. In fact she hinted very early on that she intended to become leader of the opposition, when she said that she was “in this for the long haul”.)

    9/ Winston wants legacy, not bribes.

    (We are talking about the Minister of Baubles here)

    10/ Willie Jackson’s close personal friendship with Winston is Labour’s secret weapon.

    (In politics, as in international affairs, there is no such thing as permanent friends, only permanent interests.)

    We should be mobilising, even now, for the biggest mass coalition to oppose NZF in government, especially their racist and divisive scapegoating that doesn’t address the root causes of poverty or homelessness or Maori disadvantage, but instead sets working people against each other.

    The saddest thing is that by reaching out to the racist Right personified by Winston Peters and NZF, undermines our chances of building a grand grass roots coalition on the Left and with Centre Left, against these polices when they are attempted to be put into law.

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