I’ve communicated briefly with Jacinda, I’ve spoken to some of the leading members of Labour’s negotiating team and I can assure you all, any suggestion Labour are just going to roll over and allow NZ First to go to National without a fight is utterly wrong.
Labour are in this to win this and they want to negotiate a new Government.
Comrade Trotter puts the chances of a change of Government at 25%. I think he’s wrong, I put the chance of a change at 50%.
I think a lot of pessimism from left on social media is due to widespread confusion about how MMP works – Lab+NZF+GP is the majority. After specials Lab+NZF+GP could = 63 seats – fight for change, don’t drown in self-defeat!
If the left on social media understood how close we could be to a victory after specials are counted they wouldn’t be such miserable buggers!
Firstly, this will take a month. Specials won’t be counted for another fortnight, and then it will be at least 2 weeks of negotiations after that. If anyone thinks this is being sorted by the weekend are completely wrong. We all need to calm down and allow our democratic system to process the result from election night.
Here are the 10 reasons why there will be a Labour-NZ First-Green Government.
- Specials will give the Greens and Labour an extra MP each, which will take a Labour-NZ First-Green majority to 63 seats, that’s a working majority.
- The Left’s ‘3 headed monster’ is not worse than the Rights ‘4 headed monster’ that has run the country for last 9 years.
- When National Party supporters scream they have the majority, here are the facts:
Centre right (Nat+Act+UF+Cons)
2017: 46.86%, (will come down further with specials)
- National’s relationship and total capitulation to Chinese Business interests bonds Labour and NZ First. How mass immigration impacted Labour’s vote in Auckland will also raise eyebrows between Labour and NZ First.
- NZ First wants macro economic change that only Labour can give them.
- The Greens have a blueprint for environmental transformation that NZ First and Labour need to be credible on the environment.
- The Greens also have the blueprint for social welfare reform that will benefit the poorest which directly impacts the quality of life for many NZ First and Labour voters without the political risk for NZ First and Labour.
- Jacinda is in this to win this.
- Winston wants legacy, not bribes.
- Willie Jackson’s close personal friendship with Winston is Labour’s secret weapon.