In 2014, NZers shrugged over dirty politics & mass surveillance lies & voted in National to protect their speculative property bubble wealth, so as a progressive, to be where we are with Labour + Greens + NZ First being the majority, that’s a major victory.
Special votes which include many of the ‘youth quake’ who enrolled and advanced voted are 384, 072 (15% of the total vote) and they won’t be counted for another 2 weeks. It is believed that Labour and the Greens will benefit most from that and expectations are National and NZ First will come down and the Labour/Green bloc will benefit.
Analysis suggests Labour and the Greens will each add an MP from the special votes which would gives a Labour + NZF + GP majority of 63 seats in Parliament.
The disgusting way National have openly lied to our faces has been extraordinary. They have utterly failed to explain and justify how their mass immigration, milk powder to China and property speculation economic policy is helping 41 000 homeless, 10 000+ in prison, 300 000 kids in poverty, generations locked out of home ownership, student debt, infrastructure gridlock and mental health breakdown and instead just lied to our faces!
There was no $11.7billion dollar hole, no one would have paid more in income tax and claiming inequality and poverty were high because of the Christchurch earthquake as Paula Bennett did was beneath our collective intelligence, but it worked.
Lies, deceit and wilful ignorance was National’s campaign and it worked well enough to win National 46% of the vote.
Corporate mainstream media:
The right wing corporate media won this result for National. The tirade of right wing attack columnists and pundits who swamped all the newspapers and panel shows to repeat National Party spin lines was extraordinary.
The way they lynched Metiria for courageously pointing out how damaged and punitive our neoliberal welfare state agencies have become while ignoring a possible Chinese spy in the National Government highlights the obscene double standards of our rich white male broadcasters.
Willie Jackson:
Incredible result for the Campaign manger of the Maori campaign. A total 7 seat sweep of the Maori electorates on top of an incredible pumping up of the Party vote for Labour by Maori voters in the Maori electorates and the General seats marks Willie Jackson out as front bench material. The Maori faction within the Labour Party is now the largest faction but most importantly, Willie Jackson’s close personal relationship with Winston means he is the nervous system connection between Labour and NZ First that Jacinda will need to make a Labour led Government work. If you want any clear idea of how likely a Labour led Government will occur, watch to see the interaction between Willie and Winston.
China:
The full implications of the devastating University of Canterbury investigation into National’s total acquiesce to Chinese business interests was lost in the noise of the election. TDB will be running some analysis of this because it will quickly become the major issue moving forward now. The level of control China has over the National Party makes tonights result for National as big a win for Beijing as it is for Bill English.
TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com
Jacinda:
8 weeks ago, Labour were 23%, they ended up with 35.8%. For Jacinda to have turned it into a race shows there is hope for us and our democracy. Whatever else happens, we should celebrate that. Her emotional intelligence and her political values will make her an incredible Prime Minister this time or next. She was extraordinary. She is the hero of my 7year old daughter and has given so many a hope we had forgotten.
Blue Dragons:
The rise and rise and rise of the influcene of Chinese New Zealanders within the National Party mark them as one of the largest factions inside National now. The utter dominance Chinese business interests have in the private lives of leading National Party MPs as highlighted in the University of Canterbury report means National will continue to feed the Blue Dragons until they end up getting eaten by them.
Dairy propaganda:
The Dairy propaganda adverts on TV were hilarious. So terrified are Fonterra that the rest of the country is getting sick to death of them stealing and polluting our water, they were desperately pumping these farcical adverts out to try and distract Kiwis from the wholesale abuse of their industry.Richie McCaw wanders around a Farm in the early morning and marvels at the pristine goodness of these human beings as if Jesus himself had personally popped down to the milking shed to milk a herd before feeding 5000 with a block of cheese.
Indeed the most recent advert actually goes as incredibly far as suggesting milk is some kind of miracle drug that can help paralysed teenagers walk again.
You have to see it to believe it…
…that’s right folks, Dairy doesn’t shit into our rivers or steal our water! They didn’t get National to privatise 49% of our state owned energy assets to create an irrigation slush fund worth $400million to convert as many square inches of NZ into intensified dairy farms! Oh no! They create a miracle juice that helps the sick and needy!
This level of delusion summed up the angry Farmers who protested against Labour and it showed Fonterra that their propaganda was essential in rallying National’s base vote with deceptive myths.
Winston:
Despite a train wreck of a campaign (that radio interview with Guyon Espiner was jaw dropping) and despite getting less than they did in 2014 and despite all the belief that NZ First would be 15%, Winston remains the King or Queen maker. In NZ politics, the loser selects the winner, I’m not sure how positive that is. Winston now has the most important choice of his entire political life in front of him, prop up a corrupt, lying National Party that is effectively a front for Chinese business interests or legitimise a Jacinda led Government who can turn his macro economic dreams about tapping the Super fund for regional infrastructure into a reality.
Neoliberalism:
The cultural mythologies that the poor are to blame for being poor, the political disconnect of those poor who don’t vote and the selfishness that it produces in those who do vote are all major wins for the neoliberal agenda. None of the political parties (other than NZ First) are openly suggesting political economic push back against neoliberalism. The political economic structure that has robbed NZ of so much of its value is still the dominant force, if Labour + NZ First + Green are to make any traction as a Government, serious push back must occur.
Andrew Little:
His foresight and courage to fall onto his own sword for Labour was an act of true leadership.
Chris Trotter:
Trotter was the first pundit who came out on TV and demand that Jacinda pick up the leadership in the wake of the 23% Poll result. He claimed then that only she had the ability to lift Labour. Trotter was right before anyone else.
LOSERS:
The Maori Party:
Terrible night for the Maori Party. Their relationship with National finally cost them the credibility to be the independent Maori voice they claimed to be. The loss of Marama Fox will be a heavy one.
Bill English, Steven Joyce & Paula Bennett:
The bare faced lies these three told the country to scare voters can never and will never be forgiven. They are liars and must now be described as liars any time they are mentioned.
The homeless, the poor and 300000 children in poverty:
The agony of the 41 000 homeless, the poor, the 10 000 in prison, the 1600 dying each year from the cold, the 300 000 children in poverty, the 1500 committing suicide, the hundreds of thousands locked out of home ownership – none of that mattered to 46% of those who voted National.
MMP:
The way the smaller parties have been destroyed, some serious questions need to be made about the way our 5% threshold strangles off real democracy and a chance to build them. We need to wipe that threshold so that we gain real representation and generate political dynamism because this isn’t working right now.
Green Party Strategists:
There are major issues in terms of the Green Party strategists. The Greens have selected Wellington insider after Wellington insider to their team and it’s led to an intellectual inbreeding, how the fuck they allowed Metiria to do what she did without having paid the bloody thing before she made her declaration is jaw dropping in its incompetence and total lack of insight in terms of how the media were going to crucify her. Green strategy for the last 3 years was completely dependent on a weak Labour, the second, the fucking second that changed the Greens didn’t have the imagination or foresight to implement anything other than begging for their life. Heads really need to roll.
The Environment:
Our environment is the second biggest loser by tonights results.
Economy: There are real dangers of an economic collapse that demand more than more immigration and milk powder.
National’s relationship with China:This is a building story that will not go away.
Cultural polarisation:We are a far more culturally gated society than we admit, 70% of National voters don’t know anyone unemployed and this has led to different NZs who are blind to the pain of the other.
Total lack of critical media analysis: The same pundits and voices shunted around each others online political panels and ‘left’ commentators who meekly and politely put their point of view while rabid right wing pundits lie and attack.
Conclusion:
After specials, Labour + NZ First + Greens will have a majority, now is the time to show how hard they want to fight for it.The most terrifying part of the result is that 46% of NZ’s voters support more homelessness, more poisoned rivers, more property speculation, less mental health funding, more experiments in education, no infrastructure investment, more NZers in prisons and 300000 kids in poverty in return for $20 extra a week and half a dozen more bloody roads!
Labour + NZ First + Greens have the chance to stop this guy from influencing our future…
If maori had voted labour for their party vote and maori in their electorate I.e maori party win all maori electorates, would this give 7 ‘extra’ seats in parliament and enabled a labour/green/maori coalition? Or would the over hang reduce the percentage of seats allocated to other parties?
How true that last statement …………..That nearly half of voters in this country voted in favour of poverty, pollution and ruthless exploitation,plus Lying right down the camera ……people need to just read it again and again and take that statement in again
“Its not he who votes that counts, but he who counts the votes ”
Done my own polls and these media numbers just don’t add up.
As Te Ururoa said that Bill English was a good prime minister it’s more likely to have turn out as a National/maori/act govt.
Yes Cag our people knew the Maori party would once gain prop up the gnats and this is why him and fox had to go.
Why cry te ururoa I didn’t see him crying for the many NZers suffering. Is he upset he no longer has a nice salary and a bmw well I have no pity for him and fox based on the interviews yesterday they still don’t get it we (Maori ) wanted a change. I am immensely proud of our people they finally saw through the maori parties façade.
Now despite all the bias media and I saw the glee on our journalist faces of both TV 1 and 3 we still have a very good chance to getting rid of these liars and crooks. These are the people that helped try to take Winstone out. Now just like the polls predicted he is the king maker.
If someone took $170,000 plus salary plus perks off me, I’d be crying for a year!
Can someone please answer this question? I’ve wondered this myself
you forget that national has been the maori party fundraiser for 9 long years in exchange they got a subservient coalition partner as plan B
All very true Bomber but the one that particularly sticks in my craw and speaks to the rest of the world is your concluding paragraph.
That nearly half of voters in this country voted in favour of poverty, pollution and ruthless exploitation makes me not want to live here anymore. Kiwis are NOT the nice people they think they are.
Is that really how you want to be seen?
+1
“Kiwis are NOT the nice people they think they are.”
+1
A National supporter suggested, vote for National and donate your tax cut to to the Salvation Army, what a weird and contorted social logic Kiwi’s have.
Are we privatizing Govermental social responsibilities,It certainly looks that way with social housing.
Feels like we’ve all fallen down a rabbit hole and the mad hatter has the treasury bench.
You’re bl’min right there. But then, ‘Kiwi’s’ apart from being flea ridden birds living down holes and feeding on insects; might be an apt description, as Syd Jackson use to say. But did you know that a few years ago, a question on whether or not NZ should re-introduce the ‘Death Penalty’, came up. The response from those surveyed, was similar to the views on Capital Punishment in Texas. That’s a big thumbs down for your average Kiwi Joe and Jane in the street; brought up on a steady diet of Yankee Corporate warmedia and US TV violence as entertainment. That’s what happens when you live in a ‘dumbed down society.’
Yea I can believe it,,I’m astounded at times as to the lack of progress made.We have a significant sector of conservative rednecks that are a massive hand brake on New Zealand social and economic development.
I watched the utube Hollow men by Nicky Hager today ,very depressing. I guess being from an agrarian society I should accept being farmed,is anything real and true in this country.
Actually, it was not half. It was half of the people who bothered to vote…and that was about 36% of the population that was eligible to vote. Once again, about 23% of the population did not even bother to vote.
Thanks for that – that’s what I’ve been thinking. I’ve been shocked that even the children of my own siblings haven’t enrolled (cos they didn’t get around to it!) – won’t be a problem next time though as I’m kicking their butts.
One of mine didn’t vote,I think he might be right leaning.I thanked him for abstaining.
He was puzzled as to why I would get a a $1,000 dollar tax cut as I don’t have a need, I begged to differ I’m spending mine on a weekend trip to Aussie for a ” All you can eat sea food ” buffet.
Targeted tax cuts what a laugh,he wasn’t amused ,me being a greedy baby boomer .
You are emphasising what needs to be emphasised:
“The most terrifying part of the result is that 46% of NZ’s voters support more homelessness, more poisoned rivers, more property speculation, less mental health funding, more experiments in education, no infrastructure investment, more NZers in prisons and 300000 kids in poverty in return for $20 extra a week and half a dozen more bloody roads!”
Yesterdays vote was NOT a progressive one, NOT a success for progressives, NOT at all, it is a depressing result.
I followed the reporting on TV1, on Newshub and TV3, also on Maori TV, RNZ and here, which was a bit lacking I feel. I had hoped for a pleasant surprise, where Labour and Greens would have gained more votes, ideally even beating the Nats. I was extremely disappointed though, and as it was forecast, Winston Peters and NZ First have ended up as Queen or King makers.
Instead of being able to celebrate something, I ended up drowning my sorrow and disappointment. When vote counting started, and after about one percent were counted, Labour was even close to forty percent, but soon that was decimated, then going as low as even 35 percent, last close to 36 percent. The greatest disappointment was the result for the Greens. I had hoped, even expected, that they would at least get seven to eight percent of the vote, but the end result has them just over the five percent threshold now.
That is after 85 percent of votes counted, so some percentages and indeed seats may yet go to Labour and even the Greens, after counting special votes. But it will hardly bring Labour and Greens close to governing alone, and any coalition or supply and support agreement with NZ First will NOT bring the needed progressive kind of government we hoped for.
NZ First will insist on NO water tax on farmers, only wanting royalties on bottled water for exports. They will insist on a referendum on the Maori seats, they will also want to do things that helps NZ business, lower taxes for them that is. In other areas they are not so clear to check out, but at least they will insist on reducing immigration, which I consider one plus at least.
The Greens are the smallest and weakest partner in such an arrangement, if it should eventuate, and will have little input in what the new government will do, they can only appreciate that Jacinda Ardern and Labour have adopted some Greens policy, but that will likely not be what Winston will support.
It should seriously be considered to stay in opposition, as that will enable Labour to let new MPs get the grip of the job and policy matters, and to prepare for an even greater battle in 2020. The Greens would also better stay in opposition, as they could as a weak link in a fragile coalition with NZ First and Labour lose appeal to many and be out of Parliament in 2020, as punishment. Green voters will not settle for a diluted Greens policy that has little mention in a coalition government’s goals.
Only Winston can smile and celebrate, he can pick and choose now, and force any partner, Nats or Labour and others, to agree to some core policy he highlighted. Let us not forget, NZ First also like to appear to be tough on crime, and law and order, and they do not offer much hope for those on benefits, as they want to bring in work for the dole and stuff.
I think those now contemplating a Labour, NZ First and Greens government are overly hopeful and idealistic. It will most likely mean a one term Labour led government, and Jacinda may better get more experience of being in charge for another three years.
The Nats will in any case bring in increased Accommodation Supplement and some tax relief also for low earners, if they stay in government, and Winston will push for them to also do other stuff, that helps those less fortunate, e.g. a bigger increase in the minimum wage and so.
Hence, I am not happy about all this what we have now, even if it looks a bit better on 7 October. We will have more of the usual, with some moderate improvements here and there. Perhaps let the Nats run the country into more difficult times, then people, also those that have voted Nats, may finally realise, there needs to be a firm change in 2020.
… ” NZ First will insist on NO water tax on farmers, only wanting royalties on bottled water for exports. They will insist on a referendum on the Maori seats, they will also want to do things that helps NZ business, lower taxes for them that is. In other areas they are not so clear to check out, but at least they will insist on reducing immigration, which I consider one plus at least ” …
The real culprits, … those farming establishments not owned by New Zealanders , even those that are ,… have been served their writs. They are now well aware the spotlight is on them. This works into the hands of the Greens , and even of NZ First regards foreign investment and immigration. The party’s over in that sector.
They have had the spotlight turned on them.
As for Chinese owned farms using NZ as a base for soft power, … all eyes will be turned towards those out – of – the – public – eye places where they have been conducting their clandestine experiments…
As will be certain National MP’s who are intimately connected with offshore Chinese business interest regarding bottled water , – and the failure of this govt in not only charging royalty’s , – but taxation on foreign multinationals. Labour has already said it will go after these freeloaders.
As for the Maori seats ?
It could be argued that the nationwide referendum has already occurred regarding the abolition of the Maori seats , – and met with a resounding NO.
Those with most to lose , – have already voted. The Maori people themselves. And not only that ,… they have endorsed Labour as the trustee’s of those seats. It would be a very bold National govt that would seek to make a future issue of that. And if NZ First went with Labour / Greens? ,… it would not be worth raising . Remember also Peters bottom line was a ‘ referendum’ on whether to retain the Maori seats , with the Maori community ultimately left to decide. Well ,… they have decided, therefore it is no longer an issue.
Only a fool would now seek to keep raising the issue.
At the final reel?
The Left will win, no matter if NZ First goes with National of Labour. If anything , this election has signaled a real desire for change.
Bloody well thought WK.
As to the referendum, I heard Winston saying to a reporter yesterday that the Maori seats issue was only a part of a referemdum that he had endorsed from his party and it was definately not his saying he does not want them, he said clearly that it would be up to the maori themselves ifg they want to keep the seats and he said he was always clear about this, but said the media was painting it as his not wanting the seats.
I would find it resonable to agree that the media would be keen to ‘frame’ Winston for any ‘contentious’ issues theybn could find just to appease their puppet-masters.
Good clear analysis Martyn , thankyou.
IMO
“The cultural mythologies that the poor are to blame for being poor, the political disconnect of those poor who don’t vote and the selfishness that it produces in those who do vote are all major wins for the neoliberal agenda. None of the political parties (other than NZ First) are openly suggesting political economic push back against neoliberalism. The political economic structure that has robbed NZ of so much of its value is still the dominant force, if Labour + NZ First + Green are to make any traction as a Government, serious push back must occur.”
describes THE core problem and it explains the very real possibility that a Greens& NZF can construct a workable coalition with Labour.
The impediments to any such coalition , lie ,not between Greens& NZF , but the neo-libs within the Labour hierarchy.
As you astutely point out ,
“A total 7 seat sweep of the Maori electorates on top of an incredible pumping up of the Party vote for Labour by Maori voters in the Maori electorates and the General seats marks Willie Jackson out as front bench material. The Maori faction within the Labour Party is now the largest faction but most importantly, Willie Jackson’s close personal relationship with Winston means he is the nervous system connection between Labour and NZ First that Jacinda will need to make a Labour led Government work.”
My hope is that the Maori faction prevails over the “Drys” and the great potential of a progressive and intelligent Cabinet drawn from the 3 coalition parties results.
This sends the clearest message to the “what’s in it for me” brigade that there is another way.
This is worth a read on DSS [daylight saving sunday]
“The Electoral Commission estimate is that there are 384,072 special votes, which is around 15% of the total.”
It seems to me it all boiled down to the “Have’s” vs the “Have Not’s”. While they exist in almost equal measure, really only one party represents the former (not even the “Have’s” like ACT) – which is why we got the result that we got. National only seem to dominate the political landscape simply because the “political right” isn’t split.
Nitrium,
“The haves” include those who
1) reasonably expect to “have”, to those
2) who deludedly imagine they will “have”, plus
3) think they will “have not” if the other group get in.
Plus, not all the “have nots” vote.
Yes exactly, especially point 3 which has infected my brother’s mind. By “Have Nots” I mean the “not” as being a house, a job, or a living wage (or combination thereof). The “Haves” often don’t even want anyone beside themselves to get those things for risk of them seeming “ordinary”(?), i.e. they have a superiority complex.
Yes Martyn,
Well said there,
“to be where we are with Labour + Greens + NZ First being the majority, that’s a major victory.”
It will be interesting to see when the new labour Lead government get to the overnment books, will they find a (real) $11.7 billion hole??????
More interesting will be this situtation here;
It could be that National were hiding lots of secret holes/”deficits” in there .
So I would not be surprised what labours four independant “economists ” find in the “Government books” when jacinda gives them an oportunity after Labour’s own financial experts go through them first eh?
Interesting times as is the labour/NZ First pledge to inspect the Pike river mine recovery, that they also find National errors that were made to protect our faleln workers there.
Lots of blame may sink this toxic National Government as there past finally catches up with them.
If I was a senior national cabinet minister I to would now be considering my future in Hawaii or some other hiding pace for disgraced National politicians.
[Comment declined for publication – trolling. As a guest, you are invited to participate in debate “W Austin”. As a guest, you are expected to address the issues, not make snide remarks at the host and other contributors. – ScarletMod]
I’m very sad that Hone won’t be back. Another revealing statement about the devastating mindset of this country, including the Labour party’s.
I totally agree.
Hone was the only person in parliament who spoke honestly. Plus his essential character is pro poor.
Why the hell Labour felt the need to nobble (look it up) him is beyond me and shows yet again that Labour are not the party of the workers or the poor.
Shitty, shitty politics…
I felt that same sense of heartbreak last time.
But what do you expect from this shitty system. Of course they would do all they could to “nobble” him – someone who was a true advocate for the poor and disenfranchised and therefore a real threat to their status quo.
Just got to think that there’s more to our lives than this political machine. Hone will keep working outside of the system, let’s hope that a difference can be made outside also. Including by us!
How can you expect Jacinda to win when she’s sent out to campaign without an alternative budget?
Grant Robertson is to blame for this – it was his job to assemble a detailed alternative budget that showed how a Labour government would achieve its objectives.
Plain Lazy!
Agreed
It would be at once naive and grasping at straws to try and suggest that the same political party that produced Sir Michael Cullen would be unable to run the NZ efficiently , and , – far more importantly , – benefiting ALL sectors of society , … rather than just a small , select , elite.
1000% WK.
Truth in those words abound.
First time poster here – but Labour completely decimated the economy last time they were in charge didn’t they? I seem to remember 10% interest rates, lack of money circulation, high tax and then the economy slamming into the wall resulting in high unemployment and $10 billion in borrowings required just to cover their final budget in 08-09? Then it was discovered that the ACC and SOE books had been fiddled to hide massive debt in there?
National inherited an 18 billion dollar public debt, the current public debt is somewhere in the 90 billions. National claims the credit for sound fiscal management, but without the Labour governments efforts in retiring debt National would have needed to borrow a lot more than the 70 billion,which National has quietly acknowledged.
National has sorted out the ACC to make a profit by refusing to pay out legitimate claims,some 90,000 claims declined.
Most economic downturns are generally generated from external forces,such as the USA financial crisis. for example, if the Chinese stopped their citizens from investing in foreign countries, how would our property market fair?
The surplus declared this year is only for this year,being an election year. National has advised that for the next,at least 3 years they will be running deficits.Hardly surprising given the tax cuts and the election spending promises.
Historically, National is not noted for making the hard decisions they are quite conservative and their main efforts are directed to retaining power at all costs for the sake of power.
.They are hardly considered progressive or overly concerned as to the social conditions of New Zealanders,they appeared to be unaware of 298,000 kids living below the poverty line,the statistics relating to youth suicide rates only acknowledge by National as a problem a month ago,a housing shortage and yet It is estimated that there are 30,000 vacant homes in the Auckland area .
It all adds up, National is not an inclusive political party and seems to believe for there to be winners there must be losers,a Darwinian concept of survival of the fittest or will connected.
“Winston now has the most important choice of his entire political life in front of him, prop up a corrupt, lying National Party that is effectively a front for Chinese business interests or legitimise a Jacinda led Government who can turn his macro economic dreams about tapping the Super fund for regional infrastructure into a reality.”
Winston’s speech last night indicated his disgust at the “foreign” influence on out elections, the underhandedness and deceit and there will be payback. One can only assume which party he was talking about?
Yes ,I believe Winston is disgusted at the depths National will stoop to in order to retain power.Winston’s comments regarding an “elite sector” could be telling.
Either way National has made a lot of promises and if they don’t deliver then three year time they’re gone.
+ barry,
Winston has on his posters during the election, “Have you had enough”?
Say’s it all eh?
He never will trust national again so;
National = hung parliament. Until Labour with NZ first and greens form the new government.
Bye bye nasty nats’.
Let’s hope.Winston can be bold.
If I was Winston I would enjoy advising the Nats that we are fundamentally poles apart .National is in a bit of a straight jacket,their obsession for power confines them to slightly right of centre any thoughts of a lurch to the right will see them in opposition.
If the Nats and Winston form a coalition it may will be confined to impotence due to the a vast number of ideological differences and bad blood.
Wouldn’t it be fairer to say that a National/NZ First combination is overwhelming proof that NZ doesn’t want Labour, Greens, ToP, Mana, Internet or Maori involved with the decision making for the next 3 years?
If by NZ you mean the public, people vote for parties not coalitions. The 1996 and 1999 elections are evidence of disapproval by those who voted NZ First who then punished them for going in coalition with National.
Winston has consistently railed against neoliberalism, asset sales, foreign land sales throughout the period of it’s reign. This will be his last hurrah!
His last chance to do something to push back. Doing a deal with national will provide no chance of that, at best a temporary slowing of some details.
I don’t think Jacinda has given the fundamental structure of the present economic system that has created the social ills she wants to cure the thought she will have to if she is to cure them. She is of a generation for whom TINA applies having no experience of the alternative we once worked under. Her caucus is mostly proponents of TINA too.
Winston couldn’t possibly not relish the possibility of working with her if it is philosophically possible , and I think the two of them might turn out to be closer in their outlook than Jacinda is with most of her party caucus.
I think Winston could be a coach and a foil to the neolibs behind her that enables her to do more toward taking NZ back for New Zealanders than she would be able to without him. And a foil for the perception of her lack of experience. Thats a criticism that can’t be levelled at Winston.
It isn’t a prediction, but they might get on like a house on fire.
When it was Andrew Little he would have been dealing with I thought Winny would get more out of national in negotiation than labour , as I felt that Andrew would lack the confidence of risking the perception of being outplayed in negotiation, whereas the nats would have more confidence in dealing with him. The dynamics of making a working arrangement with Jacinda will be entirely different. It could really work for both of them and us.
D J S
100000% David Stone we agree with this depiction of Winston’s wish to turn NZ around to thrive for kiwis not foriegners.
His speeches we attended siad this repeatedly, he will not go with national, as they are now clearly a “liability” no one is wanting to “hitch their train up to” even Winston who is pledging to restrore all regional rail services before he retires while we see National are actively “railing’ to close down most regional rail freight/passenger services such as East coast and northland rail for beginners.
Check out NZ first Transport Policy on rail called “Rail’s of National importance” or (RONI)
Absolutely magnificent analysis of the potential working situation between Jacinda Adern and Winston Peters.
It would be a formidable combination.
A combination that would send shivers down the spine of those who would see their elitist grip on power shattered before their very own eyes. It would at once provide the springboard for Jacinda Aderns career as leader of the Labour party and P M, and it would also provide Peters a truly magnificent legacy as our senior statesman who put paid to decades of inequality and elitism , as well as setting his party up well into the future after he retired.
It truly would be Winston’s finest hour.
Yes WK,
The right wing nuts are now spooky and are all freaking out at the ‘prospect’ of Winston comming for them now.
I just saw right wing trumpeter Duncan Garner on “the AM show” freacking out saying two days after he condemned Bill English now sayinng he is one of the best PM’s in modern times????
Winston has a media policy linned up to introduce to take back the public media and rid all the rouge media pundits, so it is sorely needed since I have now turned off TV and listen to RNZ only when John Campbell is on his show until when Winston returns our media to credibility again.
It’s impossible to compare the two governments because of the totally different circumstances they governed under. Cullen was in charge during a relative smooth period in the global economy but English took over after the 2008 GFC and Canterbury earthquake.
Unlike the Tories in the UK, there was no ‘austerity’ policy here and a lot of money was thrown at (much needed) infrastructure to keep the economy moving. So today as well as the chch rebuild we have a ring road around the north of Auckland, Waterview tunnel and many other improvements.
Forgetting tribal politics for a moment, the reality is that National took over from the Clark government and maintained nearly all of their policies – pretty much ‘business as usual’ in fact.
You know you speak a lot of crap.
National increased its vote.
It got 46% of the vote.
The left got 41%
NZF is not left or right.
We will find out which way he leans sometime before Christmas.
You said and the left that the early voting would go to the left but that didn’t happen.
So special votes if you are looking at them for hope well so far your predictions haven’t been that great.
Just as a note can’t write on whale oil because I’ve been banned for criticising him.
National increased its vote.
Actually, that’s not true.
In 2014, National gained 47.04% of the Party Vote – 1,131,501 party votes.
This time, the Electoral Commission’s preliminary results put the Nats at 46.0% – 998,813 party votes. That’s a drop of 132,688 votes. So not only has National lost it’s coalition partners (with ACT barely holding on) – but their own support has been eroded.
As for Special Votes, after Special Votes were counted in 2014, National lost one MP and the Green gained a 14th MP. Special Votes favour the Left.
That’s what I like about this Frank kid ,… he does his homework.
You better make sure you’ve got you’re facts straight before you go picking a squabble with him L00L !
🙂
Look who’s talking crap,go back to whale oil / National’s black ops propagandist and talk crap together.
JIMC47 = talking crap.
JIMC47
We don’t know yet if the early voting went to the left or not. If it represents the new voters who registered when they early voted which seems probable , then those votes will be in the specials.There could be 200 000 votes there easily for the left.
D J S
And I’m still trying to find out which senior Nat the lawyers got people to shut up about and why.
In an environment of ‘anything goes’ even what doesn’t get to go is controlled by those who have the mantra and ‘anything goes’ and practise it to the nth degree.
MMP’s flaws now all too obvious – when Labour voters in Epsom need to vote National to achieve their best intentions the system is a problem.
TOP four times as many party votes as ACT – but not represented.
Wasted votes redistributed to other parties i.e. your vote goes to parties you didn’t vote for.
It’s time for STV.
Or lower the 5% threshold.
Yes!
There were parties I wanted to vote for yet I had only one vote.
And I want to know why we can’t vote for all the candidates. (National might have some good candidates worth voting for – even now, nine years on.)
Yet we are plagued with lists. The sort of people who get the graveyard shift to waffle for five minutes until the end of the sitting day. Disconnected from constituents.
We also have to shift people from the ‘winners and losers’ mindset. People brought up on sporting victories are seriously discomposed when there isn’t a ‘clear winner’ and they can’t raise a can to Our Team. That stance shows itself all through present society. ‘Someone’s gotta lose! Losers!’
Whatever happened to interdependence and co-operation? We need it in parliament – instead of the public face of adversarial twaddle.
Our Fonterra in heaven, hallowed be your name. Your kingdom come. Your will be done, on the farm as it is in the city. Give us this day our daily milk. And forgive us our debts, as we also have forgiven our cows. And do not bring us to the time of trial, but rescue us from the evil Labour party.
Labour are not in Government, yet they are evil?
by
Mathew Hooten
Agree.
The thinkers voted for that way back but the majority gave us MMP.
Neoliberalism:
… ” The cultural mythologies that the poor are to blame for being poor, the political disconnect of those poor who don’t vote and the selfishness that it produces in those who do vote are all major wins for the neoliberal agenda. None of the political parties (other than NZ First) are openly suggesting political economic push back against neoliberalism. The political economic structure that has robbed NZ of so much of its value is still the dominant force, if Labour + NZ First + Green are to make any traction as a Government, serious push back must occur ”
Brilliant.
This for me is the number one concern. An interesting part of Winston Peters speech on election night contains this segment:
… ” We don’t like extremists, – we believe in laws and policy’s that support the mass majority of New Zealanders , and not just a small elite ,… who may have gotten control of the political system and the financial funding of political party’s , … shows that in this campaign ” …– Winston Peters, 23/9/2017.
While so so many issues are a direct result of this insidious ideology , from homelessness to poverty to deliberately underfunded infrastructure to obscenely low wages and filthy waterways ,… if we demolish this ideology’s grip on NZ’s political processes , … much of the rest will follow suit. Do that ?… and replace it with Keynesianism similar to the Scandinavian country’s ?,… and no one will ever wish to return to this viscous political / economic ideology we call neo liberalism.
This is , and still remains , … the most important keystone objective for a social democracy to achieve. The destruction of the extreme far right wings most cherished weapon against a healthy democracy.
These thicko commentators and National sure have a weird and delusional way of interpreting figures ….
If the ‘right bloc’ get 46% of a vote it is any thing but a victory…..
What it actually means is that 54% of people do not want you…get the Bill…do not want you….end of story.
Claiming moral rights to victory is the biggest load of crap I’ve ever heard but this is the meme that English, Hooton ,Hosking etc are all going to try and push for because it’s the high tide mark for them and they are well short….
They have unjustifiably and arrogantly abused Winston many times over the years and they do now not deserve his support….
You burn your bridges you pay the price….
To be fair Winston has abused everyone – and their dog.
Politics is politics and burning bridges is bad politics.
Do not assume Winnie will pick labour.
For the record I believe he will eventually cut a deal with English and it will be good for Winnie.
I agree with you but would also add that National was the only party to commit an act of PERSONAL dirty politics on Winston. I don’t think he will forget (hell, I wouldn’t!) so will make them pay – all for the better of NZ.
Winston has abused everyone – and their dog in contrast to the Nats who didn’t abuse anyone or the whole country with their dishonesty.
Or, about 94% of the country didn’t want Greens, and 64% of the country didn’t want Labour?
Funny how the gnats voters are so quick to dismiss MMP when they don’t get what they want.
I can’t remember feeling so ashamed of being a Kiwi as I was when I heard the election results. You’ve got to be effing kidding!!!
“You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.” Morpheus to Neo, The Matrix.
Looks like the average dumb-arse Kiwi wants to stay with the ‘Blue Pill’ and believe whatever. And just how will they feel when their preceived reallity comes crashing down, as it surely will?
‘Somehow, “I told you so,” just doesn’t quite say it.’ -I, Robot.
BRILLIANT ! WANAFLI
I had hoped for a stronger showing for Greens and also Labour, and hence I am disappointed, especially since the Greens did not even get six percent (so far, as special votes still need to be counted).
Those that think a Labour – NZ First – Greens alliance could govern, I have some doubt about this playing out well. The Greens will not get much say in such an arrangement or coalition, and Winston and his buddies will try to get it their way, knowing the other two need them.
Perhaps it is better to continue fighting the Nats from opposition, let NZ First bleed to death while in bed with the Nats, and then get a good win in 2020, which may lead to at least two or even three terms under Labour from then.
If Labour forms a government now and the Nats end in opposition, they may only get one term, as not that much may be achieved with NZ First in the mix, and that will disappoint many voters. After that the Nats may be back with a vengeance and carry on from where they let off now.
The poor are likely to stay poor under National and NZ First, some small improvements may be made, but overall, not that much would change. Housing and infrastructure will remain major challenges, and those on benefits will not have much to hope for, they may only temporarily if Labour gets the lead in a government, for three years, I presume.
It is going to be a hoot this next Nasty Natz- NZF coalition government.
Winners (short term): banks, corporations and opportunists.
Losers: everyone -as Peak Oil takes its inevitable toll, the environment that makes life-as-we-know-it possible collapses, and as the Ponzi financial system collapses. Not if but when.
The Blue Dragons aren’t interested in National, they are interested in power and how they can manipulate it. Expect them to slip away from National and move to the left if a left wing government gets in to power.
What’s our “caretaker govt” doing with secretive push for TPPA in the background?
Given their whole campaign was based on demonstrable lies (says a lot about the intelligence of Natz voters unfortunately), why would we trust them to obey the conventions around the caretaker role in this post-electoral negotiation period??
TPPA is a weapon of mass destruction. And the muppet Todd McClay has been playing with the remote control.
Another issue…
The self interest of business outweighs the interest of infrastructure, and social investment.
I enjoyed that Martin and respect what I’m sure is your vastly superior understanding of this topic than myself. Having said that, question; you say “None of the political parties (other than NZ First) are openly suggesting political economic push back against neoliberalism”. I thought TOP were strongly suggesting that, actually I thought I understood GM explaining that folks are mistakenly thinking that this neoliberalism is capitalism (& therefore good for us) where-as it isn’t proper capitalism at all. Would be interested to hear your beliefs around this?
The learning curve was to great. Shortterm actions multiplied by time equal your longterm accomplishments – Chris Widener
TOP voters definitely dismiss economics but understand weed ok. Personally I tried to dispel the myth of the weed rush to the Greens but they still spent massive amounts of resources chasing triple digit electoral votes that crashed there party vote. TOP just couldn’t Buck the trend either. Got mad. Then payed the price.
Hitting people over the head with information doesn’t help. Even though I do like to show people where they went wrong. Just got to follow it up with ways of making money that dosnt smash wages, unions and home ownership rates.
How is it a vote for change when National received far more of the party vote than Labour? The Greens and NZF both diminished their party votes. we may still have crazy MMP but people are voting as though its FPP.
Go National, they have the moral mandate.Kiwis on the whole are not stupid.
The small parties are just about gone, says it all really about tails wagging dogs, and the public being ed up with that. Go Winston, crown the comeback Kid, he is a great PM.
Because if you add up Green + Labour + NZ First it is greater than National + ACT – are you right wingers so averse to math that you refuse to see it?
Hardly a surprise Martyn, given they support Joyce and we now know his lack of financial acumen( 1+1= 11 billion)
“The moral mandate”
English
Bridges
Collins
Coleman
Bennett
Carter and
Joyce
Do not come on this site and talk morals, when you support the above people, whom have none!
If maori had voted labour for their party vote and maori in their electorate I.e maori party win all maori electorates, would this give 7 ‘extra’ seats in parliament and enabled a labour/green/maori coalition? Or would the over hang reduce the percentage of seats allocated to other parties?
How true that last statement …………..That nearly half of voters in this country voted in favour of poverty, pollution and ruthless exploitation,plus Lying right down the camera ……people need to just read it again and again and take that statement in again
“Its not he who votes that counts, but he who counts the votes ”
Done my own polls and these media numbers just don’t add up.
As Te Ururoa said that Bill English was a good prime minister it’s more likely to have turn out as a National/maori/act govt.
Yes Cag our people knew the Maori party would once gain prop up the gnats and this is why him and fox had to go.
Why cry te ururoa I didn’t see him crying for the many NZers suffering. Is he upset he no longer has a nice salary and a bmw well I have no pity for him and fox based on the interviews yesterday they still don’t get it we (Maori ) wanted a change. I am immensely proud of our people they finally saw through the maori parties façade.
Now despite all the bias media and I saw the glee on our journalist faces of both TV 1 and 3 we still have a very good chance to getting rid of these liars and crooks. These are the people that helped try to take Winstone out. Now just like the polls predicted he is the king maker.
If someone took $170,000 plus salary plus perks off me, I’d be crying for a year!
Can someone please answer this question? I’ve wondered this myself
you forget that national has been the maori party fundraiser for 9 long years in exchange they got a subservient coalition partner as plan B
All very true Bomber but the one that particularly sticks in my craw and speaks to the rest of the world is your concluding paragraph.
That nearly half of voters in this country voted in favour of poverty, pollution and ruthless exploitation makes me not want to live here anymore. Kiwis are NOT the nice people they think they are.
Is that really how you want to be seen?
+1
“Kiwis are NOT the nice people they think they are.”
+1
A National supporter suggested, vote for National and donate your tax cut to to the Salvation Army, what a weird and contorted social logic Kiwi’s have.
Are we privatizing Govermental social responsibilities,It certainly looks that way with social housing.
Feels like we’ve all fallen down a rabbit hole and the mad hatter has the treasury bench.
You’re bl’min right there. But then, ‘Kiwi’s’ apart from being flea ridden birds living down holes and feeding on insects; might be an apt description, as Syd Jackson use to say. But did you know that a few years ago, a question on whether or not NZ should re-introduce the ‘Death Penalty’, came up. The response from those surveyed, was similar to the views on Capital Punishment in Texas. That’s a big thumbs down for your average Kiwi Joe and Jane in the street; brought up on a steady diet of Yankee Corporate warmedia and US TV violence as entertainment. That’s what happens when you live in a ‘dumbed down society.’
Yea I can believe it,,I’m astounded at times as to the lack of progress made.We have a significant sector of conservative rednecks that are a massive hand brake on New Zealand social and economic development.
I watched the utube Hollow men by Nicky Hager today ,very depressing. I guess being from an agrarian society I should accept being farmed,is anything real and true in this country.
Actually, it was not half. It was half of the people who bothered to vote…and that was about 36% of the population that was eligible to vote. Once again, about 23% of the population did not even bother to vote.
Thanks for that – that’s what I’ve been thinking. I’ve been shocked that even the children of my own siblings haven’t enrolled (cos they didn’t get around to it!) – won’t be a problem next time though as I’m kicking their butts.
One of mine didn’t vote,I think he might be right leaning.I thanked him for abstaining.
He was puzzled as to why I would get a a $1,000 dollar tax cut as I don’t have a need, I begged to differ I’m spending mine on a weekend trip to Aussie for a ” All you can eat sea food ” buffet.
Targeted tax cuts what a laugh,he wasn’t amused ,me being a greedy baby boomer .
You are emphasising what needs to be emphasised:
“The most terrifying part of the result is that 46% of NZ’s voters support more homelessness, more poisoned rivers, more property speculation, less mental health funding, more experiments in education, no infrastructure investment, more NZers in prisons and 300000 kids in poverty in return for $20 extra a week and half a dozen more bloody roads!”
Yesterdays vote was NOT a progressive one, NOT a success for progressives, NOT at all, it is a depressing result.
I followed the reporting on TV1, on Newshub and TV3, also on Maori TV, RNZ and here, which was a bit lacking I feel. I had hoped for a pleasant surprise, where Labour and Greens would have gained more votes, ideally even beating the Nats. I was extremely disappointed though, and as it was forecast, Winston Peters and NZ First have ended up as Queen or King makers.
Instead of being able to celebrate something, I ended up drowning my sorrow and disappointment. When vote counting started, and after about one percent were counted, Labour was even close to forty percent, but soon that was decimated, then going as low as even 35 percent, last close to 36 percent. The greatest disappointment was the result for the Greens. I had hoped, even expected, that they would at least get seven to eight percent of the vote, but the end result has them just over the five percent threshold now.
That is after 85 percent of votes counted, so some percentages and indeed seats may yet go to Labour and even the Greens, after counting special votes. But it will hardly bring Labour and Greens close to governing alone, and any coalition or supply and support agreement with NZ First will NOT bring the needed progressive kind of government we hoped for.
NZ First will insist on NO water tax on farmers, only wanting royalties on bottled water for exports. They will insist on a referendum on the Maori seats, they will also want to do things that helps NZ business, lower taxes for them that is. In other areas they are not so clear to check out, but at least they will insist on reducing immigration, which I consider one plus at least.
The Greens are the smallest and weakest partner in such an arrangement, if it should eventuate, and will have little input in what the new government will do, they can only appreciate that Jacinda Ardern and Labour have adopted some Greens policy, but that will likely not be what Winston will support.
It should seriously be considered to stay in opposition, as that will enable Labour to let new MPs get the grip of the job and policy matters, and to prepare for an even greater battle in 2020. The Greens would also better stay in opposition, as they could as a weak link in a fragile coalition with NZ First and Labour lose appeal to many and be out of Parliament in 2020, as punishment. Green voters will not settle for a diluted Greens policy that has little mention in a coalition government’s goals.
Only Winston can smile and celebrate, he can pick and choose now, and force any partner, Nats or Labour and others, to agree to some core policy he highlighted. Let us not forget, NZ First also like to appear to be tough on crime, and law and order, and they do not offer much hope for those on benefits, as they want to bring in work for the dole and stuff.
I think those now contemplating a Labour, NZ First and Greens government are overly hopeful and idealistic. It will most likely mean a one term Labour led government, and Jacinda may better get more experience of being in charge for another three years.
The Nats will in any case bring in increased Accommodation Supplement and some tax relief also for low earners, if they stay in government, and Winston will push for them to also do other stuff, that helps those less fortunate, e.g. a bigger increase in the minimum wage and so.
Hence, I am not happy about all this what we have now, even if it looks a bit better on 7 October. We will have more of the usual, with some moderate improvements here and there. Perhaps let the Nats run the country into more difficult times, then people, also those that have voted Nats, may finally realise, there needs to be a firm change in 2020.
… ” NZ First will insist on NO water tax on farmers, only wanting royalties on bottled water for exports. They will insist on a referendum on the Maori seats, they will also want to do things that helps NZ business, lower taxes for them that is. In other areas they are not so clear to check out, but at least they will insist on reducing immigration, which I consider one plus at least ” …
The real culprits, … those farming establishments not owned by New Zealanders , even those that are ,… have been served their writs. They are now well aware the spotlight is on them. This works into the hands of the Greens , and even of NZ First regards foreign investment and immigration. The party’s over in that sector.
They have had the spotlight turned on them.
As for Chinese owned farms using NZ as a base for soft power, … all eyes will be turned towards those out – of – the – public – eye places where they have been conducting their clandestine experiments…
As will be certain National MP’s who are intimately connected with offshore Chinese business interest regarding bottled water , – and the failure of this govt in not only charging royalty’s , – but taxation on foreign multinationals. Labour has already said it will go after these freeloaders.
As for the Maori seats ?
It could be argued that the nationwide referendum has already occurred regarding the abolition of the Maori seats , – and met with a resounding NO.
Those with most to lose , – have already voted. The Maori people themselves. And not only that ,… they have endorsed Labour as the trustee’s of those seats. It would be a very bold National govt that would seek to make a future issue of that. And if NZ First went with Labour / Greens? ,… it would not be worth raising . Remember also Peters bottom line was a ‘ referendum’ on whether to retain the Maori seats , with the Maori community ultimately left to decide. Well ,… they have decided, therefore it is no longer an issue.
Only a fool would now seek to keep raising the issue.
At the final reel?
The Left will win, no matter if NZ First goes with National of Labour. If anything , this election has signaled a real desire for change.
Bloody well thought WK.
As to the referendum, I heard Winston saying to a reporter yesterday that the Maori seats issue was only a part of a referemdum that he had endorsed from his party and it was definately not his saying he does not want them, he said clearly that it would be up to the maori themselves ifg they want to keep the seats and he said he was always clear about this, but said the media was painting it as his not wanting the seats.
I would find it resonable to agree that the media would be keen to ‘frame’ Winston for any ‘contentious’ issues theybn could find just to appease their puppet-masters.
Good clear analysis Martyn , thankyou.
IMO
“The cultural mythologies that the poor are to blame for being poor, the political disconnect of those poor who don’t vote and the selfishness that it produces in those who do vote are all major wins for the neoliberal agenda. None of the political parties (other than NZ First) are openly suggesting political economic push back against neoliberalism. The political economic structure that has robbed NZ of so much of its value is still the dominant force, if Labour + NZ First + Green are to make any traction as a Government, serious push back must occur.”
describes THE core problem and it explains the very real possibility that a Greens& NZF can construct a workable coalition with Labour.
The impediments to any such coalition , lie ,not between Greens& NZF , but the neo-libs within the Labour hierarchy.
As you astutely point out ,
“A total 7 seat sweep of the Maori electorates on top of an incredible pumping up of the Party vote for Labour by Maori voters in the Maori electorates and the General seats marks Willie Jackson out as front bench material. The Maori faction within the Labour Party is now the largest faction but most importantly, Willie Jackson’s close personal relationship with Winston means he is the nervous system connection between Labour and NZ First that Jacinda will need to make a Labour led Government work.”
My hope is that the Maori faction prevails over the “Drys” and the great potential of a progressive and intelligent Cabinet drawn from the 3 coalition parties results.
This sends the clearest message to the “what’s in it for me” brigade that there is another way.
This is worth a read on DSS [daylight saving sunday]
“The Electoral Commission estimate is that there are 384,072 special votes, which is around 15% of the total.”
https://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/election-2017-the-special-votes/
It seems to me it all boiled down to the “Have’s” vs the “Have Not’s”. While they exist in almost equal measure, really only one party represents the former (not even the “Have’s” like ACT) – which is why we got the result that we got. National only seem to dominate the political landscape simply because the “political right” isn’t split.
Nitrium,
“The haves” include those who
1) reasonably expect to “have”, to those
2) who deludedly imagine they will “have”, plus
3) think they will “have not” if the other group get in.
Plus, not all the “have nots” vote.
Yes exactly, especially point 3 which has infected my brother’s mind. By “Have Nots” I mean the “not” as being a house, a job, or a living wage (or combination thereof). The “Haves” often don’t even want anyone beside themselves to get those things for risk of them seeming “ordinary”(?), i.e. they have a superiority complex.
Yes Martyn,
Well said there,
It will be interesting to see when the new labour Lead government get to the overnment books, will they find a (real) $11.7 billion hole??????
More interesting will be this situtation here;
It could be that National were hiding lots of secret holes/”deficits” in there .
So I would not be surprised what labours four independant “economists ” find in the “Government books” when jacinda gives them an oportunity after Labour’s own financial experts go through them first eh?
Interesting times as is the labour/NZ First pledge to inspect the Pike river mine recovery, that they also find National errors that were made to protect our faleln workers there.
Lots of blame may sink this toxic National Government as there past finally catches up with them.
If I was a senior national cabinet minister I to would now be considering my future in Hawaii or some other hiding pace for disgraced National politicians.
[Comment declined for publication – trolling. As a guest, you are invited to participate in debate “W Austin”. As a guest, you are expected to address the issues, not make snide remarks at the host and other contributors. – ScarletMod]
I’m very sad that Hone won’t be back. Another revealing statement about the devastating mindset of this country, including the Labour party’s.
I totally agree.
Hone was the only person in parliament who spoke honestly. Plus his essential character is pro poor.
Why the hell Labour felt the need to nobble (look it up) him is beyond me and shows yet again that Labour are not the party of the workers or the poor.
Shitty, shitty politics…
I felt that same sense of heartbreak last time.
But what do you expect from this shitty system. Of course they would do all they could to “nobble” him – someone who was a true advocate for the poor and disenfranchised and therefore a real threat to their status quo.
Just got to think that there’s more to our lives than this political machine. Hone will keep working outside of the system, let’s hope that a difference can be made outside also. Including by us!
How can you expect Jacinda to win when she’s sent out to campaign without an alternative budget?
Grant Robertson is to blame for this – it was his job to assemble a detailed alternative budget that showed how a Labour government would achieve its objectives.
Plain Lazy!
Agreed
It would be at once naive and grasping at straws to try and suggest that the same political party that produced Sir Michael Cullen would be unable to run the NZ efficiently , and , – far more importantly , – benefiting ALL sectors of society , … rather than just a small , select , elite.
1000% WK.
Truth in those words abound.
First time poster here – but Labour completely decimated the economy last time they were in charge didn’t they? I seem to remember 10% interest rates, lack of money circulation, high tax and then the economy slamming into the wall resulting in high unemployment and $10 billion in borrowings required just to cover their final budget in 08-09? Then it was discovered that the ACC and SOE books had been fiddled to hide massive debt in there?
National inherited an 18 billion dollar public debt, the current public debt is somewhere in the 90 billions. National claims the credit for sound fiscal management, but without the Labour governments efforts in retiring debt National would have needed to borrow a lot more than the 70 billion,which National has quietly acknowledged.
National has sorted out the ACC to make a profit by refusing to pay out legitimate claims,some 90,000 claims declined.
Most economic downturns are generally generated from external forces,such as the USA financial crisis. for example, if the Chinese stopped their citizens from investing in foreign countries, how would our property market fair?
The surplus declared this year is only for this year,being an election year. National has advised that for the next,at least 3 years they will be running deficits.Hardly surprising given the tax cuts and the election spending promises.
Historically, National is not noted for making the hard decisions they are quite conservative and their main efforts are directed to retaining power at all costs for the sake of power.
.They are hardly considered progressive or overly concerned as to the social conditions of New Zealanders,they appeared to be unaware of 298,000 kids living below the poverty line,the statistics relating to youth suicide rates only acknowledge by National as a problem a month ago,a housing shortage and yet It is estimated that there are 30,000 vacant homes in the Auckland area .
It all adds up, National is not an inclusive political party and seems to believe for there to be winners there must be losers,a Darwinian concept of survival of the fittest or will connected.
“Winston now has the most important choice of his entire political life in front of him, prop up a corrupt, lying National Party that is effectively a front for Chinese business interests or legitimise a Jacinda led Government who can turn his macro economic dreams about tapping the Super fund for regional infrastructure into a reality.”
Winston’s speech last night indicated his disgust at the “foreign” influence on out elections, the underhandedness and deceit and there will be payback. One can only assume which party he was talking about?
Yes ,I believe Winston is disgusted at the depths National will stoop to in order to retain power.Winston’s comments regarding an “elite sector” could be telling.
Either way National has made a lot of promises and if they don’t deliver then three year time they’re gone.
+ barry,
Winston has on his posters during the election, “Have you had enough”?
Say’s it all eh?
He never will trust national again so;
National = hung parliament. Until Labour with NZ first and greens form the new government.
Bye bye nasty nats’.
Let’s hope.Winston can be bold.
If I was Winston I would enjoy advising the Nats that we are fundamentally poles apart .National is in a bit of a straight jacket,their obsession for power confines them to slightly right of centre any thoughts of a lurch to the right will see them in opposition.
If the Nats and Winston form a coalition it may will be confined to impotence due to the a vast number of ideological differences and bad blood.
Wouldn’t it be fairer to say that a National/NZ First combination is overwhelming proof that NZ doesn’t want Labour, Greens, ToP, Mana, Internet or Maori involved with the decision making for the next 3 years?
If by NZ you mean the public, people vote for parties not coalitions. The 1996 and 1999 elections are evidence of disapproval by those who voted NZ First who then punished them for going in coalition with National.
Winston has consistently railed against neoliberalism, asset sales, foreign land sales throughout the period of it’s reign. This will be his last hurrah!
His last chance to do something to push back. Doing a deal with national will provide no chance of that, at best a temporary slowing of some details.
I don’t think Jacinda has given the fundamental structure of the present economic system that has created the social ills she wants to cure the thought she will have to if she is to cure them. She is of a generation for whom TINA applies having no experience of the alternative we once worked under. Her caucus is mostly proponents of TINA too.
Winston couldn’t possibly not relish the possibility of working with her if it is philosophically possible , and I think the two of them might turn out to be closer in their outlook than Jacinda is with most of her party caucus.
I think Winston could be a coach and a foil to the neolibs behind her that enables her to do more toward taking NZ back for New Zealanders than she would be able to without him. And a foil for the perception of her lack of experience. Thats a criticism that can’t be levelled at Winston.
It isn’t a prediction, but they might get on like a house on fire.
When it was Andrew Little he would have been dealing with I thought Winny would get more out of national in negotiation than labour , as I felt that Andrew would lack the confidence of risking the perception of being outplayed in negotiation, whereas the nats would have more confidence in dealing with him. The dynamics of making a working arrangement with Jacinda will be entirely different. It could really work for both of them and us.
D J S
100000% David Stone we agree with this depiction of Winston’s wish to turn NZ around to thrive for kiwis not foriegners.
His speeches we attended siad this repeatedly, he will not go with national, as they are now clearly a “liability” no one is wanting to “hitch their train up to” even Winston who is pledging to restrore all regional rail services before he retires while we see National are actively “railing’ to close down most regional rail freight/passenger services such as East coast and northland rail for beginners.
Check out NZ first Transport Policy on rail called “Rail’s of National importance” or (RONI)
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/transport
@ DAVID STONE ,
Absolutely magnificent analysis of the potential working situation between Jacinda Adern and Winston Peters.
It would be a formidable combination.
A combination that would send shivers down the spine of those who would see their elitist grip on power shattered before their very own eyes. It would at once provide the springboard for Jacinda Aderns career as leader of the Labour party and P M, and it would also provide Peters a truly magnificent legacy as our senior statesman who put paid to decades of inequality and elitism , as well as setting his party up well into the future after he retired.
It truly would be Winston’s finest hour.
Yes WK,
The right wing nuts are now spooky and are all freaking out at the ‘prospect’ of Winston comming for them now.
I just saw right wing trumpeter Duncan Garner on “the AM show” freacking out saying two days after he condemned Bill English now sayinng he is one of the best PM’s in modern times????
Winston has a media policy linned up to introduce to take back the public media and rid all the rouge media pundits, so it is sorely needed since I have now turned off TV and listen to RNZ only when John Campbell is on his show until when Winston returns our media to credibility again.
It’s impossible to compare the two governments because of the totally different circumstances they governed under. Cullen was in charge during a relative smooth period in the global economy but English took over after the 2008 GFC and Canterbury earthquake.
Unlike the Tories in the UK, there was no ‘austerity’ policy here and a lot of money was thrown at (much needed) infrastructure to keep the economy moving. So today as well as the chch rebuild we have a ring road around the north of Auckland, Waterview tunnel and many other improvements.
Forgetting tribal politics for a moment, the reality is that National took over from the Clark government and maintained nearly all of their policies – pretty much ‘business as usual’ in fact.
You know you speak a lot of crap.
National increased its vote.
It got 46% of the vote.
The left got 41%
NZF is not left or right.
We will find out which way he leans sometime before Christmas.
You said and the left that the early voting would go to the left but that didn’t happen.
So special votes if you are looking at them for hope well so far your predictions haven’t been that great.
Just as a note can’t write on whale oil because I’ve been banned for criticising him.
Actually, that’s not true.
In 2014, National gained 47.04% of the Party Vote – 1,131,501 party votes.
This time, the Electoral Commission’s preliminary results put the Nats at 46.0% – 998,813 party votes. That’s a drop of 132,688 votes. So not only has National lost it’s coalition partners (with ACT barely holding on) – but their own support has been eroded.
As for Special Votes, after Special Votes were counted in 2014, National lost one MP and the Green gained a 14th MP. Special Votes favour the Left.
Ref: http://www.elections.org.nz/news-media/new-zealand-2014-general-election-official-results
Ref: http://www.elections.org.nz/news-media/preliminary-results-2017-general-election
That’s what I like about this Frank kid ,… he does his homework.
You better make sure you’ve got you’re facts straight before you go picking a squabble with him L00L !
🙂
Look who’s talking crap,go back to whale oil / National’s black ops propagandist and talk crap together.
JIMC47 = talking crap.
JIMC47
We don’t know yet if the early voting went to the left or not. If it represents the new voters who registered when they early voted which seems probable , then those votes will be in the specials.There could be 200 000 votes there easily for the left.
D J S
And I’m still trying to find out which senior Nat the lawyers got people to shut up about and why.
In an environment of ‘anything goes’ even what doesn’t get to go is controlled by those who have the mantra and ‘anything goes’ and practise it to the nth degree.
MMP’s flaws now all too obvious – when Labour voters in Epsom need to vote National to achieve their best intentions the system is a problem.
TOP four times as many party votes as ACT – but not represented.
Wasted votes redistributed to other parties i.e. your vote goes to parties you didn’t vote for.
It’s time for STV.
Or lower the 5% threshold.
Yes!
There were parties I wanted to vote for yet I had only one vote.
And I want to know why we can’t vote for all the candidates. (National might have some good candidates worth voting for – even now, nine years on.)
Yet we are plagued with lists. The sort of people who get the graveyard shift to waffle for five minutes until the end of the sitting day. Disconnected from constituents.
We also have to shift people from the ‘winners and losers’ mindset. People brought up on sporting victories are seriously discomposed when there isn’t a ‘clear winner’ and they can’t raise a can to Our Team. That stance shows itself all through present society. ‘Someone’s gotta lose! Losers!’
Whatever happened to interdependence and co-operation? We need it in parliament – instead of the public face of adversarial twaddle.
Our Fonterra in heaven, hallowed be your name. Your kingdom come. Your will be done, on the farm as it is in the city. Give us this day our daily milk. And forgive us our debts, as we also have forgiven our cows. And do not bring us to the time of trial, but rescue us from the evil Labour party.
Labour are not in Government, yet they are evil?
by
Mathew Hooten
Agree.
The thinkers voted for that way back but the majority gave us MMP.
Neoliberalism:
Brilliant.
This for me is the number one concern. An interesting part of Winston Peters speech on election night contains this segment:
While so so many issues are a direct result of this insidious ideology , from homelessness to poverty to deliberately underfunded infrastructure to obscenely low wages and filthy waterways ,… if we demolish this ideology’s grip on NZ’s political processes , … much of the rest will follow suit. Do that ?… and replace it with Keynesianism similar to the Scandinavian country’s ?,… and no one will ever wish to return to this viscous political / economic ideology we call neo liberalism.
This is , and still remains , … the most important keystone objective for a social democracy to achieve. The destruction of the extreme far right wings most cherished weapon against a healthy democracy.
New Right Fight – Who are the New Right?
http://www.newrightfight.co.nz/pageA.html
These thicko commentators and National sure have a weird and delusional way of interpreting figures ….
If the ‘right bloc’ get 46% of a vote it is any thing but a victory…..
What it actually means is that 54% of people do not want you…get the Bill…do not want you….end of story.
Claiming moral rights to victory is the biggest load of crap I’ve ever heard but this is the meme that English, Hooton ,Hosking etc are all going to try and push for because it’s the high tide mark for them and they are well short….
They have unjustifiably and arrogantly abused Winston many times over the years and they do now not deserve his support….
You burn your bridges you pay the price….
To be fair Winston has abused everyone – and their dog.
Politics is politics and burning bridges is bad politics.
Do not assume Winnie will pick labour.
For the record I believe he will eventually cut a deal with English and it will be good for Winnie.
I agree with you but would also add that National was the only party to commit an act of PERSONAL dirty politics on Winston. I don’t think he will forget (hell, I wouldn’t!) so will make them pay – all for the better of NZ.
Winston has abused everyone – and their dog in contrast to the Nats who didn’t abuse anyone or the whole country with their dishonesty.
Or, about 94% of the country didn’t want Greens, and 64% of the country didn’t want Labour?
Funny how the gnats voters are so quick to dismiss MMP when they don’t get what they want.
I can’t remember feeling so ashamed of being a Kiwi as I was when I heard the election results. You’ve got to be effing kidding!!!
“You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.” Morpheus to Neo, The Matrix.
Looks like the average dumb-arse Kiwi wants to stay with the ‘Blue Pill’ and believe whatever. And just how will they feel when their preceived reallity comes crashing down, as it surely will?
‘Somehow, “I told you so,” just doesn’t quite say it.’ -I, Robot.
BRILLIANT ! WANAFLI
I had hoped for a stronger showing for Greens and also Labour, and hence I am disappointed, especially since the Greens did not even get six percent (so far, as special votes still need to be counted).
Those that think a Labour – NZ First – Greens alliance could govern, I have some doubt about this playing out well. The Greens will not get much say in such an arrangement or coalition, and Winston and his buddies will try to get it their way, knowing the other two need them.
Perhaps it is better to continue fighting the Nats from opposition, let NZ First bleed to death while in bed with the Nats, and then get a good win in 2020, which may lead to at least two or even three terms under Labour from then.
If Labour forms a government now and the Nats end in opposition, they may only get one term, as not that much may be achieved with NZ First in the mix, and that will disappoint many voters. After that the Nats may be back with a vengeance and carry on from where they let off now.
The poor are likely to stay poor under National and NZ First, some small improvements may be made, but overall, not that much would change. Housing and infrastructure will remain major challenges, and those on benefits will not have much to hope for, they may only temporarily if Labour gets the lead in a government, for three years, I presume.
It is going to be a hoot this next Nasty Natz- NZF coalition government.
How long will it last ?
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/@politics/2017/09/23/49708/push-pull-government-could-end-in-chaos
Winners (short term): banks, corporations and opportunists.
Losers: everyone -as Peak Oil takes its inevitable toll, the environment that makes life-as-we-know-it possible collapses, and as the Ponzi financial system collapses. Not if but when.
The Blue Dragons aren’t interested in National, they are interested in power and how they can manipulate it. Expect them to slip away from National and move to the left if a left wing government gets in to power.
What’s our “caretaker govt” doing with secretive push for TPPA in the background?
Given their whole campaign was based on demonstrable lies (says a lot about the intelligence of Natz voters unfortunately), why would we trust them to obey the conventions around the caretaker role in this post-electoral negotiation period??
TPPA is a weapon of mass destruction. And the muppet Todd McClay has been playing with the remote control.
Another issue…
The self interest of business outweighs the interest of infrastructure, and social investment.
Sorry forgot the link…
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11925746
I enjoyed that Martin and respect what I’m sure is your vastly superior understanding of this topic than myself. Having said that, question; you say “None of the political parties (other than NZ First) are openly suggesting political economic push back against neoliberalism”. I thought TOP were strongly suggesting that, actually I thought I understood GM explaining that folks are mistakenly thinking that this neoliberalism is capitalism (& therefore good for us) where-as it isn’t proper capitalism at all. Would be interested to hear your beliefs around this?
The learning curve was to great. Shortterm actions multiplied by time equal your longterm accomplishments – Chris Widener
TOP voters definitely dismiss economics but understand weed ok. Personally I tried to dispel the myth of the weed rush to the Greens but they still spent massive amounts of resources chasing triple digit electoral votes that crashed there party vote. TOP just couldn’t Buck the trend either. Got mad. Then payed the price.
Hitting people over the head with information doesn’t help. Even though I do like to show people where they went wrong. Just got to follow it up with ways of making money that dosnt smash wages, unions and home ownership rates.
How is it a vote for change when National received far more of the party vote than Labour? The Greens and NZF both diminished their party votes. we may still have crazy MMP but people are voting as though its FPP.
Go National, they have the moral mandate.Kiwis on the whole are not stupid.
The small parties are just about gone, says it all really about tails wagging dogs, and the public being ed up with that. Go Winston, crown the comeback Kid, he is a great PM.
Because if you add up Green + Labour + NZ First it is greater than National + ACT – are you right wingers so averse to math that you refuse to see it?
Hardly a surprise Martyn, given they support Joyce and we now know his lack of financial acumen( 1+1= 11 billion)
“The moral mandate”
English
Bridges
Collins
Coleman
Bennett
Carter and
Joyce
Do not come on this site and talk morals, when you support the above people, whom have none!
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